(05-10-2023, 07:30 PM)OG-JAGFAN Wrote: It is true that success rate does drop per round.  With that said, there are many cases of star even Hall of fame players drafted in those later rounds.  Some greats have even went undrafted.  It really is a crap shoot.  Look how many "can't miss" top 10 draft prospects the Jags have flopped on over the years.  Sometimes you can find great value or just get lucky in the later rounds.

Players like Tom Brady, (6th round), James Harrison, (undrafted) our own Telvin Smith (5th) and many others prove their are unseen diamonds in those later rounds.  I will guarantee that most of these so called *stars in the making* people wanted the Jaguars to take will bust.  Most of the first round will bust.  Yes drafting earlier gives you a better lottery ticket but look how bad the Jaguars have drafted with golden tickets the last decade. I for one am going to wait to judge the draft picks.

This is a good perspective.

The only issue with this year's draft haul (when viewed through this lens) is that we have 8 new guys from rounds 5 through 7.  

As you said, sometimes you find gold in those late round hills. But how quickly do you know what you've got? 
We can't keep these kids around and develop them all. There's just not room on this roster. Most of those guys will be gone on August 29th and if they didn't make their potential evident in those few short months, we'll miss out on any chance to benefit. 

This is just one more reason why getting fewer player from higher rounds beats out a higher # of players from the later rounds IMO.

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