I have been reading more and more people talk about how Blackmon is an elite talent, how he may be better than Julio Jones or AJ Green, how he has the ability to be a top 5 WR in the NFL, etc etc.
Is that really the case?
Let's look at it objectively: I will look at which games he got more 70 yards (which would put him over 1000 yards for the year for instance) as his "good games"
14 for 236
7 for 79
7 for 79
6 for 93
in year 1
9 for 136
14 for 190
in year 2..
So a total of 6 good games (the case could be made for 3 really good games and pretty good games) in 20 appearances.
Lets look at his "bad games".... I can define those as games where he got less than 50 yards receiving:
I count 10/20 of his games as "bad" - where he got less than 50 yards receiving.
That leaves 4 games where he was "OK to decent"
4 for 67
6 for 62
6 for 57
6 for 58
6 TDs in 20 games
He was "very good to elite" I would say in 3 games in his entire career here.
He was a nonfactor/bad in 8/20 games in his career here. In FORTY % of the games he played in, he was a non-factor completely, oftentimes despite getting a good number of targets.
At best, Justin Blackmon showed that he has the POTENTIAL to be a pro-bowl caliber WR, if he became consistent.
The reality is that Justin was a good, not great, and inconsistent WR for the Jaguars. Yes, he is missed. Yes, it would be great to have him back and 100% focused. But let's not get it twisted, and let's not feel too bad about ourselves.
And let' stop with the downright embarrassing comparisons of Blackmon to Julio Jones, AJ Green, and the other elite receivers in this league.
He was young tho.. he hasn't even played a full 2 seasons and had nothing at QB, I don't understand the AJ Green comparisions but the dude had top 10 ability for sure, no question about it. You put him in Denver and he takes the #1 spot from DT within a season.
Quote:He was young tho.. he hasn't even played a full 2 seasons and had nothing at QB, I don't understand the AJ Green comparisions but the dude had top 10 ability for sure, no question about it. You put him in Denver and he takes the #1 spot from DT within a season.
I disagree.
Chad Henne and Gabbert made Cecil Shorts a near 1k receiver. If Blackmon had top 10 ability, he would surely be more consistent. he got basically nullified in half the games he played.
Quote:I disagree.
Chad Henne and Gabbert made Cecil Shorts a near 1k receiver. If Blackmon had top 10 ability, he would surely be more consistent. he got basically nullified in half the games he played.
In his rookie year yes, this past year in the limited time he had, he had more yards than any other WR in during that stretch.
Quote:I have been reading more and more people talk about how Blackmon is an elite talent, how he may be better than Julio Jones or AJ Green, how he has the ability to be a top 5 WR in the NFL, etc etc.
Is that really the case?
Let's look at it objectively: I will look at which games he got more 70 yards (which would put him over 1000 yards for the year for instance) as his "good games"
14 for 236
7 for 79
7 for 79
6 for 93
in year 1
9 for 136
14 for 190
in year 2..
So a total of 6 good games (the case could be made for 3 really good games and pretty good games) in 20 appearances.
Lets look at his "bad games".... I can define those as games where he got less than 50 yards receiving:
I count 10/20 of his games as "bad" - where he got less than 50 yards receiving.
That leaves 4 games where he was "OK to decent"
4 for 67
6 for 62
6 for 57
6 for 58
6 TDs in 20 games
He was "very good to elite" I would say in 3 games in his entire career here.
He was a nonfactor/bad in 8/20 games in his career here. In FORTY % of the games he played in, he was a non-factor completely, oftentimes despite getting a good number of targets.
At best, Justin Blackmon showed that he has the POTENTIAL to be a pro-bowl caliber WR, if he became consistent.
The reality is that Justin was a good, not great, and inconsistent WR for the Jaguars. Yes, he is missed. Yes, it would be great to have him back and 100% focused. But let's not get it twisted, and let's not feel too bad about ourselves.
And let' stop with the downright embarrassing comparisons of Blackmon to Julio Jones, AJ Green, and the other elite receivers in this league.
You "don't get it" so hard that it's frustrating for me to even write out a response.
Quote:You "don't get it" so hard that it's frustrating for me to even write out a response.
lol don't be "frustrated" man it's just a forum.
I think he's good - has potential to be very good... but some people make him out to be the next Jerry Rice we're missing out on.
He was dominant in 3 games. Three. Let's not get ahead of ourselves with who we're losing.
Blackmon has the physical tools and ability to be an elite receiver. I don't think anyone has declared that he has achieved this status at this point because he can't stay out of trouble and on the field.
Quote:In his rookie year yes, this past year in the limited time he had, he had more yards than any other WR in during that stretch.
Even in his 2nd year, he played 4 games.
He was very good in 2 games and basically a non-factor in the other 2 games he played.
Let's not pretend that he was this unstoppable force in year 2. His last 2 games left MUCH to be desired, to be frank.
Quote:Blackmon has the physical tools and ability to be an elite receiver. I don't think anyone has declared that he has achieved this status at this point because he can't stay out of trouble and on the field.
Many players have the physical tools and the ability to be elite.
In fact, looking at his measurables, his timed results at the combine and pro day don't indicate Blackmon is elite.
I would say Blackmon is elite with the ball in his hands, yes....
He doesn't have elite hands, elite speed, elite size... and his production certainly indicates that he's nowhere close to elite.
I repeat - I don't want to sound like a basher of him. I'm actually a big fan when he plays. But we've been putting him up into the "elite" conversation with a far too small sample size of him actually producing.
Quote:Even in his 2nd year, he played 4 games.
He was very good in 2 games and basically a non-factor in the other 2 games he played.
Let's not pretend that he was this unstoppable force in year 2. His last 2 games left MUCH to be desired, to be frank.
