Quote:If all I did was watch 10 minutes of YT highlights then I probably would come out of it thinking he deserved to be a dark horse #3 pick candidate.
But instead I went and watched about the full hour of all 5 of his cutups on draftbreakdown.com and the bigger picture came into focus.
That additional 50 minutes is a real game changer in the fake scouting world.
Just watched a little bit of tape on Ray and I like him. He's thick, quick and looks to play with some serious passion.
I also watched Gregory and he looks very thing to me. Like NFL tackles would man handle him (think Dion Jordan). He is such a freak athlete though and so fast.
I am really praying that Williams falls to us because I'm not sure who I would choose between Ray and Gregory.
Quote:If all I did was watch 10 minutes of YT highlights then I probably would come out of it thinking he deserved to be a dark horse #3 pick candidate.
But instead I went and watched about the full hour of all 5 of his cutups on draftbreakdown.com and the bigger picture came into focus.
You're a clown and you really don't know what you're talking about. Not to say I do, but I also know you don't.
Like I said, you'd save yourself a lot of trouble just by saying "IMO" before affirming something as if it's a fact.
The trouble with picking in the top 3 is that you have to get guys that have high floors AS WELL as high ceilings. At least that's my philosophy.
This is how I see the pass rusher situation:
Williams is probably the best all-around, but it also seems he hasn't fully figured out how to use his strength/athleticism combo he has. I guess the ceiling is something similar to JJ Watt, but the likelihood of that happening is probably less than 10%... High floor, high ceiling.
Randy Gregory: I see Aldon Smith, I see Dion Jordan. Not sure if I would pick him at #3 because I just don't have the confidence that he'll be Aldon Smith. Low Floor, High Ceiling.
Shane Ray: I think this guy, in the right system, will pan out in the NFL. Maybe a Steeler's pass-rushing OLB. Maybe a LEO, but I'm not sure. He's very productive like some former Missouri Defensive Ends, but he also has more athleticism than most of them. If he runs like many think he will, and he plays with passion, I think he can be a 10+ sack/season guy.
Low floor, high ceiling.
Dante Fowler, Jr. : I think he may be the pick. Versatile, disruptive, can play in many positions, and seems to be a guy Gus would love to coach. May not be the most athletic of the bunch, or have the highest ceiling, but I think he has the highest floor and still has a pretty high ceiling, making him the best pick outside of Leonard Williams.
Fowler might not be labeled as a good "value" at 3. But I have a hard time seeing that guy as anything less than a good NFL defensive end. With potential to be a double digit a year player.
Quote:Fowler might not be labeled as a good "value" at 3. But I have a hard time seeing that guy as anything less than a good NFL defensive end. With potential to be a double digit a year player.
yeah the "value" can be tricky to assess, but if becomes a good pro then I think it's good value. You obviously try to trade back if there's noone that meets that value, but I think ultimately people overthink the value aspect. It's just about getting good players.
Would Luke Joeckel be a better pick if we picked him at #8 instead of #2? Nah, he'd still be terrible. Just get a guy that comes in and plays well from the get-go, that's what I want from this #3 overall pick.
I think with picks like Gregory or Ray, you're trying to hit home runs... you might strike out. I really think out of those guys mentioned, Fowler will not strike out.
"Luke Joeckel would still... be terrible."
I'm not sure if it's impatience or ignorance that compels people to formulate this opinion about him in this stage of his career, but all I know is that I can't find, see, or hear any informed person who is seriously concerned about his future with us.
Quote:"Luke Joeckel would still... be terrible."
I'm not sure if it's impatience or ignorance that compels people to formulate this opinion about him in this stage of his career, but all I know is that I can't find, see, or hear any informed person who is seriously concerned about his future with us.
It would be an absolute under statement to say that Luke needs to step his game up.
He played pretty crummy last year.
Quote:"Luke Joeckel would still... be terrible."
