Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Full Version: Team Rebuild again in 2019?
You're currently viewing a stripped down version of our content. View the full version with proper formatting.
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5
(11-01-2018, 12:00 PM)ramseyx20 Wrote: [ -> ]fowler > calais. calais is old and has one move. dante has speed and everything else. they never gave dante a chance to shine. we signed calais to a huge deal and yannick was going to be given the opportunity bc his contract was cheaper so they wanted to see what they got from him...

ever since dareus came to our team our defense sucks

there’s no push in the middle

I couldn't disagree with you more. Everything you say here, I totally disagree with. Everything.
(11-01-2018, 03:51 PM)Jags02 Wrote: [ -> ]If they cut Bortles after the season the team only saves a few mil. We're well over the cap having to cut one of our DLs just to get under, so we can't just hang onto the rest of his cap hit as dead money. We'd need that money to pay for a replacement at QB. With that in mind, I feel like the team either has to trade Bortles for a 6th or 7th round pick or else continue to start him in 2019. If a rookie QB were to replace him in say mid-2019, that would be ok. After that season we can cut him no sweat. For Blake to start the 2020 season, he'd have to play like he did in 2015 pretty much from here on out and especially next year. 

They wouldn't have put the offsets in there if they didn't envision a scenario where they'd end up cutting him.  I do believe the small guaranteed portion of his deal next year ($6.5 million) is basically going to force him to re-do his deal here if he wants to stay and start/mentor a rookie to take over next year.  They're simply not going to pay him $21 million next year based on where we're at with him at this moment.  If he goes on a run and we crawl our way back into the playoffs, maybe things change for him.  If they are forced to cut him next year, however, they'd only owe him the $6.5 million and probably less due to the offsets.

The dead money means nothing to Blake.  That's a team number.  They could easily tell him they'd like to keep him if he'll re-sign on a 1 or 2 year deal for $13 mil per year or some other arbitrary low end bridge QB salary which lowers the team's cap hit, guarantees Blake a much bigger pay day than he's currently guaranteed to get and if it's a 2 year deal they could have most if not all of the guarantees in year 1 so there is little to no dead money issue the following year.  The current deal provides the team leverage in not moving forward with his current deal one way or another.  If you're Blake and you're facing getting cut and making $6.5 million for 2019 or the team says we want you to stay for somewhere in the $13 to $15 million range and we'll fully guarantee it prior to training camp, which would you choose?  No one is trading anything for him at a $21 million salary for 2019 unless part of the trade involves him reworking his deal.  And even then, why would anyone want to trade for him based on his career to date?  Everything else has to be right for him to be successful consistently.  There's a lot of back ups in the league that could probably provide that for a lot less money.

Him playing on his current contract next year seems like a highly unlikely scenario to me right now.  Even the most anti-Bortles Jags fans shouldn't have a problem having him here next year at a much lower number in a bridge/mentor/eventual back up role.
(11-01-2018, 01:21 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]I think we keep Jackson and Dareus.  One or both will be gone in 2020 though along with campbell

I hope you are right about this. As much as I love Calais' leadership, he has passed his prime and will not be worth the money. The remainder of this season needs to be focused on finding the guys that can be counted on moving forwards. Bryan needs to play more. Chark needs to continue getting more snaps to see if he shows signs of being the team's number 1 receiver next year. 

This team has enough talent to return to the playoffs next season as long as they make better off-season moves. Number 1 priority is the offensive line for the obvious reasons. Hopefully they can find their quarterback in the first or 2nd rounds of the draft. This season's rash of injuries was as much an anomaly as 2017, just in the opposite direction. A backfield tandem of a healthy Fournette (I know, unlikely) and Hyde running behind a revamped line would be tough for defenses to deal with. As disappointing as this season has been, don't write them off for next year.
(11-01-2018, 05:01 PM)Jags02 Wrote: [ -> ]Cam had a few struggles, but he was doing a fine job and projects to start at LT for many years on end.

Was he though? He had a bad rookie season where he allowed 3 or more pressures 10 separate times and was among the league leaders in penalties.
He had a bad preseason where several threads were made bemoaning his lack of progression.
He did have a good first game against a Giants team with a very poor pass rush, and that's before Olivier Vernon missed the game.
And then he had an awful start to the second game where he was injured after getting crumpled twice in like 3 plays.

I think he is projectable as a starter on the line somewhere, but I don't think it's at tackle. If we could draft or sign an LT and have Cam fill Cann's absence at RG after he leaves this year that would be pretty perfect to me.
(11-01-2018, 08:43 PM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-01-2018, 05:01 PM)Jags02 Wrote: [ -> ]Cam had a few struggles, but he was doing a fine job and projects to start at LT for many years on end.

