Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Quote:Haha.  That's funny.   

 

I think Winston has single-handedly made whatever image problem Manziel had fade considerably by comparison.  

 

Guilty until proven innocent these days, I know.

Quote:Guilty until proven innocent these days, I know.

Sad but true.  

Quote:How many times has your mind been actually changed about a first-round quarterback because of a pro day or the combine?

 

I can't imagine caring about things like the Wonderlic, the bench press, or how a QB looks throwing against air in drills, but I guess some people have been dumb enough to be swayed by staged workouts (i.e. Al Davis and JaMarcus Russell). 

 

Um, it happens a lot. Most recently I can cite E.J. Manuel. At the end of the season, Manuel was graded in the middle rounds. An MVP performance in the Senior Bowl bumped his stock as did an impressive combine.

 

Honestly though, how ignorant do you have to be to sit there and say Pro-Days and the Combine don't affect draft stock? Why in God's name would NFL teams invest so much time and money into those events if they were meaningless?

 

Another instance, off the top of my head, was Ball State QB Nate Davis. After the college season, Davis was widely considered 2nd or possible 1st round pick. His stock crashed hard at the combine.

 

I can go on and on and on with examples. The NFL wouldn't invest so much if they were as meaningless as you say.

Quote:A 20 year old doesn't have the frame to gain 10 pounds?


LOL! I wish someone told me that 30 lbs ago.

I meant put it on his small frame and still maintain his unique playstyle

Quote:I have heard him mentioned as a potential top 5-10 pick but not the first pick. Why not?

 

Is it the height? I know he is probably closer to 5'10 but he isn't much shorter than Russell Wilson or Drew Brees. Both of them slipped due to height concerns and it proved to be foolish.

 

Is it a concern that he runs too much or can't play in a "pro style offense"? Does he have to? It seems like the NFL is adapting to the spread and spread option the way high school has since it took over college football. It was only natural that it would carry over into the NFL. So why not here?

 

And lastly, is his personality too much? Is that even possible? In this market, he would be a rock star. Alot of people that the national media ignores Jacksonville and when they do talk about us it is negative. Get some stars on this team and they will pay attention. Johnny Manziel is star #1 in this draft.

 

Imagine the roar of the crowd at Everbank the first time this guy goes on the field.

 

The biggest thing is he's looking shop-worn and the arm is breaking down.

Quote:The biggest thing is he's looking shop-worn and the arm is breaking down.

 

JungleCat's personal draft board:

 

Quote:Um, it happens a lot. Most recently I can cite E.J. Manuel. At the end of the season, Manuel was graded in the middle rounds. An MVP performance in the Senior Bowl bumped his stock as did an impressive combine.

 

Honestly though, how ignorant do you have to be to sit there and say Pro-Days and the Combine don't affect draft stock? Why in God's name would NFL teams invest so much time and money into those events if they were meaningless?

 

Another instance, off the top of my head, was Ball State QB Nate Davis. After the college season, Davis was widely considered 2nd or possible 1st round pick. His stock crashed hard at the combine.

 

I can go on and on and on with examples. The NFL wouldn't invest so much if they were as meaningless as you say.

 

Yeah, you don't get it. I'm asking why your opinion of EJ Manuel's future as a football player would change, not an NFL front office's mind when forced to overdraft a quarterback due to positional need and a barren talent pool from which to do so. The combine does matter for stock, of course, but that's clearly not what I'm referring to.

 

EJ Manuel was no better of a player between the Orange Bowl and the NFL Draft, and my opinion on his chances for NFL success -- relatively bleak -- did not falter just because his draft stock rose after passing through a glorified meat inspection; it makes sense that Manuel became a hotter commodity due to size and physical tools, but that was predictable. We knew in December that someone would fall for his 6'4/230+ frame. But how much do you actually care that Cam Newton had an uninspired pro day while Sam Bradford lit the world on fire at his? Would that really change your mind about their futures in the NFL if you already had a researched opinion based on their college experience?

 

Here's a prediction -- Zach Mettenberger makes scouts drool with his arm and size over the next five months when displayed on the meat market. His stock will steadily rise, perhaps to that of a late first-round pick. I don't think that actually makes him a better quarterback than what he currently is, though, and operating under this assumption allows me to adjust my prediction of his future success given that he could eventually be given the reigns of a franchise as their first-round investment.

So what you are saying is this....

 

Professional NFL scouts are allowed to change their mind based on things they see at Pro-Days and Combines, but fans aren't because we watch them on TV?

