(04-30-2023, 11:10 AM)Khan Artist Wrote:

(04-30-2023, 10:26 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: The failure to move back up really bit them in the backside 

Baalke has said 15 teams turned down his attempts to trade back up. 

We have a glut of longshots and spent low capital in places we needed real help. 
Not ideal.

Do you get the sense that people don't want to work with Baalke?  Or maybe he just doesn't have a great understanding of how to value picks?

(04-30-2023, 12:39 PM)wassy04 Wrote: Just out of interest, everyone going on about not trading back into the 3rd? I'm interested to know what exactly you're expecting to give up?

I scrolled through all the trades done and the cast majority were late round picks to move up 3-5 spaces so you'd still lose the 3rd round pick?

Is the idea that we should've traded up to the top of the 3rd and gave up our 3rd? Or are you expecting an extra 3rd?

(04-30-2023, 02:30 PM)wassy04 Wrote:

(04-30-2023, 12:45 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: There are a ton of pick value charts out there.

They had ammunition to get back into the third by packaging two fourths and a sixth - and a number of scenarios to get back into the 4th
Baalke admittedly tried and failed to make it happen.

It's a tough break.
Wasted value on players of low probability to make the team.

I know in theory you could offer value but that doesn't mean there's a bunch of teams willing to do it. If everyone is aware there isn't value further down it implies the teams value the 6/7ths even lower than the models.

There's not many if any examples this year of teams trading into the 3rd round from miles back.

o  No. 56 overall (Round 2) 340
o  No. 88 overall (Round 3) 150
o  No. 121 overall (Round 4) 52
o  No. 127 overall (Round 4) 45
o  No. 130 overall (Round 4) 42
o  No. 160 overall (Round 5) 28
o  No. 185 overall (Round 6) 18
o  No. 202 overall (Round 6) 11
o  No. 208 overall (Round 6) 9
o  No. 226 overall (Round 7) 3
o  No. 240 overall (Round 7) 1

So if we wanted to make an approximately fair offer, we're saying we'd need all three 4ths just to get into round 3 again. Worth it? Were we really willing to give up that much and were other teams still not interested. 

Obviously none of us know but you can get an idea of how difficult it is to try and create another 3rd rounder without giving up your own one.

We could've gone up from 88, 10-15 places perhaps but would've likely been giving up a lot still. 

I kind of think taking a bunch of dart throws/role players is a better strategy personally.

Everyone keeps harping on the "not trading back up" as a huge Baalke failure, and bring up the teams that traded up.

This completely forgets that the teams trading down have to believe they can still get they guy(s) they are targeting by trading back to the Jags pick. That just may NOT have been case. Plus in a draft where some of those teams didn't value the late round picks, it may not have happened without blowing them away with a 2024 pick overpay.

For example, the Jags had options to trade back even further from #27 but did not take them because they knew or thought Harrison would no longer be there after #28. 

There is basically nothing Baalke could have done to fix that. Unless he was supposed to 2-3 trades in a row ahead of time to keep moving up, but that is nearly impossible to do because of the same issue where teams don't want to trade their pick 10-15 picks prior to being on the clock because they don't know if their guys will be there or not.

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