Lance Zierlein's 3 Favorite Picks by Round

https://www.nfl.com/news/2021-nfl-draft-...s-by-round

Now do all the ones that said Etienne was a bad pick.....

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are you speaking to our strategy/picks, or the class itself? It seemed like this class had a lot of linemen, especially in that 25-45 range.

My fear is that we have a big hole next year and end up with a Luke Joeckel clone because we are chasing need. Let's hope that Little is able to fill one of the spots, at least.

Because we have so many expiring contracts on the O-Line after the season and we really didn't draft or bring anyone in to replace them. We are "placing all our eggs in one basket" that Little will be able to win one of the OT positions. If he fails, we are in an even more uncomfortable position. Robinson, Norwell, Cann, Richardson and Shatley will all be UDFA's at the end of the season. Linder will have a $10 million cap hit in 2022, so they might want to get rid of him as well. That would be a ton of turnover. Not to mention that if Taylor doesn't step up his play significantly, he will have to be replaced. He was statistically the lowest rated starting OT in the NFL last season. I would have at least brought in 2-3 UDFA O-Linemen to compete for roster spots, but we didn't. I'm really concerned about suffering any major injuries this year as well.

I was also looking at the potential O-Line class for the 2022 draft and it is bleak.

I believe the Jags still have the most money in salary cap space. If these guys perform they will be resigned no problem.  If not then dump the dead weight.  I think the Little Pick is our long term LT.

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Because we have so many expiring contracts on the O-Line after the season and we really didn't draft or bring anyone in to replace them. We are "placing all our eggs in one basket" that Little will be able to win one of the OT positions. If he fails, we are in an even more uncomfortable position. Robinson, Norwell, Cann, Richardson and Shatley will all be UDFA's at the end of the season. Linder will have a $10 million cap hit in 2022, so they might want to get rid of him as well. That would be a ton of turnover. Not to mention that if Taylor doesn't step up his play significantly, he will have to be replaced. He was statistically the lowest rated starting OT in the NFL last season. I would have at least brought in 2-3 UDFA O-Linemen to compete for roster spots, but we didn't. I'm really concerned about suffering any major injuries this year as well.

I was also looking at the potential O-Line class for the 2022 draft and it is bleak.

I believe the Jags still have the most money in salary cap space. If these guys perform they will be resigned no problem.  If not then dump the dead weight.  I think the Little Pick is our long term LT.

They pretty much have to or else we're screwed! Next year's O-Line class doesn't appear that strong at all and I don't wanna draft a subpar player, just because we have no one else. As far as having a ton of cap space, keep in mind the cap savings roles over from year to year. We now have what many perceive is a franchise QB. If he performs as expected, in 4-5 years he's gonna command a contract somewhere in the neighborhood of what Aaron Rodgers and DeShaun Watson are making. We just can't go on wild spending sprees now. We have to save for the future. We've all wanted a franchise QB for a very, very long time. If this thing pans out and Trevor becomes what we think he can be, it's gonna cost a very large percentage of our cap. That's why it's so important to build via the draft. You get smaller contracts and have those players for a longer period of time at a cheap rate. I was hoping we'd add more than one O-Linemen for this purpose. Our best O-Linemen are all veteran interior players that will command a lot more money in free agency. We have to start spending wisely. 

Little MUST pan out. Look how much Trent Williams got in free agency last year. I certainly don't see any Penei Sewell, Rashad Slater or Christian Darrisaw in next year's draft. If Little fails, our best bet might be the FA route and that's gonna be expensive, but protecting Lawrence has to be the highest priority. Of all the players we added outside of Lawrence, Little has the most pressure on him to succeed.

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Of course, recruiting and developing at the college level is different from identifying and drafting talent at the NFL level.

Very different. He was an excellent college recruiter. He could scattershot offers at all of the highest rated players and get them as good as anyone. We don't really know anything about his ability to identify talent.

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Of course, recruiting and developing at the college level is different from identifying and drafting talent at the NFL level.

