For the purposes of these questions, assume the following conditions:
A. A top slot WR and top nickel/slot CBs are considered starters, given the prevalence of 11 personnel and nickel defenses.
B. There will be no trades up or down in any round, nor will there be any trades for or away of players existing on rosters, so there will be no trading away Shenault or trading for DK Metcalf. What you now see as far as draft picks is what we will utilize in this draft.
With the above conditions in place:
1. How many new starters do you expect to come out of our free agency haul? Who are they?
2. How many immediate starters do you expect to come out of this draft?
3. Are there any guys drafted last year that did not start for whatever reason last year to be starters this year? Name them and if applicable, name their positions.
4. Given the number of new starters combined from the questions listed above, would you say that is a good or bad total? Why? Do you think the number of new starters is a reflection of a job well done in terms of player acquisition, a function of how bad the roster was in the first place, the need for newer players to fit the new schemes, or some combination? Will the players be clear upgrades or scheme fillers?
5. Do your expectations rise or fall depending upon who has the most sway in the draft room between Baalke or Pederson?
6. Would your expectations be any higher if Baalke had been fired or an EVP beeh placed above him as promised by Khan?
7. Of all of the positions deemed to be needs on this team, what's the one position you somehow think will not be addressed by round 3?
I will give my answers a little later. I want to hear your thoughts.
(04-02-2022, 04:54 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]For the purposes of these questions, assume the following conditions:
A. A top slot WR and top nickel/slot CBs are considered starters, given the prevalence of 11 personnel and nickel defenses.
B. There will be no trades up or down in any round, nor will there be any trades for or away of players existing on rosters, so there will be no trading away Shenault or trading for DK Metcalf. What you now see as far as draft picks is what we will utilize in this draft.
With the above conditions in place:
1. How many new starters do you expect to come out of our free agency haul? Who are they?
Scherff, Oluokon, Kirk, Darious Williams, Fatukasi, Ingram. Zay Jones maybe but probably just a top reserve.
2. How many immediate starters do you expect to come out of this draft?
Probably 2. I think once you get into the 3rd round, you're not looking at immediate starters.
3. Are there any guys drafted last year that did not start for whatever reason last year to be starters this year? Name them and if applicable, name their positions.
Andre Cisco, Travis Etienne.
4. Given the number of new starters combined from the questions listed above, would you say that is a good or bad total? Why? Do you think the number of new starters is a reflection of a job well done in terms of player acquisition, a function of how bad the roster was in the first place, the need for newer players to fit the new schemes, or some combination? Will the players be clear upgrades or scheme fillers?
I think our 2021 draft was okay. Not great, not bad. As for free agency this year, Scherff and Kirk are clear upgrades. Darious Williams is a clear upgrade over last year's 3rd CB. I'm not sure about the rest of them.
5. Do your expectations rise or fall depending upon who has the most sway in the draft room between Baalke or Pederson?
Not really, because I don't think one will have more sway than the other.
6. Would your expectations be any higher if Baalke had been fired or an EVP beeh placed above him as promised by Khan?
I'm not sure Khan "promised" an EVP, but regardless, I don't have any answer to your question, because I don't know who the EVP would have been or what his actual level of responsibility/oversight would have been.
7. Of all of the positions deemed to be needs on this team, what's the one position you somehow think will not be addressed by round 3?
linebacker. I really don't know what the team is thinking, but it seems like a dire need and I haven't seen much speculation about what we might do about it.
I will give my answers a little later. I want to hear your thoughts.
I would also add, so much of what you are asking involves pure speculation with no actual knowledge of what the Jags' brass is thinking.
In answering your questions about "starters," I considered anyone who would be on the field a majority of the game a "starter." Like Travis Etienne. He may not start the game, but I think, if healthy, he will be on the field for most of the game.
(04-02-2022, 09:13 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ] (04-02-2022, 04:54 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]For the purposes of these questions, assume the following conditions:
A. A top slot WR and top nickel/slot CBs are considered starters, given the prevalence of 11 personnel and nickel defenses.
B. There will be no trades up or down in any round, nor will there be any trades for or away of players existing on rosters, so there will be no trading away Shenault or trading for DK Metcalf. What you now see as far as draft picks is what we will utilize in this draft.
With the above conditions in place:
1. How many new starters do you expect to come out of our free agency haul? Who are they?
Scherff, Oluokon, Kirk, Darious Williams, Fatukasi, Ingram. Zay Jones maybe but probably just a top reserve.
2. How many immediate starters do you expect to come out of this draft?
Probably 2. I think once you get into the 3rd round, you're not looking at immediate starters.
3. Are there any guys drafted last year that did not start for whatever reason last year to be starters this year? Name them and if applicable, name their positions.
Andre Cisco, Travis Etienne.
4. Given the number of new starters combined from the questions listed above, would you say that is a good or bad total? Why? Do you think the number of new starters is a reflection of a job well done in terms of player acquisition, a function of how bad the roster was in the first place, the need for newer players to fit the new schemes, or some combination? Will the players be clear upgrades or scheme fillers?
I think our 2021 draft was okay. Not great, not bad. As for free agency this year, Scherff and Kirk are clear upgrades. Darious Williams is a clear upgrade over last year's 3rd CB. I'm not sure about the rest of them.
5. Do your expectations rise or fall depending upon who has the most sway in the draft room between Baalke or Pederson?
Not really, because I don't think one will have more sway than the other.
6. Would your expectations be any higher if Baalke had been fired or an EVP beeh placed above him as promised by Khan?
I'm not sure Khan "promised" an EVP, but regardless, I don't have any answer to your question, because I don't know who the EVP would have been or what his actual level of responsibility/oversight would have been.
7. Of all of the positions deemed to be needs on this team, what's the one position you somehow think will not be addressed by round 3?
linebacker. I really don't know what the team is thinking, but it seems like a dire need and I haven't seen much speculation about what we might do about it.
I will give my answers a little later. I want to hear your thoughts.
I would also add, so much of what you are asking involves pure speculation with no actual knowledge of what the Jags' brass is thinking.
In answering your questions about "starters," I considered anyone who would be on the field a majority of the game a "starter." Like Travis Etienne. He may not start the game, but I think, if healthy, he will be on the field for most of the game.
