Seems to be a set in stone fact at this point that handsome squidward will be our QB this upcoming season. So statistically what would you consider a succesful rookie campaign?

Personally, All I really want out of his first year is a sub-double digit INT total. Give me 25 TD-7 INTs and i'll feel inspired. As far as w/l record, too much left to be decided on the team to even think about that right now.. but hoping for 7+ wins.

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Coupled with an incoming HC with no NFL experience, it’s difficult to nail down. Lawrence is gifted so he will produce, but how will the whole package come together? It’s going to be THE story to watch in the league this season.

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Coupled with an incoming HC with no NFL experience, it’s difficult to nail down. Lawrence is gifted so he will produce, but how will the whole package come together? It’s going to be THE story to watch in the league this season.

It certainly will be interesting. Just the bad taste of Gabbert/Bortles is still in my mouth and it's got me nervous. I know great QBs often have horrible rookie seasons, but I just hope it's clear early on that he's that dude everyone thinks he is.

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Yeah, see above. I just posted this a few minutes ago

My bad. I saw your post but didn't put two and two together.

Just emphasizing the awfulness of this combo lol

Seems to be a set in stone fact at this point that handsome squidward will be our QB this upcoming season. So statistically what would you consider a succesful rookie campaign?

Personally, All I really want out of his first year is a sub-double digit INT total. Give me 25 TD-7 INTs and i'll feel inspired. As far as w/l record, too much left to be decided on the team to even think about that right now.. but hoping for 7+ wins.

This would be great in my opinion for a rookie season. Biggest hope for me is we protect him and he stays upright and finishes the season with no ACL or other major injury.

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It's not about his first season...

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Justin Herberts stat line CMP% 66.6% Yards 4,336 TDs 31 Ints 10 Rating 98.3

Hoping to see it look about like this.

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In Dougie I Trust!

Justin Herberts stat line CMP% 66.6% Yards 4,336 TDs 31 Ints 10 Rating 98.3

Hoping to see it look about like this.

I’ll take 32/9 then. Perhaps 4400 yards & 67 percent.

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Seems to be a set in stone fact at this point that handsome squidward will be our QB this upcoming season. So statistically what would you consider a succesful rookie campaign?

Personally, All I really want out of his first year is a sub-double digit INT total. Give me 25 TD-7 INTs and i'll feel inspired. As far as w/l record, too much left to be decided on the team to even think about that right now.. but hoping for 7+ wins.

Prepare to be disappointed. If he gets 16 starts (he dang sure ought to), he's gonna get caught in some rookie mistakes and make bad throws.

Success will be when his best game comes against the tacks. I'd like to see at least one game with a come from behind win, would be great to preview a team that can will itself to victory.

I'm not as concerned with the W-L this year, there's a lot of transition. Success will be when the rest of the team looks to him for leadership. When guys but their butt and give extra effort to keep a drive going. Success will be making average guys look like hidden gems.

More than anything, I want to see better play late in the season once the game starts slowing down for him. I want to see progression more than I worry about record or stats that may have skewed with early lessons learned.

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Justin Herberts stat line CMP% 66.6% Yards 4,336 TDs 31 Ints 10 Rating 98.3

Hoping to see it look about like this.

I’ll take 32/9 then. Perhaps 4400 yards & 67 percent.

So the best year ever for a rookie QB ever you will take?  I think you should raise the bar a little

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A lot depends on the strength of the line. If they can keep him UPRIGHT and in the pocket, he has the awareness and the arm to make the throws and pick up the yards. ABSOLUTE FLOOR: I see a season like Minshew's rookie season: Around 3200 yards 25/7. Best case ceiling? Around 4000 yards close to 30 TDs and 10/12 INTS.

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“Motivation alone is not enough.  If you have an idiot and you motivate him,now you have a motivated idiot.” Jim Rohn

 

It's not about numbers for me. I just want him to pass the eye test and show glimpses of why he is one of the best QB prospects ever. I think he will have a good rookie season but year 2 I think he breaks out and becomes a top 5 QB in the league

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Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Herbert, and Lawrence I think will be the top 5 QBs for the next 15 years after Brady and Rodgers retire

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Seems to be a set in stone fact at this point that handsome squidward will be our QB this upcoming season. So statistically what would you consider a succesful rookie campaign?

Personally, All I really want out of his first year is a sub-double digit INT total. Give me 25 TD-7 INTs and i'll feel inspired. As far as w/l record, too much left to be decided on the team to even think about that right now.. but hoping for 7+ wins.

I'm glad you started this thread.

