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Dante Fowler's Future

(This post was last modified: 10-24-2018, 11:56 AM by Upper.)

(10-24-2018, 11:36 AM)jessepeck1213 Wrote:
(10-24-2018, 06:23 AM)Upper Wrote: Pretty pretty funny how this thread disappears for exactly a month while Fowler was crickets...then he gets a sack on an unblocked stunt and bam raise this thread from the dead.

You're honestly the worst. If something doesn't fit your narrative you try and spin stuff any way you can to not admit being wrong. I've seen you post like 25 separate times that last year Fowler lucked into his sacks because they didnt match his pressures. Now it's a stat from favorite place to pick stats from, pff, saying that he is getting pressures at the same rate as yannick, and your know it all ego still wont give the tiniest bit of praise.

I actually ignored this thread while he was chilling on the milk carton for a month. I could have fit the narrative every week for a month if I wanted, but I don't have one.

All I did was laugh at how other people also ignored the thread while he wasn't doing anything, and then as soon as a speck of good happens it must be revived. If anyone has a narrative it's those guys that let the thread live and die based on how he did week to week.
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(This post was last modified: 10-24-2018, 12:17 PM by Kane.)

(10-24-2018, 10:16 AM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(10-24-2018, 09:36 AM)Kane Wrote: Church just needs to go imo. He served his stop gap purpose.
Campbell would probably restructure, otherwise certainly release. (I think in todays NFL you need two rush ends more than a "big end")
I think Malik is still playing up to his contract.

Bouye is looking like a one year wonder, however I'm wondering how much Bouye and Ramsey's semi-struggles have been because of scheme and playcall (zone obsession with Wash)
Dareus is a pretty large number too, but we shouldn't let him get away until we know we have a solid NT.

I think Telvin might need to take a pay cut though. We paid him very handsomely and he's been way out of place a lot this year... not sure what's up with that.

That ALL being said... I'm worried we're being hard on our D guys when they are on the field too much and put in bad position by the DC.

Not sure we need to dump a bunch of money into the offense though. QB should be a rookie. Perhaps we toss some more money at OL but Norwell isn't working out great.
Jags have to be careful in FA the next couple offseasons.

We need to stop trading away draft capital on a lost season, imo.
We need 2 OL (LT/RT, RG) guys, another RB, another TE, and a QB.

MORE OT OF FOWLER:
I think he's playing just as we thought he would. He's gonna earn a contract from someone. If he's cheap enough we should try to retain him. If he's commanding too much, you let him go and get that comp pick.

In terms of next year's defense, I'd say:
  • Church walks and Harrison steps in. Saves 6.2 mil in 2019. 
  • Bouye is fine unless his play doesn't normalize before season's end, and it probably will. It's not the scheme BTW. He's being beaten in man coverage early in games. Not terribly often, but giving up chunks on scoring drives. A little concerning. I bet he rallies though. If they can convince him to restructure, fine. 
  • Malik Jackson is playing great. No change needed. He's locked up and has earned his money. 
  • Dareus is a luxury we probably can't afford, but they'll need to draft one of the better NT types in the draft to replace him. Run stuffer needed.  Maybe he restructures a bit based on snap count? 
  • Campbell is either gone after this year or after 2019. Not sure what he'd be open to changing in order to stay. They have the out after this season if they want and cutting him will save 11.5 mil.  Bryan is not going to just replicate his impact right away (if ever) and they'd need to add another DE that can pass rush and play the run well. 
  • Gipson played well last season. He's been pretty good in coverage this year for the most part. He's looked bad in run support the past two weeks though. Not sure what's going on there. His replacement is not on the roster though. Could save around 7 mil by cutting him. But who takes over?  Finding a cheap replacement would really help the cap. 
So - you've got to make real decisions on Dareus and Campbell. Gipson likely stays. Bouye likely stays (at the same rate.) Jackson isn't going anywhere. And anyone you release will leave a void in need of an early/early-ish pick expenditure. 


Best case scenario is probably Dareus restructuring and the team waiting till after 2019 to cut Campbell if he's still playing well by this season's end. 
Then - If the team could somehow manage to draft an heir apparent QB, a quality rotational DE, and a run stuffing NT in 2019 they could be nicely reset in 2020 and have room to keep Ngakoue, Ramsey and Jack. 


Fowler seems destined to earn a better offer in free agency than the Jags are willing to compete with. 



