Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Quote:I agree some coaches and staffs have their limits..and time may prove Gus not up to the task.


But given the inexperience and talent deficiencies remaining on the roster, I don't think we have a true gauge of the ceiling of this staff until next year.

 

I agree 100%.  Not sure why this is a difficult concept for so many to grasp. 

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4.  We rarely attack the middle of the field on passing plays.  I believe it was a couple weeks ago, that this was pointed out...  But basically we use the left or right side of the field and that's it.  We only pass in the middle of the field 10% of the time (if I recall correctly).  We're basically self selecting not to attack an area that could potentially help us get our outside recievers open.

 

 

Just to back up this point- here's us through 14 weeks:

 



 

As a random sample, here's indy:



 

 

The broncos, pats, and even green bay all have % passes to the short middle around 20% or more through all downs.

Quote:Just to back up this point- here's us through 14 weeks:




As a random sample, here's indy:




The broncos, pats, and even green bay all have % passes to the short middle around 20% or more through all downs.

What the charts doesn't indicate though is are these routes just not being ran at all or are they being ran but Bortles just isn't hitting them? I would love for NYC4Jags, if he has the time, to do a quick film study and take an in-depth look at this.

Quote:What the charts doesn't indicate though is are these routes just not being ran at all or are they being ran but Bortles just isn't hitting them? I would love for NYC4Jags, if he has the time, to do a quick film study and take an in-depth look at this.

 

Agreed- they only give you so much. Poor NYC, eventually someone else will have to get game rewind and look into these things too.  

 

I have absolutely nothing to back it up, but my gut is that our RBs don't tend to clear into the center of the field and are usually running to the numbers.  Actually, I feel like our receivers on the whole are pretty bad about improvising after a blown play. Hurns has shown some capability but I can't really remember it happening elsewhere. I could be wrong about that, though.

Quote:Just to back up this point- here's us through 14 weeks:

 



 

As a random sample, here's indy:



 

 

The broncos, pats, and even green bay all have % passes to the short middle around 20% or more through all downs.

 

I'm not sure where you got the percentages, maybe I'm missing something.

 

Jags

1st Down Short middle passes= 18 passes short middle/200 total pass attempts on 1st down = 9%

2nd Down short middle passes= 21/151=13.9%

3rd Down...= 22/173=12.7%

4th Down= 1/8= 12.5%

 

Clots

1st Down= 38/232= 16.4%

2nd Down= 38/202= 18.8%

3rd Down= 26/134= 19.4%

4th Down= 2/8= 12.5%

 

I think your overall point is still valid though.

Quote:I'm not sure where you got the percentages, maybe I'm missing something.

 

Jags

1st Down Short middle passes= 18 passes short middle/200 total pass attempts on 1st down = 9%

2nd Down short middle passes= 21/151=13.9%

3rd Down...= 22/173=12.7%

4th Down= 1/8= 12.5%

 

Clots

1st Down= 38/232= 16.4%

2nd Down= 38/202= 18.8%

3rd Down= 26/134= 19.4%

4th Down= 2/8= 12.5%

 

I think your overall point is still valid though.

I was just looking at short passes; I was trying to isolate passes that would be more dump-off style, but didn't really consider the sheer number of screen plays that would be captured in those stats. Thankfully the point still stands because of the similar number of short passes called between the teams.

Quote:I was just looking at short passes; I was trying to isolate passes that would be more dump-off style, but didn't really consider the sheer number of screen plays that would be captured in those stats. Thankfully the point still stands because of the similar number of short passes called between the teams.

Gotcha...I wasn't attempting to debate the point.  I just didn't know how you did your math.  Thanks for clarifying!  I more than welcome logical, rational discussion much more than those who say "the team will be awesome next year because I know it." lol

 

I've watched the Colts several times this year and it always seems like Luck has an outlet receiver about 5-10 yards right down the middle of the field sitting there wide open all day long.

