I have already made my point. Try to keep up.  I'll recap for you nonetheless. 

This particular virus is exhibiting an exponentially higher death rate in the US than the seasonal flu and the science and medical community know very, very little about treating it by comparison to the seasonal flu. 

It is exponentially more dangerous than the flu right now from a mortality standpoint. 

Here are the US numbers for the last round of the seasonal flu:
CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza (Table 1).

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By contrast, the predictions being touted by the white house and Fauci are estimating 100,000 US deaths from Covid-19.  

When we get close to the 16 million people needing to go to the doctor, then we can call it worse than the common flu. We still aren't close to the hospitalizations either.

Unless NYC area turns into a 3rd world country, I don't see the US reaching the numbers Fauci is saying. The models have all been higher than what is actually happening.

I hope you're right. I would really love to get back to work. This thing is going to hurt me badly financially. 

Regarding NYC: It is looking pretty dire in Brooklyn and Queens right now. Several hospitals are indeed overwhelmed.
 It's not at that 3rd world stage you allude to, but a floating hospital ship + 1000 ICU beds at the convention center + triage tents in Central Park are painting a grim outlook there.

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Did we do 60 million swine flu tests to get that #?

Don't hurt your back heaving those goalposts around there, pal.

The seasonal/common flu was the comp.

The point is the same.  

In the case of covid 19 the main screening mechanism for testing is severity of symptoms.  That leads to a skewed sample of CONFIRMED CASES.  We then divide deaths over that denominator for the case fatality rate.  

In the case of the seasonal flu we estimate based on presumed positive, projections and all the rest of it.  When you look at the people sick enough to be tested as a precursor to treatment you have a higher mortality rate than covid 19 over a much broader demographic.  

Moving the goal posts....  lol.

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The seasonal common flu kills about 500,000 in a good year. Millions on a bad year.

And your point is?

I have already made my point. Try to keep up.  I'll recap for you nonetheless. 

This particular virus is exhibiting an exponentially higher death rate in the US than the seasonal flu and the science and medical community know very, very little about treating it by comparison to the seasonal flu. 

It is exponentially more dangerous than the flu right now from a mortality standpoint. 

Here are the US numbers for the last round of the seasonal flu:
CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza (Table 1).

---

By contrast, the predictions being touted by the white house and Fauci are estimating 100,000 US deaths from Covid-19.  

Estimated: (of a value or number) roughly calculated; approximate

If you want to use estimates then the number of infected for sars cov2 is roughly 5 times the confirmed case number to have the actual death rate.  That's why faucci and the rest use the range between 1 and .1%.  Until we do antibody testing we wont know.  And this is the first 3 months of exposure to this virus with no consensus on standard of care.  Th as it's going to change radically over the next 90 days.  

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When we get close to the 16 million people needing to go to the doctor, then we can call it worse than the common flu. We still aren't close to the hospitalizations either.

Unless NYC area turns into a 3rd world country, I don't see the US reaching the numbers Fauci is saying. The models have all been higher than what is actually happening.

I hope you're right. I would really love to get back to work. This thing is going to hurt me badly financially. 

Regarding NYC: It is looking pretty dire in Brooklyn and Queens right now. Several hospitals are indeed overwhelmed.
 It's not at that 3rd world stage you allude to, but a floating hospital ship + 1000 ICU beds at the convention center + triage tents in Central Park are painting a grim outlook there.

Day on day infection rate showing signs of slowing

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I have already made my point. Try to keep up.  I'll recap for you nonetheless. 

This particular virus is exhibiting an exponentially higher death rate in the US than the seasonal flu and the science and medical community know very, very little about treating it by comparison to the seasonal flu. 

It is exponentially more dangerous than the flu right now from a mortality standpoint. 

Here are the US numbers for the last round of the seasonal flu:
CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza (Table 1).

---

By contrast, the predictions being touted by the white house and Fauci are estimating 100,000 US deaths from Covid-19.  

When we get close to the 16 million people needing to go to the doctor, then we can call it worse than the common flu. We still aren't close to the hospitalizations either.

Unless NYC area turns into a 3rd world country, I don't see the US reaching the numbers Fauci is saying. The models have all been higher than what is actually happening.

It isn't about the total number of people requiring medical help over an annual period. It's about the number of people requiring medical help in the same period of time. 

Flattening the curve isn't about ridding ourselves of the virus. We're all eventually going to be exposed to it. It's about slowing that exposure to a rate that our healthcare system can handle at any one given time.

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When we get close to the 16 million people needing to go to the doctor, then we can call it worse than the common flu. We still aren't close to the hospitalizations either.

