Quote:I get this line of thought, but I would offer the caveat that the ultimate gauge of a player isn't where he is the day he is drafted.  Steve McNair (3rd overall, 1995), Carson Palmer (1st overall, 2003), Aaron Rodgers (24th overall, 2005) and Tom Brady all sat their rookie seasons, and of that group, only Brady was not highly drafted.

 

All of those guys turned out pretty good and worth their draft selection, and certainly proved to be better than Couch, David Carr, Russell, Bradford and Goff.

 

I think it's right to give some QBs time to develop, and Watson certainly needs it.

 

Needing time to develop does and should factor in to the draft status.  It's not an indictment of the player's future.  Like with investments, it's a way to factor in risk.

 

If a player pans out (like Brady, especially Brady since there's a very good argument for him as the greatest of our time, if not all time) but when they do that doesn't erase the fact the risk was higher than others.

 

There's value in Watson later where the risk matches the pick.

 

I don't see him as nearly as good a candidate coming out of college of any of the guys you mentioned aside from Brady.  Brady's situation was particularly a muddled one, given for whatever reason everyone was swooning for Henson and was playing in his false shadow.

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