I know many of my friends who operate brewery taprooms with no food were utilizing crowlers or packaged beer to go as a workaround. 

I 100% have to believe it'll get clarified to reflect no "open-container" sales. What breweries are doing is no different than Publix or any other grocery store.

If it stands as is, it's a death knell for more than 80% of Florida's breweries

I sure hate to read that about any business. The world has gone crazy.

Historians and economists will be analyzing this for the next hundred years, and arguing about whether it was worth it to push the world into a depression in order to save lives.  

Or maybe it will turn out okay.  Right now, it seems like we are paying an extremely high price economically.

---

The problem is they either need to go all the way and stop everything but necessary services or let people do what they want. People need to work to be able to survive. If you don't work, you don't get paid. Leaving things up to companies will force people to go to work.

So either stop everything and force companies to pay employees while giving tax breaks and supporting smaller businesses or leave it alone and let people and companies choose. I've seen a few companies do the right thing and close while still paying their employees.

---

I know many of my friends who operate brewery taprooms with no food were utilizing crowlers or packaged beer to go as a workaround. 

I 100% have to believe it'll get clarified to reflect no "open-container" sales. What breweries are doing is no different than Publix or any other grocery store.

If it stands as is, it's a death knell for more than 80% of Florida's breweries

I sure hate to read that about any business. The world has gone crazy.

I'm hearing my expectation is correct - the guvnah overstated the alcohol sales restriction. Will likely be clarified as early as tomorrow morning. FL Brewers Guild knows what's going on and is working to get it adjusted to reflect allowances of closed-container (to-go) sales. As it stands now, police are shutting down any bar/brewery taproom selling package (happened to Southern Swells and Aardwolf). This one riled me up moreso than anything else. Felt like I was fighting on behalf of my brewery yet again.

---

I'll play you in ping pong. 

Seems like an opportunity to start throwing roaring 20’s speakeasy parties.

---

Interesting analysis:

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%...vY11kefO9w

This is a synopsis of the paper, but I haven't finished reading it yet, so haven't fact checked.

The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course?

Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.

It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.

So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.

How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.

Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II.

Now, of course countries won't stand by and do nothing. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy: all symptomatic cases in the US in isolation. Families of those cases quarantined. All Americans over 70 social distancing.

This mitigation strategy is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.

And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by 8 times.

That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two Civil Wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we rely on mitigation & common sense.

Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, assuming a "suppression" strategy: isolate symptomatic cases, quarantine their family members, social distancing for the whole population, all public gatherings/most workplaces shut down, schools and universities close.

Suppression works! The death rate in the US peaks 3 weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit but don't exceed the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear.

But here's the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before.
After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better.

But we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.
How quickly will a vaccine be here? Last week three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. That's an extreme measure, but necessary.

Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for 14 months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This part can't be rushed: if you're going to inoculate all humans, you have to make absolutely sure the vaccine itself won't kill them. It probably won't, but you have to be sure.

Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.

During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and society will be disrupted in profound ways. And if suppression actually works, it will feel like we're doing all this for nothing, because infection and death rates will remain low.
It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do.

---

The #s can be scary. I know exactly where ur coming from, but remember, The virus has existed for roughly 90 days. Those three months have the highest mortality and morbidity rates. Why? Because there are no treatment protocols. There are currently 300 clinical trials to develop treatment protocols to reduce mortality and morbidity of the disease. Well find a treatment before we reach inoculation. Reducing mortality and morbidity among seriously affected patients makes mitigation more viable. Suppression isn't. This country will riot if the draft isn't televised on time. Anyone suggesting they will stand by for 18 months and allow the destruction of, well, western civilization you're nutz. More people would die from starvation and societal collapse.

---

DeSantis just suspended alcohol sales for 30 days too for alcoholic beverage license holders (those whose alcohol sales represent more than 50% of their total income).

For what purpose? This one stings for a bunch of my former brethren. Businesses will go bankrupt if they weren't already heading that way

I don't know if you remember Vietnam- "We had to destroy the village in order to save it." 

The medicine we are taking as a society to combat this virus is killing us.

When do we stop pushing....  where do we draw the line?

When the cure is worse than the disease....  

From the upcoming movie morbius.

---

DeSantis just suspended alcohol sales for 30 days too for alcoholic beverage license holders (those whose alcohol sales represent more than 50% of their total income).

For what purpose? This one stings for a bunch of my former brethren. Businesses will go bankrupt if they weren't already heading that way

It has gone beyond stupid.  Government at all levels are taking draconian measures that communist countries normally take.  Let US decide if we want to go to a restaurant or bar.  Let US decide if we want to purchase alcohol, beer or wine (among other things).  We don't need a "nanny government" at any level dictating what we can or can not do.

I can understand the intent which is to limit crowds of people, but to hurt small businesses even more is just crazy.  I say let "natural selection" take it's course.

