(05-05-2023, 09:17 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:

(05-05-2023, 08:42 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: The problem is that you are trying to portray the exception as the rule.  Yes, Pacheco had 830 yards last year.  However, the 10 running backs taken immediately in front of him in the same draft combined for 421 yards. There were 18 running backs picked on Day 3 last year.  Only 3 of them had more than 150 rushing yards.  That's less than 20%.  If you take out the 4th round, it drops to 8.3%.  If you take out the exception of Pacheco, it drops to 0%.

The RB value debate can go back and forth for days with stats to support either "side." 

Total yards gives you an incomplete picture because every team has different variables of usage/committee, different injury scenarios, and different schemes for their run game.

Yards per carry given a baseline/minimum sample size of touches would get you a little closer to seeing how effective a back has been for their offense. But you need to see them all as individual situations to really know who did what. 

Backs taken early by and large have a better chance of working out just like every position. 
But every single season, we have guys pop up out of nowhere that produce fantastic numbers at RB for a number of teams. 

2022 featured big contributions from these backs all drafted in the 4th, drafted later than the fourth, or un-drafted:

Kahlil Herbert
Rhamondre Stevenson
Tyler Algeier
Raheem Mostert 
Jeff Wilson
Pacheco
Ekeler 
Latavius Murray
Jamaal Williams

So - 30% of the league last year got a real boost from a back that wasn't initially a big investment and several from that list are still on cheap rookie deals. 

Each of these guys had at least 4.4 yards per carry ( except Williams at 4.1) and at least 730 yards of production. 
Many of them hit the 1000 yd mark. 

Only one of them was considered a season long bell-cow. Others were committee members or came in after an injury to a starter. But all produced despite their initial draft status or lack thereof. 

Personally - I just hope we have built this room well now and we can press pause next year on spending capital to outfit the position.