Very different. He was an excellent college recruiter. He could scattershot offers at all of the highest rated players and get them as good as anyone. We don't really know anything about his ability to identify talent.

How do you think he identified who to recruit? Do you think he just read Sports Illustrated and made offers to the most popular players? Lol.

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I'm condescending. That means I talk down to you. 
Check out the Jag's Forum Alternative: Duval Football Fans.

Very different. He was an excellent college recruiter. He could scattershot offers at all of the highest rated players and get them as good as anyone. We don't really know anything about his ability to identify talent.

How do you think he identified who to recruit? Do you think he just read Sports Illustrated and made offers to the most popular players? Lol.

Were it a Venn diagram, there would be significant but not complete overlap between the circles.  You still have to be able to identify talent to recruit on such a level.  You have to be able to convince that talent to come to Ohio State (or Florida) and you have to coach and develop that talent to make it appealing to NFL teams.

NFL teams have to identify the talent, rank that talent in comparison with other talent, be able to project which teams might want which talent, and then adjust on the fly when the unexpected happens.

You still have to be able to identify the talent, acquire the talent and develop both as a college coach and an NFL coach. That's the overlap. How you acquire the talent is alot different.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2021-...cos-lions/

This site ranks the draft classes 1-32...or 32-1.

The Jaguars ranked 22nd.

Favorite pick: Tyson Campbell. The Georgia cornerback had a late first-round grade from us and ended up as the first selection of Round 2. He's a long, physical corner who is smooth in his transitions, he just needs to be more productive in creating turnovers.

Best value: USC'S Jay Tufele  was a mid-third-rounder for us but a weak defensive line class depressed the position's value throughout the league. It started at the top, with Christian Barmore (first-round talent who went early in Round 2) all the way through 250th pick Khyiris Tonga.

Most surprising pick: Stanford's Walker Little  was the 13th pick of the second round and we liked him more as an early fourth-rounder. But there's an easy explanation: Little opted out last season and prior to that he battled injuries. We just haven't seen a lot of him, though a year ago he was certainly in the first-round conversation (Little made an appearance in our way-too-early 2021 mock draft that was published last May). The Jaguars were clearly comfortable with his medicals and his decision to opt out and perhaps in a few years' time we're talking about this as one of most prescient picks in this draft.

I can understand this ranking on its face.  But there's a lot I don't and can't understand.

  What I can't understand at ALL is ranking our draft below Houston's.

In every single one of his 34 or so mock drafts, he had Trevor Lawrence-the Jaguars 1st draft pick-mocked to go 1st overall.  I don't recall him ever mocking Davis Mills in the first round.  By his own admission, he had Tyson Campbell ranked as a first round talent.  Nobody in the Texans draft was ranked as a first round talent by his own ranking system.  Even if he felt Etienne was taken a full round above where he should have been taken, by his own takes, the Jaguars have at least three players who carry a minimum of a second round grade.  Houston didn't.  His favorite pick for the Texans is a TE that ran a 4.9 40 at his own Pro Day.  If you examined our draft, there are at last three players, perhaps four who would likely start for Houston immediately{  Lawrence, Etienne, Campbell and Cisco.  Do any of the Texans draft picks start for us-as a 1-15 team?  Probably not.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Very different. He was an excellent college recruiter. He could scattershot offers at all of the highest rated players and get them as good as anyone. We don't really know anything about his ability to identify talent.

How do you think he identified who to recruit? Do you think he just read Sports Illustrated and made offers to the most popular players? Lol.

There is some geographical aspect to it, and it's rivals/scout/espn300/247 not SI...but yeah that's basically how it works.

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are you speaking to our strategy/picks, or the class itself? It seemed like this class had a lot of linemen, especially in that 25-45 range.

My fear is that we have a big hole next year and end up with a Luke Joeckel clone because we are chasing need. Let's hope that Little is able to fill one of the spots, at least.

