Let's look at the top 5 or 6 bottom feeders in the last 5 years:
2008
DET (0-16)........Matt Stafford......QB
STL (2-14)........Jason Smith.......OT
KC (2-14)..........Tyson Jackson...DE
SEA (4-12)........Aaron Curry........OLB
CLE (4-12)........Trade Back
2009
STL (1-15).........Sam Bradford........QB
DET (2-14).........Suh.......................DT
TAM (3-13).........Gerald McCoy.......DT
WASH (4-12)......Trent Williams.......OT
KC (4-12)...........Eric Berry..............SS
SEA (5-11).........Russell Okung.......OT
2010
CAR (2-14)..........Cam Newton........QB
DEN (4-12)..........Von Miller.............OLB
BUF (4-12)..........Marcell Dareus....DE
CIN (4-12)...........AJ Green.............WR
ARI (5-11)............Patrick Peterson...CB
CLE (5-11)...........Trade Back
2011
IND (2-14)..............Andrew Luck.......QB
STL (2-14)....,,,,,,,,,,Trade Back
MIN (3-13)..............Trade Back One Spot
CLE (4-12)..............Trade Up One Spot
TAM (4-12)..............Trade Back
2012
KC (2-14)................Eric Fisher........OT
JAX (2-14)...............Luke Joeckel....OT
OAK (4-12)..............Trade Back
PHI (4-12)................Lane Johnson....OT
DET (4-12)...............Ziggy Ansah.......DE
So, in the last 5 years, there were 2 franchise quarterbacks taken. Cam is still a question. But other than that, I begin to question how important a high top draft pick really is and how much it helps a team. In the last 5 years, some teams have kinda dwelled there. DET, STL, KC, and CLE have been in the bottom 5......3 times. TAM & SEA twice. So where are those teams now halfway thru the season? DET is 6-3. STL is 4-6. KC is 9-0. CLE is 4-5. TAM is 1-8. SEA is 9-1. The results tell me that maybe it doesn't matter as much as I thought. The draft is a crapshoot. It's important to have good scouts and a GM. Of course, thanks to Gene and Shack, we kinda already know this. The question this year for us is.......Is Teddy really THE GUY? Will he be a Stafford or Luck? Is there another quarterback better that will fall? Does it really matter where we pick if Caldwell is a drafting genius. Clearly some teams have an edge in that dept.
It is important to look at all of the details here. First of all why did the Browns and Rams trade down? The Falcons and Redskins called them, that's why. And those teams gave up the farm, not just two picks like most teams would do, receiving plenty of criticism for trading so much. In other words the Browns and Rams received trade offers that were too good to resist. I don't think they ever planned to trade down before getting weird phone calls.
Second, how much did drafting a quarterback with the #1 pick help the Lions, Rams, Panthers, and Colts, who obviously would not be so bad if they needed nothing else and also got new coaches? Maybe not the Panthers, but I know the Lions, Rams, and Colts got new head coaches a few months before drafting new quarterbacks. So all this talk about a new quarterback will fix everything is stretching the truth. That said, it is obvious without new quarterbacks, they would all still have losing records.
So let's dig deeper. What other positions did those four teams upgrade the same year they picked quarterbacks or since then? Were they all need-based or BAP drafts? How many other positions were upgraded since they drafted quarterbacks? We have to look at those things too, not just the quarterbacks who were selected.
The average Joe doesn't have a good understanding of how odds work. They also tend to be overconfident in their ability to beat the odds.
In reality, the difference in success rate of the top 10 picks is pretty insignificant, yet people believe with the number one pick they somehow have a greater chance for success than the statistical reality shows.
This overconfidence effect and the biases that come with it is so pervasive, that an entire field of finance has developed to take advantage of how people overvalue things and overestimate their abilities to make the best decisions. Entire markets fluctuate over these fallacies.
