Kirk's deal looking better and better as time passes. 

https://www.si.com/nfl/jaguars/news/jagu...kupp-adams

A lot of people said we way overpaid for Kirk, but subsequent events have proven that that is not true.

Always loved the deal. 

I also don’t think Kirk has hit his ceiling yet either. Trevor is going to spread the wealth but Kirk is going to be really good for the Jags. I’ve literally never been wrong either so take it to the bank.

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Kirk's deal looking better and better as time passes. 

https://www.si.com/nfl/jaguars/news/jagu...kupp-adams

A lot of people said we way overpaid for Kirk, but subsequent events have proven that that is not true.

Kirk's is but salary's are past crazy. It makes you wonder what kind of deal Lawrence is going to end up signing if he turns out to be the player we all think he is.

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I'm condescending. That means I talk down to you.

Kupp - 3 years $80 million (145 receptioons -1947 yards - 16 tds)
Kirk - 4 years $84 million (77 - receptions - 982 yards - 5 tds)

I'd take Kupp any day under their comparative contracts.

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Kirk's deal looking better and better as time passes. 

https://www.si.com/nfl/jaguars/news/jagu...kupp-adams

A lot of people said we way overpaid for Kirk, but subsequent events have proven that that is not true.

Always loved the deal. 

I also don’t think Kirk has hit his ceiling yet either. Trevor is going to spread the wealth but Kirk is going to be really good for the Jags. I’ve literally never been wrong either so take it to the bank.

I wasn't aware!  Thanks so much for that.  I've had trouble getting excited about this upcoming season in spite of all the positives, but not any more!  

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Kupp - 3 years $80 million (145 receptioons  -1947 yards - 16 tds)
Kirk - 4 years $84 million  (77 - receptions - 982 yards - 5 tds)

I'd take Kupp any day under their comparative contracts.

Well to be fair, Kupp's contract has $75 million guaranteed while Kirk's only has $37 million guaranteed and if he (Kirk) doesn't perform to the level they expect - it's basically a 2 year deal.  In addition, prior to last year, Kupp wasn't in the conversation for best WR in the league, he was the 2nd WR on the team to Robert Woods.  He exploded last year having one of the best WR seasons in recent history.  

If you compare Kupp's stats for the year before last season, with Kirk's stats from last year - they are similar enough to hope for a jump in Kirk's performance (maybe not to the level that Kupp jumped to, but still....):

                   Targets    Recpt    Catch %    Yards    Avg/Catch    TD
Kupp (2020)    124          92        74.2         974          10.6         3
Kirk  (2021)     103          77        74.8         982          12.8         5

Not identical numbers, but close enough to think that as the #1 WR here (he had DeAndre Hopkins ahead of him in AZ), that we could see a significant jump in his performance and his numbers.

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Kupp - 3 years $80 million (145 receptioons  -1947 yards - 16 tds)
Kirk - 4 years $84 million  (77 - receptions - 982 yards - 5 tds)

I'd take Kupp any day under their comparative contracts.

Just to be accurate, Kirk's contract is 4 years, 72 million.  It also includes an extra 3 million per year in incentives based on receptions and yards.  

His contract makes him currently the 14th highest paid WR.  In a year or two, he won't even be in the top 25.

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If you compare Kupp's stats for the year before last season, with Kirk's stats from last year - they are similar enough to hope for a jump in Kirk's performance (maybe not to the level that Kupp jumped to, but still....):

Perhaps if Trevors QB play goes from Goffesque to Staffordesque.

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Kupp - 3 years $80 million (145 receptioons  -1947 yards - 16 tds)
Kirk - 4 years $84 million  (77 - receptions - 982 yards - 5 tds)

I'd take Kupp any day under their comparative contracts.

Just to be accurate, Kirk's contract is 4 years, 72 million.  It also includes an extra 3 million per year in incentives based on receptions and yards.  

His contract makes him currently the 14th highest paid WR.  In a year or two, he won't even be in the top 25.

Kirk's contract could easily end up being 2 years, 37 million

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Just to be accurate, Kirk's contract is 4 years, 72 million.  It also includes an extra 3 million per year in incentives based on receptions and yards.  

His contract makes him currently the 14th highest paid WR.  In a year or two, he won't even be in the top 25.

Kirk's contract could easily end up being 2 years, 37 million

I honestly hope not.  That would give me some confidence that the FO did a good job of evaluating his potential.

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Kirk's contract could easily end up being 2 years, 37 million

I honestly hope not.  That would give me some confidence that the FO did a good job of evaluating his potential.

I hope not as well. 

