I would first need to understand what those grading scales mean.  I personally have never set up a big board so it's easy for me to say this here and now but I have a hard time believing I would rate someone as precise as a 91.1.  In addition I don't know what the gap is between that WR 91.1 and CB 89.9.  When my original board was created was there only one player (that SS at 91.0) in between those two or were there 20 players in between?  It's hard for me to understand the gap in talent if I don't know the gap in those values.  If I was sticking with precise numbers, I would probably do the same for my team needs as well.  And in that case would do some simple math to know my pure value board and my adjusted board by accounting for need.  

To play along in your example though without knowing the answers to those questions I posed and not knowing the gap in need, I could see myself leaning towards the corner.  If you told me OT, DE, and CB were nearly interchangeable in terms of how desperate the need is, TE and DT were the next level of need (have solid starters, need some young depth, but could use a superstar if you came across one), and then everything else was just a nice to have, I think I would definitely go towards CB.  If CB was actually in that second tier of need like it probably is this year for the Jags, then I'd want to know what the WR and SS situations are.  But I'd still lean CB due to the premium position.

Again having never done this, but thinking through it, if I managed a draft process I dont think Id use a number scheme like that.  I'd probably group players into tiers.  The amount in each tier would change with each year obviously, but on average every draft it feels like there are 1-5 super elite prospects.  And then you have a second tier of elite players from lets say 5-15.  And then a bigger tier from maybe 16-30.  And so on and so on.  I'd probably then rank the team needs and probably classify what the need is (do I have starters but no depth, do we have depth and starters but no one elite, do I have no front line starters but lots of good backups, etc...).  So lets say it's this draft and our Jags pick in the late first is on the clock.  Realistically all the guys from super elite Tier 1 are gone, but there is still one player from Tier 2.  It's a CB.  I wouldn't rank that as our biggest need as Campbell is becoming really good and Williams played much better once outside.  However we don't have a lot of depth and nickel is basically like a starting position these days.  Plus it is a premium position.  So I would probably take that CB.  However if that one person from Tier 2 was a 4-3 MLB, I'd probably then look at my Tier 3 players and see which players from biggest need are there.  Pre-draft, I could also see within each of the tiers ordering guys based on certain qualities or perhaps needs so you have an idea of who the top priority are in an example such as that.  I would probably also flag guys for certain things such as injury.  Might have a guy that would be Tier 2 when healthy but is currently in Tier 4 due to health issues and would flag him as such.

That is a rough sketch of how I would handle the draft.  Early in the draft you are focusing on both value and need but the later you get in the draft, I think value naturally comes into play more.  You're sitting there in round 5 and some guy from your 4th tier is still there.  Even if not a position of huge need, at some point you can't pass up that value.  As part of the draft preparation you discuss a number of different scenarios and mock out how you think things will play.  So when the time comes you know how to execute and try to maximize value while also addressing needs.  I know Vic Ketchman used to say he'd rank everyone 1-400 and would just pick whoever was at the top and that the draft would be a pretty boring day.  That is easy but I'd argue doesnt necessarily maximize value and you could end up using valuable resources in areas where you shouldn't.

Yeah - everyone seems to be focusing this hypothetical on the Jags and getting completely lost in the minutiae of the grading process.

The graphic posted and question asked had nothing to do with any of that and does not apply to the Jags or any specific team.

• GMs/FOs have varying methods of grading players and assembling big boards.

• The grading "system" in the example is arbitrary.

It's just an illustration of how teams reach down for similarly graded players to fill needs instead of taking the top player on their board. And they often don't need to reach far - thus still attaining good value. When they DO reach too far, the trouble begins. 
The graphic is just illustrating this very basic concept.

I don't get the hand wringing either.  Pretty sure my signature is still a draft comment from having these discussions way back when Vic was around.  Ultimately the methodology of choosing a draft pick is kind of irrelevant as most teams arent dumb enough to draft someone they have rated as a 6th rounder somewhere in the 2nd because it happens to be the best player at some position of greatest need.  The ultimate decider of how good a team is at drafting is how well they scout.  BAP, need, common sense, etc... it is all meaningless compared to an ability to judge talent (not to mention an ability to develop guys once here).  If your big board is lousy, you may as well just be throwing darts at that point.

---

________________________________________________
Scouting well is all that matters.  Draft philosophy is all fluff.

Yeah - everyone seems to be focusing this hypothetical on the Jags and getting completely lost in the minutiae of the grading process.

The graphic posted and question asked had nothing to do with any of that and does not apply to the Jags or any specific team.

• GMs/FOs have varying methods of grading players and assembling big boards.

• The grading "system" in the example is arbitrary.