I'm not sure if it's impatience or ignorance that compels people to formulate this opinion about him in this stage of his career, but all I know is that I can't find, see, or hear any informed person who is seriously concerned about his future with us.
huh?
alright Sherlock, how do you assess Luke's first 2 years in the NFL?
Did I say he can't get better? No. He's been terrible so far for a #2 pick (remember, we were talking about draft value when I brought him up).
He held his own a number of games, and was abused on quite a bit of other games. If he was a 5th round pick you could say he's done alright considering he's young and all that kind of stuff, but for a #2 pick he's been terrible.
Quote:huh?
alright Sherlock, how do you assess Luke's first 2 years in the NFL?
Did I say he can't get better? No. He's been terrible so far for a #2 pick (remember, we were talking about draft value when I brought him up).
He held his own a number of games, and was abused on quite a bit of other games. If he was a 5th round pick you could say he's done alright considering he's young and all that kind of stuff, but for a #2 pick he's been terrible.
First off, I apologize if you took offense at my comment. That was not my intention. I was trying to express how I can't find any corroboration for this viewpoint.
That being said, I would dispute your point on his not living up to his draft status. People assume that a highly selected player is automatically going to be dominant at his position, often disregarding the overall strength of the draft class. If the best player in the draft was valued at a hypothetical 3/5 stars, and he fit a need for the picking team, shouldn't it logically follow that he should be the first pick? Even though he isn't a supremely talented player, he is the best combination of need and value.
The 2013 draft was one of the weakest in memory. I actually made a thread some time ago pointing out how, of the first round picks, only a handful were finding success.
However, you are right in that his play hasn't been up to par, not remotely so. I think his future is bright, however. Give him a full off-season to get stronger- his biggest weakness coming out- and I think we will be satisfied. If he hasn't significantly improved this year (along with all the other improvements we expect, need, and demand) there will definitely be cause for concern.
I don't see it happening. Williams, Gregory, and Fowler are all better prospects in my mind. I can see Ray falling out of the top 10.
I prefer Dupree over Ray as well
Did anyone catch the interview with the NFL Network guy who says he is hearing that Shane Ray may only be 6'1" 240 lbs? The lack of length may hurt him.
None of the pass rushers other than perhaps Leonard Williams will likely have much of an impact during their rookie season.
Randy Gregory needs to add some weight and more strength. If the Jags can't get Leonard Williams, then I would lean towards the potential the Randy Gregory offers.
Quote:Did anyone catch the interview with the NFL Network guy who says he is hearing that Shane Ray may only be 6'1" 240 lbs? The lack of length may hurt him.
None of the pass rushers other than perhaps Leonard Williams will likely have much of an impact during their rookie season.
Randy Gregory needs to add some weight and more strength. If the Jags can't get Leonard Williams, then I would lean towards the potential the Randy Gregory offers.
Wow 6"1?! That's going to hurt him. He also cannot drop back in coverage to save his life (see the SC game I think). It was just one time but it was extremely tough to watch.
I agree with you about Gregory right behind Williams. Gregory IMO has the highest ceiling in the draft and would be tough to pass up at #3.
Quote:Wow 6"1?! That's going to hurt him. He also cannot drop back in coverage to save his life (see the SC game I think). It was just one time but it was extremely tough to watch.
I agree with you about Gregory right behind Williams. Gregory IMO has the highest ceiling in the draft and would be tough to pass up at #3.
gregory is potentially setting up to be the biggest bust of this draft class.
Quote:gregory is potentially setting up to be the biggest bust of this draft class.
Why? Low floor but extremely high ceiling. Especially as our leo.
Quote:Why? Low floor but extremely high ceiling. Especially as our leo.
You yourself said low floor
Quote:You yourself said low floor
You can't draft scared. He's worth the risk.
Quote:You can't draft scared. He's worth the risk.
With guys drafted on potential, you like to see them get better. Gregory just can't get off blocks. He's athletic but gets stoned all the time. Im really not sure he is gonna be any better than branch.