I've been thinking of starting a thread about expectations for Trevor Lawrence, but I was going to post it later, but since you did, I'll gladly join.

We disagree about the INT total.  It's not as if I would be disappointed with a single digit INT total.  To the contrary, I'd be thrilled with that kind of output over a full season for Lawrence.  I'm just not sure if that is a reasonable expectation for a rookie, even if that rookie is TL.

Peyton Manning threw some 28 INTs as a rookie.  Tom Brady threw 12 INTs this year, and he has a much better team around him than we do.  Justin Harrell, a rookie, managed to throw only ten, so it's theoretically possible, but given the holes on the OL and the lack of depth/talent at WR and TE here, I don't think a single digit INT total over a complete season in his rookie year is realistic. 

The ideal?  Yes.  But expecting that from TL his rookie year on this team is not realistic.

It will be great to revisit this after the draft when the team will be closr to fully stocked for the year.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

It's not about numbers for me.  I just want him to pass the eye test and show glimpses of why he is one of the best QB prospects ever.  I think he will have a good rookie season but year 2 I think he breaks out and becomes a top 5 QB in the league

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Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Herbert, and Lawrence I think will be the top 5 QBs for the next 15 years after Brady and Rodgers retire

I think this is where I am.  But I will add I want to see how durable he is...I want to see what is around him.  I want to see how the team progresses around him.

Right now, i am quite confident TL will be a top QB in the league based upon his ability.  I want to see what they surround him with.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Stats don't matter the first year.
I want to see him evade talented pass rushers and pick up yards with his feet when he has to. That would make him better than Leftwich.
I don't want to see self-sacks (running out of bounds behind the line). That would make him better than Gabbert.
I don't mind if he fails to notice open receivers, as he learns, but when he notices them, I want to see the ball on time and on target. I don't want to see late throws or circus catches just to gain 7 yards. That would make him better than Bortles.
As long as he's the best rookie QB the Jags have ever had, I'm happy.

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My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.

I'm sorry but right now I still think we sit him for the first 5-6 games or until we think hes genuinely ready to start. Theres no right way, Mahomes sat for a year, Rodgers sat for 3 nearly 4 years, Herbert played from the start, its what's right for your guy.

I don't have any numbers I expect him to hit, just want to see him looking better and things slowing down for him by the end of the season. Seeing which guys work with his playing style and what players dont or we need to add.

First year of a new HC is often seeing what you have that fits your system and style and then moving forwards. It's not all on Lawrence to turn us around and he isnt a vet QB we are bringing in to take us over the top, hes our guy for the next 15 years.

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I'm sorry but right now I still think we sit him for the first 5-6 games or until we think hes genuinely ready to start. Theres no right way, Mahomes sat for a year, Rodgers sat for 3 nearly 4 years, Herbert played from the start, its what's right for your guy.

I don't have any numbers I expect him to hit, just want to see him looking better and things slowing down for him by the end of the season. Seeing which guys work with his playing style and what players dont or we need to add.

First year of a new HC is often seeing what you have that fits your system and style and then moving forwards. It's not all on Lawrence to turn us around and he isnt a vet QB we are bringing in to take us over the top, hes our guy for the next 15 years.

I am not opposed to this strategy.  I agree completely with you.

Plenty of great QBs, including those recently, have sat for at least part of their rookie years and have been great.  Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers are among many others who have sat in their first years.

I think that would be most beneficial to Lawrence in our situation,  Cam Robinson is a free agent.  He was our starting LT last year and hasn't been overly dominant in pass protection.He can be upgraded.  If we get a veteran like Trent Williams to protect his blindside, hopefully the OL gels early on and TL can play earlier.  But if we end up with a rookie LT, I think sitting him early until the OL gels would be beneficial.  Under those circumstances, let a vet backup take all of the abuse early on until the OL gets it together, then bring in Lawrence. 

My concern is not so much whether Lawrence is ready, but more that the OL is ready.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I'm sorry but right now I still think we sit him for the first 5-6 games or until we think hes genuinely ready to start. Theres no right way, Mahomes sat for a year, Rodgers sat for 3 nearly 4 years, Herbert played from the start, its what's right for your guy.

I don't have any numbers I expect him to hit, just want to see him looking better and things slowing down for him by the end of the season. Seeing which guys work with his playing style and what players dont or we need to add.

First year of a new HC is often seeing what you have that fits your system and style and then moving forwards. It's not all on Lawrence to turn us around and he isnt a vet QB we are bringing in to take us over the top, hes our guy for the next 15 years.