It's just an illustration of how teams reach down for similarly graded players to fill needs instead of taking the top player on their board. And they often don't need to reach far - thus still attaining good value. When they DO reach too far, the trouble begins. 
The graphic is just illustrating this very basic concept.

I don't get the hand wringing either.  Pretty sure my signature is still a draft comment from having these discussions way back when Vic was around.  Ultimately the methodology of choosing a draft pick is kind of irrelevant as most teams arent dumb enough to draft someone they have rated as a 6th rounder somewhere in the 2nd because it happens to be the best player at some position of greatest need.  The ultimate decider of how good a team is at drafting is how well they scout.  BAP, need, common sense, etc... it is all meaningless compared to an ability to judge talent (not to mention an ability to develop guys once here).  If your big board is lousy, you may as well just be throwing darts at that point.

Yes, that's still your sig. 

I agree with the big board order vs ability to scout and then develop talent statements. 

Teams will inevitably grade the wrong guys too high and others too low every year in addition to finding other creative ways to screw up their draft. 

While the top three or four guys we take this April will be of vital importance at some point for the Jags sooner or later, what happens with the players we selected last April may play an even bigger role. 
We truly need to see progress from Walker, Lloyd and Fornter. There's your parenthetical development statement clearly illustrated close to home. 

For my part, the hand wringing on philosophy is just sort of a Spring time ritual.  When all the orthodox BAP purists cry foul the minute anyone suggests taking a player you need even if you rate him slightly lower than a guy you don't need, I want to hear why.
 I guess I get a kick out of hearing the justification arguments for ignoring value to draft redundant talent. LOL

I'll try not to antagonize those fine folks who have convictions I don't share.

---

I assume that the need is short-term/coming season, so we are not looking down the road.
Assume the needs are listed an order of priority that considers immediacy.
It would also be helpful to know the stats of what is currently on the roster. How much of an improvement would ex. the CB add to that room compared to the alternatives?
Assume the needs are listed in an order of priority that considers this as well. I know I would consider this when listing my needs. 

My gut instinct is to go with the OT, but I would feel better about it if I felt certain that the pick would be an upgrade. I would also consider the CB because it appears to add more value. TE would only be a choice if the gap in need between CB and TE is very narrow and there is a better fit between TE prospect and the team’s needed intangibles. Selecting a deep threat CB if the team need someone in the slot makes little sense, or if the TE prospect is a blocking TE and team needs a receiving TE. Having a bit more info on how much each position on the board would improve the respective room could make for a different decision. I can understand how such details can affect the decision here. Let's just assume the players listed all suit your needs - and they wouldn't be listed as needs if a second rounder didn't appear to be an upgrade.

Finally, I am still trying to figure out these grades. Are there any trends within the difference in grades between each position? I assume that the idea is to rate every player according to their performance, but are the grades comparable across positions? It seems reasonable to use grades to compare players at the same position, but it seems to me that skill positions often get a higher grade than the others.
Assume these grades are putting players on an even playing field - with positional value already factored in. These grades would represent the player's anticipated value as a pro player based on all scouting information gathered and analyzed. 

Answering in red above

Thanks, I still think I would go with OT because of the need.

---

Let's take it one step at a time, starting with what I think should be common ground.  Two hypotheticals:

Scenario #1

You can choose between two players:

Player A:  His value is rated at 90.0.  However, he plays at a position where the team already had a 95.  As such, he's likely to be sitting the bench as a backup unless an injury happens.

Player B:  His value is also rated at 90.0.  However, he plays at a position where we have a 47.  As such, he's likely to start every game.

Are we all in agreement that Player B would help us win more games?  

Scenario #2:

You can choose between two players:

Player X:  His value is rated at 90.0.  He plays at a position where the team already has 88.  As such, he'll start, but would only be a very minimal upgrade over a player already on the team.

Player Y:  His value is also rated at 90.0.  However, he plays at a position where we have a 47.  As such, he'll start, and would be a huge upgrade over our other alternative at the position.

Are we all in agreement that Player Y would help us win more games?

---

Wagner released, Ramsey to be traded. We need to offer 24 for that number 99 guy if he says he would want to play for a contending team like the Jags. Would put this defense to the next level and championship level

---

Wagner released, Ramsey to be traded.  We need to offer 24 for that number 99 guy if he says he would want to play for a contending team like the Jags.  Would put this defense to the next level and championship level

You think it would only take pick 24? For the best DT of all time who is still unblockable?

It’s not happening but it’s fun to think about.

---

Wagner released, Ramsey to be traded.  We need to offer 24 for that number 99 guy if he says he would want to play for a contending team like the Jags.  Would put this defense to the next level and championship level

You think it would only take pick 24? For the best DT of all time who is still unblockable?

It’s not happening but it’s fun to think about.