+1 

https://youtu.be/aY0OmykpqkY

---

I can't find solid numbers for the COVID-19 Stimulus Bill... keeping it under wraps I guess.

Apparently they have something before that bill on the docket anyway.

---

What are everyone's thoughts on those who are infected, feel nothing and never get tested? Could that number be in the millions at this point? I know I'm not going to get tested voluntarily. I say that because that could drastically change our perception on the mortality rate of this virus.

Harvard recently said the number according to the most recent studies say it's closer to a 1% mortality rate - which is still high.

To my knowledge they are not testing people who are asymptomatic. I'm NC they're still not testing you even if you are symptomatic if you have not traveled to any hotspots or have been in contact with anyone who has. Lack of tests is definitely an issue.

---

I can't find solid numbers for the COVID-19 Stimulus Bill... keeping it under wraps I guess.

Apparently they have something before that bill on the docket anyway.

---

What are everyone's thoughts on those who are infected, feel nothing and never get tested? Could that number be in the millions at this point? I know I'm not going to get tested voluntarily. I say that because that could drastically change our perception on the mortality rate of this virus.

Harvard recently said the number according to the most recent studies say it's closer to a 1% mortality rate - which is still high.

To my knowledge they are not testing people who are asymptomatic. I'm NC they're still not testing you even if you are symptomatic if you have not traveled to any hotspots or have been in contact with anyone who has. Lack of tests is definitely an issue.

It is....  and it isn't.  At current the tests generate 1 to 2% positive.  That means that 98% of people who make it past CDC pre-screening have some other form of respitory infection.  

And I think I heard a statistic the north of 80% of cases in china were asymptomatic.  


For SARS COV the period of contagion was late and symptoms were early.  That meant you could identify and confirm the disease the. isolate the patient in time to prevent the spread.  

This disease gets to hide among the rest of the myriad of comd/flu strains or worse through asymptomatic carriers.

---

I can't find solid numbers for the COVID-19 Stimulus Bill... keeping it under wraps I guess.

Apparently they have something before that bill on the docket anyway.

---

What are everyone's thoughts on those who are infected, feel nothing and never get tested? Could that number be in the millions at this point? I know I'm not going to get tested voluntarily. I say that because that could drastically change our perception on the mortality rate of this virus.

Harvard recently said the number according to the most recent studies say it's closer to a 1% mortality rate - which is still high.

To my knowledge they are not testing people who are asymptomatic. I'm NC they're still not testing you even if you are symptomatic if you have not traveled to any hotspots or have been in contact with anyone who has. Lack of tests is definitely an issue.

You basically can't get tested unless you have been out of the country or have been in contact with someone who has it. So if they aren't testing anyone, you won't know if you come in contact with someone who has it because they won't know either unless it's bad enough to end up in the hospital.

Maybe this is part of the plan. Have people isolate and not test unless it's bad enough to send you to the hospital. The more people who test positive the more panic sets in. Keeps the numbers down since they basically have admitted there isn't much they can down to stop it.

---

To my knowledge they are not testing people who are asymptomatic. I'm NC they're still not testing you even if you are symptomatic if you have not traveled to any hotspots or have been in contact with anyone who has. Lack of tests is definitely an issue.

You basically can't get tested unless you have been out of the country or have been in contact with someone who has it. So if they aren't testing anyone, you won't know if you come in contact with someone who has it because they won't know either unless it's bad enough to end up in the hospital.

Maybe this is part of the plan. Have people isolate and not test unless it's bad enough to send you to the hospital. The more people who test positive the more panic sets in. Keeps the numbers down since they basically have admitted there isn't much they can down to stop it.

 I'm just hoping my immune system that seems to be made of iron will tolerate anything thrown my way. I can't tell you the last time I had the flu and I don't get flu shots due to bad reactions/side effects. I'm fine with being exposed to it as long as I can tolerate it. My husband on the other hand.... severe asthmatic who would end up being hospitalized.

I will say as a seasonal allergy sufferer this is not the time for COVID-19. Watery eyes and runny nose is mostly controlled by Claritin-D but man I sometimes just want to run my nose or eyes out of habit.

---

A few pages ago we discussed DeBlasio and his calls for nationalizing private health care. We all thought that was crazy. If I'm not mistaken italy and Spain have both nationalized the private portions of their healthcare system.

---

You basically can't get tested unless you have been out of the country or have been in contact with someone who has it. So if they aren't testing anyone, you won't know if you come in contact with someone who has it because they won't know either unless it's bad enough to end up in the hospital.

Maybe this is part of the plan. Have people isolate and not test unless it's bad enough to send you to the hospital. The more people who test positive the more panic sets in. Keeps the numbers down since they basically have admitted there isn't much they can down to stop it.

I will say as a seasonal allergy sufferer this is not the time for COVID-19. Watery eyes and runny nose is mostly controlled by Claritin-D but man I sometimes just want to run my nose or eyes out of habit.