 

Ok.

Quote:So what you are saying is this....

 

Professional NFL scouts are allowed to change their mind based on things they see at Pro-Days and Combines, but fans aren't because we watch them on TV?

 

Ok.

 

No. GMs and front offices know when they have to take a QB, and they try and find the best player to take at their draft position. It's obvious now that the Bills were the only team in the first round absolutely committed to drafting a signal-caller no matter what last year, and Manuel was the best on their board. Minnesota in 2011 was in a similar predicament. The four months between the bowl season the draft gives those teams to watch every second of tape out there on a given prospect, something we don't have access to or the time to complete. That's more important than a guy's Wonderlic or how he looked completing a post route against air.

 

This is why I don't buy the narrative that Matt Barkley was a top-five shoe-in as a junior but fell to the 4th round due to a "down" senior year. Scouts knew what his tools and physical limitations were for years, and his stats were pretty similar in both seasons; it was USC's defense that fell apart. Draftniks resorted to the narrative of his team underachieving as to why he plummeted in the draft, but it's much more likely that they were the ones who had been way off the mark in their projections of his draft stock and had therefore misled the public. Kiper and McShay control the minds of millions of casual fans but have zero pull in any professional war room. 

 

Tell me, what exactly happens at combines or pro days that would change your mind about a guy you loved or hated in his last year of college? Especially since they're simply running rehearsed drills at their pro day and the top prospects almost never throw at the combine. If someone likes Derek Carr's arm strength at the Senior Bowl in a few months, there is plenty of evidence already available for us to know that he's got a great arm. They just weren't paying attention.

Quote:No. GMs and front offices know when they have to take a QB, and they try and find the best player to take at their draft position. It's obvious now that the Bills were the only team in the first round absolutely committed to drafting a signal-caller no matter what last year, and Manuel was the best on their board. Minnesota in 2011 was in a similar predicament. The four months between the bowl season the draft gives those teams to watch every second of tape out there on a given prospect, something we don't have access to or the time to complete. That's more important than a guy's Wonderlic or how he looked completing a post route against air.

 

This is why I don't buy the narrative that Matt Barkley was a top-five shoe-in as a junior but fell to the 4th round due to a "down" senior year. Scouts knew what his tools and physical limitations were for years, and his stats were pretty similar in both seasons; it was USC's defense that fell apart. Draftniks resorted to the narrative of his team underachieving as to why he plummeted in the draft, but it's much more likely that they were the ones who had been way off the mark in their projections of his draft stock and had therefore misled the public. Kiper and McShay control the minds of millions of casual fans but have zero pull in any professional war room. 

 

Tell me, what exactly happens at combines or pro days that would change your mind about a guy you loved or hated in his last year of college? Especially since they're simply running rehearsed drills at their pro day and the top prospects almost never throw at the combine. If someone likes Derek Carr's arm strength at the Senior Bowl in a few months, there is plenty of evidence already available for us to know that he's got a great arm. They just weren't paying attention.

 

So then yes, right? We can't change our minds, but scouts can.

 

And yes, professional NFL scouts just weren't paying attention.

 

You are honestly sitting here saying the combine is pointless, Senior bowls, and pro-days are pointless? Just when I thought you were getting respectable...

BluegrassBrandon, we can drop the debate because obviously we see differently.

 

However, I am curious to see if you are right. Can you give me your top 10 QBs in order right now? I will save the list and compare it to your top 10 QBs, in order, in April. They should match up, because your mind should be made up already, right? Or are you just another casual?

Quote:So then yes, right? We can't change our minds, but scouts can.

 

And yes, professional NFL scouts just weren't paying attention.

 

You are honestly sitting here saying the combine is pointless, Senior bowls, and pro-days are pointless? Just when I thought you were getting respectable...

 

What? Of course scouts are paying attention. They probably loved Carr before draftniks did. The latter is always playing catch-up with the opinions of the former. If a player's supposed draft stock ends up inconsistent with where he was actually taken, then the talking heads were probably way off the mark. Does anyone really think that Geno Smith was ever the number-one pick in the draft and then a day two prospect (by some descriptions at the end of the season) all because of a few bad games after a dominant start? I seriously doubt that NFL scouts are as fickle as mock drafts.

 

I don't have 10 quarterbacks that I've watched extensively enough to give an analysis on that would be anything worth a damn, so I'm not going to waste your time. I'm honest. What are you looking for, anyway? To see if my opinion changes, or if they're taken in anywhere near that order?