I expect he'll be productive with Trevor and Pederson. I'm more confident he'll earn his keep than flame out. 
Of course we'll never hear the end of the moaning over his contract either way. 

Having watched all of Kirk's targets from last year, I think deep passes to Kirk running seam routes from the slot will go a long way to boosting his stats and moving chains for the team. It stood out in his tape.  (reports from OTAs are that Trevor is already drilling that route with Kirk and the TEs , and looking great doing it) Alternately, Kirk and Zay Jones are both really good at finding the soft spots in zone coverage and getting the easy dink and dunk yardage that way as well.


Jags Fans: We literally have NOBODY at receiver!! We have tons of cap space !!! SIGN SOMEONE!!!!!

*Jaguars sign good receiver*

Jags Fans: We paid HOW MUCH?!?!?!?!?

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Kupp - 3 years $80 million (145 receptioons  -1947 yards - 16 tds)
Kirk - 4 years $84 million  (77 - receptions - 982 yards - 5 tds)

I'd take Kupp any day under their comparative contracts.

Well to be fair, Kupp's contract has $75 million guaranteed while Kirk's only has $37 million guaranteed and if he (Kirk) doesn't perform to the level they expect - it's basically a 2 year deal.  In addition, prior to last year, Kupp wasn't in the conversation for best WR in the league, he was the 2nd WR on the team to Robert Woods.  He exploded last year having one of the best WR seasons in recent history.  

If you compare Kupp's stats for the year before last season, with Kirk's stats from last year - they are similar enough to hope for a jump in Kirk's performance (maybe not to the level that Kupp jumped to, but still....):

                   Targets    Recpt    Catch %    Yards    Avg/Catch    TD
Kupp (2020)    124          92        74.2         974          10.6         3
Kirk  (2021)     103          77        74.8         982          12.8         5

Not identical numbers, but close enough to think that as the #1 WR here (he had DeAndre Hopkins ahead of him in AZ), that we could see a significant jump in his performance and his numbers.

Great Post !!!

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I honestly hope not.  That would give me some confidence that the FO did a good job of evaluating his potential.

I hope not as well. 

I expect he'll be productive with Trevor and Pederson. I'm more confident he'll earn his keep than flame out. 
Of course we'll never hear the end of the moaning over his contract either way. 

Having watched all of Kirk's targets from last year, I think deep passes to Kirk running seam routes from the slot will go a long way to boosting his stats and moving chains for the team. It stood out in his tape.  (reports from OTAs are that Trevor is already drilling that route with Kirk and the TEs , and looking great doing it) Alternately, Kirk and Zay Jones are both really good at finding the soft spots in zone coverage and getting the easy dink and dunk yardage that way as well.


Jags Fans:  We literally have NOBODY at receiver!! We have tons of cap space !!! SIGN SOMEONE!!!!!

*Jaguars sign good receiver*

Jags Fans:  We paid HOW MUCH?!?!?!?!?

Did we gripe a lot about how much we paid for Kirk?  Maybe I just didn't pay much attention because complaining about over-spending in unrestricted free-agency is just complaining for the sake of complaining.
It felt like a lot of whining came from national sources because we broke the market for free agent wideouts.  I kind of enjoyed that

Personally, my biggest problem with what we paid Kirk was the fact that it looked like we could have had Chark for about $12mil for 1 year.  I would have liked the Kirk signing better if we had Chark too.
Hopefully Kirk finds a rhythm with Trevor and has a career year.  We're due for something like that.  I'll be sweating my nards off in the stands either way, but I suuurrre hope I get to enjoy some Sundays this year.

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I hope not as well. 

I expect he'll be productive with Trevor and Pederson. I'm more confident he'll earn his keep than flame out. 
Of course we'll never hear the end of the moaning over his contract either way. 

Having watched all of Kirk's targets from last year, I think deep passes to Kirk running seam routes from the slot will go a long way to boosting his stats and moving chains for the team. It stood out in his tape.  (reports from OTAs are that Trevor is already drilling that route with Kirk and the TEs , and looking great doing it) Alternately, Kirk and Zay Jones are both really good at finding the soft spots in zone coverage and getting the easy dink and dunk yardage that way as well.


Jags Fans:  We literally have NOBODY at receiver!! We have tons of cap space !!! SIGN SOMEONE!!!!!

*Jaguars sign good receiver*

Jags Fans:  We paid HOW MUCH?!?!?!?!?