 

 

According to the pie chart I made, after hours of thought and careful consideration, this team sucks..

Quote:Gotcha...I wasn't attempting to debate the point.  I just didn't know how you did your math.  Thanks for clarifying!  I more than welcome logical, rational discussion much more than those who say "the team will be awesome next year because I know it." lol

 

I've watched the Colts several times this year and it always seems like Luck has an outlet receiver about 5-10 yards right down the middle of the field sitting there wide open all day long.

 

Looks like game rewind has a 7 day free trial. I may check it out if I have some free time this week. 

Quote:

 

According to the pie chart I made, after hours of thought and careful consideration, this team sucks..

Label your dang chart!  What are these "W"s you have? I'm not very familiar with them...

Quote:

 

According to the pie chart I made, after hours of thought and careful consideration, this team sucks..

 

That is awesome!  But could you make one covering the last 2 seasons? lol

Quote:maybe don't have bums blocking for your QB and you might win more games

They actually didn't play that bad. Linder is turning into a stud. JJ was 0 for 9 against Joekel and Wells played pretty well.

Quote:They actually didn't play that bad. Linder is turning into a stud. JJ was 0 for 9 against Joekel and Wells played pretty well.

 

Yes he is!!!

Bradley and Fisch aren't going anywhere

 

Quote:I'm not sure where you got the percentages, maybe I'm missing something.

 

Jags

1st Down Short middle passes= 18 passes short middle/200 total pass attempts on 1st down = 9%

2nd Down short middle passes= 21/151=13.9%

3rd Down...= 22/173=12.7%

4th Down= 1/8= 12.5%

 

Clots

1st Down= 38/232= 16.4%

2nd Down= 38/202= 18.8%

3rd Down= 26/134= 19.4%

4th Down= 2/8= 12.5%

 

I think your overall point is still valid though.

Short routes across the middle that Luck throws aren't primary routes. They are check downs and reads he makes at the line. You are seeing how a more experienced QB and receiving corp make adjustments, not playcalling.

 

Bradley and Fisch aren't going anywhere next year. Babich is the most likely coordinator to get replaced. The defense improved when Gus took over a lot of the coordinating responsibilities from him. It's not a good sign when you get made expendable.

 

The special teams coach could get replaced, but it always seems special teams success is centered more around luck than good coaching. As long as you have good kickers and some players that respond well in chaos, then you will be considered a good special teams coach. If you don't have those types of players available then you are bad. Natural ability and good instincts can't be coached and those two things are responsible for the bulk of special teams success.

Quote:1.  Clearly the ZBS system isn't working.  Yes we have rookies in there.  But the pass protection and run blocking has not gotten better since week 4, and possibly could be argued is getting worse.

 

2.  We have an OC that calls plays that provide no rhythm.  Ex:  Wolverine ran 4-5 times yesterday that takes the ball out of BB5's hands, which impacts his feel for the game.  

    --In addition to that, the Wolverine was stuffed on the first attempt, it should have been obvious to abandon it.

 

3.  We had success in the read option against the Giants and on the first time we ran it yesterday.  We then abandoned it all together.  I believe we ran it 1 (maybe 2) other time(s), and the BB5 gave it to Shoelace who got stuffed on it.

 

4.  We rarely attack the middle of the field on passing plays.  I believe it was a couple weeks ago, that this was pointed out...  But basically we use the left or right side of the field and that's it.  We only pass in the middle of the field 10% of the time (if I recall correctly).  We're basically self selecting not to attack an area that could potentially help us get our outside recievers open.

 

5.  We have 2 large TE's that we rarely utilize.  Yes, Harbor had a gut wrenching drop yesterday, but other than that, he's been reliable in the passing game for the season.  Lewis had some good plays in the 1st half yesterday.  But on average, we only target the TE like 4 times per game.  That's simply not enough.  Good offenses, NFL offenses, target TE's constantly.