Quote:What? Of course scouts are paying attention. They probably loved Carr before draftniks did. The latter is always playing catch-up with the opinions of the former. If a player's supposed draft stock ends up inconsistent with where he was actually taken, then the talking heads were probably way off the mark. Does anyone really think that Geno Smith was ever the number-one pick in the draft and then a day two prospect (by some descriptions at the end of the season) all because of a few bad games after a dominant start? I seriously doubt that NFL scouts are as fickle as mock drafts.

 

I don't have 10 quarterbacks that I've watched extensively enough to give an analysis on that would be anything worth a damn, so I'm not going to waste your time. I'm honest. What are you looking for, anyway? To see if my opinion changes, or if they're taken in anywhere near that order?

 

How many quarterbacks would you feel comfortable ranking?

 

I don't care where they actually get taken. I want to see if your opinion changes between now and April.

1. Teddy

2. Mariota

3. Mettenberger

4. Carr

5. Bortles

6. Boyd

 

Something like that. I've had Teddy ranked number-one since the middle of his sophomore season, Mariota is an intriguing prospect with jaw-dropping physical skills, and the rest I've never been convinced are worthy of a first-round investment. I don't think Hundley will declare (or Bortles, but he's several notches better IMO) and I'm very low on Manziel.

 

My gripe was that the Cal fan has changed his mind about what quarterback he wants his favorite team to draft at least four or five times since September. So whenever a debate inevitably begins between Teddy vs. Flavor of the Month, it's less and less possible to take it seriously since you'll know he'll be on someone else's bandwagon depending on whoever has a great Saturday.

Quote:1. Teddy

2. Mariota

3. Mettenberger

4. Carr

5. Bortles

6. Boyd

 

Something like that. I've had Teddy ranked number-one since the middle of his sophomore season, Mariota is an intriguing prospect with jaw-dropping physical skills, and the rest I've never been convinced are worthy of a first-round investment. I don't think Hundley will declare (or Bortles, but he's several notches better IMO) and I'm very low on Manziel.

 

My gripe was that the Cal fan has changed his mind about what quarterback he wants his favorite team to draft at least four or five times since September. So whenever a debate inevitably begins between Teddy vs. Flavor of the Month, it's less and less possible to take it seriously since you'll know he'll be on someone else's bandwagon depending on whoever has a great Saturday.

uhhh my favorite qb was/is carr and it hasnt changed. only thing that changed are their draft projections because most of the ones i preferred in the top of the 2nd are now possibly first rounders. get that through your head bro. i still want clowney #1 overall.

Let's make up a situation.

 

QB. Has extreme athleticism. Could make all the throws. Strong arm. Played in a spread offense. Never lined up under center. He played a weak schedule and no defense really tested him. Based on his tools and performance, he is considered a 1st/2nd round pick. At his pro-day and combine, teams work him out under center and he absolutely cannot get the 3 and 5 step drops down. Teams go over "Xs and Os" with him and realize how little he knows about reading defenses. This was masked by the fact that he played terrible defenses.

 

You don't think his draft stock takes a hit? At all?

Quote:uhhh my favorite qb was/is carr and it hasnt changed. only thing that changed are their draft projections because most of the ones i preferred in the top of the 2nd are now possibly first rounders. get that through your head bro. i still want clowney #1 overall.

 

So how do the Jaguars end up with Carr?

Quote:Let's make up a situation.

 

QB. Has extreme athleticism. Could make all the throws. Strong arm. Played in a spread offense. Never lined up under center. He played a weak schedule and no defense really tested him. Based on his tools and performance, he is considered a 1st/2nd round pick. At his pro-day and combine, teams work him out under center and he absolutely cannot get the 3 and 5 step drops down. Teams go over "Xs and Os" with him and realize how little he knows about reading defenses. This was masked by the fact that he played terrible defenses.

 

You don't think his draft stock takes a hit? At all?

 

Of course it would. Now find me a real-life example of this incompetent quarterback.

Quote:Of course it would. Now find me a real-life example of this incompetent quarterback.

 

You don't think there have ever been quarterbacks who's flaws were disguised by weak competition and/or offensive system? Then were exposed by individual workouts and interviews?

 

Is this your first year following the draft?

Quote:So how do the Jaguars end up with Carr?

beginning of the season he was a solid 2nd round prospect and i wanted carr+clowney, now he has played himself possibly into the top 10. since theres a chance texans and falcons finish with a worse record than us then theres a big possibility clowney and teddy will be gone then i would prefer carr.