My answers are very similar. so I'll just mention where I vary from TRM or amend his responses here.
#2. - 2 starters is likely and I'm hoping optimistically it's 3 starters and maybe one more who takes over mid-to-late season
#3 - I'd add Little to that list
#4 - it's a combination of clear upgrades and scheme fits acquired. It reflects mostly on how bad the roster was - and doesn't necessarily signify "job well done" as much as "something had to be done."
If the '21 draft class excels this year, the '22 draft class at least starts at 2 spots and improves those positions
and the new FA haul make an impact --- THEN we can say
job well done.
#5. - Pederson seems to have already made impact in FA strategy - I expect he could aid draft as well
#6- same as Marty - would need to learn who and then learn about them to make any speculation informed
#7 I really don't have a good feel for which need may be placed on the back burner , but ILB2 and Safety could be later priorities - RB depth an honorable mention because I think they
should wait until day 3.
Thoughtful questions, Bullseye.
Yeah, I think those answers are pretty straightforward and the others summed up what I would say very similarly.
(04-02-2022, 09:13 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ] (04-02-2022, 04:54 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]For the purposes of these questions, assume the following conditions:
A. A top slot WR and top nickel/slot CBs are considered starters, given the prevalence of 11 personnel and nickel defenses.
B. There will be no trades up or down in any round, nor will there be any trades for or away of players existing on rosters, so there will be no trading away Shenault or trading for DK Metcalf. What you now see as far as draft picks is what we will utilize in this draft.
With the above conditions in place:
1. How many new starters do you expect to come out of our free agency haul? Who are they?
Scherff, Oluokon, Kirk, Darious Williams, Fatukasi, Ingram. Zay Jones maybe but probably just a top reserve.
2. How many immediate starters do you expect to come out of this draft?
Probably 2. I think once you get into the 3rd round, you're not looking at immediate starters.
3. Are there any guys drafted last year that did not start for whatever reason last year to be starters this year? Name them and if applicable, name their positions.
Andre Cisco, Travis Etienne.
4. Given the number of new starters combined from the questions listed above, would you say that is a good or bad total? Why? Do you think the number of new starters is a reflection of a job well done in terms of player acquisition, a function of how bad the roster was in the first place, the need for newer players to fit the new schemes, or some combination? Will the players be clear upgrades or scheme fillers?
I think our 2021 draft was okay. Not great, not bad. As for free agency this year, Scherff and Kirk are clear upgrades. Darious Williams is a clear upgrade over last year's 3rd CB. I'm not sure about the rest of them.
5. Do your expectations rise or fall depending upon who has the most sway in the draft room between Baalke or Pederson?
Not really, because I don't think one will have more sway than the other.
6. Would your expectations be any higher if Baalke had been fired or an EVP beeh placed above him as promised by Khan?
I'm not sure Khan "promised" an EVP, but regardless, I don't have any answer to your question, because I don't know who the EVP would have been or what his actual level of responsibility/oversight would have been.
7. Of all of the positions deemed to be needs on this team, what's the one position you somehow think will not be addressed by round 3?
linebacker. I really don't know what the team is thinking, but it seems like a dire need and I haven't seen much speculation about what we might do about it.
I will give my answers a little later. I want to hear your thoughts.
I would also add, so much of what you are asking involves pure speculation with no actual knowledge of what the Jags' brass is thinking.
In answering your questions about "starters," I considered anyone who would be on the field a majority of the game a "starter." Like Travis Etienne. He may not start the game, but I think, if healthy, he will be on the field for most of the game.
I will also start with Marty's as the base as I largely agree. My additional comments:
1. If we're using over 50% as the definition of a starter, I would predict Zay Jones as well. He'll surpass it as I think he'll likely start early in the year over a rookie and even if beat out mid-season, would still get significant playing time as a top reserve and a situational player
2. I agree with 2 immediate starters in the draft. I think we take Hutchinson who will start. I think an inside linebacker taken early would also be an immediate starter. I think a wide receiver and an interior offensive lineman would eventually become starters but may not win the job immediately against a veteran.
3. I would add Walker Little to the list of draft picks from last year that will probably move into a starting role this year.
4. The new starters this year are a combination of being a bad team last year and the fact that we had a lot of resources this year including a ton of salary cap space for free agents, extra draft picks and drafting first in each round. I don't see scheme change as a major factor. I largely see these as positions we would have wanted to upgrade anyway regardless of scheme.
5. I don't like Baalke, so I would consider Pederson's influence as a good thing, but I'm not sure I'm too focused on it. I'm confident that it will be a collaboration, so I think we're talking about shades of grey here.
6. I hated the decision to keep Baalke and will discuss it in a thread specifically related to him. However, I don't like being a "Negative Nancy". The decision on Baalke has been made. At this point, I largely work on the assumption that he will do the right thing. If he doesn't, I'll criticize him on draft day. As much as I dislike Baalke, honestly, my answer to these questions likely wouldn't be significantly different right now if we had someone else. You have to assume that the current GM will do the right thing.
7. Although I think we draft our center of the future, I don't think we draft our left guard of the future. I know you said one position, but I would also note for those that want us to draft a replacement safety for Jenkins that I don't think that is addressed either.
For the purposes of these questions, assume the following conditions:
A. A top slot WR and top nickel/slot CBs are considered starters, given the prevalence of 11 personnel and nickel defenses.
B. There will be no trades up or down in any round, nor will there be any trades for or away of players existing on rosters, so there will be no trading away Shenault or trading for DK Metcalf. What you now see as far as draft picks is what we will utilize in this draft.
With the above conditions in place:
1. How many new starters do you expect to come out of our free agency haul? Who are they?
Kirk, Engram, Scherff, Oluokun, Fatukasi, Williams, Zay Jones
2. How many immediate starters do you expect to come out of this draft?
Two or Three
3. Are there any guys drafted last year that did not start for whatever reason last year to be starters this year? Name them and if applicable, name their positions.
Cisco, Little
4. Given the number of new starters combined from the questions listed above, would you say that is a good or bad total? Why? Do you think the number of new starters is a reflection of a job well done in terms of player acquisition, a function of how bad the roster was in the first place, the need for newer players to fit the new schemes, or some combination? Will the players be clear upgrades or scheme fillers?