Was he though? He had a bad rookie season where he allowed 3 or more pressures 10 separate times and was among the league leaders in penalties.
He had a bad preseason where several threads were made bemoaning his lack of progression.
He did have a good first game against a Giants team with a very poor pass rush, and that's before Olivier Vernon missed the game.
And then he had an awful start to the second game where he was injured after getting crumpled twice in like 3 plays.

I think he is projectable as a starter on the line somewhere, but I don't think it's at tackle. If we could draft or sign an LT and have Cam fill Cann's absence at RG after he leaves this year that would be pretty perfect to me.
Hyperbole and stats don't paint the same picture as what I got from just watching the kid play. 

He had specific moments of looking like a rookie. He had specific moments of looking bad. Not many by my recollection, but a few. 

In between those he had a lot of snaps where he looked like a promising rookie LT.  I don't know how he'll come back from the knee, and I don't know how the Jags will fortify the tackle position, but I'm definitely not so quick to just write off Cam Robinson. He did a lot of things right for a rookie tackle and that may be something to build upon for him.
(11-01-2018, 09:24 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-01-2018, 08:43 PM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ]Was he though? He had a bad rookie season where he allowed 3 or more pressures 10 separate times and was among the league leaders in penalties.
He had a bad preseason where several threads were made bemoaning his lack of progression.
He did have a good first game against a Giants team with a very poor pass rush, and that's before Olivier Vernon missed the game.
And then he had an awful start to the second game where he was injured after getting crumpled twice in like 3 plays.

I think he is projectable as a starter on the line somewhere, but I don't think it's at tackle. If we could draft or sign an LT and have Cam fill Cann's absence at RG after he leaves this year that would be pretty perfect to me.
Hyperbole and stats don't paint the same picture as what I got from just watching the kid play. 

He had specific moments of looking like a rookie. He had specific moments of looking bad. Not many by my recollection, but a few. 

In between those he had a lot of snaps where he looked like a promising rookie LT.  I don't know how he'll come back from the knee, and I don't know how the Jags will fortify the tackle position, but I'm definitely not so quick to just write off Cam Robinson. He did a lot of things right for a rookie tackle and that may be something to build upon for him.

I watched every snap of the kid too, and I saw a guy who does well against the less speed, more power types like Clowney...and get whipped by most speed rushers. His feet are just too heavy. I'd guess that him knowing he is usually out athlete'd is a big reason why he false starts so much too.
(11-01-2018, 01:35 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]Jackson would go before Dareus


I totally disagree. We have no other pass rushing DT's on the roster. So, who would we replace Jackson with? Our run defense has gone downhill, cutting Dareus would save us $10.5 million next season and it's a fantastic NT class. To me, the writing is on the wall that Dareus is a goner.
(11-01-2018, 11:40 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-01-2018, 01:35 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]Jackson would go before Dareus


I totally disagree. We have no other pass rushing DT's on the roster. So, who would we replace Jackson with? Our run defense has gone downhill, cutting Dareus would save us $10.5 million next season and it's a fantastic NT class. To me, the writing is on the wall that Dareus is a goner.

I dont care, you look at who is having the better year and look at their contracts.  Dareus has had a better year, Jackson get pushed around in the run game, and Jackson is set to make 5 mil more a year.  Dareus has been just as good at getting pressure up the middle as Jackson has, hell he had the FF last week.   Bryan can play 3 tech, and honestly id rather him play 3 tech than DE.

One could argue Dareus has been our best defensive player this year
Dareus 27th ranked DL in fantasy
https://www.scout.com/football/nfl/news/...32200-fvo/

Jackson a pff grade of 59.5 average
https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/pla...ckson/7647

Dareus a pff grade of 80 high quality
https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/pla...areus/6155

Not to mention the eye test. Dareus has been giving other teams olines hell, against the run and putting decent pressure up the middle and 5 mil. less. Yeah, give me Dareus

Jackson has been getting pushed around in the run game and not putting the pressure up the middle like he was last year.
(11-02-2018, 12:00 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]...

Jackson has been getting pushed around in the run game and not putting the pressure up the middle like he was last year.

Jackson looked really disruptive early on this season, but has faded since then.  
I wonder what is going on there?
(11-01-2018, 11:45 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-01-2018, 11:40 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]I totally disagree. We have no other pass rushing DT's on the roster. So, who would we replace Jackson with? Our run defense has gone downhill, cutting Dareus would save us $10.5 million next season and it's a fantastic NT class. To me, the writing is on the wall that Dareus is a goner.

