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COVID-19


Cure on its way November 4th, 2020.
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Yo Trump is hilarious.

“I’ve always treated Chinese virus very seriously and have done a very good job from the beginning....” hahaha what?! He’s trippin man.
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So SARS (both variations) and MERS are caused by bats.

Can we kill all the bats now?
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(03-18-2020, 08:35 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: Yo Trump is hilarious.

“I’ve always treated Chinese virus very seriously and have done a very good job from the beginning....” hahaha what?! He’s trippin man.

What could Trump have done differently?

Even NY Governor is praising him.
Reply


(03-18-2020, 08:06 AM)MalabarJag Wrote:
(03-17-2020, 09:08 PM)Last42min Wrote: Interesting analysis:

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%...vY11kefO9w

This is a synopsis of the paper, but I haven't finished reading it yet, so haven't fact checked.

The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course?

...

WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE! PANIC! PANIC! PANIC!

Chill people, these simulations are garbage. That 80% used in the simulation is [BLEEP].

On the cruise ship everyone was in a closed environment with an infected person, giving it a chance to spread for 14 days before ANY response was initiated. 14 days where nearly everyone will eat in the same dining room and most of the crew will be exposed to the initial victim. In those 14 days the crew had a good chance to be infected and spread it among the passengers. Reports are that the level of quarantine after those 14 days was still feeble. Yet by the end of the month-long confinement only 17% of the people on board (including crew) caught the disease. No way 80% of the population in he USA comes down with COVID-19, not even close.


We also have a likely treatment in chloroquine, a cheap plentiful drug. That's a game changer. That lowers the death rate significantly.

The cases in Florida have been increasing, but not exponentially. Seminole county where I live showed four cases at least two days ago. It's still at four today. Nearby Orange county has increased from five to six. Again, not exponential. Self-isolation helps but I've been dining out and the restaurants are still full.

It's time to consider ending the self-isolation and get on with life. It was a good idea at the time, but seems to be no longer needed.

This site purports to show the growth in Covid-19 cases in Florida.  Look at the graph.  

https://www.news4jax.com/news/florida/20...ases-soar/

The cases per day since March 1 were: 2, 3, 4, 8, 16, 19, 26, 31, 48, 73, 149.  The graph ends on March 15.  

I don't know how much of the growth is fueled by more and better testing.  From other reporting, it appears that on March 17, we were at 217.  It seems to have slowed a bit.  

Also, just to quibble a bit with something in your post, you said an increase from 5 to 6 is "not exponential."  That could be exponential.  Maybe you weren't using the word "exponential" in a strict sense, but from 5 to 6 is 20%.  If it grows at 20% per day, then on day 60 you would have 338,000 cases.
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(This post was last modified: 03-18-2020, 08:51 AM by Cleatwood.)

(03-18-2020, 08:41 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote:
(03-18-2020, 08:35 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: Yo Trump is hilarious.

“I’ve always treated Chinese virus very seriously and have done a very good job from the beginning....” hahaha what?! He’s trippin man.

What could Trump have done differently?

Even NY Governor is praising him.
How about not lie when he said he took it seriously from the start? Because he didn’t.

He’s a trip.
Reply


(03-18-2020, 08:41 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote:
(03-18-2020, 08:35 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: Yo Trump is hilarious.

“I’ve always treated Chinese virus very seriously and have done a very good job from the beginning....” hahaha what?! He’s trippin man.

What could Trump have done differently?

Even NY Governor is praising him.

I think the answer to your question will have to wait until we have some distance from this crisis, but he certainly appears to have changed his mind about the severity of the problem.  

On January 22, he said we have it totally under control.  
On February 10, he said the virus would be gone by April. 
On February 26, he said, “We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time."
On February 27, he said, [font=nyt-imperial, georgia,]“It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.”[/font]
[font=nyt-imperial, georgia,]On February 29, he said a vaccine would be available "very quickly," and "very rapidly." [/font]
[font=nyt-imperial, georgia,]On March 6, he said anyone who wanted a test could get a test. [/font]

[font=nyt-imperial, georgia,][font=nyt-imperial, georgia,][font=nyt-imperial, georgia,]Then yesterday, he claimed he knew it was a pandemic long before anyone called it a pandemic.[/font]

[/font]
[/font]
I'm glad he has now decided to stop misleading people about the nature of the threat, even if he's trying to re-write history about his own attitude of the last 3 weeks, but he has left his supporters out on a limb.  They're still trying to minimize the threat, when he has now declared a national emergency and is holding daily press conferences where he tells people to stay out of bars and restaurants. 
Reply


(03-18-2020, 09:00 AM)The Real Marty Wrote:
(03-18-2020, 08:41 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: What could Trump have done differently?

Even NY Governor is praising him.

I think the answer to your question will have to wait until we have some distance from this crisis, but he certainly appears to have changed his mind about the severity of the problem.  