He's about to be 32 in a couple months.  They're not getting 2 1sts.  It might take 24 and a 4th round pick, regardless if it's 24 and a 4th or a 5th I'd still probably do it.  It would be like when CC came here although CC was a little younger.  I think with Allen and a young Walker coming on Jax would be a perfect spot for us and AD.

---

Wagner released, Ramsey to be traded.  We need to offer 24 for that number 99 guy if he says he would want to play for a contending team like the Jags.  Would put this defense to the next level and championship level

You think it would only take pick 24? For the best DT of all time who is still unblockable?

It’s not happening but it’s fun to think about.

Since you think it will take much more than a 1st for a 32 yr old AD, what donyou think it takes to get him?   We will likely find out soon

---

https://jaguarswire.usatoday.com/2023/02...eam-needs/

---

https://jaguarswire.usatoday.com/2023/02...eam-needs/

I get his point. To an extent. My concern is that, what are you passing up on potentially there at 24 and 56 if you're leaning towards defense? 

Still need to see what happens with Evan Engram. Still need to see what happens with JaWaan Taylor. Still have concerns at LT with Cam Robinson coming back from an injury, Bartch coming back from an injury and Scherff who historically cannot hold up physically and we saw his play drop a bit after he sustained an injury that he was thankfully able to play through. 

Drafting an edge rusher and cornerback on day one and day two can come back and bite this team in the [BLEEP] big time if Lawrence is dinged up because somebody over at LT whiffed his assignment or somebody along the interior got bent backwards and fell into Lawrence's knee or legs. We already had our first real "OH [BLEEP]" moment with Lawrence last year in Detroit. All of our butthole's puckered on that play where his ankle/foot area bent awkwardly on him. 

We got lucky there. I just don't want to watch this team fall short in 2023 because they [BLEEP] up like this team did back in 2007 going into 2008. Everybody thought that team was just one or two players away on defense from making a serious run again and they placed all their eggs in one basket by drafting Harvey and Groves. They both sucked. Just like we did with Caldwell when he has passed on Wirfs and Jefferson in favor of guys like Henderson and Chaisson just to backfill needs. 

I know we looked and player better offensively down the stretch last year but Lawrence still had to get the ball in and out of his hands quickly. The play calls were probably dictated by the lack of consistency along the line. Even PFF, when you go to do the mock up's. Two of our three biggest needs they have listed are at guard and center. This, again, is without knowing what's fixing to happen with Taylor at right tackle. 

The defense got it's due last off season as well. That's something that needs to be factored in heavily this off season. The majority of the cap space and draft picks were allocated towards bolstering the front seven and secondary already.

---

"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

https://jaguarswire.usatoday.com/2023/02...eam-needs/

He's not wrong, the Defense cost us more games than the Offense did.

Pass rush and CB have to be very in play for those first three picks.

Pretty sure it was DJ who said this is the best TE class hes seen in the last 10 years as well.

I think we could easily see something along these lines during the draft.

1 - Pass Rush
2 - CB
3 - TE
4 - Swing OT or WR
4 - WR or Swing OT

A LG would be acquired in FA to compete with Bartch and Engram would obviously be re-signed. Taylor walks and we get a comp pick for him next year.

---

https://jaguarswire.usatoday.com/2023/02...eam-needs/

He's not wrong, the Defense cost us more games than the Offense did.

Pass rush and CB have to be very in play for those first three picks.

Pretty sure it was DJ who said this is the best TE class hes seen in the last 10 years as well.

I think we could easily see something along these lines during the draft.

1 - Pass Rush
2 - CB
3 - TE
4 - Swing OT or WR
4 - WR or Swing OT

A LG would be acquired in FA to compete with Bartch and Engram would obviously be re-signed. Taylor walks and we get a comp pick for him next year.

I could easily see that order too.

I’m just not sure at all how this draft is going to fall. It’s a really hard one to get a gauge on. I’m curious how many 1st round grades most scouts and analysts would give for this draft.

---

https://jaguarswire.usatoday.com/2023/02...nfl-draft/

---

https://jaguarswire.usatoday.com/2023/02...nfl-draft/

Would be right in line for that 4th round developmental Swing OT, as well as more competition and likely replacement at Guard.

---

How would we feel about Antonio Johnson out of Texas A&M for pick 24?

Versatile safety who can also play in the slot.

---

How would we feel about Antonio Johnson out of Texas A&M for pick 24?

Versatile safety who can also play in the slot.

Depends on whether or not JaWaan Taylor is resigned or if a better player is there at left guard. He's not a bad prospect. I just think if we're looking for more versatility defensively we can get a decent player like that later on. 

JL Skinner is a good option to have in RD3 potentially. Riley Moss, Trey Dean III in RD4. My concern is that we're potentially going into 2023 with a leaky offensive line and we'll be screaming our heads off like the Bengals fanbase has done now over the last two years for Joe Burrow's sake. 