I dont care, you look at who is having the better year and look at their contracts.  Dareus has had a better year, Jackson get pushed around in the run game, and Jackson is set to make 5 mil more a year.  Dareus has been just as good at getting pressure up the middle as Jackson has, hell he had the FF last week.   Bryan can play 3 tech, and honestly id rather him play 3 tech than DE.

One could argue Dareus has been our best defensive player this year

Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye and Telvin Smith have looked awful this season as well, but we're not getting rid of them either.
I'm not reading all the posts in this thread... the first one gave me enough of an annoyance.

The window hasn't closed. There doesn't need to be a total rebuild.

The window is 2020, that's the year hard decisions will have to be made about paying a lot of guys, tagging folks, keeping guys...

Honestly this defense doesn't need much except some depth at certain positions right now, after 2020 it could need a lot.
The offense needs some OL help/replacements at RG and RT, a TE to compliment ASJ and the pass game, and a QB.
Everything else wrong with this roster is depth related.

We'll get Lee back which isn't a huge gain... but matters... I'm not a big Lee fan, but his presence definitely matters on the field.
We'll get ASJ back.
Fournette should be back for more than 8 games next year we hope lol
Cam Robinson our starting LT will be back.

Every team every offseason has to "retool"
a rebuild happens when teams are lacking talent. Or when a new coach comes in with sweeping changes, like switching from a 43 to a 34.
I don't think we're in 2013 mode...
We have 6 draft selections I think... We could use 4 (package a couple to move perhaps) on QB, TE, OT, and RB/RG
Hit up free agency for cheap OL, WR, and defense depth.
Add that to returning healthy members and further development of young guys (Like Westbrook and Chark) and I think there is reason to still remain optimistic about SB hopes next year.
(11-02-2018, 10:22 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-01-2018, 11:45 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]I dont care, you look at who is having the better year and look at their contracts.  Dareus has had a better year, Jackson get pushed around in the run game, and Jackson is set to make 5 mil more a year.  Dareus has been just as good at getting pressure up the middle as Jackson has, hell he had the FF last week.   Bryan can play 3 tech, and honestly id rather him play 3 tech than DE.

One could argue Dareus has been our best defensive player this year

Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye and Telvin Smith have looked awful this season as well, but we're not getting rid of them either.

IDK if I'd say awful for Ramsey and Bouye. But definitely not as good. Which I'm hesitant to blame them for getting worked over late in games when they've been on the field so much.
Telvin has been playing awful... I'd almost want him to take a pay cut on that nice contract he got haha.

Everyone been arguing about cutting Jackson or Dareus... honestly... the age, money, and injury concerns have me leaning toward Campbell being cut, or at least taking a cut to finish out his final couple years.
I think with Fowler out of the possibility of resigning and Yan still a year or so out... I think we're keeping both Jackson and Dareus this off season.
(11-02-2018, 10:22 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-01-2018, 11:45 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]I dont care, you look at who is having the better year and look at their contracts.  Dareus has had a better year, Jackson get pushed around in the run game, and Jackson is set to make 5 mil more a year.  Dareus has been just as good at getting pressure up the middle as Jackson has, hell he had the FF last week.   Bryan can play 3 tech, and honestly id rather him play 3 tech than DE.

One could argue Dareus has been our best defensive player this year

Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye and Telvin Smith have looked awful this season as well, but we're not getting rid of them either.

Dareus and Jackson are the same age, one is playing very good and making 5 mil less and one average at best and making 15 mil a year.  If you dont see the difference im sorry.  I think we end up keeping both though because Jackson would be a 4 mil dead cap hit.  If he were a 0 in dead cap space I think they would cut him at season end.  Church is a lock to be gone with his play, age, contract, and him supposed to be a leader of the team and out in England with the young guys runnning up a 65 thousand dollar bar tab and not wanting to pay.  After that we will be about 6 million over the cap.  If we cut Hyde that would be another 5 mil.  Then all they would pretty much have to do is make room for the rookies.  Cutting Niles Paul would save 2 mil. as he has done nothing, I dont even recall him making a play in speacial teams

(11-02-2018, 10:55 AM)Kane Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-02-2018, 10:22 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye and Telvin Smith have looked awful this season as well, but we're not getting rid of them either.

