(07-15-2024, 09:37 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]I like BTJ but I suspect that Gabe Davis will have a Zay Jones-like increase in his numbers this year.
Zay Jones
2021 - 47 for 546 with 1 TD
2022 - 82 for 823 with 5 TDs
Gabe Davis
2023 - 45 for 746 with 7 TDs
2024 - 80 for 1,100 with 12 TDs?
It's possible. Especially if they can get that running game going. I still think Thomas Jr. is going to turn some heads this year. He's hell of an athlete with great body control, especially along the sideline and inside the redzone. He'll get off to a slow start, but, by around midseason, I expect him to be the guy that Lawrence favors and throws bombs at.
(07-15-2024, 09:37 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]I like BTJ but I suspect that Gabe Davis will have a Zay Jones-like increase in his numbers this year.
Zay Jones
2021 - 47 for 546 with 1 TD
2022 - 82 for 823 with 5 TDs
Gabe Davis
2023 - 45 for 746 with 7 TDs
2024 - 80 for 1,100 with 12 TDs?
eh, I kinda think Gabe may be maxed out, especially with as many weapons as we have looking for targets. We should also consider Zay only started half of the games in 2021, so he certainly was less a focal point in Vegas than he was here. Not like he suddenly figgered out how to play WR once he transitioned from Carr to TLaw. We just gave him much more opportunity to produce.
Davis has reliably been a 700-yard guy in his four seasons, a moderate bump to 900
might be plausible, but that's likely going to mean either EE or Kirk or BTJ aren't getting nearly the stats we'd expect from them in trade. NGL, if he keeps up 750 and 7 over the next several years, that's meaningful contribution that I'd be happy to have.
(07-15-2024, 04:39 PM)Mikey Wrote: [ -> ] (07-15-2024, 09:37 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]I like BTJ but I suspect that Gabe Davis will have a Zay Jones-like increase in his numbers this year.
Zay Jones
2021 - 47 for 546 with 1 TD
2022 - 82 for 823 with 5 TDs
Gabe Davis
2023 - 45 for 746 with 7 TDs
2024 - 80 for 1,100 with 12 TDs?
eh, I kinda think Gabe may be maxed out, especially with as many weapons as we have looking for targets. We should also consider Zay only started half of the games in 2021, so he certainly was less a focal point in Vegas than he was here. Not like he suddenly figgered out how to play WR once he transitioned from Carr to TLaw. We just gave him much more opportunity to produce.
Davis has reliably been a 700-yard guy in his four seasons, a moderate bump to 900 might be plausible, but that's likely going to mean either EE or Kirk or BTJ aren't getting nearly the stats we'd expect from them in trade. NGL, if he keeps up 750 and 7 over the next several years, that's meaningful contribution that I'd be happy to have.
Jones was a 7th year guy coming here and mostly seen as an afterthought signing who broke out in a better setting. Davis has been much more viable in his old offense than Jones and I think moving to the superior Pederson playbook will create the scenario I talked about. BTJ will have every opportunity, but Davis has already shown capability, now he gets to step into a better situation and I think that translates to a big year while BTJ acclimates.
(07-15-2024, 05:33 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ] (07-15-2024, 04:39 PM)Mikey Wrote: [ -> ]eh, I kinda think Gabe may be maxed out, especially with as many weapons as we have looking for targets. We should also consider Zay only started half of the games in 2021, so he certainly was less a focal point in Vegas than he was here. Not like he suddenly figgered out how to play WR once he transitioned from Carr to TLaw. We just gave him much more opportunity to produce.
Davis has reliably been a 700-yard guy in his four seasons, a moderate bump to 900 might be plausible, but that's likely going to mean either EE or Kirk or BTJ aren't getting nearly the stats we'd expect from them in trade. NGL, if he keeps up 750 and 7 over the next several years, that's meaningful contribution that I'd be happy to have.
Jones was a 7th year guy coming here and mostly seen as an afterthought signing who broke out in a better setting. Davis has been much more viable in his old offense than Jones and I think moving to the superior Pederson playbook will create the scenario I talked about. BTJ will have every opportunity, but Davis has already shown capability, now he gets to step into a better situation and I think that translates to a big year while BTJ acclimates.
Jones had almost 50 more targets in 2022 than 2021 and got them from a more accurate QB.
I don't think Davis is going to experience 135 targets this year.