Quote:Let's look at the top 5 or 6 bottom feeders in the last 5 years:
2009
DET (0-16)........Matt Stafford......QB
STL (2-14)........Jason Smith.......OT
KC (2-14)..........Tyson Jackson...DE
SEA (4-12)........Aaron Curry........OLB
CLE (4-12)........Trade Back
2010
STL (1-15).........Sam Bradford........QB
DET (2-14).........Suh.......................DT
TAM (3-13).........Gerald McCoy.......DT
WASH (4-12)......Trent Williams.......OT
KC (4-12)...........Eric Berry..............SS
SEA (5-11).........Russell Okung.......OT
2011
CAR (2-14)..........Cam Newton........QB
DEN (4-12)..........Von Miller.............OLB
BUF (4-12)..........Marcell Dareus....DE
CIN (4-12)...........AJ Green.............WR
ARI (5-11)............Patrick Peterson...CB
CLE (5-11)...........Trade Back
2012
IND (2-14)..............Andrew Luck.......QB
STL (2-14)....,,,,,,,,,,Trade Back
MIN (3-13)..............Trade Back One Spot
CLE (4-12)..............Trade Up One Spot
TAM (4-12)..............Trade Back
2012
KC (2-14)................Eric Fisher........OT
JAX (2-14)...............Luke Joeckel....OT
OAK (4-12)..............Trade Back
PHI (4-12)................Lane Johnson....OT
DET (4-12)...............Ziggy Ansah.......DE
So, in the last 5 years, there were 2 franchise quarterbacks taken. Cam is still a question. But other than that, I begin to question how important a high top draft pick really is and how much it helps a team. In the last 5 years, some teams have kinda dwelled there. DET, STL, KC, and CLE have been in the bottom 5......3 times. TAM & SEA twice. So where are those teams now halfway thru the season? DET is 6-3. STL is 4-6. KC is 9-0. CLE is 4-5. TAM is 1-8. SEA is 9-1. The results tell me that maybe it doesn't matter as much as I thought. The draft is a crapshoot. It's important to have good scouts and a GM. Of course, thanks to Gene and Shack, we kinda already know this. The question this year for us is.......Is Teddy really THE GUY? Will he be a Stafford or Luck? Is there another quarterback better that will fall? Does it really matter where we pick if Caldwell is a drafting genius. Clearly some teams have an edge in that dept.
First, your years were off by one.
I adjusted them above.
Secondly, I want you to examine the 2010 draft.
Of the five players you listed, how many of them are better than Alualu?
How many of those players were available at 10?
Next, look at the 2011 draft.
Of the five players you listed, how many of them are better than Gabbert?
How many of those players were available at 10?
Now, the 2012 draft. You didn't list the players selected after the trades. I will list them here.
1. Andrew Luck-Colts
2. RG III-Skins
3. Trent Richardson-Browns
4. Matt Kalil-Vikings
5. Justin Blackmon-Jaguars
Of the playes listed above, how many would you prefer to have on this team over Justin Blackmon?
Were any of those players available at 5?
Having the #1 pick is more important when theres actually a player the caliber of Luck, Bridgewater, Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman sitting at the top of the draft....
I know the meaninglesswinlovers want to stamp their feet and hold their breath while trying to act like the #1 pick is insignificant for the upcoming year, but people with more than a 30 watter up there, can clearly see how important it is....especially for a team like Jacksonville.
Comparing the upcoming season's draft to past drafts that didn't have the same caliber of talent is kinda silly. Bridgewater & Clowney are probably the best top 2 draft choice combo in an NFL draft in the last 25 years.
I've said it 100 times, it's about selection not position. Getting the 1st overall pick is great but if you miss on the pick then you're no better off.
It does matter. You want to be able to pick your highest rated player. Whether the GM is able to evaluate talent is a different question.
Let me as you a question: Does that win versus the Titans mean anything in the long run? Especially for a team with a bunch of guys playing who are fillers and nothing more. Draft position means a lot more than whatever happens this year.
Quote:It does matter. You want to be able to pick your highest rated player. Whether the GM is able to evaluate talent is a different question.
Let me as you a question: Does that win versus the Titans mean anything in the long run? Especially for a team with a bunch of guys playing who are fillers and nothing more. Draft position means a lot more than whatever happens this year.
Its amazing how that win against the Titans seemed to open up the floodgates for the mouthbreathers that now have lost all perspective on whats "really" important, and whats not.
Quote:I've said it 100 times, it's about selection not position. Getting the 1st overall pick is great but if you miss on the pick then you're no better off.
Agreed to a point.