This is as good as we can hope for, I think. The other side is that the cupboard was so bare, the FO would almost have to be incompetent to not have significantly upgraded the starters in two off seasons. Scherff is a clear upgrade to Norwell. Oluokon is a scheme fit upgrade over Jack. Fatukasi is an upgrade over whatever rotation guy was playing at the time. Cisco is an upgrade over Dewey. Williams is an upgrade over Herndon/Ford/Whomever. Little is an upgrade over Taylor. Kirk is an upgrade over all our WRs. Engram is an upgrade over all our TEs. Zay Jones is an upgrade over the bag of undesirables that started after Chark went down.
Whoever the #1 pick is will be an upgrade, whether that is Hutchinson, Walker, Neal, or Ekwonu. If I’m the one pulling the trigger on #1, I almost need to flip a coin to choose between Hutchinson, Walker, or Neal. If we look back in 5 years at this draft, we will be pleased with either of those three. As much as I crave the kind of pass rush we could have with one of the edge players, if we choose Neal our OL is suddenly no longer a question mark. We have the fortress to protect Trevor. We could put out a very respectable starting five.
Whoever the #2 pick is would be a starter. For sake of argument, let’s say it’s Skyy Moore. While not a conventional X, if we’re in 11 personnel it’s the best 3 of Kirk, Marvin, Zay, and Skyy. It’s hard to say he could not beat Zay, or based on athleticism, Marvin. That may not take off the top on deep plays. But can you imagine what the short and intermediate game would look like?!
5. Do your expectations rise or fall depending upon who has the most sway in the draft room between Baalke or Pederson?
All signs point to significant input by Pederson. I expect his wishes to be respected.
6. Would your expectations be any higher if Baalke had been fired or an EVP beeh placed above him as promised by Khan?
Hard to say. I think the EVP would have been more a proxy for Shad’s lack of football judgment. He could have restrained some of Baalke’s worse impulses. But there are too many variables to answer well.
7. Of all of the positions deemed to be needs on this team, what's the one position you somehow think will not be addressed by round 3?
I think LB and Safety are the odd positions out. If Edge is taken at #1, the OL can be addressed in 3 and 4. There is some good depth at IOL. But if OT is taken at #1, then addressing Edge becomes much harder. We have to hope Mafe falls to #33. Otherwise, I don’t see a quality Edge available by round 3.
I will give my answers a little later. I want to hear your thoughts.
ok assignment complete. my thoughts for better or worse guys.
Bullseye1. How many new starters do you expect to come out of our free agency haul? Who are they?
I believe we will begin the year having all of them start at the beginning of the year. By Mid season Fatukasi and Aluokun will be rotational players. Key will supply depth. Zay Jones will fall into a receiver rotation.
2. How many immediate starters do you expect to come out of this draft?
None. Now that doesn't mean they will not play, they will just need some seasoning before consistency and trust is established. This will be a good thing guys, not a reflection of any of our selections. One or two will begin to flash and stand out in the second half of the season. This is highly dependent upon the injury situation that could force a couple into more predominate roles. I would view that as a negative....
3. Are there any guys drafted last year that did not start for whatever reason last year to be starters this year? Name them and if applicable, name their positions.
Obviously, Etienne and Cisco but, who knows here. I am really hoping Etienne provides the impact expected and Cisco lives up to the flashes seen last year. I am intrigued to see how Daniel Thomas does this year in this new system. (he also flashed, but on very limited play time) Add Little to this.
4. Given the number of new starters combined from the questions listed above, would you say that is a good or bad total? Why? Do you think the number of new starters is a reflection of a job well done in terms of player acquisition, a function of how bad the roster was in the first place, the need for newer players to fit the new schemes, or some combination? Will the players be clear upgrades or scheme fillers?
There is always increased turnover even at the college level when the HC is changed it is predictable and a normally a good thing. (we have had years of a good thing no?) Being a 3-14 team something clearly needed to be done but action can sometimes be confused with progress. Good or bad ? No one will know that answer till sometime during the season next year despite many on this proclaiming they did. I will say on the surface our roster appears to be improved on paper. The link below to see the acquisitions all in one place in a depth chart format. Disclaimer I am not responsible for who is listed as starter so take it with a grain of salt.....
https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/jax
5. Do your expectations rise or fall depending upon who has the most sway in the draft room between Baalke or Pederson?
Actually, since we will never really know how that works I just can't get myself to spend the effort worrying about it. I do believe we have a little more going for us this year. First, we totally rebuilt the scouting department last year so they had their hands full getting organized and getting ready for the draft. This year they have had a year to build their processes and acclimate. This should lead to better/consistent player evaluations. Second, I really do not believe Urban had much positive input to the process last year. When faced with having to make a decision or choose he thought more about how to delegate blame if the outcome was not positive. (corporate Teflon) Our new coach doesn't seem to have that weakness and isn't going to "spend a year" getting to know the Pro game.
6. Would your expectations be any higher if Baalke had been fired or an EVP beeh placed above him as promised by Khan?
We are Jaguar fans, EVERY draftee should always be all-pro their first year or they are a bust. How could they be higher? We live in a fantasy world during this time of the year because real life would make us pull our hair out! Last year we even were able as a group to convince our self the WR room was really strong!!
7. Of all of the positions deemed to be needs on this team, what's the one position you somehow think will not be addressed by round 3?
Center, right now I see that as our biggest immediate need. Shatley is our only center at the moment. He actually in my opinion is an average center currently. We do however need someone as backup. We have no one currently. I am also a bit concerned about the tackle position as CAM is a one year rental. ANY tackle coming out of college takes at least half a season to get acclimated to this level. Even our only HOF player took some time and I don't see anyone of Boselli's level. Next year is too late to address this. The current regime seems to me have sat down and made a comprehensive plan. They are moving along executing that plan and we just have to trust this will yield the results to get us where we want. It is getting interesting in a different way this year.
I will give my answers a little later. I want to hear your thoughts.
(04-02-2022, 09:13 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ] (04-02-2022, 04:54 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]For the purposes of these questions, assume the following conditions:
A. A top slot WR and top nickel/slot CBs are considered starters, given the prevalence of 11 personnel and nickel defenses.