Which would have to happen for him to see the same % of increase that Zay experienced.
He also had a good-playing Josh Allen where Zay had a less-than-on-his-A-game Derek Carr in 2021.
I can def see Gabe Davis getting an uptick, but not as steep as the one Zay had here.
(07-15-2024, 05:43 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (07-15-2024, 05:33 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]Jones was a 7th year guy coming here and mostly seen as an afterthought signing who broke out in a better setting. Davis has been much more viable in his old offense than Jones and I think moving to the superior Pederson playbook will create the scenario I talked about. BTJ will have every opportunity, but Davis has already shown capability, now he gets to step into a better situation and I think that translates to a big year while BTJ acclimates.
Jones had almost 50 more targets in 2022 than 2021 and got them from a more accurate QB.
I don't think Davis is going to experience 135 targets this year.
Which would have to happen for him to see the same % of increase that Zay experienced.
He also had a good-playing Josh Allen where Zay had a less-than-on-his-A-game Derek Carr in 2021.
I can def see Gabe Davis getting an uptick, but not as steep as the one Zay had here.
Assuming average protection by our work-in-progress O-Line we will have a much different passing game from last year. Doug tends to go with the "hot" hand with receivers and running backs so I expect targets are going to vary widely over the season. Last year it seemed to me we had a prima donna as a #1 and they were careful to take that into account. The guys we have now give me the impression they will work more as a team. (not that I know a ton about Gabe or BJT.)
(07-16-2024, 01:07 AM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-15-2024, 05:43 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]Jones had almost 50 more targets in 2022 than 2021 and got them from a more accurate QB.
I don't think Davis is going to experience 135 targets this year.
Which would have to happen for him to see the same % of increase that Zay experienced.
He also had a good-playing Josh Allen where Zay had a less-than-on-his-A-game Derek Carr in 2021.
I can def see Gabe Davis getting an uptick, but not as steep as the one Zay had here.
Assuming average protection by our work-in-progress O-Line we will have a much different passing game from last year. Doug tends to go with the "hot" hand with receivers and running backs so I expect targets are going to vary widely over the season. Last year it seemed to me we had a prima donna as a #1 and they were careful to take that into account. The guys we have now give me the impression they will work more as a team. (not that I know a ton about Gabe or BJT.)
The Offense looks to be set up very nicely right now. Obviously the OL needs to stay healthy, but Morse should upgrade the interior easily, which was the weakest area.
Gabe and BTJ work the outside and take the top off the Defense.
Kirk and Engram work the inside. Both have the ability to go deep as well though.
I also think Bigsby and Strange take a nice jump this season.
This should be the best Offense Trevor has had around him since he got here. Best Defense as well. I'm excited for this season.
(07-16-2024, 02:11 AM)Eric1 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-16-2024, 01:07 AM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]Assuming average protection by our work-in-progress O-Line we will have a much different passing game from last year. Doug tends to go with the "hot" hand with receivers and running backs so I expect targets are going to vary widely over the season. Last year it seemed to me we had a prima donna as a #1 and they were careful to take that into account. The guys we have now give me the impression they will work more as a team. (not that I know a ton about Gabe or BJT.)
The Offense looks to be set up very nicely right now. Obviously the OL needs to stay healthy, but Morse should upgrade the interior easily, which was the weakest area.
Gabe and BTJ work the outside and take the top off the Defense.
Kirk and Engram work the inside. Both have the ability to go deep as well though.
I also think Bigsby and Strange take a nice jump this season.
This should be the best Offense Trevor has had around him since he got here. Best Defense as well. I'm excited for this season.
Agreed. If they can actually get a damn push this year with the running game this offense is primed to take off big time. The play action game and Lawrence's ability to move the pocket with his mobility will give this team some deep shot opportunities and that's exactly why they went out and signed Davis and drafted BTJ.
Kirk & Engram are going to feast underneath and down the seams and then hopefully, like you already cited. Strange and Bigsby take a huge step forward in year two and start to contribute. The offensive line in general is entering this season a lot better up front with more stability.
We know Robinson is the LT on day one. We know Cleveland is the LG on day one. We didn't really have that last year. Scherff's play should improve with Morse next to him at C and then that leaves Harrison building off from his solid rookie season with a bum shoulder that he also addressed.
There's really no reason not to be excited this year. The schedule is not as bad as it was last year as well on paper.