Did we gripe a lot about how much we paid for Kirk?  Maybe I just didn't pay much attention because complaining about over-spending in unrestricted free-agency is just complaining for the sake of complaining.
It felt like a lot of whining came from national sources because we broke the market for free agent wideouts.  I kind of enjoyed that

Personally, my biggest problem with what we paid Kirk was the fact that it looked like we could have had Chark for about $12mil for 1 year.  I would have liked the Kirk signing better if we had Chark too.
Hopefully Kirk finds a rhythm with Trevor and has a career year.  We're due for something like that.  I'll be sweating my nards off in the stands either way, but I suuurrre hope I get to enjoy some Sundays this year.

I don't disagree with any of this, but have two points:

I don't think we broke the market at all. I think that is a crap narrative coming from one front office guy supposedly complaining to a writer who desperately needed something to write about. 

If a front office is incapable of negotiating a fair deal with a top tier receiver - and they blame it on a guy we gave only 50% guaranteed money to with a two year out,  they just suck at negotiating. Tyreek Hill didn't get paid his number because of Christian freaking Kirk. Not buying that.

Did we push up the second tier receiver threshold a bit by paying him around 18 or 19 per year for 2 years? 
Sure. A little. But only for those doing similarly structured deals. 
I just don't think it's fair or accurate to say that a guy on an incentive laden 2 year deal with the POSSIBILITY for it to become a 4 year payday is a worthy measuring stick. Seems like weak sauce. 
If there's a receiver on the market rated exactly like Kirk and a team gave him a 4 year deal with no out clause, with more guaranteed $ percentage and fewer incentives required, they absolutely would NOT have to match Kirks per year number on his 1st 2 years.

Chark wanted out. (IMO) The Meyer Error ruined him on Jacksonville. He was ready for a change. 
I don''t know what this regime offered him, but I can't imagine they wouldn't match that sum the Lions mustered. 
I'm very disappointed we didn't find a way to keep him around.

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Kirk definitely set the WR market. The way Ballke did the contract is much better than when originally seen the numbers. After all these guys that has gotten big deals this off season makes the Kirk contract much better. I say he goes for 1080 yards this season

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Kirk definitely set the WR market.  The way Ballke did the contract is much better than when originally seen the numbers.  After all these guys that has gotten big deals this off season makes the Kirk contract much better.  I say he goes for 1080 yards this season

The only market he set or inflated was the "second tier receiver on a short term deal" market. 

You think the dolphins paid Tyreek Hill 72 mil guaranteed with 120 mil potential earnings and 52 mil UP FRONT, because Kirk got $37 mil guaranteed? 

Bruh, it's apples and oranges. Both the players, and the terms of the contracts. One did not influence the other.

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Kirk definitely set the WR market.  The way Ballke did the contract is much better than when originally seen the numbers.  After all these guys that has gotten big deals this off season makes the Kirk contract much better.  I say he goes for 1080 yards this season

The only market he set or inflated was the "second tier receiver on a short term deal" market. 

You think the dolphins paid Tyreek Hill 72 mil guaranteed with 120 mil potential earnings and 52 mil UP FRONT, because Kirk got $37 mil guaranteed? 

Bruh, it's apples and oranges. Both the players, and the terms of the contracts. One did not influence the other.

The only reason?  No.  

A huge reason?  Absolutely.  When Hill, Adams, Diggs, Kupp, Brown etc. seen what Kirk got their eyes lit up.

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The only market he set or inflated was the "second tier receiver on a short term deal" market. 

You think the dolphins paid Tyreek Hill 72 mil guaranteed with 120 mil potential earnings and 52 mil UP FRONT, because Kirk got $37 mil guaranteed? 

Bruh, it's apples and oranges. Both the players, and the terms of the contracts. One did not influence the other.

The only reason?  No.  

A huge reason?  Absolutely.  When Hill, Adams, Diggs, Kupp, Brown etc. seen what Kirk got their eyes lit up.

Adams was wanting 30m per year long before the Kirk deal was ever a thought.

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The only market he set or inflated was the "second tier receiver on a short term deal" market. 

You think the dolphins paid Tyreek Hill 72 mil guaranteed with 120 mil potential earnings and 52 mil UP FRONT, because Kirk got $37 mil guaranteed? 

Bruh, it's apples and oranges. Both the players, and the terms of the contracts. One did not influence the other.

The only reason?  No.  

A huge reason?  Absolutely.  When Hill, Adams, Diggs, Kupp, Brown etc. seen what Kirk got their eyes lit up.

Meh

Their eyes can light up all they want. Doesn't mean they have much traction when negotiating against Kirk's deal structure which is incredibly team friendly. Those players did not sign team friendly deals like Kirk. They really don't compare. 

More importantly - if so many are hell-bent on insisting that the Jags/Kirk deal shifted the market - why are they not critical of the Mike Williams deal that happened A WEEK PRIOR to the Kirk signing??