IDK if I'd say awful for Ramsey and Bouye. But definitely not as good. Which I'm hesitant to blame them for getting worked over late in games when they've been on the field so much.
Telvin has been playing awful... I'd almost want him to take a pay cut on that nice contract he got haha.

Everyone been arguing about cutting Jackson or Dareus... honestly... the age, money, and injury concerns have me leaning toward Campbell being cut, or at least taking a cut to finish out his final couple years.
I think with Fowler out of the possibility of resigning and Yan still a year or so out... I think we're keeping both Jackson and Dareus this off season.

I think our dline stays together one more year after this season, we shall see.  Cutting Campbell would be 3 mil in dead cap space.  The only way i see us cutting Campbell is if his play regress over the 2nd half of the season.  I just dont see that happening
(11-01-2018, 11:10 AM)KingJones Wrote: [ -> ]Team has missed SB window and it's gonna need close to full rebuild (at least on offense) starting 2019.  

Front 4 is going to be reshuffled.  Fowler is already gone, Bryan was brought in to replace Campbell but hasn't done anything yet, either Darius or Jackson will be gone next year... possibly both, Church is getting replaced by Harrison, Telvin is shadow of his old self, Jacks is playing decent, we're set at CB/Nickel and FS/SS.

On offense we're a mess.  Robinson when not injured is average at best at LT, Norwell is regressing every game, Linder is decent, AJ is pretty much gone next year, Parnell struggles BIG time against speed rushers and we have yet to see Richardson.  Aside from Linder we could use upgrade at every spot on O-Line and not to mention this unit gets no push at all in the run game.  Bortles will be with team next year, but he's pretty much done.  Fournete is starting to look like a bust, not because of his play but because he can't stay healthy, same issue at LSU.  We don't know what Hyde can do and TJ and Grant will most likely be gone next year.  WR... aside from Westbrook we are garbage.  I hope in coming weeks Charks gets more reps over Cole or Moncrief.  He has the talent but just needs more reps.  Cole is working himself out of lineup and Moncrief just plays lazy.  Lee when healthy is not #1 on any team.  ASJ hasn't shown anything even when healthy and he is injury prone (same thing at Jets) and we have no one behind him.  

These coming 2-3 years are going to be LOOONNNNNGGG...

Relax. The window isn't closed yet. If anything we're fixing to see a high turnover rate at QB for a lot of teams. Brady, Rivers and Roethlisberger can't have that much left in the tank this year. That's three potential play-off spots right there opening up in 2019 / 2020. 

The problem this year is just not enough healthy bodies on offense and because they can't get enough points on the board you're seeing the defense trying to make plays that aren't there and they're giving up in moments that they didn't give up so much last year as a unit. 

They'll have to figure out who they'll have to keep and let go on defense next year. But even with that being the case that just means Dave and Tom and the coaching staff need to bolster it again or add some pieces on offense to get it going. 

But this idea that our window is closed? Not true at all. Outside of Mahomes and Watson. There's not a ton of QB's that scare you on paper going into 2019 / 2020 in the AFC. (Unless those three guys I mentioned above earlier stick it out once again).
Its funny how people always want to replace Parnell but he has been our 2nd best lineman the last 3 years. Parnell will be here 1 more year after this one.
(11-02-2018, 11:01 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]Its funny how people always want to replace Parnell but he has been our 2nd best lineman the last 3 years.  Parnell will be here 1 more year after this one.

Yeah. I agree. And with the need to replace Cann looming and the need for depth at tackle, keeping Parnell gives you time to develop Richardson and another tackle from the upcoming draft. If one of those guys ends up taking over for Parnell midseason in 2019, that's fine. But letting him go just creates an unnecessary void. 

I think if they draft a guard and a swing tackle in 2019 the line will probably be fine. 
Robinson - Norwell - Linder - Rookie RG - Parnell

Depth will include Richardson, a rookie tackle, Shatley if they re-sign him cheap, same with Wells. 
They also have OG Brandon Thomas on the practice squad who may stick as depth. He was a third round pick a few years back.
(11-01-2018, 08:03 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-01-2018, 03:51 PM)Jags02 Wrote: [ -> ]If they cut Bortles after the season the team only saves a few mil. We're well over the cap having to cut one of our DLs just to get under, so we can't just hang onto the rest of his cap hit as dead money. We'd need that money to pay for a replacement at QB. With that in mind, I feel like the team either has to trade Bortles for a 6th or 7th round pick or else continue to start him in 2019. If a rookie QB were to replace him in say mid-2019, that would be ok. After that season we can cut him no sweat. For Blake to start the 2020 season, he'd have to play like he did in 2015 pretty much from here on out and especially next year. 

