It's pretty evident that this is going to a brokered convention. My own theory behind this...
1237 votes are needed to win the nomination outright.
Donald Trump has 739 delegates at this point. That means that he needs to earn 498 more.
Ted Cruz has 465 delegates at this point. That means that he needs to earn 772 more.
There are only 536 delegates left in the remaining states yet to hold their primaries.
Of course, there is no way that Ted Cruz wins all of the remaining delegates, and even if he does, it's still not enough. There is also no way that Donald Trump wins 498 out of 536. Mathematically, the other two candidates still in the race just need to win 38 delegates combined in order to eliminate the possibility of an outright winner.
Other significant delegates in the first vote of the convention. Note, these numbers can change with the early voting numbers and the fact that Kasich is still actively campaigning.
Marco Rubio holds 166 delegates.
John Kasich holds 143 delegates.
So it comes down to the question of who the republican party eventually nominates.
Other factors to consider is that the republican party has pretty much made it clear that they don't want Trump. They also sour on Ted Cruz, especially since he refuses to bend to party pressure. I also don't think that they would bring in someone from outside of the primary election (Mitt Romney, etc.). My guess is that it will end up being a Kasich/Rubio ticket or Rubio/Kasich ticket in the end.
Thoughts?
Question: If Rubio and/or Kasich drops out, where do those 307 delegates go? Do they shift to whatever candidate endorsed by Rubio or Kasich, or do they become at-large delegates able to vote for whoever is still in the race?
Quote:Question: If Rubio and/or Kasich drops out, where do those 307 delegates go? Do they shift to whatever candidate endorsed by Rubio or Kasich, or do they become at-large delegates able to vote for whoever is still in the race?
Very good question. In the case of Rubio, he didn't really "drop out" he "suspended" his candidacy. By doing that, the delegates that he holds are bound to him in the first round of voting at the convention. The same goes for the few delegates that have effectively ended their run (Bush, Fiorina, Carson, etc.). After the first round of voting, if there is no winner, then those delegates are free to vote for whomever. If he did actually "drop out" completely, then those delegates would be free to vote for any candidate in the first round of voting in the convention. I hope that makes sense.
With Kasich still in the race, he still siphons off delegates from others and specifically Trump. That's pretty much what is forcing the brokered convention at this point.
EDIT
Let me make this clear for you and others. The primary election is all about selecting a candidate that is voted on during their respective parties convention. While yes, you are voting for a particular candidate, what you are really voting for is the delegate selection and how they should vote.
Contrary to popular belief, we don't have a true democracy here. We have a representative form of government.
Just wait until the general election when people find out about how the Electoral College works.
If they where smart Rand Paul
Quote:If they where smart Rand Paul
We have determined smarts have no place in this year's Presidential campaigns.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/25/politics/t...delegates/
I believe there are actually 899 delegates or there in abouts.
Trump needs 55% with the higher concentration of winner take all and winner take most states in this leg of the primary season trump has a better than even money chance of hitting 1237 outright.
Quote:Just wait until the general election when people find out about how the Electoral College works.
You'd think they would have figured that out after the 2000 Presidential Appointment. Is that a "once per generation" learning experience?
I see two realistic scenarios:
1: Trump wins the popular vote, also gets the nomination in which case the actual race might be a close one.
2: Trump wins the popular vote, but doesn't get the nomination in which case the GOP loses all credibility and the election is a walkover for the Democrats.
Quote:http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/25/politics/t...delegates/
I believe there are actually 899 delegates or there in abouts.
Trump needs 55% with the higher concentration of winner take all and winner take most states in this leg of the primary season trump has a better than even money chance of hitting 1237 outright.
I think Trump will fall just short. How close would he have to be for the establishment to "allow" him to be the candidate is the big question. Would they dare deny him the position if he "only" had 1236 delegates? I suspect they would. I would view that as a final betrayal of the Republican base (the last two budgets were also betrayals), and I'm no Trump fan.
And Kasich has lost any respect I had for him.
