Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Knowledgable as he is, you do realize Walter Cherepinsky is just a blogger, right? And I assume you completely ignored or refute the 35 page report I posted earlier which pretty much destroys the value board.

Quote:Knowledgable as he is, you do realize Walter Cherepinsky is just a blogger, right? And I assume you completely ignored or refute the 35 page report I posted earlier which pretty much destroys the value board.

I recall last year in his WR rankings he had D Robinson ranked 8 spots above Ace Sanders.    :teehee:

Quote:Hmmmm..................yeah, you're probably correct since WaltersFootball.com says this about it; "The following chart is used by NFL general managers and coaches when making trades on draft day." I mean why would anyone believe WaltersFootball when we have message board posters who are far superior in knowledge of the inner workings of the football draft?

 

Regards...................the Chiefjag

 

LOL.  I'd love to hear the explanation why 21st to 20th has twice the value of 19th to 18th.............but you heard it on the internet so it's gotta be true, right?

Quote:Hmmmm..................yeah, you're probably correct since WaltersFootball.com says this about it; "The following chart is used by NFL general managers and coaches when making trades on draft day." I mean why would anyone believe WaltersFootball when we have message board posters who are far superior in knowledge of the inner workings of the football draft?


Regards...................the Chiefjag

Are you just now realizing that most teams have throw that chart out the window?

Quote:Are you just now realizing that most teams have throw that chart out the window?

He's still in denial.

Quote:<div>Jacksonville Jaguars @jaguars
We'll be live streaming the Jags Fan Forum w/ HC Bradley & GM Caldwell. Watch it here (http://t.co/RvO4IA5pfy) on Thursday at 6!#JagsForum
 

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NYC, is that for this coming Thursday?!?!? I'm all a-twitter over here if it is!

Quote:NYC, is that for this coming Thursday?!?!? I'm all a-twitter over here if it is!

Yessir. 

 

https://twitter.com/intent/user?screen_name=jaguars

Awwwwwww yeaahhhhhhh.

Quote:http://deadspin.com/study-nfl-teams-have...1378701238

 

Here's your precious draft value board ripped to shreds in a 35 page report done by a professor from the Wharton School of Business which was commissioned by an unnamed NFL team.  Just because you ticked me off.  The value board is a guide.  A tool which has been misused for decades.

Perhaps you didn't read the report, or better yet you read the report with the intent to find a conclusion already embedded in your mind that the value chart is worthless. Not a good way to comprehend a report.


First, Cade Massey's expertise is in psychology and economics. His report focuses on the psychology of drafting which he implies "teams overvalue higher picks in part because they overvalue their own judgment in evaluating players, and that "overconfidence is exacerbated by information."

 

Secondly, because of his focus on economics he says, "the chart is wrong, because it doesn't take into account salaries in a salary cap league. His study looks at "surplus value," or what a player actually gives you compared to what would be expected for his contract worth"

 

Thirdly, in his chart he shows the draft pick as a function of millions of dollars versus "surplus value" which is his designation for performance as a comparison to money. Again the economics of the draft.

 

Fourthly, he uses to value chart himself as a means to conclude "only suckers trade up. Over those 14 years of drafts, they calculated the outcomes of every possible 2-for-1 trade for a first rounder using the Draft Value Chart, and found "overwhelming evidence that a team would do better in the draft by trading down." The team that would have traded down would have gained an average of 5.4 man-starts per season, with roughly the same amount of Pro Bowl appearances, at a cheaper cost."

 

His analysis is more indicative of how GM's are not using the Value Chart correctly since it doesn't include the salaries but that is a narrow interpretation when salaries are not negotiated until after the draft. Furthermore, when GM Richardson is called by GM Tankersly on draft day and given the proposal to trade draft pick X and Y, for his draft picks A and Z, it is a foregone conclusion the draft Value Chart is pulled up on the screen to see the relative balance of the proposal.

 

Consequently, the draft Value Chart is a guide, but to say it has no stock is foolish.

 

Regards....................the Chiefjag

 

 

 

 

I originally said, I don't know how much stock I put into the value board and that I think it depends on the draft.  You made a little dig and 33 almost immediately followed up with a really unnecessary snarky comment in an obvious attempt to suck up to you despite the fact my original statement was fairly benign. 