Unless NYC area turns into a 3rd world country, I don't see the US reaching the numbers Fauci is saying. The models have all been higher than what is actually happening.

I hope you're right. I would really love to get back to work. This thing is going to hurt me badly financially. 

Regarding NYC: It is looking pretty dire in Brooklyn and Queens right now. Several hospitals are indeed overwhelmed.
 It's not at that 3rd world stage you allude to, but a floating hospital ship + 1000 ICU beds at the convention center + triage tents in Central Park are painting a grim outlook there.

It is definitely bad there. I have family and coworkers there and someone said today one hospital has stopped accepting patients over 70 years old unless they sign a waiver that they won't get a ventilator. Not sure if that is true, because it wouldn't fly legally, but it is approaching that level.

---

I hope you're right. I would really love to get back to work. This thing is going to hurt me badly financially. 

Regarding NYC: It is looking pretty dire in Brooklyn and Queens right now. Several hospitals are indeed overwhelmed.
 It's not at that 3rd world stage you allude to, but a floating hospital ship + 1000 ICU beds at the convention center + triage tents in Central Park are painting a grim outlook there.

It is definitely bad there. I have family and coworkers there and someone said today one hospital has stopped accepting patients over 70 years old unless they sign a waiver that they won't get a ventilator. Not sure if that is true, because it wouldn't fly legally, but it is approaching that level.

My friend is a PT in a NYC hospital. She's working directly with Covid patients right now. One N95 for the past week that she uses for the whole day and then she bakes it when she gets home. It's not pretty there.

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Good thing NY doesn't have 38 million like Seoul.

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I have already made my point. Try to keep up.  I'll recap for you nonetheless. 

This particular virus is exhibiting an exponentially higher death rate in the US than the seasonal flu and the science and medical community know very, very little about treating it by comparison to the seasonal flu. 

It is exponentially more dangerous than the flu right now from a mortality standpoint. 

Here are the US numbers for the last round of the seasonal flu:
CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza (Table 1).

---

By contrast, the predictions being touted by the white house and Fauci are estimating 100,000 US deaths from Covid-19.  

Estimated: (of a value or number) roughly calculated; approximate

 

---

I hope you're right. I would really love to get back to work. This thing is going to hurt me badly financially. 

Regarding NYC: It is looking pretty dire in Brooklyn and Queens right now. Several hospitals are indeed overwhelmed.
 It's not at that 3rd world stage you allude to, but a floating hospital ship + 1000 ICU beds at the convention center + triage tents in Central Park are painting a grim outlook there.

Day on day infection rate showing signs of slowing

That was yesterday. The rate jumped back up today.

March 31: The total number of confirmed Covid-19 cases is close to breaching the 800,000 mark, as new cases reversed yesterday’s downward trend and jumped from 58,487 to 62,445.

https://www.evaluate.com/covid-19-daily-update

---

I hope you're right. I would really love to get back to work. This thing is going to hurt me badly financially. 

Regarding NYC: It is looking pretty dire in Brooklyn and Queens right now. Several hospitals are indeed overwhelmed.
 It's not at that 3rd world stage you allude to, but a floating hospital ship + 1000 ICU beds at the convention center + triage tents in Central Park are painting a grim outlook there.

It is definitely bad there. I have family and coworkers there and someone said today one hospital has stopped accepting patients over 70 years old unless they sign a waiver that they won't get a ventilator. Not sure if that is true, because it wouldn't fly legally, but it is approaching that level.

I'm going to have to call bull [BLEEP] on this claim.  No health care professional or institution is going to turn away a potential patient based on age and they certainly won't deny proper treatment.  The amount of crap being spread by media in general (both traditional MSM and social media) is a huge problem.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.

It is definitely bad there. I have family and coworkers there and someone said today one hospital has stopped accepting patients over 70 years old unless they sign a waiver that they won't get a ventilator. Not sure if that is true, because it wouldn't fly legally, but it is approaching that level.

I'm going to have to call bull [BLEEP] on this claim.  No health care professional or institution is going to turn away a potential patient based on age and they certainly won't deny proper treatment.  The amount of crap being spread by media in general (both traditional MSM and social media) is a huge problem.

It really isn't far-fetched.  (maybe it's bull - maybe not)
It's not that the patient is being flatly denied care altogether, they just aren't able to promise them a ventilator at that particular hospital. Said patient would have to seek admission elsewhere if they want  the assurance of a ventilator.  We knew this was going to happen, it's why hospitals have been begging for more ventilators for weeks on end now. This could be the beginning of that particular shortage rearing its ugly head.