On January 22, he said we have it totally under control.  
On February 10, he said the virus would be gone by April. 
On February 26, he said, “We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time."
On February 27, he said, [font=nyt-imperial, georgia,]“It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.”[/font]
[font=nyt-imperial, georgia,]On February 29, he said a vaccine would be available "very quickly," and "very rapidly." [/font]
[font=nyt-imperial, georgia,]On March 6, he said anyone who wanted a test could get a test. [/font]

[font=nyt-imperial, georgia,][font=nyt-imperial, georgia,][font=nyt-imperial, georgia,]Then yesterday, he claimed he knew it was a pandemic long before anyone called it a pandemic.[/font]

[/font]
[/font]
I'm glad he has now decided to stop misleading people about the nature of the threat, even if he's trying to re-write history about his own attitude of the last 3 weeks, but he has left his supporters out on a limb.  They're still trying to minimize the threat, when he has now declared a national emergency and is holding daily press conferences where he tells people to stay out of bars and restaurants. 
Thank you.
Reply


(03-18-2020, 08:44 AM)The Real Marty Wrote:
(03-18-2020, 08:06 AM)MalabarJag Wrote: WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE! PANIC! PANIC! PANIC!

Chill people, these simulations are garbage. That 80% used in the simulation is [BLEEP].

On the cruise ship everyone was in a closed environment with an infected person, giving it a chance to spread for 14 days before ANY response was initiated. 14 days where nearly everyone will eat in the same dining room and most of the crew will be exposed to the initial victim. In those 14 days the crew had a good chance to be infected and spread it among the passengers. Reports are that the level of quarantine after those 14 days was still feeble. Yet by the end of the month-long confinement only 17% of the people on board (including crew) caught the disease. No way 80% of the population in he USA comes down with COVID-19, not even close.


We also have a likely treatment in chloroquine, a cheap plentiful drug. That's a game changer. That lowers the death rate significantly.

The cases in Florida have been increasing, but not exponentially. Seminole county where I live showed four cases at least two days ago. It's still at four today. Nearby Orange county has increased from five to six. Again, not exponential. Self-isolation helps but I've been dining out and the restaurants are still full.

It's time to consider ending the self-isolation and get on with life. It was a good idea at the time, but seems to be no longer needed.

This site purports to show the growth in Covid-19 cases in Florida.  Look at the graph.  

https://www.news4jax.com/news/florida/20...ases-soar/

The cases per day since March 1 were: 2, 3, 4, 8, 16, 19, 26, 31, 48, 73, 149.  The graph ends on March 15.  

I don't know how much of the growth is fueled by more and better testing.  From other reporting, it appears that on March 17, we were at 217.  It seems to have slowed a bit.  

Also, just to quibble a bit with something in your post, you said an increase from 5 to 6 is "not exponential."  That could be exponential.  Maybe you weren't using the word "exponential" in a strict sense, but from 5 to 6 is 20%.  If it grows at 20% per day, then on day 60 you would have 338,000 cases.

Adding Seminole and Orange gives 9 to 10 in two days, or a doubling every 18 days if exponential. That would make it a slow exponential. And yeah, using just two counties isn't a very accurate way to measure.

Most of the growth in Florida is related to a cruise ship in Broward county. More than half the Florida cases are in Broward/Dade/Palm Beach counties. No more cruise ships are arriving.



                                                                          

"Why should I give information to you when all you want to do is find something wrong with it?"
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(03-18-2020, 09:03 AM)Cleatwood Wrote:
(03-18-2020, 09:00 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: I think the answer to your question will have to wait until we have some distance from this crisis, but he certainly appears to have changed his mind about the severity of the problem.  

On January 22, he said we have it totally under control.  
On February 10, he said the virus would be gone by April. 
On February 26, he said, “We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time."
On February 27, he said, [font=nyt-imperial, georgia,]“It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.”[/font]
[font=nyt-imperial, georgia,]On February 29, he said a vaccine would be available "very quickly," and "very rapidly." [/font]
[font=nyt-imperial, georgia,]On March 6, he said anyone who wanted a test could get a test. [/font]

[font=nyt-imperial, georgia,][font=nyt-imperial, georgia,][font=nyt-imperial, georgia,]Then yesterday, he claimed he knew it was a pandemic long before anyone called it a pandemic.[/font]

[/font]
[/font]
I'm glad he has now decided to stop misleading people about the nature of the threat, even if he's trying to re-write history about his own attitude of the last 3 weeks, but he has left his supporters out on a limb.  They're still trying to minimize the threat, when he has now declared a national emergency and is holding daily press conferences where he tells people to stay out of bars and restaurants. 
Thank you.

I wish people would listen to every single expert that keeps screaming to stop hoarding toilet paper.
Reply


(03-18-2020, 09:00 AM)The Real Marty Wrote:
(03-18-2020, 08:41 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: What could Trump have done differently?

Even NY Governor is praising him.

I think the answer to your question will have to wait until we have some distance from this crisis, but he certainly appears to have changed his mind about the severity of the problem.  