Because we have so many expiring contracts on the O-Line after the season and we really didn't draft or bring anyone in to replace them. We are "placing all our eggs in one basket" that Little will be able to win one of the OT positions. If he fails, we are in an even more uncomfortable position. Robinson, Norwell, Cann, Richardson and Shatley will all be UDFA's at the end of the season. Linder will have a $10 million cap hit in 2022, so they might want to get rid of him as well. That would be a ton of turnover. Not to mention that if Taylor doesn't step up his play significantly, he will have to be replaced. He was statistically the lowest rated starting OT in the NFL last season. I would have at least brought in 2-3 UDFA O-Linemen to compete for roster spots, but we didn't. I'm really concerned about suffering any major injuries this year as well.

I was also looking at the potential O-Line class for the 2022 draft and it is bleak.

/chugs Maalox

super.

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https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2021-...cos-lions/

This site ranks the draft classes 1-32...or 32-1.

The Jaguars ranked 22nd.

Favorite pick: Tyson Campbell. The Georgia cornerback had a late first-round grade from us and ended up as the first selection of Round 2. He's a long, physical corner who is smooth in his transitions, he just needs to be more productive in creating turnovers.

Best value: USC'S Jay Tufele  was a mid-third-rounder for us but a weak defensive line class depressed the position's value throughout the league. It started at the top, with Christian Barmore (first-round talent who went early in Round 2) all the way through 250th pick Khyiris Tonga.

Most surprising pick: Stanford's Walker Little  was the 13th pick of the second round and we liked him more as an early fourth-rounder. But there's an easy explanation: Little opted out last season and prior to that he battled injuries. We just haven't seen a lot of him, though a year ago he was certainly in the first-round conversation (Little made an appearance in our way-too-early 2021 mock draft that was published last May). The Jaguars were clearly comfortable with his medicals and his decision to opt out and perhaps in a few years' time we're talking about this as one of most prescient picks in this draft.

I can understand this ranking on its face.  But there's a lot I don't and can't understand.

  What I can't understand at ALL is ranking our draft below Houston's.

In every single one of his 34 or so mock drafts, he had Trevor Lawrence-the Jaguars 1st draft pick-mocked to go 1st overall.  I don't recall him ever mocking Davis Mills in the first round.  By his own admission, he had Tyson Campbell ranked as a first round talent.  Nobody in the Texans draft was ranked as a first round talent by his own ranking system.  Even if he felt Etienne was taken a full round above where he should have been taken, by his own takes, the Jaguars have at least three players who carry a minimum of a second round grade.  Houston didn't.  His favorite pick for the Texans is a TE that ran a 4.9 40 at his own Pro Day.  If you examined our draft, there are at last three players, perhaps four who would likely start for Houston immediately{  Lawrence, Etienne, Campbell and Cisco.  Do any of the Texans draft picks start for us-as a 1-15 team?  Probably not.

They have the Ravens and the Chargers ranked near the bottom. This is an outlier.

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https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2021-...cos-lions/

This site ranks the draft classes 1-32...or 32-1.

The Jaguars ranked 22nd.




I can understand this ranking on its face.  But there's a lot I don't and can't understand.

  What I can't understand at ALL is ranking our draft below Houston's.

In every single one of his 34 or so mock drafts, he had Trevor Lawrence-the Jaguars 1st draft pick-mocked to go 1st overall.  I don't recall him ever mocking Davis Mills in the first round.  By his own admission, he had Tyson Campbell ranked as a first round talent.  Nobody in the Texans draft was ranked as a first round talent by his own ranking system.  Even if he felt Etienne was taken a full round above where he should have been taken, by his own takes, the Jaguars have at least three players who carry a minimum of a second round grade.  Houston didn't.  His favorite pick for the Texans is a TE that ran a 4.9 40 at his own Pro Day.  If you examined our draft, there are at last three players, perhaps four who would likely start for Houston immediately{  Lawrence, Etienne, Campbell and Cisco.  Do any of the Texans draft picks start for us-as a 1-15 team?  Probably not.

They have the Ravens and the Chargers ranked near the bottom. This is an outlier.