---

Distribution is more of an issue for PPE (especially masks) than production. This is a fact and you are trying to sweep it under the rug. 

And feel free to elaborate on this FEMA distribution that's "to your knowledge." 

The facts are that the legislation calls for the federal government to aid distribution and it isn't happening. 

Please tell me how incredibly logistically difficult it would be for our military to use planes and trucks to move federally supplied or federally collected PPE to airports or distribution centers as near their final destination as possible. I'd love to hear why that's so impossible. 
Panacea?  Are you joking? We're talking about a dozen or so planes and maybe 40 trucks. Just enough to alleviate the most clogged arteries in the private sector supply chain. Oh, what a strain that would place on our military's capabilities. Please.

Every day that these doctors, nurses, techs, and employees expose themselves repeatedly to this virus because they are under-equipped - it is going to ultimately cost lives. That's unacceptable. Asking for a common sense measure to prevent it , THAT IS PROVIDED FOR IN THE LETTER OF THE LAW TRUMP ENACTED, seems like the most basic sensible request.
And you somehow think it's too much.

I understand your concern and it is valid.  That is assuming that there are stockpiles sitting in a warehouse somewhere waiting to be shipped.  I don't know that for a fact.  I also don't know for a fact that the private supply/transport system is over-burdened at this point.

To answer your question regarding using available military means to move supplies, it is possible and I assume that there probably is a plan in place should something like that be needed.  I am only speculating that at this point it is unnecessary to activate military assets for such a thing.

Again I understand your point and your concern, but without all of the facts it's impossible to say whether or not the President is or is not doing the right thing.

VP Pence just moments ago mentioned that they are exploring using the national guard to move PPE from warehouses and distribution centers to the places they are needed most. 

Exactly what I've been saying for 11 days they should have been doing.   They are only just now pursuing this as a possibility - 11 days after enacting legislation that calls for it. 

I am not trying to call you out at all. Just pointing out that the very suggestion I was chided about here for page after page is now being touted by the white house as a viable aid to the hard hit areas.

I still believe this should be happening on a federal level as opposed to states, but at least they are mobilizing these Guard troops under title 32 in 5-7 states meaning the feds will pay for it.

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I'm going to have to call bull [BLEEP] on this claim.  No health care professional or institution is going to turn away a potential patient based on age and they certainly won't deny proper treatment.  The amount of crap being spread by media in general (both traditional MSM and social media) is a huge problem.

It really isn't far-fetched.  (maybe it's bull - maybe not)
It's not that the patient is being flatly denied care altogether, they just aren't able to promise them a ventilator at that particular hospital. Said patient would have to seek admission elsewhere if they want  the assurance of a ventilator.  We knew this was going to happen, it's why hospitals have been begging for more ventilators for weeks on end now. This could be the beginning of that particular shortage rearing its ugly head.

Also why the government has been trying to tell everyone to stay home. So this wouldn't happen. And yet people still aren't listening. I don't like being told what to do, especially by the government and their alphabet agencies, but as someone with a medical background and some reading knowledge on some subjects, it doesn't take much for me to understand the why of these shelter in place orders which you explained plainly. 

The media is hyping the [BLEEP] out of this virus, but look at videos on youtube of healthcare workers in hospitals in NYC and you'll see that in some instances the media is not far off the mark in their "reporting".

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Kinda on and off topic,

I had someone tell me that they went out to get groceries and was pleasantly surprised by how “extra” nice people have been. I personally am not seeing that. It seems like “every man for themselves” and everyone giving each other the stink eye because “I’m healthy but I don’t trust you” type deal.

Also, and this is only my opinion, but even on here I’m seeing a bunch of people “arguing” that normally wouldn’t. Media hype, fear of catching the virus, social distancing, boredom or lack of TP seems to be taking its toll on people. I’ve been short with people, so I’m guilty as well. It’s been frustrating, aggravating, depressing, boring amongst so many other emotions. Maybe even creating anxiety for some or financial difficulties for others. Not to sound like a hippie, but let’s just get along. Be nice to someone. Say something kind. Whatever.

---

Estimated: (of a value or number) roughly calculated; approximate

 

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Day on day infection rate showing signs of slowing

That was yesterday. The rate jumped back up today.

March 31: The total number of confirmed Covid-19 cases is close to breaching the 800,000 mark, as new cases reversed yesterday’s downward trend and jumped from 58,487 to 62,445.

https://www.evaluate.com/covid-19-daily-update

I was talking about ny

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I'm going to have to call bull [BLEEP] on this claim.  No health care professional or institution is going to turn away a potential patient based on age and they certainly won't deny proper treatment.  The amount of crap being spread by media in general (both traditional MSM and social media) is a huge problem.