Having superior draft position does not absolve a team of its duty to evaluate properly.
But even if you have scouted and evaluated properly, inferior draft position puts you at the mercy of those with better draft position.
You are dependent upon other teams ahead of you to get it wrong.
If you have inferior draft position, even if you get it right, if those above you get the evaluation right, they will pick better players than you.
If you have inferior draft position, the chances of misevaluation increase.
Quote:Agreed to a point.
Having superior draft position does not absolve a team of its duty to evaluate properly.
But even if you have scouted and evaluated properly, inferior draft position puts you at the mercy of those with better draft position.
You are dependent upon other teams ahead of you to get it wrong.
If you have inferior draft position, even if you get it right, if those above you get the evaluation right, they will pick better players than you.
If you have inferior draft position, the chances of misevaluation increase.
Sad that there seems to be many on this board that don't seem to understand the above obvious.
Quote:Agreed to a point.
Having superior draft position does not absolve a team of its duty to evaluate properly.
But even if you have scouted and evaluated properly, inferior draft position puts you at the mercy of those with better draft position.
You are dependent upon other teams ahead of you to get it wrong.
If you have inferior draft position, even if you get it right, if those above you get the evaluation right, they will pick better players than you.
If you have inferior draft position, the chances of misevaluation increase.
In a perfect world where the top 5 teams took the 5 best players it would matter more. But the truth is regardless of where you draft evaluating the talent and making the right selection is priority.
No team is going to lose on purpose, I know TMD and others are cheering for it, that's fine I don't mind losing either but I'm not going to pretend we are trying not to win games. Nor would I agree that any win is meaningless, I don't buy for a minute that knowing how to win as an organization happens when we magically get better players.
Some people (not you specifically) are pretending that the only way to turn this around is to get the 1st overall pick and take the next sure fire hit at QB Bridgewater. Bridgewater might be the next best thing at QB, he might not be, but lets stop pretending it's Bridgewater or bust. Make the right selections and we can turn this around I don't care where we draft, just get it right Jaguars.
Quote:In a perfect world where the top 5 teams took the 5 best players it would matter more. But the truth is regardless of where you draft evaluating the talent and making the right selection is priority.
No team is going to lose on purpose, I know TMD and others are cheering for it, that's fine I don't mind losing either but I'm not going to pretend we are trying not to win games. Nor would I agree that any win is meaningless, I don't buy for a minute that knowing how to win as an organization happens when we magically get better players.
Some people (not you specifically) are pretending that the only way to turn this around is to get the 1st overall pick and take the next sure fire hit at QB Bridgewater. Bridgewater might be the next best thing at QB, he might not be, but lets stop pretending it's Bridgewater or bust. Make the right selections and we can turn this around I don't care where we draft, just get it right Jaguars.
Its not "cheering for it".
During the Titans game from 1-4 pm while the game was actually going on - I could not root for a loss. I was happy they were winning during that momentary lapse of reason.....and its just the way I am wired. I cannot sit there and root for losses this early in the season DURING the actual game. But, for the rest of the week, when I can see the situation from a more cerebral nature, I see that the Jags losing games the rest of this year is actually more likely to be beneficial in the long run than winning a few of them.
Quote:In a perfect world where the top 5 teams took the 5 best players it would matter more. But the truth is regardless of where you draft evaluating the talent and making the right selection is priority.
No team is going to lose on purpose, I know TMD and others are cheering for it, that's fine I don't mind losing either but I'm not going to pretend we are trying not to win games. Nor would I agree that any win is meaningless, I don't buy for a minute that knowing how to win as an organization happens when we magically get better players.
Some people (not you specifically) are pretending that the only way to turn this around is to get the 1st overall pick and take the next sure fire hit at QB Bridgewater. Bridgewater might be the next best thing at QB, he might not be, but lets stop pretending it's Bridgewater or bust. Make the right selections and we can turn this around I don't care where we draft, just get it right Jaguars.
I agree completely with the idea in bold that irrespective of draft position, it is imperative for the team to pick the right player.
As to the italicized portion, I am not sold on the proposition that one win out of a 2 win season somehow imbues the team with knowledge on how to win. The Jaguars won that late game against the Colts in 2011, and has been 3-22 since then. Besides, since very few teams have gone winless since the merger, then all teams have knowledge of winning to some degree or another. The difference then becomes talent.