B. There will be no trades up or down in any round, nor will there be any trades for or away of players existing on rosters, so there will be no trading away Shenault or trading for DK Metcalf. What you now see as far as draft picks is what we will utilize in this draft.
With the above conditions in place:
1. How many new starters do you expect to come out of our free agency haul? Who are they?
Scherff, Oluokon, Kirk, Darious Williams, Fatukasi, Ingram. Zay Jones maybe but probably just a top reserve.
2. How many immediate starters do you expect to come out of this draft?
Probably 2. I think once you get into the 3rd round, you're not looking at immediate starters.
3. Are there any guys drafted last year that did not start for whatever reason last year to be starters this year? Name them and if applicable, name their positions.
Andre Cisco, Travis Etienne.
4. Given the number of new starters combined from the questions listed above, would you say that is a good or bad total? Why? Do you think the number of new starters is a reflection of a job well done in terms of player acquisition, a function of how bad the roster was in the first place, the need for newer players to fit the new schemes, or some combination? Will the players be clear upgrades or scheme fillers?
I think our 2021 draft was okay. Not great, not bad. As for free agency this year, Scherff and Kirk are clear upgrades. Darious Williams is a clear upgrade over last year's 3rd CB. I'm not sure about the rest of them.
5. Do your expectations rise or fall depending upon who has the most sway in the draft room between Baalke or Pederson?
Not really, because I don't think one will have more sway than the other.
6. Would your expectations be any higher if Baalke had been fired or an EVP beeh placed above him as promised by Khan?
I'm not sure Khan "promised" an EVP, but regardless, I don't have any answer to your question, because I don't know who the EVP would have been or what his actual level of responsibility/oversight would have been.
7. Of all of the positions deemed to be needs on this team, what's the one position you somehow think will not be addressed by round 3?
linebacker. I really don't know what the team is thinking, but it seems like a dire need and I haven't seen much speculation about what we might do about it.
I will give my answers a little later. I want to hear your thoughts.
I would also add, so much of what you are asking involves pure speculation with no actual knowledge of what the Jags' brass is thinking.
In answering your questions about "starters," I considered anyone who would be on the field a majority of the game a "starter." Like Travis Etienne. He may not start the game, but I think, if healthy, he will be on the field for most of the game.
1. So we're talking maybe 6-7 new starters from free agency.
2. So maybe 2 starters from the draft.
3. Two other starters from last year's draft. So we're talking about half of the 22-24 starters (base personnel packages vs. Nickel packages) are changed within a year's time? I would add Walker Little to the list, upgrading one of the T positions-most likely Jawaan Taylor/
4. Scherff, Kirk and Williams are three good candidates to be upgrades from last year's roster. I'd also add Engram to that list, with the LB from Atlanta and the DL from the Jets to be candidates to upgrade the roster, depending upon who they are replacing. I could see the LB fom Atlanta being an upgrade over Jack, not due to size or athleticism but due to intelligence and instinct. I'm not sure the guy from the Jets, if a NT, would necessarily be an upgrade over Hamilton, as I like Hamilton. But I do like what little I've seen from the former Jet.
5. A distinct possibility, but I would tend to put more trust in Pederson than Baalke, since Pederson understands his schemes and their personnel requirements better than Baalke does (they are his schemes) and Baalke's history of drafting (especially offensive skill players) leaves much to be desired.
6. A fair response.
7. Assuming it would have been Minnesota's Spielman, I would expect more from him than Baalke.
These questions came to mind because it hit me how many possible new starters there was likely to be. At first blush it struck me as a lot of new starters, and I'm trying to make more sense of it and get a proper perspective. Is Baalke getting enough credit? How much improvement can we really expect because of the new players?
(04-02-2022, 01:43 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ] (04-02-2022, 04:54 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]For the purposes of these questions, assume the following conditions:
...
7. Of all of the positions deemed to be needs on this team, what's the one position you somehow think will not be addressed by round 3?
I don't think ILB, Safety or RB will be addressed until the 3rd day of the draft. I do expect DE/OLB, WR, TE and OG/C to be the needs filled in the first 3 rounds.
I will give my answers a little later. I want to hear your thoughts.
OLM, why do you think TE need would be prioritized ahead of ILB or Safety?
Just curious. All three spots have at least one good player with with some questions around their counterparts at the position, so do you think the draft class at TE dictates a pick in the first 3 rounds, or do you think the need at TE supersedes the need at the other two spots?
(04-02-2022, 09:39 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (04-02-2022, 09:13 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]I would also add, so much of what you are asking involves pure speculation with no actual knowledge of what the Jags' brass is thinking.
In answering your questions about "starters," I considered anyone who would be on the field a majority of the game a "starter." Like Travis Etienne. He may not start the game, but I think, if healthy, he will be on the field for most of the game.
My answers are very similar. so I'll just mention where I vary from TRM or amend his responses here.
#2. - 2 starters is likely and I'm hoping optimistically it's 3 starters and maybe one more who takes over mid-to-late season
#3 - I'd add Little to that list
#4 - it's a combination of clear upgrades and scheme fits acquired. It reflects mostly on how bad the roster was - and doesn't necessarily signify "job well done" as much as "something had to be done."
If the '21 draft class excels this year, the '22 draft class at least starts at 2 spots and improves those positions and the new FA haul make an impact --- THEN we can say job well done.
#5. - Pederson seems to have already made impact in FA strategy - I expect he could aid draft as well
#6- same as Marty - would need to learn who and then learn about them to make any speculation informed
#7 I really don't have a good feel for which need may be placed on the back burner , but ILB2 and Safety could be later priorities - RB depth an honorable mention because I think they should wait until day 3.
Thoughtful questions, Bullseye.
2. Given the state of the roster, I would hope maybe 3-4 starters (though whether these starters would represent upgrades is another matter). But given the talent ad different levels, that number could go higher if we nail the draft. If we extended the criteria to significant contributors, that number should go higher in terms of numerically and from a quality perspective. I'm just not sure if Baalke can be trusted to successfully mine that talent.
3. As would I. I think Little would be at the top of that list, and would be highly disappointed if he could not supplant at least Jawaan Taylor.
4. Agreed completely. Based on everything I've read thus far, Etienne will be healthy. If he is at his pre injury levels, I expect a great deal from Etienne, as Pederson's schemes utilize the RB a lot out of the backfield in the passing game, and that seems a very good match with Etienne's skill set.
Thank you. As I said these questions leapt to mind when I started processing how free agency went.
(04-03-2022, 09:13 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ] (04-02-2022, 09:13 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]I would also add, so much of what you are asking involves pure speculation with no actual knowledge of what the Jags' brass is thinking.
In answering your questions about "starters," I considered anyone who would be on the field a majority of the game a "starter." Like Travis Etienne. He may not start the game, but I think, if healthy, he will be on the field for most of the game.
1. So we're talking maybe 6-7 new starters from free agency.
2. So maybe 2 starters from the draft.
3. Two other starters from last year's draft. So we're talking about half of the 22-24 starters (base personnel packages vs. Nickel packages) are changed within a year's time? I would add Walker Little to the list, upgrading one of the T positions-most likely Jawaan Taylor/
4. Scherff, Kirk and Williams are three good candidates to be upgrades from last year's roster. I'd also add Engram to that list, with the LB from Atlanta and the DL from the Jets to be candidates to upgrade the roster, depending upon who they are replacing. I could see the LB fom Atlanta being an upgrade over Jack, not due to size or athleticism but due to intelligence and instinct. I'm not sure the guy from the Jets, if a NT, would necessarily be an upgrade over Hamilton, as I like Hamilton. But I do like what little I've seen from the former Jet.
5. A distinct possibility, but I would tend to put more trust in Pederson than Baalke, since Pederson understands his schemes and their personnel requirements better than Baalke does (they are his schemes) and Baalke's history of drafting (especially offensive skill players) leaves much to be desired.
6. A fair response.
7. Assuming it would have been Minnesota's Spielman, I would expect more from him than Baalke.
These questions came to mind because it hit me how many possible new starters there was likely to be. At first blush it struck me as a lot of new starters, and I'm trying to make more sense of it and get a proper perspective. Is Baalke getting enough credit? How much improvement can we really expect because of the new players?
There will be a big number of new starters and there should be.
They've placed last in their division in 4 consecutive seasons.
We just really don't know how many of them are clear upgrades and whether the proportion of improvement is enough to have meaningful impact.
As per usual with new regimes, I'm cautiously optimistic, but we've all seen maiden voyages crash violently upon the rocks a few times now.
Regarding the red bit on NT: I think Fatukasi should be a notable upgrade over Hamilton vs the run at nose tackle. Hamilton may have better upside on creating QB pressure/pocket collapse in the pass game though. Hopefully they find the optimum ways to distribute and rotate those guys.
(04-03-2022, 09:19 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]OLM, why do you think TE need would be prioritized ahead of ILB or Safety?
Just curious. All three spots have at least one good player with with some questions around their counterparts at the position, so do you think the draft class at TE dictates a pick in the first 3 rounds, or do you think the need at TE supersedes the need at the other two spots?
Quite simply, Pederson's offense revolves around the TE. We signed Evan Engram, but the reality of the situation is that he has only started every game in a season, just once in his career and he's only on a 1 year deal. If he can stay healthy, I believe he could be our most significant offseason acquisition, but even if he does, he probably leaves for greener pastures after the season. In Pederson's offense, he uses a lot of 2 TE sets. I'm not sold on Dan Arnold. He dropped several key passes last season and had fumble issues as well. I believe Pederson will want to draft a TE early on that fits his style of play to be the centerpiece of the future. This is a very good TE class and we need to take advantage of the talent rich pool. You normally don't see TE classes this deep. It would be beneficial for us to get our TE of the future from this class. Having Engram and Arnold would allow us to bring the rookie along slowly and allow him to develop without rushing him into a starting role, which could be very important in the long run. TE's normally take a while to reach their peak.
As far as ILB and Safety goes, my expectations are tempered. We cannot fix every major hole in one season. We have a major upgrade at ILB with the signing of Foye Oluokun and I believe the team is very high on Dylan Moses if he is 100%. I don't think we will completely ignore the ILB position, I just think we will wait until day 3 to address it. I think there will be very solid ILB's still available on day 3. They may not end up being superstars, but they could probably be significant upgrades over Damien Wilson and Myles Jack. One player to keep an eye on is how far Damone Clark falls. He was one of my top ILB prospects in this entire draft, but just had surgery to repair a herniated disc and will miss the entire 2022 season. I thought he would be taken anywhere from the late second round to somewhere in round 3, before the surgery. Now, if he falls into round 4, do we pull the trigger? I know Baalke has a reputation for taking injured players and in this case, I would see the benefit. I also like less heralded linebackers like Mike Rose of Iowa State, Diego [BLEEP] of Navy, D'Marco Jackson of Appalachian State and Kyron Johnson of Kansas who I have seen projected to move inside. I believe all of these guys could be in play on day 3.
As far as Safety, I believe this position is just less of a priority. The addition of Darious Williams should make our secondary better as a whole. I expect very good things from Andre Cisco now that Urban Meyer is gone. Cisco should've been starting last season. I also really like Rudy Ford as our top backup. He did some nice things last season. IMO, he should be starting opposite Cisco. I know Rayshawn Jenkins was a liability before getting injured, but he is still on a significant contract and I cannot see Baalke ditching him after one season. I believe this is an area that will have to wait until next season to be fully addressed. I think the addition of Williams and Cisco to the secondary should minimize the poor play of Jenkins. I believe we will draft a Safety very late, but we could still get production from that player. Guys like Tycen Anderson of Toledo, Bryan Cook of Cincinnati, Smoke Monday of Auburn, Yusuf Corker of Kentucky, J.T. Woods of Baylor and Dane Belton of Iowa could be targets in the later rounds.
(04-02-2022, 11:22 AM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ] (04-02-2022, 09:13 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]I would also add, so much of what you are asking involves pure speculation with no actual knowledge of what the Jags' brass is thinking.
In answering your questions about "starters," I considered anyone who would be on the field a majority of the game a "starter." Like Travis Etienne. He may not start the game, but I think, if healthy, he will be on the field for most of the game.
I will also start with Marty's as the base as I largely agree. My additional comments:
1. If we're using over 50% as the definition of a starter, I would predict Zay Jones as well. He'll surpass it as I think he'll likely start early in the year over a rookie and even if beat out mid-season, would still get significant playing time as a top reserve and a situational player
2. I agree with 2 immediate starters in the draft. I think we take Hutchinson who will start. I think an inside linebacker taken early would also be an immediate starter. I think a wide receiver and an interior offensive lineman would eventually become starters but may not win the job immediately against a veteran.
3. I would add Walker Little to the list of draft picks from last year that will probably move into a starting role this year.
4. The new starters this year are a combination of being a bad team last year and the fact that we had a lot of resources this year including a ton of salary cap space for free agents, extra draft picks and drafting first in each round. I don't see scheme change as a major factor. I largely see these as positions we would have wanted to upgrade anyway regardless of scheme.
5. I don't like Baalke, so I would consider Pederson's influence as a good thing, but I'm not sure I'm too focused on it. I'm confident that it will be a collaboration, so I think we're talking about shades of grey here.
6. I hated the decision to keep Baalke and will discuss it in a thread specifically related to him. However, I don't like being a "Negative Nancy". The decision on Baalke has been made. At this point, I largely work on the assumption that he will do the right thing. If he doesn't, I'll criticize him on draft day. As much as I dislike Baalke, honestly, my answer to these questions likely wouldn't be significantly different right now if we had someone else. You have to assume that the current GM will do the right thing.
7. Although I think we draft our center of the future, I don't think we draft our left guard of the future. I know you said one position, but I would also note for those that want us to draft a replacement safety for Jenkins that I don't think that is addressed either.
1. I would say based solely upon his prominence as a free agent, Jones could be a starter, though I don't have much faith in him (Zay Jones) at this stage.
2. We are in agreement about ILB. I think one thing Baalke has proven able to identify over the years, especially in the middle rounds, is linebacker (Navarro Bowman). As I theorized in a different thread, ILB is deep in this draft.
3. Agreed.
4. Agreed mostly with your analysis, here, with minor differences regarding the relationship between scheme and the changes in starters. The roster was so bad, we would have wanted to upgrade the positions anyway, I think scheme played a role in terms of the importance placed on different positions (i.e. Pederson's offense emphasizing the TE position). How long as this team needed to improve the TE position?
5. Fair answer, though I might caution against putting too much faith in the collaboration between Baalke and Pederson. Baalke supposedly did not collaborate with many of the other coaches in San Francisco.
7. That answer is somewhat curious, especially since Pederson has placed so much emphasis in the trenches throughout the offseason thus far. But of course, we have so many needs and, at the moment only 4 picks in the first three rounds, some position might go lower than one might think.
(04-02-2022, 11:22 AM)I am Yoda Wrote: [ -> ]For the purposes of these questions, assume the following conditions:
A. A top slot WR and top nickel/slot CBs are considered starters, given the prevalence of 11 personnel and nickel defenses.
B. There will be no trades up or down in any round, nor will there be any trades for or away of players existing on rosters, so there will be no trading away Shenault or trading for DK Metcalf. What you now see as far as draft picks is what we will utilize in this draft.
With the above conditions in place:
1. How many new starters do you expect to come out of our free agency haul? Who are they?
Kirk, Engram, Scherff, Oluokun, Fatukasi, Williams, Zay Jones
2. How many immediate starters do you expect to come out of this draft?
Two or Three
3. Are there any guys drafted last year that did not start for whatever reason last year to be starters this year? Name them and if applicable, name their positions.
Cisco, Little
4. Given the number of new starters combined from the questions listed above, would you say that is a good or bad total? Why? Do you think the number of new starters is a reflection of a job well done in terms of player acquisition, a function of how bad the roster was in the first place, the need for newer players to fit the new schemes, or some combination? Will the players be clear upgrades or scheme fillers?
This is as good as we can hope for, I think. The other side is that the cupboard was so bare, the FO would almost have to be incompetent to not have significantly upgraded the starters in two off seasons. Scherff is a clear upgrade to Norwell. Oluokon is a scheme fit upgrade over Jack. Fatukasi is an upgrade over whatever rotation guy was playing at the time. Cisco is an upgrade over Dewey. Williams is an upgrade over Herndon/Ford/Whomever. Little is an upgrade over Taylor. Kirk is an upgrade over all our WRs. Engram is an upgrade over all our TEs. Zay Jones is an upgrade over the bag of undesirables that started after Chark went down.
Whoever the #1 pick is will be an upgrade, whether that is Hutchinson, Walker, Neal, or Ekwonu. If I’m the one pulling the trigger on #1, I almost need to flip a coin to choose between Hutchinson, Walker, or Neal. If we look back in 5 years at this draft, we will be pleased with either of those three. As much as I crave the kind of pass rush we could have with one of the edge players, if we choose Neal our OL is suddenly no longer a question mark. We have the fortress to protect Trevor. We could put out a very respectable starting five.
Whoever the #2 pick is would be a starter. For sake of argument, let’s say it’s Skyy Moore. While not a conventional X, if we’re in 11 personnel it’s the best 3 of Kirk, Marvin, Zay, and Skyy. It’s hard to say he could not beat Zay, or based on athleticism, Marvin. That may not take off the top on deep plays. But can you imagine what the short and intermediate game would look like?!
5. Do your expectations rise or fall depending upon who has the most sway in the draft room between Baalke or Pederson?
All signs point to significant input by Pederson. I expect his wishes to be respected.
6. Would your expectations be any higher if Baalke had been fired or an EVP beeh placed above him as promised by Khan?
Hard to say. I think the EVP would have been more a proxy for Shad’s lack of football judgment. He could have restrained some of Baalke’s worse impulses. But there are too many variables to answer well.
7. Of all of the positions deemed to be needs on this team, what's the one position you somehow think will not be addressed by round 3?
I think LB and Safety are the odd positions out. If Edge is taken at #1, the OL can be addressed in 3 and 4. There is some good depth at IOL. But if OT is taken at #1, then addressing Edge becomes much harder. We have to hope Mafe falls to #33. Otherwise, I don’t see a quality Edge available by round 3.
I will give my answers a little later. I want to hear your thoughts.
1-3 So about 12-13 new starters?