(07-16-2024, 08:44 AM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ] (07-16-2024, 02:11 AM)Eric1 Wrote: [ -> ]The Offense looks to be set up very nicely right now. Obviously the OL needs to stay healthy, but Morse should upgrade the interior easily, which was the weakest area.
Gabe and BTJ work the outside and take the top off the Defense.
Kirk and Engram work the inside. Both have the ability to go deep as well though.
I also think Bigsby and Strange take a nice jump this season.
This should be the best Offense Trevor has had around him since he got here. Best Defense as well. I'm excited for this season.
Agreed. If they can actually get a damn push this year with the running game this offense is primed to take off big time. The play action game and Lawrence's ability to move the pocket with his mobility will give this team some deep shot opportunities and that's exactly why they went out and signed Davis and drafted BTJ.
Kirk & Engram are going to feast underneath and down the seams and then hopefully, like you already cited. Strange and Bigsby take a huge step forward in year two and start to contribute. The offensive line in general is entering this season a lot better up front with more stability.
We know Robinson is the LT on day one. We know Cleveland is the LG on day one. We didn't really have that last year. Scherff's play should improve with Morse next to him at C and then that leaves Harrison building off from his solid rookie season with a bum shoulder that he also addressed.
There's really no reason not to be excited this year. The schedule is not as bad as it was last year as well on paper.
I appreciate you guys' optimism. And your reasoning seems pretty sound. But 29 years of watching this team has pretty much pounded the optimism out of me. I still love the team, and I'll still watch every single play of every single game, but I have no earthly idea how it's all going to come out.
(07-16-2024, 10:00 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ] (07-16-2024, 08:44 AM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]Agreed. If they can actually get a damn push this year with the running game this offense is primed to take off big time. The play action game and Lawrence's ability to move the pocket with his mobility will give this team some deep shot opportunities and that's exactly why they went out and signed Davis and drafted BTJ.
Kirk & Engram are going to feast underneath and down the seams and then hopefully, like you already cited. Strange and Bigsby take a huge step forward in year two and start to contribute. The offensive line in general is entering this season a lot better up front with more stability.
We know Robinson is the LT on day one. We know Cleveland is the LG on day one. We didn't really have that last year. Scherff's play should improve with Morse next to him at C and then that leaves Harrison building off from his solid rookie season with a bum shoulder that he also addressed.
There's really no reason not to be excited this year. The schedule is not as bad as it was last year as well on paper.
I appreciate you guys' optimism. And your reasoning seems pretty sound. But 29 years of watching this team has pretty much pounded the optimism out of me. I still love the team, and I'll still watch every single play of every single game, but I have no earthly idea how it's all going to come out.
Make that 2 of us. Every year this happens, who drinks the largest glass of kool-aid seems to rotate among us with no describable pattern...LOL Well with some exceptions of course.....
(07-16-2024, 10:41 AM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-16-2024, 10:00 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]I appreciate you guys' optimism. And your reasoning seems pretty sound. But 29 years of watching this team has pretty much pounded the optimism out of me. I still love the team, and I'll still watch every single play of every single game, but I have no earthly idea how it's all going to come out.
Make that 2 of us. Every year this happens, who drinks the largest glass of kool-aid seems to rotate among us with no describable pattern...LOL Well with some exceptions of course.....
The issue for me is that last year was actually a good year until the injuries, which is how the NFL works, but so many are acting like we are terrible again like we were when Bobblehead was coach. Good teams lose seasons to injury, just ask the jests how their year went after that Achilles injury to Rodgers. For the Jags, last year's start shows that they aren't far off, they looked poised to take that jump to the top of the AFC, and the biggest issue (bulk in the middle) got addressed this offseason. I have every reason to believe that this team will look like the contenders they are once the games start. We are entering a Golden Age here, with our coach and QB locked up and locked in, and it's about damned time.
(07-16-2024, 12:39 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ] (07-16-2024, 10:41 AM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]Make that 2 of us. Every year this happens, who drinks the largest glass of kool-aid seems to rotate among us with no describable pattern...LOL Well with some exceptions of course.....