It really isn't far-fetched.  (maybe it's bull - maybe not)
It's not that the patient is being flatly denied care altogether, they just aren't able to promise them a ventilator at that particular hospital. Said patient would have to seek admission elsewhere if they want  the assurance of a ventilator.  We knew this was going to happen, it's why hospitals have been begging for more ventilators for weeks on end now. This could be the beginning of that particular shortage rearing its ugly head.

Cuomo said he has 4k in a warehouse....  

We just invented a mechanism to have 1 unit seeve 4 patients.  

1.) We dont know that it's TRUE. 
2.,) no boogeymen.

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I understand your concern and it is valid.  That is assuming that there are stockpiles sitting in a warehouse somewhere waiting to be shipped.  I don't know that for a fact.  I also don't know for a fact that the private supply/transport system is over-burdened at this point.

To answer your question regarding using available military means to move supplies, it is possible and I assume that there probably is a plan in place should something like that be needed.  I am only speculating that at this point it is unnecessary to activate military assets for such a thing.

Again I understand your point and your concern, but without all of the facts it's impossible to say whether or not the President is or is not doing the right thing.

VP Pence just moments ago mentioned that they are exploring using the national guard to move PPE from warehouses and distribution centers to the places they are needed most. 

Exactly what I've been saying for 11 days they should have been doing.   They are only just now pursuing this as a possibility - 11 days after enacting legislation that calls for it. 

I am not trying to call you out at all. Just pointing out that the very suggestion I was chided about here for page after page is now being touted by the white house as a viable aid to the hard hit areas.

I still believe this should be happening on a federal level as opposed to states, but at least they are mobilizing these Guard troops under title 32 in 5-7 states meaning the feds will pay for it.

I dont think anyone here opposed the idea. The point I was making was that the feds were and are shipping millions and millions of units of PPE.

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Kinda on and off topic,

I had someone tell me that they went out to get groceries and was pleasantly surprised by how “extra” nice people have been.  I personally am not seeing that.  It seems like “every man for themselves” and everyone giving each other the stink eye because “I’m healthy but I don’t trust you” type deal.  

Also, and this is only my opinion, but even on here I’m seeing a bunch of people “arguing” that normally wouldn’t.  Media hype, fear of catching the virus, social distancing,  boredom or lack of TP seems to be taking its toll on people.  I’ve been short with people, so I’m guilty as well.  It’s been frustrating, aggravating, depressing, boring amongst so many other emotions.  Maybe even creating anxiety for some or financial difficulties for others.  Not to sound like a hippie, but let’s just get along.  Be nice to someone.  Say something kind. Whatever.

Peoples lives are being destroyed under the blind promise that when it's our turn to be intubated, there will be a ventilator available.  Forgive us our misgivings.  

Wait till people find out that it's been nearly two decades and they still dont have a vaccine for SARS 1.  

As an aside, everyone take  short walk around ur house.  Everything you see that's not produced by someone in your household is created in the integrated market economy.  We are shutting that down.  People will not allow poverty to be forceably imposed on them.  This has NEVER been done before.  There are already riots in italy.  I pray that these next 30 days work.  If not, first you'll see shortages, then you could see hyper inflation....  then.  

Would someone please ask the good king Faucci what was the result of the double blind clinical trial for societal collapse in a country with 300 million plus firearms.

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Kinda on and off topic,

I had someone tell me that they went out to get groceries and was pleasantly surprised by how “extra” nice people have been.  I personally am not seeing that.  It seems like “every man for themselves” and everyone giving each other the stink eye because “I’m healthy but I don’t trust you” type deal.  

Also, and this is only my opinion, but even on here I’m seeing a bunch of people “arguing” that normally wouldn’t.  Media hype, fear of catching the virus, social distancing,  boredom or lack of TP seems to be taking its toll on people.  I’ve been short with people, so I’m guilty as well.  It’s been frustrating, aggravating, depressing, boring amongst so many other emotions.  Maybe even creating anxiety for some or financial difficulties for others.  Not to sound like a hippie, but let’s just get along.  Be nice to someone.  Say something kind. Whatever.

Peoples lives are being destroyed under the blind promise that when it's our turn to be intubated, there will be a ventilator available.  Forgive us our misgivings.  

Wait till people find out that it's been nearly two decades and they still dont have a vaccine for SARS 1.  

