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Full Version: Needs based drafting-David Caldwell
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Forget NFL.com's grades, Damontre Moore or Larry Warford>Dwayne Gratz...it's really that simple

Quote:Why dont you go by CBS grading scale?  According to them he was projected to go in the 3rd round
 

CBS isn't hired by the NFL.  The NFL hires scouts specifically for the purpose of helping teams out.  NFL has an entire team dedicated to working like a real NFL team does.  Not just an author who gives their own opinion or anything.  

 

C.T.I.A.C.S.Y.K
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
Quote:First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.


Hmmmm... I keep finding myself going back to the "laugh at you" phase.
I don't know whats so hard to understand. The rating system is not a a list ranking them from first to last, its a grade. Imagine you rank all the players 0-10, using tenths. With 300 draftable players ranked like that you have an average at 3 for each rating. I.e. when the pick comes the highest players are 7.9 and one of those players is at a position of need thats who is taken. If all the 7.9 players are at positions that are of no need, and thus don't help the team at all, a player of need is at 7.8 then it just makes more sense to take that player.

Quote:I don't know whats so hard to understand. The rating system is not a a list ranking them from first to last, its a grade. Imagine you rank all the players 0-10, using tenths. With 300 draftable players ranked like that you have an average at 3 for each rating. I.e. when the pick comes the highest players are 7.9 and one of those players is at a position of need thats who is taken. If all the 7.9 players are at positions that are of no need, and thus don't help the team at all, a player of need is at 7.8 then it just makes more sense to take that player.
 

What's so hard to understand is how they grade players. How does a team grade Player A 7.9 and Player B 7.8? Those numbers mean nothing if you don't know their methodology.
Since there isn't a single position that can't be upgraded in one form or another, the need vs. BAP thing really doesn't apply to this team. Every position is a need, basically.

 

To me, much of this thread is just a bunch of butthurt GM wannabes venting that the team didn't pick "their guy"...

 

Goes right back to cheering the name on the front of the jersey, not the back. A lot of so called fans haven't learned the concept yet.

Quote:Wrong.

 

Understand, picks are precious. Picks are assets, not car parts. Picks are converted to player-assets. Draft well and you will maintain the value of the pick which was granted to you. Draft bad and the pick is no longer worth as much. 

 

Maurice Jones-Drew just walked away and Caldwell got nothing back in terms of assets. He completely lost the value of the second round pick.

 

You wonder why we're still not talented? Our GMs fail to understand the basic concepts of assets value.
This may be the single stupidest thing I have read today.

 

Congratulations.
Quote:What's so hard to understand is how they grade players. How does a team grade Player A 7.9 and Player B 7.8? Those numbers mean nothing if you don't know their methodology.
The first thing you need to understand is that grading players is not an exact science.  There is no universal rating system employed by all GM's and the values in each category may vary from one position to another within a given team's "formula".  For example, the value placed on vertical leap or 40 yard dash may be greater for a CB than an O lineman, where a bench-press is more significant.  That's just for the measurables.  Now factor in all the things you can't quantify; character, work ethic, etc. The bottom line is that the evaluation process is, in large part, subjective, which is why no two ranking list are ever the same.
Quote:Forget NFL.com's grades, Damontre Moore or Larry Warford>Dwayne Gratz...it's really that simple
 

This really is true. 
Quote:The first thing you need to understand is that grading players is not an exact science. There is no universal rating system employed by all GM's and the values in each category may vary from one position to another within a given team's "formula". For example, the value placed on vertical leap or 40 yard dash may be greater for a CB than an O lineman, where a bench-press is more significant. That's just for the measurables. Now factor in all the things you can't quantify; character, work ethic, etc. The bottom line is that the evaluation process is, in large part, subjective, which is why no two ranking list are ever the same.
 

I agree a player's position determines the importance of each activity at the combine. The intangibles, however, should apply equally to everyone, regardless of the position he plays.
Quote:Forget NFL.com's grades, Damontre Moore or Larry Warford>Dwayne Gratz...it's really that simple


Warford I'll give you. Moore? No.
Quote:Since there isn't a single position that can't be upgraded in one form or another, the need vs. BAP thing really doesn't apply to this team. Every position is a need, basically.

 

To me, much of this thread is just a bunch of butthurt GM wannabes venting that the team didn't pick "their guy"...

 

Goes right back to cheering the name on the front of the jersey, not the back. A lot of so called fans haven't learned the concept yet.
 

I think that pretty much covers all the bases.  Home run.  It's about as "can't miss" as it gets as long as you're picking in the ballpark.
Dakota is dead wrong here. We can't upgrade left tackle now because we did that last year. We don't need to upgrade the middle linebacker either because he is at the Pro Bowl. And we obviously do not need to upgrade our punter, kicker, or long snapper either. In addition, after picking five defensive backs in the same draft, there is no reason to pick any more this year.