Williams got 40 million guaranteed with 28 million up front at signing. 
Kirk got 37 million guaranteed with 22.5 mil up front. 

I'm just not buying it. Kirk got paid more than receivers with his production tend to get paid. He also was the best thing a desperate team could find in free agency in a year they had tons of cap space. 
This kind of thing happens every free agency with some rebuilding team overpaying for a need while they had cap room. 
It just rarely turns out that two or three talking heads single it out as a "market influencing deal" and get ppl up in arms about it. 

The market is what it is. Teams and agents negotiate. An outlier deal has less influence than folks are letting on. 
If I was in negotiation with a top tier WR agent that wanted 100mil with 65 guaranteed and no out clause and they were citing the Kirk deal as precedent, I'd say "Sure - we'll just put in a two year out clause and make it 50 mil guaranteed if you like Kirk's deal so much."  If GMs are letting agents bully them on price, that is their own failure. Not the Jaguars shifting the market. 
Those teams wanted those receivers and were willing to pay what they paid for them. 

You can't just compare straight up annual base salaries without weighing those numbers against deal structure. 
It's a major factor.

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Did we gripe a lot about how much we paid for Kirk?  Maybe I just didn't pay much attention because complaining about over-spending in unrestricted free-agency is just complaining for the sake of complaining.
It felt like a lot of whining came from national sources because we broke the market for free agent wideouts.  I kind of enjoyed that

Personally, my biggest problem with what we paid Kirk was the fact that it looked like we could have had Chark for about $12mil for 1 year.  I would have liked the Kirk signing better if we had Chark too.
Hopefully Kirk finds a rhythm with Trevor and has a career year.  We're due for something like that.  I'll be sweating my nards off in the stands either way, but I suuurrre hope I get to enjoy some Sundays this year.

I don't disagree with any of this, but have two points:

I don't think we broke the market at all. I think that is a crap narrative coming from one front office guy supposedly complaining to a writer who desperately needed something to write about. 

If a front office is incapable of negotiating a fair deal with a top tier receiver - and they blame it on a guy we gave only 50% guaranteed money to with a two year out,  they just suck at negotiating. Tyreek Hill didn't get paid his number because of Christian freaking Kirk. Not buying that.

Did we push up the second tier receiver threshold a bit by paying him around 18 or 19 per year for 2 years? 
Sure. A little. But only for those doing similarly structured deals. 
I just don't think it's fair or accurate to say that a guy on an incentive laden 2 year deal with the POSSIBILITY for it to become a 4 year payday is a worthy measuring stick. Seems like weak sauce. 
If there's a receiver on the market rated exactly like Kirk and a team gave him a 4 year deal with no out clause, with more guaranteed $ percentage and fewer incentives required, they absolutely would NOT have to match Kirks per year number on his 1st 2 years.

Chark wanted out. (IMO) The Meyer Error ruined him on Jacksonville. He was ready for a change. 
I don''t know what this regime offered him, but I can't imagine they wouldn't match that sum the Lions mustered. 
I'm very disappointed we didn't find a way to keep him around.

I know we've had this conversation before, but I want to remain on record as disagreeing.  Chark never said he wanted out and I see little to no evidence to suggest that he did.  Why would he?

Urban Meyer?  He's no longer the coach.

Trent Baalke?  If the Jaguars hypothetically outbid every other NFL team as you theorize, I find it hard to believe Chark would be upset at Baalke.

To play for a winner?  He signed with the 3-13-1 Detroit Lions.  

He didn't like Trevor Lawrence?  He was seen working out with Lawrence just days before signing with Detroit.  It also suggests that he was open to returning to the Jaguars.

He just wanted to live in Detroit?  Seems unlikely for someone who was born in the south, always lived in the south and chose to go to college in the south.  


There's also no evidence that the Jaguars offered him a better deal.  Agents make a living based upon their reputation for getting their clients the best deals.  If Chark got a better deal from a team other than Detroit, his agent would want the whole world to know.  He's not going to keep it a secret.  While I personally think Chark would have been a good value, it is not that hard to imagine the Jaguars didn't offer more considering that 30 other NFL teams also did not offer more.  I'm not sure if it was his injury history or what, but NFL teams clearly didn't value Chark as much as some of us fans.

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The only reason?  No.  

A huge reason?  Absolutely.  When Hill, Adams, Diggs, Kupp, Brown etc. seen what Kirk got their eyes lit up.

Adams was wanting 30m per year long before the Kirk deal was ever a thought.

Of course he did. Yawn wanted 20mil per year

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