The issue for me is that last year was actually a good year until the injuries, which is how the NFL works, but so many are acting like we are terrible again like we were when Bobblehead was coach. Good teams lose seasons to injury, just ask the jests how their year went after that Achilles injury to Rodgers. For the Jags, last year's start shows that they aren't far off, they looked poised to take that jump to the top of the AFC, and the biggest issue (bulk in the middle) got addressed this offseason. I have every reason to believe that this team will look like the contenders they are once the games start. We are entering a Golden Age here, with our coach and QB locked up and locked in, and it's about damned time.
Yeah, we are better on paper, and entering year three of the Pederson/Lawrence combo.
Barring a high injury rate or some other OL collapse -- it's hard for me to think this offense doesn't find its stride by week 5 and get on a roll.
If new DC, new scheme, revamped secondary, and a vet interior disruptor all add up to a better defense as we thunk it will, we should be duking it out for the division title this year and for years to come.
There are very few excuses left for this team not to be highly competitive.
I felt this way last year to a lesser degree because I was highly suspect of the interior OL and didn't think we had enough IDL juice either. (we didn't)
This year - we addressed those spots and Hamilton is supposedly getting back to form, so... I can't help but feel like things are pointing up.
on topic - BTJ will likely outproduce Ridley at some point in his career if he stays the course - but it is just silly to put 1000 yard expectations on a rookie receiver.
Could happen - but it's rare enough for me to shy away from that kind of prediction.
BTJ will show up in enough games late in the season to make a difference for our offense IMO. And that's good enough for me.
The thing I have noticed about BTJ from watching college highlights is he will be running downfield, not looking like he's running all that fast, but the DB is struggling to keep up with him, and generally falling behind. And now we know why- 4.33 40 yard dash. That is [BLEEP] fast.
(07-16-2024, 01:40 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]The thing I have noticed about BTJ from watching college highlights is he will be running downfield, not looking like he's running all that fast, but the DB is struggling to keep up with him, and generally falling behind. And now we know why- 4.33 40 yard dash. That is [BLEEP] fast.
![[Image: OGC.984e82827a3bf5aa17f92b20f42a0e0c?pid...w61JSo8%3d]](https://www.bing.com/th/id/OGC.984e82827a3bf5aa17f92b20f42a0e0c?pid=1.7&rurl=https%3a%2f%2fmedia1.tenor.com%2fimages%2f984e82827a3bf5aa17f92b20f42a0e0c%2ftenor.gif&ehk=bMiPF4C4O2GEQJXDrT6rq4G%2fGJdkOMcZyGNuw61JSo8%3d)
Combine that with his body control, ability to high point the football and keep his feet inbounds. He's a great prospect. Was high on him early last year in the college forum. His TD's were all NFL worthy grabs.
The only knock on him is YAC. He tends to fold easily underneath in shorter routes, which, honestly? I don't care for that. He's a rangy receiver with deep speed. If we're just making him run slant routes and five to ten yard curl routes?
We're doing something wrong.
(07-16-2024, 01:48 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ] (07-16-2024, 01:40 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]The thing I have noticed about BTJ from watching college highlights is he will be running downfield, not looking like he's running all that fast, but the DB is struggling to keep up with him, and generally falling behind. And now we know why- 4.33 40 yard dash. That is [BLEEP] fast.
Combine that with his body control, ability to high point the football and keep his feet inbounds. He's a great prospect. Was high on him early last year in the college forum. His TD's were all NFL worthy grabs.
The only knock on him is YAC. He tends to fold easily underneath in shorter routes, which, honestly? I don't care for that. He's a rangy receiver with deep speed. If we're just making him run slant routes and five to ten yard curl routes?
We're doing something wrong.
If he has the route running and speed to get separation on intermediate and deep routes, YAC doesn't matter as much anymore. The shorter routes would then be mostly to keep CB's honest
(07-16-2024, 01:48 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ] (07-16-2024, 01:40 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]The thing I have noticed about BTJ from watching college highlights is he will be running downfield, not looking like he's running all that fast, but the DB is struggling to keep up with him, and generally falling behind. And now we know why- 4.33 40 yard dash. That is [BLEEP] fast.
Combine that with his body control, ability to high point the football and keep his feet inbounds. He's a great prospect. Was high on him early last year in the college forum. His TD's were all NFL worthy grabs.
The only knock on him is YAC. He tends to fold easily underneath in shorter routes, which, honestly? I don't care for that. He's a rangy receiver with deep speed. If we're just making him run slant routes and five to ten yard curl routes?
We're doing something wrong.