I'd address offense by simply drafting the best QB they can manage to get and acquiring O-Line depth by the boatload. They can roll one more year with Parnell and Robinson at Tackle but they had better add depth and developmental guys behind them.  

WR group of Lee, Westbrook, Cole, and Chark isn't bad. A late round pick added will suffice.  I'd try to draft a mid round TE though. ASJ has one more year and he'll need a counterpart.

Pretty much fully agree.

(10-24-2018, 11:55 AM)Upper Wrote:
(10-24-2018, 11:36 AM)jessepeck1213 Wrote: You're honestly the worst. If something doesn't fit your narrative you try and spin stuff any way you can to not admit being wrong. I've seen you post like 25 separate times that last year Fowler lucked into his sacks because they didnt match his pressures. Now it's a stat from favorite place to pick stats from, pff, saying that he is getting pressures at the same rate as yannick, and your know it all ego still wont give the tiniest bit of praise.

I actually ignored this thread while he was chilling on the milk carton for a month. I could have fit the narrative every week for a month if I wanted, but I don't have one.

All I did was laugh at how other people also ignored the thread while he wasn't doing anything, and then as soon as a speck of good happens it must be revived. If anyone has a narrative it's those guys that let the thread live and die based on how he did week to week.

Eh... I see it as someone finding a relevant thread to post a new nugget of info, instead of starting up a brand new "Whos better, Yannick or Fowler" thread

They are both good players honestly.
And while Fowler was hampered early with the injury thing and some off field issues Yannick shined.
And now Yannick is getting held up a bit more and blocked better and Fowler is shining a bit more in limited snaps.

They can both be good ya know.
Especially a former top ten first rounder.
Reply


(10-24-2018, 11:55 AM)Upper Wrote:
(10-24-2018, 11:36 AM)jessepeck1213 Wrote: You're honestly the worst. If something doesn't fit your narrative you try and spin stuff any way you can to not admit being wrong. I've seen you post like 25 separate times that last year Fowler lucked into his sacks because they didnt match his pressures. Now it's a stat from favorite place to pick stats from, pff, saying that he is getting pressures at the same rate as yannick, and your know it all ego still wont give the tiniest bit of praise.

I actually ignored this thread while he was chilling on the milk carton for a month. I could have fit the narrative every week for a month if I wanted, but I don't have one.

All I did was laugh at how other people also ignored the thread while he wasn't doing anything, and then as soon as a speck of good happens it must be revived. If anyone has a narrative it's those guys that let the thread live and die based on how he did week to week.

The player literally disproved your latest attempt (out of dozens of them) to claim he was less of a talent than you wish to portray him to be.  He's proved your pressures per snap claims wrong -  and you're scrabbling away from your position now that it's discredited. You were wrong. 

Fowler is probably going to get a very sizeable contract to rush the passer elsewhere next year and all of your bashing of the guy will begin to look even dumber. 

It's really not that difficult to say you might have been wrong about a player.  I've been wrong about at least 40% of the players I've advocated as draft picks. It's not a big deal.
Reply


(10-24-2018, 12:18 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(10-24-2018, 11:55 AM)Upper Wrote: I actually ignored this thread while he was chilling on the milk carton for a month. I could have fit the narrative every week for a month if I wanted, but I don't have one.

All I did was laugh at how other people also ignored the thread while he wasn't doing anything, and then as soon as a speck of good happens it must be revived. If anyone has a narrative it's those guys that let the thread live and die based on how he did week to week.


It's really not that difficult to say you might have been wrong about a player.  I've been wrong about at least 40% of the players I've advocated as draft picks. It's not a big deal.

MMhmm

I remember saying "RG3 will have a better career than Luck"
I was a big fan of Mason Rudolph.
I was actually quite high on Fowler coming out.


I would venture to say most of us non NFL franchise employees who watch a lot of football but don't actually scout for real miss a lot more than we hit lol
And a lot of us just regurgitate what McShay or Kiper says or thinks.
Reply

(This post was last modified: 10-24-2018, 12:59 PM by Upper.)

(10-24-2018, 12:18 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(10-24-2018, 11:55 AM)Upper Wrote: I actually ignored this thread while he was chilling on the milk carton for a month. I could have fit the narrative every week for a month if I wanted, but I don't have one.

