(03-28-2024, 07:45 AM)Caldrac Wrote:

(03-27-2024, 10:47 PM)HardcoreMoJagFan Wrote: We can argue the merits of the picks, but that chart is dumb.  It tells you nearly nothing.

What do you mean it tells you nothing? It clearly states the percentages and how it's based. From 2011 - 2023, any selections considered premium, in this case, any selections made within the top 100, indicate a philosophy and strategy. 

It's obvious in Baalke's case. A good portion of his decision making favors the LB and RB positions early, with T mixed in there. While other positions such as WR (0.0%) and DT (0.0%) are considered an afterthought. This is a good base to gauge which way Baalke will more than likely lean in the draft next month.

So, when he does something like, pass up on a WR at 17 or a DT at 17 in favor of an OT, EDGE or CB it shouldn't surprise anybody. Or, when he waits until day 3 to select a WR, it shouldn't surprise anybody. It especially shouldn't surprise anybody if he selects another RB in RD3. 

It clearly tells you that...

There's something called sample size.  This chart does not include his tenure in SF as it shows the number of picks made in each box which total up to 12.  This is from the 3 or 4 drafts he's been apart of with the Jaguars.  That's a small sample size to be gleaning anything meaningful from as far as predicting who he will select in the early rounds of this draft.  Also, drafts are not stacked with the same level of talent or equally distributed amongst positions.  It varies year to year.  If this chart clearly tells you anything about him, it's that he isn't necessarily locked into specific positions regardless of how he feels a specific draft is comprised which is not shocking as no GM should approach a draft that way.  Also, it presumes he's the sole decision maker on each pick, which I suspect may not be the case.  Lastly, pickers don't pick in a vacuum.  Teams have needs.  Needs change year to year and influence personnel decisions.  Free agency occurs before the draft and affects those needs year to year as well.

I like and appreciate charts and graphs and have no real problem with the way this is presented, but it doesn't clearly tell you anything about what is likely to happen.  There's not enough info for that.

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