 

You then go on a diatribe about a report which I already read and posted, pick a few excerpts out and then say in effect:

 ..the chart is not being used correctly by GMs and that it is merely a guide. 

 

The quote of mine you posted at the top of your response says precisely this.

 

So what is your point, Short Bus? 

Quote:I originally said, I don't know how much stock I put into the value board and that I think it depends on the draft.  You made a little dig and 33 almost immediately followed up with a really unnecessary snarky comment in an obvious attempt to suck up to you despite the fact my original statement was fairly benign. 

 

You then go on a diatribe about a report which I already read and posted, pick a few excerpts out and then say in effect:

 ..the chart is not being used correctly by GMs and that it is merely a guide. 

 

The quote of mine you posted at the top of your response says precisely this.

 

So what is your point, Short Bus? 

 

You accused me of this, " And I assume you completely ignored or refute the 35 page report I posted earlier which pretty much destroys the value board."

 

I read the report and pointed out what Massey was really saying, which was not destroying the value board. But if that's what you want to believe then have a good day.

 

Regards...................the Chiefjag

He said it was a misused reference guide.  I said it was a misused reference guide.  You originally took a somewhat linear and militant stance as to the importance of the value board and when I simply said I don't think it's a rigid guide that needs to be interpreted as gospel, you told me my opinion didn't matter since I am not a GM.  Then, after quoting a blogger to support your original stance, you told me it was a misused reference guide.

Hey Chief, still waiting on the explanation why 21st to 20th is worth twice as much as 19th to 18th on the value board.

Quote:Hey Chief, still waiting on the explanation why 21st to 20th is worth twice as much as 19th to 18th on the value board.

 

That is a good question which I don't know. I didn't create the value chart but if I had to offer a guess I would say it might be related to the bottom 12 spots are typically assigned to the playoff teams. In general, the 12 playoff teams would be selecting 21-32.

 

Regards........................the Chiefjag

Quote:That is a good question which I don't know. I didn't create the value chart but if I had to offer a guess I would say it might be related to the bottom 12 spots are typically assigned to the playoff teams. In general, the 12 playoff teams would be selecting 21-32.

 

Regards........................the Chiefjag

Do you accept the premise that the higher the pick, the more desirable it is; therefore the greater the cost of acquiring it?

I appreciate that this slight derail is a valid argument this time of year and I'm sure Thursday we'll see the thread revert to "fan forum" talk. 

 

But - since we're debating this draft trade value chart -   I'd only say that any trade value chart is obviously nothing more than a jumping off point to begin negotiation and not a hard and fast rule.  Every draft presents different variations due to the number of highly valued players at various positions. The one from "Walter" is no different and probably less credible than those drawn up by those actually on the inside looking out as opposed to the opposite.  

Quote:I appreciate that this slight derail is a valid argument this time of year and I'm sure Thursday we'll see the thread revert to "fan forum" talk. 

 

But - since we're debating this draft trade value chart -   I'd only say that any trade value chart is obviously nothing more than a jumping off point to begin negotiation and not a hard and fast rule.  Every draft presents different variations due to the number of highly valued players at various positions. The one from "Walter" is no different and probably less credible than those drawn up by those actually on the inside looking out as opposed to the opposite.  

 

Honestly, I also don't think that chart means much.  I'd agree with the idea of it as a "jumping off" point.  To start a negotiation, you want to have an idea of what you'd like to get.  But every negotiation for any product or service fall back to basic supply / demand at the end of the day. 

 

If you have something of value and only one person comes calling, assuming they're at all savvy, they aren't going to give you your asking price.  If 10 people are calling for the same item, you're going to get a nice premium above what you originally imagined.  If you plan to hold fast to your "ask" in the face of either scenario, you're only hurting yourself.

 

So yeah, that chart actually shouldn't be close to what teams are receiving in real world scenarios. 

Back to the fan forum discussion itself, having attended one of these, I have to say this front office and coaching staff is far more accessible than past regimes.  Caldwell and Bradley have been surprisingly candid in these forums, and have given some decent insight into the way they operate.  I doubt there are many, if any other teams in the league who are willing to give the kind of access fans, and particularly season ticket holders get, to this team.

We are attending tonight. I look forward to hearing what they have to say. I know last year Dave and Gus took folks questions for close to an hour after their presentations. Then Mr. Lamping opened the bar for free cocktails, the real reason I went. :yes: