(02-04-2024, 09:56 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (02-04-2024, 08:55 PM)cland Wrote: [ -> ]Hehe, do I need one? We're browsing an NFL site in the off-season, it'll get a whole lot more pointless, I'm sure. If you don't like the specific question, what stats would you expect Trevor to put up in that scenario?
If the line is dead average in pass pro and run blk - and TL stays healthy - he should put up numbers that show a marked improvement over the 22/23 seasons.
A few more TDs , a few less INTs , and a few hundred more yards at least.
This all feels super obvious
I'm just curious to see where everyone's "floor" is, particularly because the leading answer in the poll is 'Not Yet! I need to see more. Questions on his game!*'
So your at ~24 TD ~11 INT ~4,316 yards, any update on passer rating or fumbles?
(02-04-2024, 10:29 PM)cland Wrote: [ -> ] (02-04-2024, 09:56 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]If the line is dead average in pass pro and run blk - and TL stays healthy - he should put up numbers that show a marked improvement over the 22/23 seasons.
A few more TDs , a few less INTs , and a few hundred more yards at least.
This all feels super obvious
I'm just curious to see where everyone's "floor" is, particularly because the leading answer in the poll is 'Not Yet! I need to see more. Questions on his game!*'
So your at ~24 TD ~11 INT ~4,316 yards, any update on passer rating or fumbles?
Hall of Fame QB Brett Favre had 508 TDs and 336 Ints with a passer rating of 86.0 and 54 fumbles (+72,000 yards in 20 years). The times were a bit different then as the NFL has become more favorable toward the QB and WRs.
If the Jags were a historically winning franchise, I'd demand more. Since we're the Jags, pretty much the worst team in the NFL from 2010 to 2020, I'd have to say that I'm satisfied with just knowing we have a top 10 QB for the next 10 years and will always be in the playoff/SB hunt, even though we were hoping for a generational QB like Manning or Brady.
That said, at minimum, I'd like to see 27 TDs, 8 Ints, 4200 yards per season, 90 passer rating ...... and for him to continue to use his running skills to get 1st downs as he has done in the past (which I think is a huge benefit which he tends to overlook on occasion).
(02-04-2024, 10:29 PM)cland Wrote: [ -> ] (02-04-2024, 09:56 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]If the line is dead average in pass pro and run blk - and TL stays healthy - he should put up numbers that show a marked improvement over the 22/23 seasons.
A few more TDs , a few less INTs , and a few hundred more yards at least.
This all feels super obvious
I'm just curious to see where everyone's "floor" is, particularly because the leading answer in the poll is 'Not Yet! I need to see more. Questions on his game!*'
So your at ~24 TD ~11 INT ~4,316 yards, any update on passer rating or fumbles?
I would expect an improvement on the 2022 season numbers, somewhere in the range of 4,500 yards, 30 TDs with single digit INTs. If he does that with those other improvements listed then this is an 11 or 12 win team every season and we're likely taking the division most of the time. If he realizes his potential then those numbers go up by 7 - 10 scores and we're a dominant force in the NFL for a decade. If he's the same as 2023 with those improvements, which as we saw in 2022 is unlikely, we're hopefully cleaning house and getting rid of everyone. That last scenario is relatively absurd as others have mentioned.
(02-05-2024, 09:33 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ] (02-04-2024, 10:29 PM)cland Wrote: [ -> ]I'm just curious to see where everyone's "floor" is, particularly because the leading answer in the poll is 'Not Yet! I need to see more. Questions on his game!*'
So your at ~24 TD ~11 INT ~4,316 yards, any update on passer rating or fumbles?
I would expect an improvement on the 2022 season numbers, somewhere in the range of 4,500 yards, 30 TDs with single digit INTs. If he does that with those other improvements listed then this is an 11 or 12 win team every season and we're likely taking the division most of the time. If he realizes his potential then those numbers go up by 7 - 10 scores and we're a dominant force in the NFL for a decade. If he's the same as 2023 with those improvements, which as we saw in 2022 is unlikely, we're hopefully cleaning house and getting rid of everyone. That last scenario is relatively absurd as others have mentioned.
It's the fumbles that are killing him. INTs happen and it's not always the QBs fault. Fumbles are always their fault. Well unless the RB screws up on a handoff
(02-04-2024, 10:29 PM)cland Wrote: [ -> ] (02-04-2024, 09:56 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]If the line is dead average in pass pro and run blk - and TL stays healthy - he should put up numbers that show a marked improvement over the 22/23 seasons.
A few more TDs , a few less INTs , and a few hundred more yards at least.
This all feels super obvious
I'm just curious to see where everyone's "floor" is, particularly because the leading answer in the poll is 'Not Yet! I need to see more. Questions on his game!*'
So your at ~24 TD ~11 INT ~4,316 yards, any update on passer rating or fumbles?
Yawn
The 'poll' has 111 votes from "guests" of the forum. Most of which are in the "not yet" column.
I don't really give a [BLEEP] about projecting the kids numbers. I want to see him get a decent line in front of him and I know his efficiency will improve enough to compete for the division and beyond.
I don't really care what his stat line looks like. I know he's talented, I know what his weaknesses are too. But most importantly - I know he's getting screwed by crap line play.
Just get the kid a pocket to work from for 2.5 seconds on at least half of his attempts and things will look different.
(02-04-2024, 01:59 PM)cland Wrote: [ -> ]Here's an unrealistic hypothetical that I think is interesting. What if in the 2024 season all the pieces of the Offensive team (except for Trevor) are exactly average, in all stats (next-gen included,) and the OL ranks at #16, the WR performance/drops are at #16, no injuries to Trevor Lawrence, the running game is at #16, etc. and Trevor Lawrence puts up the exact yearly numbers he did in 2023.
Would Trevor Lawrence with a passer rating of 88.5 with 4,016 yards, 21 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and 12 fumbles in 16 games (I didn't modify for the game he missed) impact your current view of Trevor as your long-term/franchise QB and your opinion on whether the Jaguars need to resign him?
where are we in the standings? How bad are the picks/fumbles (Is he throwing picks six to defenders waiting to jump a lazy pass, is he just bobbling the ball like he did on that singular scramble against the Ravens, or are these bad snaps, blown blocks or WR tip drills leading to a stat on the QB sheet not entirely his cause?)
Do you have any foreseeable prospect of replacing him with better play for less than what you plan to offer/sign?
If you let him walk, and hit the reset button, how does that impact the rest of the franchise (can we expect to bring in FA, will current players want out as well)?
If we keep him, how does that impact the rest of the franchise (can we expect to bring in FA, will current players want out)?
we resign him, but we don't have to set the market. There's a whole bunch more to the picture than a stat sheet.
So sure, it would impact my view, but anyone saying any stat sheet doesn't impact their view is either going into the conversation with unchanging bias or lying.
(02-04-2024, 02:32 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (02-04-2024, 01:59 PM)cland Wrote: [ -> ]Here's an unrealistic hypothetical that I think is interesting. What if in the 2024 season all the pieces of the Offensive team (except for Trevor) are exactly average, in all stats (next-gen included,) and the OL ranks at #16, the WR performance/drops are at #16, no injuries to Trevor Lawrence, the running game is at #16, etc. and Trevor Lawrence puts up the exact yearly numbers he did in 2023.
Would Trevor Lawrence with a passer rating of 88.5 with 4,016 yards, 21 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and 12 fumbles in 16 games (I didn't modify for the game he missed) impact your current view of Trevor as your long-term/franchise QB and your opinion on whether the Jaguars need to resign him?
What you're saying is take Lawrence's time to throw from a 2.19 second average up to a 2.53 second average and give him a pocket to step into about 50% of his drop backs instead of 10% of his drop backs -- plus add a functional running game due to the OL improvement you outlined -- and then he is supposed to just put up the same numbers?
Minus 4 injuries to said QB?
You were right about the "unrealistic" part, LOL
May as well say "what if chickens had silent flight like owls with laser beams shooting out of their butts?"
I could be talked into an animal that lays pre-fried eggs.
I have abstained from voting thusfar as corn was not made an option. The poll is flawed.
I still think Trevor can be our franchise guy. My concern is giving him top 5 QB money when he isn't earning it yet. Do I think he can earn it with a better O-Line? I think he could. Do I want to risk it? No.
The O-Line has to be our priority in FA and the draft. We need 1 or 2 guys in FA and then we need to draft some more. I'm hesitant to draft 3 new starters, but I sure as hell don't want our current starters.
My priority this off-season is re-signing Josh Allen and getting O-Line help in FA. Unless we are getting Trevor at a top 10 contract this offseason, I'd rather just wait until next season and give him the top contract if his play improves with a better O-Line. It's not like we are going to keep him at a discount if we resign him this offseason since better play is going to demand a restructure just like Mahomes is getting.
(02-05-2024, 10:29 AM)snarkyguy_he_him_his Wrote: [ -> ] (02-05-2024, 09:33 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]I would expect an improvement on the 2022 season numbers, somewhere in the range of 4,500 yards, 30 TDs with single digit INTs. If he does that with those other improvements listed then this is an 11 or 12 win team every season and we're likely taking the division most of the time. If he realizes his potential then those numbers go up by 7 - 10 scores and we're a dominant force in the NFL for a decade. If he's the same as 2023 with those improvements, which as we saw in 2022 is unlikely, we're hopefully cleaning house and getting rid of everyone. That last scenario is relatively absurd as others have mentioned.
It's the fumbles that are killing him. INTs happen and it's not always the QBs fault. Fumbles are always their fault. Well unless the RB screws up on a handoff
So a blind side strip sack on a whiffed block ‘is the QBs fault’? Gotcha.
Wait until next year. I still think he can be really really good but we need better line play. He was hurt a lot the last third of the season. If i thought he would take a real team friendly deal this year i would consider it as i think another Allen situation is fairly likely.
(02-05-2024, 05:19 PM)RicoTx Wrote: [ -> ] (02-05-2024, 10:29 AM)snarkyguy_he_him_his Wrote: [ -> ]It's the fumbles that are killing him. INTs happen and it's not always the QBs fault. Fumbles are always their fault. Well unless the RB screws up on a handoff
So a blind side strip sack on a whiffed block ‘is the QBs fault’? Gotcha.
Pocket awareness?
Just saying fumbles are preventable, INTs can be affected by a dozen different variables.
(02-06-2024, 09:35 AM)snarkyguy_he_him_his Wrote: [ -> ] (02-05-2024, 05:19 PM)RicoTx Wrote: [ -> ]So a blind side strip sack on a whiffed block ‘is the QBs fault’? Gotcha.
Pocket awareness?
Just saying fumbles are preventable, INTs can be affected by a dozen different variables.
LOL. Pocket awareness. So is it just Lawrence that needs ‘pocket awareness’ on a blindside sack and fumble because ALL quarterbacks do it.
Lawrence needs more hot pockets. He's too lean. More hot pockets this off season could help beef up his frame so his injuries are minimal. Need to get on that Kansas City BBQ kick that obviously Patrick Mahomes is into.
(02-07-2024, 08:30 AM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]Lawrence needs more hot pockets. He's too lean. More hot pockets this off season could help beef up his frame so his injuries are minimal. Need to get on that Kansas City BBQ kick that obviously Patrick Mahomes is into.
What would help the most is if he didn't get hit 40 times a game.
What the hell happened to Kay Adams' face?
(02-07-2024, 10:56 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]What the hell happened to Kay Adams' face?
I know right she was perfect. Now looks like another plastic doll.