As an aside, everyone take  short walk around ur house.  Everything you see that's not produced by someone in your household is created in the integrated market economy.  We are shutting that down.  People will not allow poverty to be forceably imposed on them.  This has NEVER been done before.  There are already riots in italy.  I pray that these next 30 days work.  If not, first you'll see shortages, then you could see hyper inflation....  then.  

Would someone please ask the good king Faucci what was the result of the double blind clinical trial for societal collapse in a country with 300 million plus firearms.

Fauci's job is to advise from the worst case scenarios since the data is lacking. There is no confidence in the models which is why the range is so high. Trump has the job to balance Fauci's the sky is falling with reality of needing to keep people employed and the country running.

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Ah let's blame Fauci for stuff you don't like, the guy who isn't in charge.

If you think the response has been bad that is on Trump, you know the reality TV star you wanted as President.

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Ah let's blame Fauci for stuff you don't like, the guy who isn't in charge.

If you think the response has been bad that is on Trump, you know the reality TV star you wanted as President.

I didn't vote for Trump and don't particularly care for him but he's not "the leading expert on infectious disease in America" as Fauci is being called, so if Fauci is putting out numbers people don't like, that's not on Trump. That's based on data these so called experts are giving each other.

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Ah let's blame Fauci for stuff you don't like, the guy who isn't in charge.

If you think the response has been bad that is on Trump, you know the reality TV star you wanted as President.

I didn't vote for Trump and don't particularly care for him but he's not "the leading expert on infectious disease in America" as Fauci is being called, so if Fauci is putting out numbers people don't like, that's not on Trump. That's based on data these so called experts are giving each other.

Exactly.  If you ever notice, when it comes to pharmaceutical treatments "this is anecdotal, I understand if you want to give someone hope, but in order to prove something will work you have to have blind, controlled trials etc."  

When it comes to shutting down states and businesses (shovelling aquarium cleaner down the throat of the economy) "we know we're" having some affect but we cant quantify it."  Thats a problem.  Why? Because if you're going to prescribe social distancing there is a diminishing return with each layer.  By that I mean once you cancel large sporting events and gatherings over a certain size and then have people increase hygiene, decrease physical contact, etc then theres a reduction in transmission.  How much more or less of an impact do u have when you then place a stay @ home order and shutter a state?  The economic impact is exponential but the potential health benefits are @ the inverse point on the spectrum.  He never refers to the measures taken in Kansas or Va as anecdotal needing more study.  

He acknowledges that there is a potential for seasonality.  An indicator for seasonality would be an increase in transmission rates in southern hemisphere countries as they enter their winter cycle (an inverse correlation between transmission rates and temperature).  But any decrease in transmission rates for northern hemisphere countries is due solely to the efficacy of social distancing.  

My point is that Fauci, Birx, the medical and political establishment are all leading towards the mitigation model and they favor models to support that conclusion, but those models while they include raw data are based on assumptions, projections, and opinions that are subject to institutional bias.  


Not to mention the fact. No one-not even the president- has demonstrated any serious thought to the actual economic consequences of their actions. In an AOC society we think of the economy as some casino for wall street to game with our careers. In reality it's the means by which we produce & deliver all the goods and services that make up life as we understand it. In other words. it's the life support system for some 300 million americans, basically anyone not living on a farm. The idea that 5 or 6 people in a room can manage infinite interconnected supply chains that the producers themselves dont fully see or comprehend is exactly why people have to dig in garbage cans to feed themselves in venezuala, why the Soviet union collapsed, why there are no new cars in Cuba etc.

For every unit of unemployment there is a correlation to a certain amount of death. Some say 30k some 60, but that # exists. I also think there is the potential for a tipping point. By that I mean, at a certain point if you declare 75% of the country non essential then theres only a matter of time before the 25% of people still working cant produce enough to supply the other 75%. Right now were trying to paper over those cracks by printing the pictures of past presidents on green pieces of paper. If the shelves are empty @ a store that's closed what does that mean? Weve never really dealt with massive inflation since the 80s. That's a universal tax on every american to instantly pay for the 8 trillion (counting the new proposed phase 4 stimulus) were throwing @ this while also having to endure hundreds of billions of dollars in lost economic activity.

I'll stress again, this has never been done before. Pearl Harbor, civil war, 911 they all created crisis, but the answer to those crisis included industrial expansion and increased employment. Weve never intentionally imposed a 25% (according to estimates) reduction in GDP.

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If were going to pursue a strategy of social mitigation, this 30 days HAS to work. If were here on may 1st still talking about lockdowns...

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