For someone that suffers from allergies, it's not a good time at all. If I sneeze or have drainage, which is all normal, you have to worry about what someone will do if you are out in public thinking you have it.

---

Interesting analysis:

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%...vY11kefO9w

This is a synopsis of the paper, but I haven't finished reading it yet, so haven't fact checked.

The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course?

Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.

It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.

So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.

How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.

Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II.

Now, of course countries won't stand by and do nothing. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy: all symptomatic cases in the US in isolation. Families of those cases quarantined. All Americans over 70 social distancing.

This mitigation strategy is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.

And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by 8 times.

That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two Civil Wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we rely on mitigation & common sense.

Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, assuming a "suppression" strategy: isolate symptomatic cases, quarantine their family members, social distancing for the whole population, all public gatherings/most workplaces shut down, schools and universities close.

Suppression works! The death rate in the US peaks 3 weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit but don't exceed the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear.

But here's the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before.
After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better.

But we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.
How quickly will a vaccine be here? Last week three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. That's an extreme measure, but necessary.

Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for 14 months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This part can't be rushed: if you're going to inoculate all humans, you have to make absolutely sure the vaccine itself won't kill them. It probably won't, but you have to be sure.

Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.

During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and society will be disrupted in profound ways. And if suppression actually works, it will feel like we're doing all this for nothing, because infection and death rates will remain low.
It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do.

That is an interesting analysis.  If you follow that reasoning, we will be in this for a long time, and the logical conclusion is that this virus will ultimately cause a depression on a scale somewhere between the "Great Recession" of 2009 and the Great Depression of 1929-WWII.  It will be the first time in history that we have intentionally caused a depression.  

The only way we get out of this prior to developing a vaccine, which will take at least a year, is if enough people get infected to build up a population that has some immunity (herd immunity).  For this reason, I really doubt that the Chinese are out of the woods at this point.  If they just go back to the status-quo-ante, the virus will come right back, because nothing has changed.  

Building up "herd immunity" requires that a lot of people die, and we are not willing to let that happen.  At least, not yet.  

You have to come to the conclusion that we are screwed and we're heading for a depression if you do what most people do, which is take events and draw a straight line into the future.  But what gives me hope is that history never moves in a straight line.  The future is unpredictable.  

We have to figure out a way to keep the economy moving at a reasonable pace without having a whole bunch of people die.

---

All schools going virtual homeschooling that’s going to be interesting. As a homeschool family it’s not for everyone and pretty much is a full time job for one parent. No idea how dual working parents are going to manage that?

---

I will say as a seasonal allergy sufferer this is not the time for COVID-19. Watery eyes and runny nose is mostly controlled by Claritin-D but man I sometimes just want to run my nose or eyes out of habit.

For someone that suffers from allergies, it's not a good time at all. If I sneeze or have drainage, which is all normal, you have to worry about what someone will do if you are out in public thinking you have it.

Same here, with all of the pollen right now I've been coughing and sneezing for a month.  I'm so self-conscious when I cough or sneeze out in public now.  You almost always get a look.

---

Nevada shutting down all nonessential businesses, which includes casinos.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-healt...SKBN21519X

---

When you get into the endzone, act like you've been there before.

This is really crazy. There is something really fishy about this virus.

---

Interesting analysis:

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%...vY11kefO9w

This is a synopsis of the paper, but I haven't finished reading it yet, so haven't fact checked.

The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course?

...

WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE! PANIC! PANIC! PANIC!

Chill people, these simulations are garbage. That 80% used in the simulation is [BLEEP].

On the cruise ship everyone was in a closed environment with an infected person, giving it a chance to spread for 14 days before ANY response was initiated. 14 days where nearly everyone will eat in the same dining room and most of the crew will be exposed to the initial victim. In those 14 days the crew had a good chance to be infected and spread it among the passengers. Reports are that the level of quarantine after those 14 days was still feeble. Yet by the end of the month-long confinement only 17% of the people on board (including crew) caught the disease. No way 80% of the population in he USA comes down with COVID-19, not even close.

We also have a likely treatment in chloroquine, a cheap plentiful drug. That's a game changer. That lowers the death rate significantly.

The cases in Florida have been increasing, but not exponentially. Seminole county where I live showed four cases at least two days ago. It's still at four today. Nearby Orange county has increased from five to six. Again, not exponential. Self-isolation helps but I've been dining out and the restaurants are still full.

It's time to consider ending the self-isolation and get on with life. It was a good idea at the time, but seems to be no longer needed.

---

                                                                          

"Why should I give information to you when all you want to do is find something wrong with it?"

This is the best COVID site I've found. It was built by an American teenager. I especially liked the wiki, which gives a lot of information about the virus, symptoms, and what to do if you think you have it.

https://ncov2019.live

---