4. To the extent your answer focuses on the draft, and in large part I agree with your analysis. I'm not as big of a fan of Skyy Moore as some, I could see him being a productive receiver given the right system. As for the free agents, though I think Scherff will play RG and be a direct upgrade over Cann and Bartch, I think irrespective of whether he played LG or RG, he would be an upgrade over the starter's last year. As I indicated Earlier, Oluokn might be better than Jack from an intelligence and instinctual standpoint, and his ability to create turnovers, but I can't say he's a better scheme fit from a size/athleticism standpoint at this point. Fatukasi? I'm still wondering where he will play. I think our run defense will be better, wherever he plays, but at this point, I might want him at one of the DE positions. It seems the overwhelming majority of Jaguars fans feel like Cisco would be an upgrade over Wingard. It makes me wonder what in the hell UM was thinking all last year. He implied that Cisco was having problems grasping the defense, but when I saw him play, he was always around the ball and in position to make a play...not out of position-which is what you might expect if he didn't grasp the scheme concepts. As for Zay Jones, when you put it like that you may have a point, though for some reason, perhaps against my better judgment, I still think Treadwell can still be a productive player. But could you clarify your opening take? If your eval of this offseason is "as good as can be expected" and that the FO would have to be incompetent if it didn't have any new starters in two seasons, then is there no middle ground between no new starters and 12-13? Could the team have not gotten better players than the ones they got (Amari Cooper over Christian Kirk?)
5. I hope you are right and both guys collaborate effectively to get the picks right.
7. Under the right circumstances, I could see TE falling to round four or five. I think Engram isn't a traditional Y, but still represents an upgrade over what was already here. But at the moment, I still think we need a pure Y. I think the TE position is deep this year, and I think Pederson can identify the talent at that position.
(04-02-2022, 01:24 PM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]ok assignment complete. my thoughts for better or worse guys.
Bullseye1. How many new starters do you expect to come out of our free agency haul? Who are they?
I believe we will begin the year having all of them start at the beginning of the year. By Mid season Fatukasi and Aluokun will be rotational players. Key will supply depth. Zay Jones will fall into a receiver rotation.
2. How many immediate starters do you expect to come out of this draft?
None. Now that doesn't mean they will not play, they will just need some seasoning before consistency and trust is established. This will be a good thing guys, not a reflection of any of our selections. One or two will begin to flash and stand out in the second half of the season. This is highly dependent upon the injury situation that could force a couple into more predominate roles. I would view that as a negative....
3. Are there any guys drafted last year that did not start for whatever reason last year to be starters this year? Name them and if applicable, name their positions.
Obviously, Etienne and Cisco but, who knows here. I am really hoping Etienne provides the impact expected and Cisco lives up to the flashes seen last year. I am intrigued to see how Daniel Thomas does this year in this new system. (he also flashed, but on very limited play time) Add Little to this.
4. Given the number of new starters combined from the questions listed above, would you say that is a good or bad total? Why? Do you think the number of new starters is a reflection of a job well done in terms of player acquisition, a function of how bad the roster was in the first place, the need for newer players to fit the new schemes, or some combination? Will the players be clear upgrades or scheme fillers?
There is always increased turnover even at the college level when the HC is changed it is predictable and a normally a good thing. (we have had years of a good thing no?) Being a 3-14 team something clearly needed to be done but action can sometimes be confused with progress. Good or bad ? No one will know that answer till sometime during the season next year despite many on this proclaiming they did. I will say on the surface our roster appears to be improved on paper. The link below to see the acquisitions all in one place in a depth chart format. Disclaimer I am not responsible for who is listed as starter so take it with a grain of salt.....
https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/jax
5. Do your expectations rise or fall depending upon who has the most sway in the draft room between Baalke or Pederson?
Actually, since we will never really know how that works I just can't get myself to spend the effort worrying about it. I do believe we have a little more going for us this year. First, we totally rebuilt the scouting department last year so they had their hands full getting organized and getting ready for the draft. This year they have had a year to build their processes and acclimate. This should lead to better/consistent player evaluations. Second, I really do not believe Urban had much positive input to the process last year. When faced with having to make a decision or choose he thought more about how to delegate blame if the outcome was not positive. (corporate Teflon) Our new coach doesn't seem to have that weakness and isn't going to "spend a year" getting to know the Pro game.
6. Would your expectations be any higher if Baalke had been fired or an EVP beeh placed above him as promised by Khan?
We are Jaguar fans, EVERY draftee should always be all-pro their first year or they are a bust. How could they be higher? We live in a fantasy world during this time of the year because real life would make us pull our hair out! Last year we even were able as a group to convince our self the WR room was really strong!!
7. Of all of the positions deemed to be needs on this team, what's the one position you somehow think will not be addressed by round 3?
Center, right now I see that as our biggest immediate need. Shatley is our only center at the moment. He actually in my opinion is an average center currently. We do however need someone as backup. We have no one currently. I am also a bit concerned about the tackle position as CAM is a one year rental. ANY tackle coming out of college takes at least half a season to get acclimated to this level. Even our only HOF player took some time and I don't see anyone of Boselli's level. Next year is too late to address this. The current regime seems to me have sat down and made a comprehensive plan. They are moving along executing that plan and we just have to trust this will yield the results to get us where we want. It is getting interesting in a different way this year.
I will give my answers a little later. I want to hear your thoughts.
1. A curious answer on a couple of levels. First, why do you think Oluokun, Fatukasi and Zay Jones will be demoted by midseason? You indicate they will be starters early on, but fall into a rotation? Are starters incapable of being in a rotation? Second,how many new starters do you think we have from this free agency class? Are you counting these three that will fall into various rotations as starters or no? What of the remaining free agents?
2. If after drafting at the top of each round, this team doesn't have any new starters coming out of the draft, that would be very disappointing to me, unless you were to suggest that Pederson didn't believe in starting rookies. But that would be problematic for me as the season wore on. At minimum, there would be worry about whether thee guys were busts.
3. First time I've seen Daniel Thomas included in this. An interesting choice. He has flashed some.
4. "...action can sometimes be confused with progress." I like that quote!
5. Fair enough.
6.
.gif "Laughing")
Spoken like a true Jaguars fan!
7. I am concerned about what is planned at LT.
(04-02-2022, 01:41 PM)ATLjag Wrote: [ -> ] (04-02-2022, 04:54 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]For the purposes of these questions, assume the following conditions:
A. A top slot WR and top nickel/slot CBs are considered starters, given the prevalence of 11 personnel and nickel defenses.