 

6.  We rarely have a safety blanket release up the middle.  Yesterday was the first time I saw the RB release up the middle to wait for a check down.  It was Gerhart, and it went for 10+ yards.  Most offenses have a release valve right in front of the QB, if not a TE streaking to get open up the middle.

 

7.  Where's the quick slant?  In situations where we have a bad o-line why not have a slot reciever run a quick slant to get fast yardage?

 

8.  We have a slow RB that we allow to run sweeps at least once a game.  I mean, this is self explanatory.  Any other coach would have abandoned the Gerhart sweep after week 2.  Yet we see it at least once per game..

 

That's just off the top of my head....

 

 

So yes, one may wish to keep the current coach of the offense for the sake of stability.  However, one could also argue that having a stable offense that is not capable of being successful in the NFL is a waste of time. 

First, I want to commend you on the serious effort to answer the question.  Kudos.

 

However...

 

1.This is more of a results based analysis, not a design based analysis.  There have been plenty of teams that have used ZBS that have done a fairly good job protecting the QB.  What is it about this implementation of the ZBS that is flawed such that it leads to more sacks?  Schematically, what is it that other teams do that we don't that leads to better protection?  Does our offense not have certain protections that other teams have?  Are the splits in this offense too wide or not wide enough, and how does that lead to more sacks.  Examples.  Does this team not have hot routes that would enable the QB to be able to get rid of the ball quickly in the event of blitzes that outnumber the protection?  How do you separate/distinguish between the talent based and execution based protection lapses vs. those by design inferiority?  Furthermore, there has been some improvement between week 4 through now.  For instance, in the first four weeks, no Jaguars play even came close to rushing for 100 yards.  After the first four weeks, Denard Robinson actually gave the team a semblance of a running game, even having a couple of 100 yard games.  There have also been no 10 sack games after the Washington game.

 

2 & 3.  That is a playcalling analysis, not necessarily a design analysis.  When we ran the Wolverine against the Giants, we had some success.  It is a version of the wildcat, first implemented by Miami.  It had success for a while.  It's not as though a team is incapable of moving the ball at all with that approach.  What is it about the design of the wolverine, not the actual play call, that leads to failure?  Regarding number three, that actually gives an indication that the design of the play is sound.  By your own analysis, that particular play type worked against the Giants and against the Texans, only the team abandoned the approach against the Texans.  I am looking for analysis on how the design of the offense leads to a lack of success.

 

4.  Is that a function of the design of the offense, or is it a matter of the execution of the offense?  Does the offense typically not send guys over the middle at all, whether or not they actually catch the ball?  Are the middle routes designed such that they cannot defeat coverage in the middle of the field? How? Do the route combinations not create space and viable options over the middle?   Does Marcedes Lewis and Allen Robinson being out extended periods of time impact the frequency of throws over the middle?  How does Bortles impact the distribution of passes thrown across the middle?  As a rookie, does he simply not see open guys across the middle?  Does his ability to make plays outside of the pocket impact the frequency with which he attacks over the middle?  Are the receivers running the routes properly?

 

5.  See four above.  Also, that drop by Harbor was a pass across the deep middle...right?

 

6.  This starts to address the design analysis, but I'm not sold it is by design that this happens, or execution.  Convince me.

 

7. As I recall :

 

    A.  Marqise Lee has had a few big plays over the past few weeks running slants; and

    B.  I recall under JDR, the slant became the bane of the offensive existence on this board.

 

Slants have been a part of this offense.

 

8.  Again, that is a playcalling/personnel issue, not a design issue.  D Robinson-not to mention countless other RBs on countless other teams-have run sweeps with considerable success. 

Quote:Just to back up this point- here's us through 14 weeks:

 



 

As a random sample, here's indy:



 

 

The broncos, pats, and even green bay all have % passes to the short middle around 20% or more through all downs.

 

Taking these charts at face value, this still does not speak to the design of the offense.