Interestingly, former LA Chargers HC / new Lions OC Anthony Lynn discussed the rookie QB topic yesterday ( when speaking to the media covering the Lions ). Including, what transpired with veteran Tyrod Taylor and rookie Justin Herbert in Los Angeles, as well as mentioning Patrick Mahomes with Kansas City.  

Lions OC Lynn's philosophy on rookie QBs all but locks in Goff as 2021 starter (detroitnews.com)

Regarding Trevor Lawrence's situation, the overall COVID-19 situation in the late spring and summer, as well as when he's cleared to participate in practice,  probably will be a huge part of the decision making process of Urban Meyer, Darrell Bevell, Brian Schottenheimer, and Co.

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I'm expecting a lot of bumps along the way. I in no way, am expecting him to come in and "light things up." Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning were great NFL QB's and they had less than stellar rookie seasons. Luck didn't even complete 55% of his passes and as mentioned earlier, Manning threw 28 interceptions in their first year. Rookie QB stats mean very little. I just want to see improvement by him week by week. It will his 2nd and 3rd seasons where we will be able to gauge how his career will go.

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A million yards
500 TDs
0 INTs

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I'm sorry but right now I still think we sit him for the first 5-6 games or until we think hes genuinely ready to start. Theres no right way, Mahomes sat for a year, Rodgers sat for 3 nearly 4 years, Herbert played from the start, its what's right for your guy.

I don't have any numbers I expect him to hit, just want to see him looking better and things slowing down for him by the end of the season. Seeing which guys work with his playing style and what players dont or we need to add.

First year of a new HC is often seeing what you have that fits your system and style and then moving forwards. It's not all on Lawrence to turn us around and he isnt a vet QB we are bringing in to take us over the top, hes our guy for the next 15 years.

I am not opposed to this strategy.  I agree completely with you.

Plenty of great QBs, including those recently, have sat for at least part of their rookie years and have been great.  Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers are among many others who have sat in their first years.

I think that would be most beneficial to Lawrence in our situation,  Cam Robinson is a free agent.  He was our starting LT last year and hasn't been overly dominant in pass protection.He can be upgraded.  If we get a veteran like Trent Williams to protect his blindside, hopefully the OL gels early on and TL can play earlier.  But if we end up with a rookie LT, I think sitting him early until the OL gels would be beneficial.  Under those circumstances, let a vet backup take all of the abuse early on until the OL gets it together, then bring in Lawrence. 

My concern is not so much whether Lawrence is ready, but more that the OL is ready.

Hey Bullseye. Hope your doing well bud.
I get Lawrence will be our shiny new QB but after seeing what happened with Foles and Burrow, and like you say, our O line has problems and LT needs to be addressed this off season, I just dont want to see Lawrence lose a year to an injury that could be avoided. Let him learn the new O and there will be a time for him to become the starter. 

The O is learning a new system yet again and it takes time. No idea what the off season will go so he may need those extra weeks.

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I'm sorry but right now I still think we sit him for the first 5-6 games or until we think hes genuinely ready to start. Theres no right way, Mahomes sat for a year, Rodgers sat for 3 nearly 4 years, Herbert played from the start, its what's right for your guy.

I don't have any numbers I expect him to hit, just want to see him looking better and things slowing down for him by the end of the season. Seeing which guys work with his playing style and what players dont or we need to add.

First year of a new HC is often seeing what you have that fits your system and style and then moving forwards. It's not all on Lawrence to turn us around and he isnt a vet QB we are bringing in to take us over the top, hes our guy for the next 15 years.

Interestingly, former LA Chargers HC / new Lions OC Anthony Lynn discussed the rookie QB topic yesterday ( when speaking to the media covering the Lions ). Including, what transpired with veteran Tyrod Taylor and rookie Justin Herbert in Los Angeles, as well as mentioning Patrick Mahomes with Kansas City.  

Lions OC Lynn's philosophy on rookie QBs all but locks in Goff as 2021 starter (detroitnews.com)

Regarding Trevor Lawrence's situation, the overall COVID-19 situation in the late spring and summer, as well as when he's cleared to participate in practice,  probably will be a huge part of the decision making process of Urban Meyer, Darrell Bevell, Brian Schottenheimer, and Co.

Thanks. Good read and I agree with his points. I've no idea if teams will have training camps and OTA's yet this year but it's a great point and another reason I think we may need to be patient. You can only do so much over zoom and seeing Lynn's comments about confidence, I fear throwing Lawrence in as hes the #1 pick before he or the team is ready. Next year will be another rebuilding year for us Jags so no need to rush in my opinion

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