On January 22, he said we have it totally under control.  
On February 10, he said the virus would be gone by April. 
On February 26, he said, “We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time."
On February 27, he said, [font=nyt-imperial, georgia,]“It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.”[/font]
[font=nyt-imperial, georgia,]On February 29, he said a vaccine would be available "very quickly," and "very rapidly." [/font]
[font=nyt-imperial, georgia,]On March 6, he said anyone who wanted a test could get a test. [/font]

[font=nyt-imperial, georgia,][font=nyt-imperial, georgia,][font=nyt-imperial, georgia,]Then yesterday, he claimed he knew it was a pandemic long before anyone called it a pandemic.[/font]

[/font]
[/font]
I'm glad he has now decided to stop misleading people about the nature of the threat, even if he's trying to re-write history about his own attitude of the last 3 weeks, but he has left his supporters out on a limb.  They're still trying to minimize the threat, when he has now declared a national emergency and is holding daily press conferences where he tells people to stay out of bars and restaurants. 

Are those the full quotes, or only the snippets the leftist media uses to take Trump quotes out of context? Because that's exactly what they've been doing.

Example



                                                                          

"Why should I give information to you when all you want to do is find something wrong with it?"
Reply


(03-18-2020, 09:17 AM)MalabarJag Wrote:
(03-18-2020, 09:00 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: I think the answer to your question will have to wait until we have some distance from this crisis, but he certainly appears to have changed his mind about the severity of the problem.  

On January 22, he said we have it totally under control.  
On February 10, he said the virus would be gone by April. 
On February 26, he said, “We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time."
On February 27, he said, [font=nyt-imperial, georgia,]“It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.”[/font]
[font=nyt-imperial, georgia,]On February 29, he said a vaccine would be available "very quickly," and "very rapidly." [/font]
[font=nyt-imperial, georgia,]On March 6, he said anyone who wanted a test could get a test. [/font]

[font=nyt-imperial, georgia,][font=nyt-imperial, georgia,][font=nyt-imperial, georgia,]Then yesterday, he claimed he knew it was a pandemic long before anyone called it a pandemic.[/font]

[/font]
[/font]
I'm glad he has now decided to stop misleading people about the nature of the threat, even if he's trying to re-write history about his own attitude of the last 3 weeks, but he has left his supporters out on a limb.  They're still trying to minimize the threat, when he has now declared a national emergency and is holding daily press conferences where he tells people to stay out of bars and restaurants. 

Are those the full quotes, or only the snippets the leftist media uses to take Trump quotes out of context? Because that's exactly what they've been doing.

Example

It's weird when people change their view as they receive more information. Leftist Logic = Know everything up front and make final decisions up front or you are BAD ORANGE MAN.
Reply


(03-18-2020, 09:23 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote:
(03-18-2020, 09:17 AM)MalabarJag Wrote: Are those the full quotes, or only the snippets the leftist media uses to take Trump quotes out of context? Because that's exactly what they've been doing.

Example

It's weird when people change their view as they receive more information. Leftist Logic = Know everything up front and make final decisions up front or you are BAD ORANGE MAN.
It’s called admitting you made a mistake instead of saying you’ve handled it very well since the beginning. 

You’re just making excuses for him.
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I love that our first reaction to every single event is finger pointing rather than problem solving.
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(03-18-2020, 09:23 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote:
(03-18-2020, 09:17 AM)MalabarJag Wrote: Are those the full quotes, or only the snippets the leftist media uses to take Trump quotes out of context? Because that's exactly what they've been doing.

Example

It's weird when people change their view as they receive more information. Leftist Logic = Know everything up front and make final decisions up front or you are BAD ORANGE MAN.

LOL

He called it a [BLEEP] HOAX. And because of that stance (that he stuck with for a few days) millions of his base are still treating it as such. 

He [BLEEP] up.

There's really no explaining that away.
Reply


(03-18-2020, 09:41 AM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(03-18-2020, 09:23 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: It's weird when people change their view as they receive more information. Leftist Logic = Know everything up front and make final decisions up front or you are BAD ORANGE MAN.

LOL

He called it a [BLEEP] HOAX. And because of that stance (that he stuck with for a few days) millions of his base are still treating it as such. 

He [BLEEP] up.

There's really no explaining that away.

He called the media response to it a hoax.
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(03-18-2020, 09:41 AM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(03-18-2020, 09:23 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: It's weird when people change their view as they receive more information. Leftist Logic = Know everything up front and make final decisions up front or you are BAD ORANGE MAN.

LOL

He called it a [BLEEP] HOAX. And because of that stance (that he stuck with for a few days) millions of his base are still treating it as such. 

He [BLEEP] up.

There's really no explaining that away.

Yea, don't believe social media on that one. I'm seeing a lot of morons spreading that lie.
Reply


(03-18-2020, 10:01 AM)JackCity Wrote: https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1240...54753?s=19

Those Trump statements are both true. What are you trying to prove, that you're just as clueless as Sam Stein?




                                                                          

"Why should I give information to you when all you want to do is find something wrong with it?"
Reply


This is what happens when the President leads in one direction and then changes his mind:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifKbwDf51bA
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