(05-05-2023, 04:15 PM)The Real Marty Wrote:

(05-05-2023, 10:49 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: Dude.

They tried to gather more picks in an attempt to use those picks to move back up in the later rounds. Then, no one would trade with them and they were stuck with the picks.

Their initial strategy didn’t work and they had to use more picks in this draft than they intended to.

I know they did not manage to use the extra picks to move up, but to call the whole transaction a failure, when they got the player they would have picked anyway, and got 3 extra picks without losing anything, is way overstating it.  Like I said before, if someone hands me $10, and I intend to use it at the bar, but the bar is closed, have I failed?  Or have I gained $10?

You are not seeing this correctly. 

Let's say you were given your mythical $10 in the form of 10 chips at a casino. Two blue chips and 8 green chips. 

You're permitted to use the blue chips on a game that gives you a 1 in 5 chance of winning a sizable payout. 

The other 8 chips (green chips) must be used to play a game that gives you a 1 in 25 chance of a similar payout. 

However - you're informed that among the patrons of the casino there are likely persons willing to give you another blue chip in exchange for three of your green chips. You just need to find them. It would behoove you to improve your odds of a win by finding one of those patrons who likes to roll the dice. 

Or look at it this way -
$10 dollars spent on more a worthy investment opposed to $10 spent on a lesser product in greater quantity. 

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Now - departing from this analogy - let's just have a little reminder that we can't just add 13 rookies to our roster beyond August 29. We're going to have to release some of them before we really get a chance to know their true potential.  So wouldn't it make more sense to have one higher rated prospect + five lower rated prospects instead of 8 lower rated prospects?

Also - I think "calling the whole transaction a failure" may not be an accurate way to describe fans descriptions here regarding the glut of late picks. And speak for yourself with this "we judge the draft like all-seeing, all knowing gods..." bit.

I'm only talking about basic probability and an admission by our own GM.

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