Yet, he was able to do something in his extremely limited time on the field we haven't seen from a receiver in years. You're dismissing the dominant games. I think that's awfully shortsighted. If he was able to do what he did in such a small window, if he could play a full season, I'm sensing he'd have more good than bad or non-existent performances.
We may never get the opportunity to see this happen, but downplaying what he did accomplish in limited play is noteworthy.
Quote:Yet, he was able to do something in his extremely limited time on the field we haven't seen from a receiver in years. You're dismissing the dominant games. I think that's awfully shortsighted. If he was able to do what he did in such a small window, if he could play a full season, I'm sensing he'd have more good than bad or non-existent performances.
We may never get the opportunity to see this happen, but downplaying what he did accomplish in limited play is noteworthy.
He did play a whole season, in his rookie year.
You can call it downplaying, but I call it putting perspective on the situation.
He's got a knack for getting shut out in games and being very ordinary.
When the matchup is right for him, yes - you can feed him the ball and he'll produce. He hasn't shown that he can be relied on on the field as well as off the field.
Quote:Many players have the physical tools and the ability to be elite.
In fact, looking at his measurables, his timed results at the combine and pro day don't indicate Blackmon is elite.
I would say Blackmon is elite with the ball in his hands, yes....
He doesn't have elite hands, elite speed, elite size... and his production certainly indicates that he's nowhere close to elite.
I repeat - I don't want to sound like a basher of him. I'm actually a big fan when he plays. But we've been putting him up into the "elite" conversation with a far too small sample size of him actually producing.
Combine performance doesn't measure what a player can do on the field when the lights are on. You're more than welcome to lean on that if you feel it supports your argument. There are a lot of great at receivers who didn't wow the world in their shorts.
Jerry Rice ran a 4.71 40.
Jimmy Smith ran a 4.47 40 yard dash.
Justin Blackmon ran a 4.46.
If speed makes a player elite, the 4.37 Matt Jones ran at the combine means Canton is working on his bust soon, right?
Quote:He did play a whole season, in his rookie year.
You can call it downplaying, but I call it putting perspective on the situation.
He's got a knack for getting shut out in games and being very ordinary.
When the matchup is right for him, yes - you can feed him the ball and he'll produce. He hasn't shown that he can be relied on on the field as well as off the field.
Historically, rookies tend to hit a wall at some point as they adjust to the pro game. Like I said, you're being shortsighted.
He had almost half as many yards in year 2 in only 4 games as he did in 16 as a rookie. His arrow was pointing way up. It's not just fans who were looking at him as a possible elite receiver.
Quote:Combine performance doesn't measure what a player can do on the field when the lights are on. You're more than welcome to lean on that if you feel it supports your argument. There are a lot of great at receivers who didn't wow the world in their shorts.
Jerry Rice ran a 4.71 40.
Jimmy Smith ran a 4.47 40 yard dash.
Justin Blackmon ran a 4.46.
If speed makes a player elite, the 4.37 Matt Jones ran at the combine means Canton is working on his bust soon, right?
Show me where I said speed makes a player elite. I'll wait.
What exactly is your argument?
Some players are elite without elite measureables? I would agree with that. (If JB became elite, he would fit into that category)
Some players suck despite elite measurables? Another Duh from the FBT camp.
You said JB has the physical tools of an elite receiver... all objective evidence we have indicates is that his measurables are not elite.
It's besides the point anyway, because he's a good receiver for other reasons.
This is crazy.
Those "bad" games aren't even that bad. A 69-yard game is "bad", but a 70-yard game is "good". Every WR has games like these, but not every WR has Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne as their QBs.
Nobody will really know until if and when he plays a full season.
Quote:Historically, rookies tend to hit a wall at some point as they adjust to the pro game. Like I said, you're being shortsighted.
He had almost half as many yards in year 2 in only 4 games as he did in 16 as a rookie. His arrow was pointing way up. It's not just fans who were looking at him as a possible elite receiver.
Those "good" games came at the end of his rookie season, and they continued into the next season. He was "good" for 5 of his last 7 games. I think the 70-yard games as a measurement is a bit narrow-minded since he played on one of the worst offenses in all of football.
Quote:This is crazy.
Those "bad" games aren't even that bad. A 69-yard game is "bad", but a 70-yard game is "good". Every WR has games like these, but not every WR has Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne as their QBs.
Read it again. The bad games were defined as less than 50 yards..
50 to 69 I labeled as "OK to decent"..
70 and above I rated as good.
Tried to quantify it somehow.
Quote:Many players have the physical tools and the ability to be elite.
In fact, looking at his measurables, his timed results at the combine and pro day don't indicate Blackmon is elite.
Quote:Show me where I said speed makes a player elite. I'll wait.
What exactly is your argument?
Some players are elite without elite measureables? I would agree with that. (If JB became elite, he would fit into that category)
Some players suck despite elite measurables? Another Duh from the FBT camp.
You said JB has the physical tools of an elite receiver... all objective evidence we have indicates is that his measurables are not elite.
It's besides the point anyway, because he's a good receiver for other reasons.
I think my argument is pretty clear. He was a young, developing receiver who was on the verge of a breakout year when he was suspended indefinitely, and he was accomplishing this with Gabbert and Henne feeding him the ball.
Quote:Read it again. The bad games were defined as less than 50 yards..
50 to 70 I labeled as "OK to decent"..
Tried to quantify it somehow.
It still doesn't change how you said he was a non-factor in 8/20 games, and you use that as justification for why we overrate him. Considering that most of those games came at the beginning of his rookie season, it's hard to explain why that should be used as a reason he's overrated since he's had a couple of amazing games and decent production with two bad QBs throwing to him.