 

The basis of comparison involves Bortles, a rookie one the one hand, vs. QBs with 3 years experience (Luck), SIXTEEN (16) years experience in Manning, FOURTEEN (14) years experience in Brady, and TEN (10) years experience in Rodgers.

 

Isn't it possible that, given the disparities of experience between Bortles and these QBs listed above, that Bortles at this stage doesn't see the field and read the defenses as well as the more experienced QBs listed above, and that contributes to the disparities in pass distribution?

 

Furthermore, Luck has Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener at TE.  Manning has Julius Thomas at TE, Brady has Gronkowski, and Rodgers has Quarless at that same position.  The Jaguars' two best TEs have both missed substantial time with injury.  Doesn't that, in addition to the inexperience at QB, also serve to explain over the middle pass distribution?

 

Also, Bortles is throwing primarily to three (3) rookie WRs.  Luck is throwing to one rookie WR and he isn't starting.  Manning is throwing to one rookie WR and he isn't starting.  Rodgers is throwing to one rookie WR (Adams).

 

Simply showing the results of the offense does not speak to design flaw.  There are other factors that contribute to the end results, including experience, situation, etc.

Quote:Just to back up this point- here's us through 14 weeks:

 



 

As a random sample, here's indy:



 

 

The broncos, pats, and even green bay all have % passes to the short middle around 20% or more through all downs.

The Jaguars need to throw deep more often and play to Blake's strengths but the Oline is so bad at pass protection he cant do it.

Quote:

 

According to the pie chart I made, after hours of thought and careful consideration, this team sucks..

That's funny right there...

@Bullseye,

 

I woke up late and have to head to work, so I won't have time to address your points right away...  I think you make some good points that I hopefully can counter-argue...  I think the main thing I would say to you regarding the "middle of the field" is that if the primary read is not in the middle of the field, it should begin to be targeted more often!

 

It's clear as of right now BB5 is a 1 read QB, as most rookies are...  If that's the case, there should be more targets that the first read is in the middle of the field...  

 

I've been watching the last two games focusing on how many routes are being run in the middle, from my subjective/emperical observation (which is not flawless of course) it seems to me that we do not run many routes up the middle just to begin with.  That's why I stated we are self selecting not to attack the section of the field.  Again 10% targets in the middle is not just BB5's throws, but routes---from my observations...

Quote:@Bullseye,

 

I woke up late and have to head to work, so I won't have time to address your points right away...  I think you make some good points that I hopefully can counter-argue...  I think the main thing I would say to you regarding the "middle of the field" is that if the primary read is not in the middle of the field, it should begin to be targeted more often!

 

It's clear as of right now BB5 is a 1 read QB, as most rookies are...  If that's the case, there should be more targets that the first read is in the middle of the field...  

 

I've been watching the last two games focusing on how many routes are being run in the middle, from my subjective/emperical observation (which is not flawless of course) it seems to me that we do not run many routes up the middle just to begin with.  That's why I stated we are self selecting not to attack the section of the field.  Again 10% targets in the middle is not just BB5's throws, but routes---from my observations...

 

BB5 is more than a 1 read QB, the problem is the offense is all very young together and can't site read together.  Their is no rapport for when things break down.  I'm going to 180 myself a bit after the rewind and rewatch.  NFL rewind is nice because they take out the 0 gain type plays so it really eliminates the plays that were commented most in the game day thread.  Without being able to watch the live game, I reacted more to the bad plays then what was done right.

 

The offense had nice flow in the first half with real movement.  Unfortunately they just can't adjust because of youth and inexperience across the board.  I really don't like our offense and I'm not sure the staff is any good but the variables effecting the performance are just way too many.

 

The problem with this rebuild is statistical evidence, eye test evidence and gut feelings all say that it is ground hog day.  The needle just hasn't moved upward for this team.  We are a bottom of the league offense and defense.