Right now From Ted Cruz perspective he is still mathematically alive to 1.) hit 1237, even though its a 100 to one shot, 2.) Finish ahead of Trump in the final delegate count or 3.) CATCH TRUMP IN DELEGATES (Achieving delegate parody creating a virtual tie and a legitimate claim to a floor fight.) Right now he has pulled within the margin of error in national polling, there is about to be a showdown at the ok coral in Wisconsin.
These three possibilities are the basis for Ted Cruz continuing his Campaign. As bitter as this campaign has been, Ted Cruz has a greater loyalty to the democratic process than he does to the Washington Cartel. At such time that all three of the above scenarios become mathematically eliminated, meaning that there is no realistic chance that he will finish in anything resembling delegate parody with Trump, I believe that Ted Cruz would rather concede the nomination to Trump than to stay in and play the spoiler just for the establishment that hates him to pull Jeb Bush off the Scrap heap.
That being said, the next month or so is critical to the Cruz campaign. We are in a little bit of a stand alone phase. We have the Wisconsin Primary, winner take all. Then we have two weeks off before I believe New York (winner take most or all very similar to Utah). Trump, by most measures, should win a true and comfortable majority in his home state of new York. If Trump takes Wisconsin you could have Ted Cruz fighting three weeks worth of loosing vote counts and a delegate gap ever widening between him and the front runner. If he wins, all bets are off and we will be in this thing for sure until California and who knows what will happen over the next three months.
Interesting scenarios. My question is, everyone seems to think the party establishment has some control over the process after the first ballot. But do they really? On the second ballot, delegates are free to vote for whomever they want. How could the party elites force them to vote for Jeb Bush? Especially since the great majority will come to the convention representing the two candidates that are way outside the party establishment.
Quote:Interesting scenarios. My question is, everyone seems to think the party establishment has some control over the process after the first ballot. But do they really? On the second ballot, delegates are free to vote for whomever they want. How could the party elites force them to vote for Jeb Bush? Especially since the great majority will come to the convention representing the two candidates that are way outside the party establishment.
Good question.
Are there sets of delegates for each candidate and these are narrowed down in the primaries, or are the delegates pre-selected before the primary but required to vote based on the primary results? Maybe that varies by state.
Quote:Good question.
Are there sets of delegates for each candidate and these are narrowed down in the primaries, or are the delegates pre-selected before the primary but required to vote based on the primary results? Maybe that varies by state.
It does. In some states they will be legally bound for just the first ballot some the first three and some the first 6.
Inside baseball there is the primary to pledge the delegates but seperate elections to actually elect the people who serve as delegates. A few years ago i believe ron paul was very succesful getting his people elected in states won by other candidates. It was so effective that the rnc instituted rule 40 to bar anyone as an option in an open convention that didnt win a majority of delegates in 8 states.
That kind of inside baseball nuts and bolts political ground game should favor cruz in a floor fight.
I think the Republicans will play with the rules to deny Trump the nomination. At least if he doesn't get the necessary number. (Even then they may play with the numbers if he barely makes it. I think they could determine that the proportions of delegates assigned should have been different, and change them)
Who will they put up? I don't know. If Kasich manages to get some decent support before the convention, I think it could be him.
Kasich doesn't pass the "eye test" as presidential material. Whatever "it" is, he doesn't have it. He would get crushed in the general election.
Quote:Kasich doesn't pass the "eye test" as presidential material. Whatever "it" is, he doesn't have it. He would get crushed in the general election.
Actually according to the polls he has the best chance of any Republican in the general election.
Quote:If they where smart Rand Paul
The smart move is to tab the guy who was pulling in 1% of the party vote because he can beat Hillary or Bernie?
Quote:Actually according to the polls he has the best chance of any Republican in the general election.
There are polls out there to support anybody's argument.
Quote:Kasich doesn't pass the "eye test" as presidential material. Whatever "it" is, he doesn't have it. He would get crushed in the general election.
He is the only one who passes the eye test IMO, because he has legitimate experience and isn't bat guano crazy. But he is a moderate, so the party will view him as a fringe candidate. Not extreme enough.