Quote:Dakota is dead wrong here. We can't upgrade left tackle now because we did that last year. We don't need to upgrade the middle linebacker either because he is at the Pro Bowl. And we obviously do not need to upgrade our punter, kicker, or long snapper either. In addition, after picking five defensive backs in the same draft, there is no reason to pick any more this year.
None of which are the best in the league at their respective positions, so like I said before, every position can be upgraded.

 

Try to keep up, there, cat lady.

Quote:Since there isn't a single position that can't be upgraded in one form or another, the need vs. BAP thing really doesn't apply to this team. Every position is a need, basically.

The BAP thing doesn't apply to anyone in the league because it's just a myth.  You don't seriously believe any GM is going to systematically pick a first rounder to sit on the bench rather than fill a position of need, do you?  You make the pick that helps put the team in a position to win.  If your star QB gets pounded every Sunday you don't draft a backup QB, you draft O-line.


To me, much of this thread is just a bunch of butthurt GM wannabes venting that the team didn't pick "their guy"...

What else do you expect threads on message boards like this to be?


Goes right back to cheering the name on the front of the jersey, not the back. A lot of so called fans haven't learned the concept yet.

Ranting and raving about the name on the back doesn't imply that fans aren't cheering for the name on the front.  See the above response; that's part of what message boards are all about.
Quote: 

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Dakota" data-cid="118622" data-time="1390608588">
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Since there isn't a single position that can't be upgraded in one form or another, the need vs. BAP thing really doesn't apply to this team. Every position is a need, basically.

The BAP thing doesn't apply to anyone in the league because it's just a myth.  You don't seriously believe any GM is going to systematically pick a first rounder to sit on the bench rather than fill a position of need, do you?  You make the pick that helps put the team in a position to win.  If your star QB gets pounded every Sunday you don't draft a backup QB, you draft O-line.


To me, much of this thread is just a bunch of butthurt GM wannabes venting that the team didn't pick "their guy"...

What else do you expect threads on message boards like this to be?


Goes right back to cheering the name on the front of the jersey, not the back. A lot of so called fans haven't learned the concept yet.

Ranting and raving about the name on the back doesn't imply that fans aren't cheering for the name on the front.  See the above response; that's part of what message boards are all about.
 

</div>
</blockquote>
 

If your first round pick is going to sit on the bench he probably wasn't BAP, so your point is invalid. You don't draft backup QBs in the first round, but if you narrow your focus on O-Line, you're going to miss out on better players just to fill a need.

Quote:If your first round pick is going to sit on the bench he probably wasn't BAP, so your point is invalid. Suppose a QB is BAP when the Broncos are on the clock in round 1?
  Do you think he' going to win the job over Manning?  Likewise Brady, Rodgers, Wilson, Brees, etc.?
  The point is not invalid simply because you can't understand it!
You don't draft backup QBs in the first round, OK, here's the what all the talking head BAP idiots aren't bright enough to understand; if you automatically  take BAP, you don't even get to choose what position you're picking, that choice is made for you by virtue of earlier teams selections. 
but if you narrow your focus on O-Line, If your QB is spending a lot of time on the ground, O-line is a good place to focus on
you're going to miss out on better players just to fill a need.  LOL, they're called needs for a reason!  You don't need better players......you need players who make the team better.  I'm sorry if you're not able to understand the difference.
Quote: 

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="PAjagsfan" data-cid="119013" data-time="1390673969">
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If your first round pick is going to sit on the bench he probably wasn't BAP, so your point is invalid. Suppose a QB is BAP when the Broncos are on the clock in round 1?
  Do you think he' going to win the job over Manning?  Likewise Brady, Rodgers, Wilson, Brees, etc.?
  The point is not invalid simply because you can't understand it!
You don't draft backup QBs in the first round, OK, here's the what all the talking head BAP idiots aren't bright enough to understand; if you automatically  take BAP, you don't even get to choose what position you're picking, that choice is made for you by virtue of earlier teams selections. 
but if you narrow your focus on O-Line, If your QB is spending a lot of time on the ground, O-line is a good place to focus on
you're going to miss out on better players just to fill a need.  LOL, they're called needs for a reason!  You don't need better players......you need players who make the team better.  I'm sorry if you're not able to understand the difference.
 

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</blockquote>
Aaron Rodgers was drafted in the first round. He sat for years behind Brett Favre. I think that one turned out rather nicely.
Why is it so hard for some people to understand drafting based on need is the only way to go? People are acting like we automatically sacrifice talent to fill a need. Baloney. Our history of bad picks in the Jack Del Rio era were simply the wrong choices to fill needs and did not mean we should have ignored our needs to pick better players. That was obvious in 2010, when Jason Pierre-Paul was one of the best available players, but Gene Smith thought Tyson Alualu was a better pick at #10. A smart general manager would have picked JPP instead to improve the defensive line.

 

Instead of BAP vs. need we should do it this way: BAP at need. In other words, pick the best available quarterback at #3 because we need a quarterback. It is that simple. Why do people make it seem so complicated?

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