B. There will be no trades up or down in any round, nor will there be any trades for or away of players existing on rosters, so there will be no trading away Shenault or trading for DK Metcalf. What you now see as far as draft picks is what we will utilize in this draft.
With the above conditions in place:
1. How many new starters do you expect to come out of our free agency haul? Who are they?
Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Brandon Scherff, Evan Engram, Foley Fotukasi, Foye Oluokun, and Darious Williams (7 external free agents, 9 counting Shatley and Robinson).
2. How many immediate starters do you expect to come out of this draft?
Edge, guard, and kicker (3). Possibly 4 if a valued inside LB slipped to them in day 2.
3. Are there any guys drafted last year that did not start for whatever reason last year to be starters this year? Name them and if applicable, name their positions.
Including not starters at beginning or most of last year....Andre Cisco (S), Walker Little (RT), and Travis Etienne (RB).
4. Given the number of new starters combined from the questions listed above, would you say that is a good or bad total? Good. Why? Previous starters only won 4 games in 2 years. Do you think the number of new starters is a reflection of a job well done in terms of player acquisition, a function of how bad the roster was in the first place, the need for newer players to fit the new schemes, or some combination? Mostly a reflection of how bad the roster was. Will the players be clear upgrades or scheme fillers? These guys are largely upgrades, even if not pro bowlers.
5. Do your expectations rise or fall depending upon who has the most sway in the draft room between Baalke or Pederson? No.
6. Would your expectations be any higher if Baalke had been fired or an EVP placed above him as promised by Khan? No.
7. Of all of the positions deemed to be needs on this team, what's the one position you somehow think will not be addressed by round 3? a RB for insurance, and a S opposite Cisco.
I will give my answers a little later. I want to hear your thoughts.
See above and within.
2, Woah! You think we draft a kicker?!? You think people were upset we drafted a RB in round 1?!? Talk about shades of Bryan Anger!
3. Those ar my guys from the 21 draft that should ascend to starting roles.
4. If the guys are likely upgrades, even if not pro bowlers, how much better do you think the team will be? You don't necesarily need to project a record, per se, but do you think it'll be noticeable?
7. I could easily see a RB for insurance to be drafted in the 4th round.
(04-02-2022, 01:43 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ] (04-02-2022, 04:54 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]For the purposes of these questions, assume the following conditions:
A. A top slot WR and top nickel/slot CBs are considered starters, given the prevalence of 11 personnel and nickel defenses.
B. There will be no trades up or down in any round, nor will there be any trades for or away of players existing on rosters, so there will be no trading away Shenault or trading for DK Metcalf. What you now see as far as draft picks is what we will utilize in this draft.
With the above conditions in place:
1. How many new starters do you expect to come out of our free agency haul? Who are they?
Five. Brandon Scherff, Foye Oluokun, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and Darious Williams
2. How many immediate starters do you expect to come out of this draft?
I would hope three at the bare minimum. I would really like to see more like 5 new starters. If I had my way, we'd have all new starters at WR.
3. Are there any guys drafted last year that did not start for whatever reason last year to be starters this year? Name them and if applicable, name their positions.
I think Walker Little will start at RT and Andre Cisco will start at Safety. I believe Etienne will be put into a RB rotation with Robinson once both are healthy, so two.
4. Given the number of new starters combined from the questions listed above, would you say that is a good or bad total? Why? Do you think the number of new starters is a reflection of a job well done in terms of player acquisition, a function of how bad the roster was in the first place, the need for newer players to fit the new schemes, or some combination? Will the players be clear upgrades or scheme fillers?
No, I think the fact that we need that many new starters reflects that we have done a terrible job at player acquisition both in the draft and free agency. I believe some will be good like Scherff, Oluokun and Williams and Kirk is a scheme filler. With Engram, it will all depend on whether he can stay healthy. If he can, he has a chance to be our best free agent pickup.
5. Do your expectations rise or fall depending upon who has the most sway in the draft room between Baalke or Pederson?
Yes. As I have said on many occasions, I have zero faith in Baalke. He has made terrible draft picks in the past. I am hoping Pederson has more sway. That's my only hope.
6. Would your expectations be any higher if Baalke had been fired or an EVP beeh placed above him as promised by Khan?
Yes. MUCH, MUCH higher.
7. Of all of the positions deemed to be needs on this team, what's the one position you somehow think will not be addressed by round 3?
I don't think ILB, Safety or RB will be addressed until the 3rd day of the draft. I do expect DE/OLB, WR, TE and OG/C to be the needs filled in the first 3 rounds.
I will give my answers a little later. I want to hear your thoughts.
1. I wonder if we share the same concerns about Fatukasi regarding where he will play in relation to Hamilton.
2. Five starters from the draft?!? While I would be happy with that, can Baalke be trusted to deliver that? I think we'd be okay with one rookie starter at WR if it's the right guy (Christian Watson or Burks perhaps?
3. So in sum..about 12 new starters? How much better do you think that would make us, if at all?
4. Agreed largely, especially with Engram. But I would add that whether his productivity would be maximized would depend on adding a competent Y. Simply sticking a guy like Manhertz out there would negate most of the benefit of running a two TE set. I think on pasing routes, teams would largely ignore Manhertz and place most of the attention on Engram.
(04-03-2022, 09:34 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (04-03-2022, 09:13 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]These questions came to mind because it hit me how many possible new starters there was likely to be. At first blush it struck me as a lot of new starters, and I'm trying to make more sense of it and get a proper perspective. Is Baalke getting enough credit? How much improvement can we really expect because of the new players?
As per usual with new regimes, I'm cautiously optimistic, but we've all seen maiden voyages crash violently upon the rocks a few times now.
Regarding the red bit on NT: I think Fatukasi should be a notable upgrade over Hamilton vs the run at nose tackle. Hamilton may have better upside on creating QB pressure/pocket collapse in the pass game though. Hopefully they find the optimum ways to distribute and rotate those guys.
Man...don't Jaguars fans knit it about maiden voyages?!?
I could see that run stuffing vs pass rushing distinction. To me, I would think that means Fatukasi would start and maybe Hamilton might be moved to end, since the coaches have repeatedly stated the defensive emphasis will be on stopping the run.