They wouldn't have put the offsets in there if they didn't envision a scenario where they'd end up cutting him.  I do believe the small guaranteed portion of his deal next year ($6.5 million) is basically going to force him to re-do his deal here if he wants to stay and start/mentor a rookie to take over next year.  They're simply not going to pay him $21 million next year based on where we're at with him at this moment.  If he goes on a run and we crawl our way back into the playoffs, maybe things change for him.  If they are forced to cut him next year, however, they'd only owe him the $6.5 million and probably less due to the offsets.

The dead money means nothing to Blake.  That's a team number.  They could easily tell him they'd like to keep him if he'll re-sign on a 1 or 2 year deal for $13 mil per year or some other arbitrary low end bridge QB salary which lowers the team's cap hit, guarantees Blake a much bigger pay day than he's currently guaranteed to get and if it's a 2 year deal they could have most if not all of the guarantees in year 1 so there is little to no dead money issue the following year.  The current deal provides the team leverage in not moving forward with his current deal one way or another.  If you're Blake and you're facing getting cut and making $6.5 million for 2019 or the team says we want you to stay for somewhere in the $13 to $15 million range and we'll fully guarantee it prior to training camp, which would you choose?  No one is trading anything for him at a $21 million salary for 2019 unless part of the trade involves him reworking his deal.  And even then, why would anyone want to trade for him based on his career to date?  Everything else has to be right for him to be successful consistently.  There's a lot of back ups in the league that could probably provide that for a lot less money.

Him playing on his current contract next year seems like a highly unlikely scenario to me right now.  Even the most anti-Bortles Jags fans shouldn't have a problem having him here next year at a much lower number in a bridge/mentor/eventual back up role.


You're confusing numbers here. You said, "No one is trading anything for him at a $21 million salary for 2019 unless part of the trade involves him reworking his deal." The $21 mil is his cap hit, which includes a $5 mil signing bonus hit from his last signing bonus. His base salary is only $16 mil, which is all his new team would have to pay him short of re-working his deal.

Again, Blakes cap hit if he plays is $21 mil. If they cut him, his remaining $10 mil in bonus amortization counts along with the additional $6.5 mil guaranteed salary. It's possible that $6.5 mil number could go down with the offsets which would only be the case if his new team actually paid him less than that as a backup. I don't know that we can count on that happening, so chances are we'll owe the full $6.5 mil. When you including the $10 bonus amortization, that makes his dead money hit $16.5 mil. The total savings for 2019 would be $4.5 mil.

If the team was loaded with available cash this would be easy to do, however, we're over the cap and have to make moves just to get under. To free up a mere $4.5 mil with no starting QB in place on the roster puts the Jaguars in a very tough situation.

Now, if they hang onto Blake for one more year at $21 mil, and then cut him after 2019, the team would only have to account for his final $5 mil signing bonus hit. Compared to his contracted $23 mil cap hit for 2020, that would be an $18 mil savings leaving the Jaguars in much better shape to go out and sign a proven vet should Blake not redeem himself by then.

If we make the move this year instead, you can pretty much forget about any decent free agent QBs. The Jaguars would literally be forced to go QB with their first pick, and every team out there would know it. Some of those teams might look to move ahead of the Jaguars, so to get our QB we're talking about trading even more picks. It's just really not an ideal situation.
(11-02-2018, 11:01 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]Its funny how people always want to replace Parnell but he has been our 2nd best lineman the last 3 years.  Parnell will be here 1 more year after this one.


I can see Parnell sticking around another year. It's just he's getting old and it's starting to show. It wouldn't shock me if he upped and retired after the season, but short of that, it's not like we have to replace him this offseason.

Frankly, it's almost surprising they're getting anywhere on offense. We're out Corey Grant, and Fournette has been out most of the season. Our top two TEs are out along with our top two OTs. The last part is the worst because we're literally fielding a scrub at LT which the rest of the team has to compensate for. On top of that, Blake is not exactly improving and our WRs keep dropping passes.

Our last hope seems to rest on Fournette finally returning healthy and on Hyde finally being up to speed with the offense. They talk about wanting to run the ball and to establish that as their identity, and yet this season they've had a tendency to abandon the run even before they're behind in games. With all the issues in the passing game, it would be a breath of fresh air if they could actually control the clock like they routinely did last year. 
Our best bet is to sign someone like McCown or Fitzpatrick, although I doubt Fitzpatrick is available next year. McCown is actually pretty decent.
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5