More on the underlined portion later.
Quote:Its not "cheering for it".
During the Titans game from 1-4 pm while the game was actually going on - I could not root for a loss. I was happy they were winning during that momentary lapse of reason.....and its just the way I am wired. I cannot sit there and root for losses this early in the season DURING the actual game. But, for the rest of the week, when I can see the situation from a more cerebral nature, I see that the Jags losing games the rest of this year is actually more likely to be beneficial in the long run than winning a few of them.
That's fine nothing wrong knowing that, but you keep categorizing people that refuse to acknowledge the Bridgewater or bust theory as mouth breathers (an FBT term?) and other things, I'm just pointing out I like others believe there is more then one way to skin a cat.
i don't think these wins are meaningless and I do think no matter what they do from here on out some people are going to show frustration. Some people will say wins are really losses because the real prize is the draft position, others will say losses create a culture of losing in the franchise a culture we are already fighting to change.
Quote:That's fine nothing wrong knowing that, but you keep categorizing people that refuse to acknowledge the Bridgewater or bust theory as mouth breathers (an FBT term?) and other things, I'm just pointing out I like others believe there is more then one way to skin a cat.
i don't think these wins are meaningless and I do think no matter what they do from here on out some people are going to show frustration. Some people will say wins are really losses because the real prize is the draft position, others will say losses create a culture of losing in the franchise a culture we are already fighting to change.
The culture isn't changing because of a few wins at the end of an already dead season....
The culture changes when you actually get a stud player at the most important position on the field (QB) which gives the remaining 52 players on the roster a feeling that they can actually win every single week going forward.
Quote:Its not "cheering for it".
During the Titans game from 1-4 pm while the game was actually going on - I could not root for a loss. I was happy they were winning during that momentary lapse of reason.....and its just the way I am wired. I cannot sit there and root for losses this early in the season DURING the actual game. But, for the rest of the week, when I can see the situation from a more cerebral nature, I see that the Jags losing games the rest of this year is actually more likely to be beneficial in the long run than winning a few of them.
If we finished 8-0, no one will care about our draft position.
7-1, 6-2, I would gladly accept for a drop in draft pick.Anything more than a 2 game win streak to finish the season, I would gladly swap for draft position.
If you think being 5-11 and having the #7 draft pick is better for this franchise than going 2-14 and having the #1 pick then I can't help you. The only... and I do mean... ONLY... only way to get better is to get a franchise QB. If you don't have one of those, you will never be in contention in today's NFL. The best way to get that franchise QB is to draft him. The best way to draft him is to take him before someone else does. If we end up with #5 or whatever it is because we won a few meaningless games then this season was for not.
Someone once said you need to be either really good or really bad. Being mediocre is the worst place to be.
Quote:If you think being 5-11 and having the #7 draft pick is better for this franchise than going 2-14 and having the #1 pick then I can't help you. The only... and I do mean... ONLY... only way to get better is to get a franchise QB. If you don't have one of those, you will never be in contention in today's NFL. The best way to get that franchise QB is to draft him. The best way to draft him is to take him before someone else does. If we end up with #5 or whatever it is because we won a few meaningless games then this season was for not.
Someone once said you need to be either really good or really bad. Being mediocre is the worst place to be.
Finishing the season 5-3 would change the outlook of this team considerably.
Draft order doesn't necessarily translate over to ability at the next level. For all we know, the HOFer of the class could be sitting at #7.
Quote:If you think being 5-11 and having the #7 draft pick is better for this franchise than going 2-14 and having the #1 pick then I can't help you. The only... and I do mean... ONLY... only way to get better is to get a franchise QB. If you don't have one of those, you will never be in contention in today's NFL. The best way to get that franchise QB is to draft him. The best way to draft him is to take him before someone else does. If we end up with #5 or whatever it is because we won a few meaningless games then this season was for not.
Someone once said you need to be either really good or really bad. Being mediocre is the worst place to be.
Alex Smith is a franchise quarterback?
When there is a QB prospect like Teddy Bridgewater, having the number 1 overall pick can change the fortunes of a franchise for the next 15 years.