Cam Robinson's inability to stay healthy, and, even when healthy he's been suspect at times in protection. Ben Bartch and Tyler Shatley I don't think are the answer at left guard. Luke Fortner has to get stronger over these next few months at Center. 

Brandon Scherff is a stop gap player with a history of injuries at right guard. Again, Taylor? Is he staying or going? If he's going that leaves you with Walker Little at RT which means we will ultimately need a swing tackle to help out if either starter goes down.

---

"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

How would we feel about Antonio Johnson out of Texas A&M for pick 24?

Versatile safety who can also play in the slot.

Depends on whether or not JaWaan Taylor is resigned or if a better player is there at left guard. He's not a bad prospect. I just think if we're looking for more versatility defensively we can get a decent player like that later on. 

JL Skinner is a good option to have in RD3 potentially. Riley Moss, Trey Dean III in RD4. My concern is that we're potentially going into 2023 with a leaky offensive line and we'll be screaming our heads off like the Bengals fanbase has done now over the last two years for Joe Burrow's sake. 

Cam Robinson's inability to stay healthy, and, even when healthy he's been suspect at times in protection. Ben Bartch and Tyler Shatley I don't think are the answer at left guard. Luke Fortner has to get stronger over these next few months at Center. 

Brandon Scherff is a stop gap player with a history of injuries at right guard. Again, Taylor? Is he staying or going? If he's going that leaves you with Walker Little at RT which means we will ultimately need a swing tackle to help out if either starter goes down.

Oh I totally agree with what you're saying. A lot of what we do at 24 depends on what happens in FA. I think it'll be pretty evident on what the Jags will do once we see their moves in FA.

If I had to guess, Torrence is VERY high on their list.

I just like Johnsons versatility and I think he will end up being a very good safety.

---

Depends on whether or not JaWaan Taylor is resigned or if a better player is there at left guard. He's not a bad prospect. I just think if we're looking for more versatility defensively we can get a decent player like that later on. 

JL Skinner is a good option to have in RD3 potentially. Riley Moss, Trey Dean III in RD4. My concern is that we're potentially going into 2023 with a leaky offensive line and we'll be screaming our heads off like the Bengals fanbase has done now over the last two years for Joe Burrow's sake. 

Cam Robinson's inability to stay healthy, and, even when healthy he's been suspect at times in protection. Ben Bartch and Tyler Shatley I don't think are the answer at left guard. Luke Fortner has to get stronger over these next few months at Center. 

Brandon Scherff is a stop gap player with a history of injuries at right guard. Again, Taylor? Is he staying or going? If he's going that leaves you with Walker Little at RT which means we will ultimately need a swing tackle to help out if either starter goes down.

Oh I totally agree with what you're saying. A lot of what we do at 24 depends on what happens in FA. I think it'll be pretty evident on what the Jags will do once we see their moves in FA.

If I had to guess, Torrence is VERY high on their list.

I just like Johnsons versatility and I think he will end up being a very good safety.

I agree about the free agency portion. Won't really know for sure on how they'll go direction wise until things start really moving going into next week. 

Hays Carlyon, local guy here, he's gone on record stating he thinks Nolan Smith would be our guy if he's there at twenty-four. Which I find interesting. I am a Bulldogs fan. With that said?

Last year I was saying Jordan Davis > Travon Walker. I still pretty much feel the same way at the moment about that. 

But, Nolan Smith? I don't like the pick. I honestly hope he's NOT the pick. He's been oft injured during his tenure with the Bulldogs and despite how good he might look running around in shorts at the combine? It never really showed up on the football field. 

Matter of fact, Georgia won plenty of big games without him. If we're eyeing a pass rusher. TAKE the pass rusher. Tyree Wilson, Andre Carter, Trenton Simpson, Will McDonald, Lukas Van Ness & Felix Anudike-Uzomah are better prospects there IMHO. 

Taking a guy that can't stay healthy and never really hit his stride at Georgia statistically speaking would be frustrating to see.

---

"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

In this mock draft, Jalen Carter falls to #17 after the arrest warrant. Should and could the Jags trade up to 17 and draft him?

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news...r-jackson/

---

Our drafts are all over the place.  Nobody knows what we're going to do.  These writers are just throwing poo on the wall to see what sticks.

On an unrelated note...I hope the Colts do trade up and take Richardson number one.  What an enormous gaffe that would be.

---

In this mock draft, Jalen Carter falls to #17 after the arrest warrant.  Should and could the Jags trade up to 17 and draft him? 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news...r-jackson/

Duncan over Torrence, Joey Porter, and Myles Murphy is very interesting.

---