Quote:I think that Russell Wilson is every bit as good as Luck. I’m ok with being in the minority. Still, we’re talking about Andrew Luck, universally regarded as a generational prospect at the most important position in football and there can still an argument between him and a 3rd round pick in the same class.
Also, you are basically saying that even if you get an Andrew Luck level QB prospect, the level of talent around him matters. Why then is it not better to bring a QB on to a better team. If we all agree that the players are trying to win. Why then is it so much more significant to pick 4 or 5 draft positions earlier than to have several players who are already on your roster play well enough to win 3 or 4 more games.
First, you are to be commended to be willing to be with the minority. We all are at one point or another, but to willingly embrace it can be an admirable trait. Kudos to you on that point, even though we disagree philosophically on the whole draft position thing. Hopefully you use that for good!
Having dispensed with that, let's assume for argument's sake that Wilson is equal to Luck as a QB (and I don't necessarily disagree with the assertion). How many 3rd round picks or lower over the last 40 years could be considered legitimate franchise QBs? I will spot you two (Brady and Montana, and add in Russell Wilson). Even with that, I submit you'd have a hard time reaching ten-twelve guys. With Wilson, Montana, and Brady, you are talking about the exception of the exception of the exceptional player.
As to the point about surrounding talent, of course it's better to bring in even a great QB to a team with a great surrounding cast. But the reality is it rarely happens. The reality is, consensus franchise QBs are typically gone within the top 5-10 picks of a given draft, and the teams that are in a draft position to get them are typically bad teams without much talent with which to surround the stud rookie QB. Since franchise QBs are such a rarity, it makes sense to get them when you have the ability to do so and fill in the surrounding talent later. If you build a talented team without a franchise QB, while you invariably fall short of your goal of winning the Super Bowl, you typically pick so low in the process, the odds of acquiring the franchise signal caller-already low-becomes even lower.
Finally, taking a QB high does not preclude a team from building a good team around them. The Steelers were a nothing franchise until they selected Bradshaw first overall in the 1970 draft. In subsequent years, they added Hall of Famers L.C. Greenwood, Jack Ham, Jack Lambert, Mel Blount, Franco Harris, Mike Webster, Lynn Swann and John Stallworth (and at least one more guy that should be in-Donnie Shell). But had they not finished 1-13 in the 1969 season, they would not have been in position to select Bradshaw.
Dallas was able to select Troy Aikman first overall in 1989 because they finished 3-13 in 1988. In subsequent drafts, they added Emmitt Smith, Jay Novacek, Alvin Harper, Erik Williams, Larry Allen, Charles Haley, Leon Lett, Kevin Smith, Darren Woodson, etc.
The Colts were able to select Peyton Manning first overall because they finished 3-13 in 1997. After adding Manning, they added Edgerrin James, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis and Bob Sanders, and wound up winning the Super Bowl.
In a draft day trade, the Giants were able to deal for Eli Manning, who was selected first overall by the Chargers. They were only able to pull off this deal:
1. because the Chargers had the first overall pick and were in position to select Manning
2. Manning refused to play for the Chargers
3. There happened to be another QB in that draft (Rivers) that scouts felt was a potential franchise guy in one of the two best QB first rounds in memory (1983 was the gold standard)
4. The Giants were in a high enough draft position (4th overall) to be in a position to select Rivers (whom the Chargers also liked).
5. The Giants were willing to pay the rest of the trade compensation to pull off the deal.
If any one of those elements were missing, Eli Manning never ends up a Giant.
But since that happened, the Giants were able to add a bunch of players around him and they became two time Super bowl champs. But it started with superior draft position.