All I did was laugh at how other people also ignored the thread while he wasn't doing anything, and then as soon as a speck of good happens it must be revived. If anyone has a narrative it's those guys that let the thread live and die based on how he did week to week.

The player literally disproved your latest attempt (out of dozens of them) to claim he was less of a talent than you wish to portray him to be.  He's proved your pressures per snap claims wrong -  and you're scrabbling away from your position now that it's discredited. You were wrong. 

Fowler is probably going to get a very sizeable contract to rush the passer elsewhere next year and all of your bashing of the guy will begin to look even dumber. 

It's really not that difficult to say you might have been wrong about a player.  I've been wrong about at least 40% of the players I've advocated as draft picks. It's not a big deal.

I literally made zero comment about how well Fowler was or wasn't playing. I made one comment about how funny it was that the thread sunk to the bottom of the ocean for a month while he wasn't doing anything and then as soon as something good happens there's a scramble to revive it. That's funny and to be honest that is actually playing to a narrative. Y'all are the ones trying to spin something not me.

And sorry but if I were to admit something either way it would be after waaaaaay bigger of a sample than a measly 102 snaps. Absolutely nothing has been proven with that sample.
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(10-24-2018, 12:58 PM)Upper Wrote:
(10-24-2018, 12:18 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: The player literally disproved your latest attempt (out of dozens of them) to claim he was less of a talent than you wish to portray him to be.  He's proved your pressures per snap claims wrong -  and you're scrabbling away from your position now that it's discredited. You were wrong. 

Fowler is probably going to get a very sizeable contract to rush the passer elsewhere next year and all of your bashing of the guy will begin to look even dumber. 

It's really not that difficult to say you might have been wrong about a player.  I've been wrong about at least 40% of the players I've advocated as draft picks. It's not a big deal.

I literally made zero comment about how well Fowler was or wasn't playing. I made one comment about how funny it was that the thread sunk to the bottom of the ocean for a month while he wasn't doing anything and then as soon as something good happens there's a scramble to revive it. That's funny and to be honest that is actually playing to a narrative. Y'all are the ones trying to spin something not me.

And sorry but if I were to admit something either way it would be after waaaaaay bigger of a sample than a measly 102 snaps. Absolutely nothing has been proven with that sample.

Fowler might be the only guy on the team that's trending up right now.  Why crap on it?
Reply


(10-24-2018, 10:16 AM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(10-24-2018, 09:36 AM)Kane Wrote: Church just needs to go imo. He served his stop gap purpose.
Campbell would probably restructure, otherwise certainly release. (I think in todays NFL you need two rush ends more than a "big end")
I think Malik is still playing up to his contract.

Bouye is looking like a one year wonder, however I'm wondering how much Bouye and Ramsey's semi-struggles have been because of scheme and playcall (zone obsession with Wash)
Dareus is a pretty large number too, but we shouldn't let him get away until we know we have a solid NT.

I think Telvin might need to take a pay cut though. We paid him very handsomely and he's been way out of place a lot this year... not sure what's up with that.

That ALL being said... I'm worried we're being hard on our D guys when they are on the field too much and put in bad position by the DC.

Not sure we need to dump a bunch of money into the offense though. QB should be a rookie. Perhaps we toss some more money at OL but Norwell isn't working out great.
Jags have to be careful in FA the next couple offseasons.

We need to stop trading away draft capital on a lost season, imo.
We need 2 OL (LT/RT, RG) guys, another RB, another TE, and a QB.

MORE OT OF FOWLER:
I think he's playing just as we thought he would. He's gonna earn a contract from someone. If he's cheap enough we should try to retain him. If he's commanding too much, you let him go and get that comp pick.

In terms of next year's defense, I'd say:
  • Church walks and Harrison steps in. Saves 6.2 mil in 2019. 
  • Bouye is fine unless his play doesn't normalize before season's end, and it probably will. It's not the scheme BTW. He's being beaten in man coverage early in games. Not terribly often, but giving up chunks on scoring drives. A little concerning. I bet he rallies though. If they can convince him to restructure, fine. 
  • Malik Jackson is playing great. No change needed. He's locked up and has earned his money. 
  • Dareus is a luxury we probably can't afford, but they'll need to draft one of the better NT types in the draft to replace him. Run stuffer needed.  Maybe he restructures a bit based on snap count? 
  • Campbell is either gone after this year or after 2019. Not sure what he'd be open to changing in order to stay. They have the out after this season if they want and cutting him will save 11.5 mil.  Bryan is not going to just replicate his impact right away (if ever) and they'd need to add another DE that can pass rush and play the run well. 
  • Gipson played well last season. He's been pretty good in coverage this year for the most part. He's looked bad in run support the past two weeks though. Not sure what's going on there. His replacement is not on the roster though. Could save around 7 mil by cutting him. But who takes over?  Finding a cheap replacement would really help the cap. 
So - you've got to make real decisions on Dareus and Campbell. Gipson likely stays. Bouye likely stays (at the same rate.) Jackson isn't going anywhere. And anyone you release will leave a void in need of an early/early-ish pick expenditure. 


Best case scenario is probably Dareus restructuring and the team waiting till after 2019 to cut Campbell if he's still playing well by this season's end. 
Then - If the team could somehow manage to draft an heir apparent QB, a quality rotational DE, and a run stuffing NT in 2019 they could be nicely reset in 2020 and have room to keep Ngakoue, Ramsey and Jack. 


Fowler seems destined to earn a better offer in free agency than the Jags are willing to compete with. 



I'd address offense by simply drafting the best QB they can manage to get and acquiring O-Line depth by the boatload. They can roll one more year with Parnell and Robinson at Tackle but they had better add depth and developmental guys behind them.  

WR group of Lee, Westbrook, Cole, and Chark isn't bad. A late round pick added will suffice.  I'd try to draft a mid round TE though. ASJ has one more year and he'll need a counterpart.

Church is probably done. His replacement is already here. 

Bouye and Ramsey haven't played to the level of last year, but they are going nowhere. I'd expect them to play much better if they weren't on the field so much. I think a lot of the problem on defense is just fatigue. 

Jackson is probably going nowhere and neither is Campbell. Taven Bryan is nowhere near ready to take over for Campbell. Not even close. 

This coming draft is absolutely loaded with DT talent. There will be excellent run stuffers available all the way into round 3. One guy I particularly like is Raekwon Williams of Michigan State. As a NT, he is a key part of a rush defense which ranks 3rd in the nation. He's not as well known and could be had with a possible 3rd round pick. With that said, there is a big possibility that Dareus will not be a Jaguar in 2019.

I could possibly see a scenario where Gipson is cut, but this is not a good class to draft a Safety. With that said, one alternative might be Bears FS Adrian Amos. He is an UFA at the end of the season and is currently making "peanuts". I think it might be a pretty even trade off with a cheaper price tag. 

Fowler is gone at the end of the season and luckily, like DT, this is a great DE class. After drafting a QB in round 1, I could see us taking the best available DE and DT in the next two rounds. 

A.J. Cann is also a free agent at the end of the year. That leaves a void at RG. Hopefully, we get a 3rd round compensatory pick for Fowler and we can find a rookie RG in round 3. If not, instead of cutting Gipson or Dareus, possibly we can trade them to get some more picks, because we definitely need more depth on the O-Line. I'd use the rest of our picks to "sure-up" the offensive line and add much needed depth.
Reply


(10-24-2018, 11:31 AM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(10-24-2018, 11:19 AM)Krayz_Jville_D Wrote: only reason I'm changing course on not keeping all our high priced defensive players is because it has become painfully clear that we are not competing for a SB like I thought we were, not with this QB.

Im not saying those defenders arent worth their money, they are, but not on a team that cant win with them.  Im fine cutting church, restructuring bouye and campbell, and keeping jackson and gipson for now.  I meant to say resign fowler this year and the other 3 the following year.  I think fowler needs to stay. ...

You keep assuming that the Jags will even have a say in re-signing Fowler.  He may already be bound and determined to chase a paycheck elsewhere.

we do have a say, its called the franchise tag
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(This post was last modified: 10-24-2018, 01:57 PM by TheO-LineMatters.)

(10-24-2018, 01:53 PM)Krayz_Jville_D Wrote:
(10-24-2018, 11:31 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: You keep assuming that the Jags will even have a say in re-signing Fowler.  He may already be bound and determined to chase a paycheck elsewhere.

we do have a say, its called the franchise tag

Do you realize what the cap hit is for a DE who is franchised? Last year it was over $17 million. That 's a little less than Bortles' cap number. Where is that money coming from?
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(10-24-2018, 01:55 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(10-24-2018, 01:53 PM)Krayz_Jville_D Wrote: we do have a say, its called the franchise tag

Do you realize what the cap hit is for a DE who is franchised? Last year it was over $17 million. That 's a little less than Bortles' cap number. Where is that money coming from?

being that we dont have to pay yannick, jack, or ramsey next year, and we are likely to cut guys, or atleast, in my opinion now that we suck again we likely should, we will have the money should we choose to
Reply


(10-24-2018, 02:13 PM)Krayz_Jville_D Wrote:
(10-24-2018, 01:55 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: Do you realize what the cap hit is for a DE who is franchised? Last year it was over $17 million. That 's a little less than Bortles' cap number. Where is that money coming from?

being that we dont have to pay yannick, jack, or ramsey next year, and we are likely to cut guys, or atleast, in my opinion now that we suck again we likely should, we will have the money should we choose to

You want to pay Fowler north of 17 million dollars next year?
Reply


(10-24-2018, 02:19 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(10-24-2018, 02:13 PM)Krayz_Jville_D Wrote: being that we dont have to pay yannick, jack, or ramsey next year, and we are likely to cut guys, or atleast, in my opinion now that we suck again we likely should, we will have the money should we choose to

You want to pay Fowler north of 17 million dollars next year?

do I want too? no, but its not my money

however I know that I dont want to let a 23 or 24 year old pass rushing DT with a good motor and intensity level to just walk in free agency when DE's who can sack the QB are a rare and precious commodity.. if he was like 27 or 28 it would be different.. but hes legit like 23 or 24 iirc, as is yannick.. those 2 need to be the cornerstones of our team moving forward defensively
Reply


(10-24-2018, 02:13 PM)Krayz_Jville_D Wrote:
(10-24-2018, 01:55 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: Do you realize what the cap hit is for a DE who is franchised? Last year it was over $17 million. That 's a little less than Bortles' cap number. Where is that money coming from?

being that we dont have to pay yannick, jack, or ramsey next year, and we are likely to cut guys, or atleast, in my opinion now that we suck again we likely should, we will have the money should we choose to

We are over the cap for next season as it stands now, even if we don't extend our young guys we're still gonna have to trim a little fat just to get under the cap and we have some FA players we're gonna have to re-sign or replace and that's not counting the $17 million you want to add onto the cap. We'd have to cut a star player or two from the defense, to make that happen. We'd likely have to cut Campbell, Dareus and Jackson to franchise Fowler and have enough left to re-sign or replace our outgoing FA's. I don't want to totally dismantle the team for one guy. This draft is loaded with good, young edge rushers. We can add a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round for a much, much, much cheaper price tag.
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Can't keep Ngakoue and Fowler, since they both play the same position.

Is it possible to move Bryan to Dareus's position? I've heard he can play DE or DT.
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(10-24-2018, 03:01 PM)JagFanFirst Wrote: Can't keep Ngakoue and Fowler, since they both play the same position.

Is it possible to move Bryan to Dareus's position? I've heard he can play DE or DT.

No. Dareus is more of a NT 1 technique.  Bryan would be closer to Malik Jackson -  a 3 tech DT. 

Bryan's role may end up being a rotational 3 tech DT if he doesn't take to playing DE - but he's not going to play Dareus' role.
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And I guess the team thinks Smoot is a bust.
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(10-24-2018, 03:47 PM)JagFanFirst Wrote: And I guess the team thinks Smoot is a bust.

Smoot was a bad decision from the word, go.
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(10-24-2018, 03:47 PM)JagFanFirst Wrote: And I guess the team thinks Smoot is a bust.

I think they see Smoot as a rotational player at big end but they wanted to get Bryan snaps there this year in case he might be able to start there next season - thus relieving them of Campbell's salary. 

As it turns out, it looks like they are both more suited to being rotational players than taking over as the starter. 

May have to keep drafting unless the light goes on for Bryan by season's end.
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Some team is going to offer him a very solid contract and a chance to start. I think he's as good as gone.

From what I've heard, this year's draft is suppose to be Defense heavy. Maybe they look for his replacement there? If that's the case, then the question becomes how early of a draft pick do you use on another pass rusher? Can't wait till later in the draft to try and snag a pass rusher, but they absolutely have to use picks on the Offense as well.
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if next years draft is defensive heavy, we are in trouble
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