I know that I'm a little late to the party, but I liked this topic.  When it first came up, I wanted to review the 53 man roster before commenting but got a little tied up with other things and forgot to revisit it until now.  I think most people are voting low.  I voted for 9 or more.  First, it's not about who I like.  It's who Baalke likes and he picked these players for a reason.  Second, as some have mentioned, salary could be a consideration.  Many of these late round picks are competing against players in the final year of their deals.  Even if there's little savings this year, Baalke may like having them locked up for four years at a bargain price versus the other player who hits free agency in 2024 and can only be brought back at a higher price.  Third, it's going to be an embarrassment to Baalke if too many of these picks are cut.  I find it surprising that almost half are saying 6 or fewer.  Do people really think he's only going to keep 6 and cut 7?  Can you imagine the negative public reaction?  I'm not saying he's going to keep someone who clearly doesn't deserve it, but if it's close, the benefit of the doubt is going to go to the draft pick.  Bottom roster spots decisions are often close.  

As for the specific players, the first three are locks.  Also, if you look at the history of Jaguars drafts, it's rare for a 4th rounder to not make the 53 man roster.  I believe it has only happened two or three times in our history.  They have to be a real bust not to make the team.  As such, Miller and Lacy make the team.  I then think our two fifth rounders (Abdullah and Johnson) as well as our first sixth rounder (Washington) make the team.  That's 8.  You then just need 1 out of the remaining 5 to make the team and you got your 9.  I know the first 8 aren't locks and maybe there's a surprise cut, but it is also possible that two or even three of the remaining players make the team.

I think one of the DB's has the best chance (probably Braswell).  Both could make it but there's enough players competing for the bottom two roster spots that the odds of the two rookies finishing 1 and 2 isn't probable.

They say Hodges is going to play on the interior.  He basically has to beat out Van Lanen to make the 53 man roster.  That's doable.  This is also one where salary could be a consideration with Van Lanen an RFA next year and UFA the following year.  

Pederson likes his chess pieces and he must see a role for Parish or I don't think Baalke drafts him.  When I look at the 53 man roster, I have a little trouble finding a spot for him, but surprise cuts happen.  Special teams is often big in the bottom roster spots.

Our backups on the defensive line could go in a number of different directions, so I don't love Vohasek's chances, but it's certainly possible.

I say this equates to 9 or more.

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