To be honest, I'm not thrilled with the Ravens draft this year.

But based upon many of the criteria that Wilson himself established, there's no justification for the rankings.

Jacksonville wound up with nearly double the picks Houston did (9-5).  We picked five players before the Texans picked one.  Aside from their picks not likely to start for our team, they aren't even likely to start for their team.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

How do you think he identified who to recruit? Do you think he just read Sports Illustrated and made offers to the most popular players? Lol.

There is some geographical aspect to it, and it's rivals/scout/espn300/247 not SI...but yeah that's basically how it works.

Oh, you know how it works? Lol!

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How do you think he identified who to recruit? Do you think he just read Sports Illustrated and made offers to the most popular players? Lol.

There is some geographical aspect to it, and it's rivals/scout/espn300/247 not SI...but yeah that's basically how it works.

If that were true, you or I or the ESPN editors could be in the top 3 winningest coaches in NCAA history. Sorry, but there's more to it than that.

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I'm condescending. That means I talk down to you. 
Check out the Jag's Forum Alternative: Duval Football Fans.

Here is another site that tries to grade according to perceived value of the picks when they were made, just like the CBS grade I cited earlier.

The problem is, this methodology renders Trevor Lawrence as a complete null factor because he was perceived as the #1 overall pick from the very beginning and the Jaguars took him 1st overall.

Odd that a guy deemed a generational prospect at the most important position in football is a non factor in determining draft performance.

http://thehuddlereport.com/valuegrades.shtml

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Ranked 24th on a per pick basis post the Tlaw no brainer sounds about right to me.

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Here is another site that tries to grade according to perceived value of the picks when they were made, just like the CBS grade I cited earlier.

The problem is, this methodology renders Trevor Lawrence as a complete null factor because he was perceived as the #1 overall pick from the very beginning and the Jaguars took him 1st overall.

Odd that a guy deemed a generational prospect at the most important position in football is a non factor in determining draft performance.

http://thehuddlereport.com/valuegrades.shtml

I'd take our draft over the Broncos tbh

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Here is another site that tries to grade according to perceived value of the picks when they were made, just like the CBS grade I cited earlier.

The problem is, this methodology renders Trevor Lawrence as a complete null factor because he was perceived as the #1 overall pick from the very beginning and the Jaguars took him 1st overall.

Odd that a guy deemed a generational prospect at the most important position in football is a non factor in determining draft performance.

http://thehuddlereport.com/valuegrades.shtml

I'd take our draft over the Broncos tbh

Of course you would. Their third pick was #98, our 5th pick was #65. That's why this is a value list and not an overall list.

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I'd take our draft over the Broncos tbh

Of course you would. Their third pick was #98, our 5th pick was #65. That's why this is a value list and not an overall list.

It's clear the guy grading the list doesn't like players with medicals.

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Of course you would. Their third pick was #98, our 5th pick was #65. That's why this is a value list and not an overall list.

It's clear the guy grading the list doesn't like players with medicals.

I like the idea of drafting guys with medical concerns in the later rounds. I'd rather have a 1st round talent guy in the third, who has a slim chance of not playing because of injury vs a guy who just flat out sucks and wont make the team past his rookie contract.

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Here is another site that tries to grade according to perceived value of the picks when they were made, just like the CBS grade I cited earlier.

The problem is, this methodology renders Trevor Lawrence as a complete null factor because he was perceived as the #1 overall pick from the very beginning and the Jaguars took him 1st overall.

Odd that a guy deemed a generational prospect at the most important position in football is a non factor in determining draft performance.

http://thehuddlereport.com/valuegrades.shtml

The only issue with this report is you must buy into whoever put a grade on the player. If whoever put the grade on the player is wrong then it all falls apart. No person unless they have a crystal ball can do this, so the only person this article helped is the writer who got paid to write it and maybe some advertisers? On a side note they have let some scouts go, about time in my opinion as they have as much to do with our dismal drafting in the past as anyone else.

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A new broom always sweeps clean.