As much as last season sucked, I think it was good for this young team in the long run.
They felt the pain of blowing a division lead like that. The coaching staff realized they messed up trying to put a square peg into a round hole (Ridley). The front office realized they needed more outside vertical threats because that’s one of Trevor’s best attributes (in comes BTJ and Gabe). They finally realized Fortner is trash. They upgraded the middle of the DLine when they saw teams gash them again and again.
All those failures shook everyone up and they didn’t rest. 2022 was great but they felt complacent almost with the roster after that playoff win.
(07-16-2024, 03:57 PM)rpr52121 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-16-2024, 01:48 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]
Combine that with his body control, ability to high point the football and keep his feet inbounds. He's a great prospect. Was high on him early last year in the college forum. His TD's were all NFL worthy grabs.
The only knock on him is YAC. He tends to fold easily underneath in shorter routes, which, honestly? I don't care for that. He's a rangy receiver with deep speed. If we're just making him run slant routes and five to ten yard curl routes?
We're doing something wrong.
If he has the route running and speed to get separation on intermediate and deep routes, YAC doesn't matter as much anymore. The shorter routes would then be mostly to keep CB's honest
Agreed. I think ideally they're going to look towards Davis and Thomas Jr. stretching the field out along the sideline which should draw safety coverage away from the middle of the field so guys like Kirk and Engram can get more isolation and do what they do best between their route running and YAC ability.
It'll really flourish once they get the ground game established and they can start freezing the 2nd level of opponent's defensively. The play action game and mobility with Lawrence to move the pocket has been hindered for far too long in Jacksonville. That's been the missing piece to this puzzle on offense.
We're getting close. We're right there now knocking at the door.
(07-16-2024, 04:08 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ] (07-16-2024, 01:48 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]
Combine that with his body control, ability to high point the football and keep his feet inbounds. He's a great prospect. Was high on him early last year in the college forum. His TD's were all NFL worthy grabs.
The only knock on him is YAC. He tends to fold easily underneath in shorter routes, which, honestly? I don't care for that. He's a rangy receiver with deep speed. If we're just making him run slant routes and five to ten yard curl routes?
We're doing something wrong.
As much as last season sucked, I think it was good for this young team in the long run.
They felt the pain of blowing a division lead like that. The coaching staff realized they messed up trying to put a square peg into a round hole (Ridley). The front office realized they needed more outside vertical threats because that’s one of Trevor’s best attributes (in comes BTJ and Gabe). They finally realized Fortner is trash. They upgraded the middle of the DLine when they saw teams gash them again and again.
All those failures shook everyone up and they didn’t rest. 2022 was great but they felt complacent almost with the roster after that playoff win.
They started off 8 - 3 and essentially lost Kirk in the Bengals loss and the beginning of Lawrence's true injury woes began in that same loss with the ankle injury.
I honestly believe they were at the cusp of turning into a double digit winning team and making a serious run for the #1 seed in the middle of that game. Lawrence was, in my honest opinion, delivering his best game yet as an NFL QB.
He was money in that Bengals loss on MNF. This is a good football team with a good head coach. They have the potential now to be great. I hope this off season has pissed them off as much as it has with most of us within the fanbase.
They're practically crowning the tinhorns now and viewing us as an afterthought.
(07-16-2024, 01:48 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ] (07-16-2024, 01:40 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]The thing I have noticed about BTJ from watching college highlights is he will be running downfield, not looking like he's running all that fast, but the DB is struggling to keep up with him, and generally falling behind. And now we know why- 4.33 40 yard dash. That is [BLEEP] fast.
Combine that with his body control, ability to high point the football and keep his feet inbounds. He's a great prospect. Was high on him early last year in the college forum. His TD's were all NFL worthy grabs.
The only knock on him is YAC. He tends to fold easily underneath in shorter routes, which, honestly? I don't care for that. He's a rangy receiver with deep speed. If we're just making him run slant routes and five to ten yard curl routes?
We're doing something wrong.
Greatest show on turf was notorious for that. Get the easy yards, not worth fighting for a yard or two, line up and do it again, keep the D on their heels.
Death by a thousand cuts, you know?
![[Image: emperor-palpatine-star-wars-so-be-it-c1g...nyxnut.gif]](https://gifdb.com/images/high/emperor-palpatine-star-wars-so-be-it-c1g226ehp1nyxnut.gif)