Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Im still all for keeping him, I still dont believe he hurts us any by having him. I just hope he does make a comeback...

Quote:Im still all for keeping him, I still dont believe he hurts us any by having him. I just hope he does make a comeback...

 

exactly. 

 

Only those with an agenda really want to hastily get rid of Blackmon. 

Quote:lol, you say that as if its a mortal lock. 

 

Theres equally a chance that he straightens himself out and resumes his top 5/ top 10 level play. I'd rather that be for the Jags than one of the 31 competitors. 

 

there is an equal chance that he doesnt mess up again? how did that work out the last 3 times?

Quote:lol, you say that as if its a mortal lock. 

 

Theres equally a chance that he straightens himself out and resumes his top 5/ top 10 level play. I'd rather that be for the Jags than one of the 31 competitors. 

 

Sorry, but the odds he straightens himself out are not even based on his track record.  Odds are heavily skewed toward him having a relapse. 

Quote:Sorry, but the odds he straightens himself out are not even based on his track record. Odds are heavily skewed toward him having a relapse.

Exactly. Only those with an agenda would suggest that there are even odds that Blackmon straightens himself out.

Quote:Exactly. Only those with an agenda would suggest that there are even odds that Blackmon straightens himself out.

 

It's not like there's a track record or something we can use as a guide. 

 

I certainly am among those who hope the kid can get things back on track, but I'm not deluding myself into thinking it's a 50/50 proposition.  It's not. 

Quote:Exactly. Only those with an agenda would suggest that there are even odds that Blackmon straightens himself out.

 

SHORTS BAD. BLACKMON GOOD. FRIES BURNING. 

Quote:It's not like there's a track record or something we can use as a guide. 

 

I certainly am among those who hope the kid can get things back on track, but I'm not deluding myself into thinking it's a 50/50 proposition.  It's not. 

I do have to agree with this. While I am positive he can get it back on track, the odds are against him.

 

Having said that, odds can be beaten, and while there's a chance, it'd be a hard pill for me to swallow if Blackmon were let go and picked up by someone else.

Quote:I do have to agree with this. While I am positive he can get it back on track, the odds are against him.

 

Having said that, odds can be beaten, and while there's a chance, it'd be a hard pill for me to swallow if Blackmon were let go and picked up by someone else.

Yup.  His track record almost mandates that the chances of him coming back are less than even by a pretty sizable margin. 

 

I agree that odds can be beaten, and I'm hopeful he proves that to be true.  I see a special talent in Blackmon, and if we can realize his full potential, we've got a pretty dynamic passing attack on the horizon.

I'll be honest, I'm tempering any expectation of Blackmon based on the fact that I doubt he can fix his issues.  I've read a poster mention that those being pessimistic are rationalizing.  Well, to be too optimistic is also a rationalization that allows for optimism.  That's how the whole thing works, psychologically speaking. Our minds create a premise to validate our world view.

 

With that said, I don't think anyone wants to just cut bait on this guy.  It's a really sad situation--Someone with huge talent and huge potential that is apparently throwing it away because of an addiction.  But in life, things like this happen and we are seeing it from an outside perspective.  The only reason we care and are discussing it is because he's a Jaguar.  On a personal level I hope he turns it around.  But I'm old enough to know that even if he's reinstated and stays on the straight and narrow, he'll eventually have a relapse.  The odds are stacked against him.  If he's unlucky enough to have a relapse during a drug test, well he'll more than likely be cut. 

 

I guess my question would be what happens if he gets another dirty test result after he's reinstated?  Is it a lifetime ban?  That to me seems pretty harsh if it's just alcohol and/or THC.  But I'm not sure how strict the substance abuse policy is anymore.  

 

But let's face it, addicts almost always relapse at least once during recovery... Anywhere from 60-90% of addicts relapse in the 1st year...  It's not a good sign for Blackmon, if he's not taking this thing seriously.  

 

I will say that based on his inability to stay on the field and the fact that the probability of him being caught again with a dirty test, I do think that some folks are over-hyping Blackmon's abilities.  We're talking about a football player and the person that he is.  This is not a fantasy football or Madden situation where we just look at measurables and compare them with YAC, Drop%, #ofTargets, ETC...

 

We're talking about a real person that has real demons.  His talent on the football field is dwarfed by the constraints of the drug policy of the NFL and his apparent drug and alcohol abuse problem.  Therefore, to just say how elite his potential is seems to be ignoring the fact that he cannot stay on the field due to his addictions for a sustained amount of time.

 

That is my rationalization.  Maybe Blackmon can be the exception and turn it around without any relapse.  The odds are against that.  If he does relapse I believe he's gone.  Therefore, I'm not pinning any hopes on this guy.

 

For someone to say that "with Blackmon we'll have the greatest WR corps of all time" (paraphrase) is just so ridiculous. 1.  There's no guarantee Blackmon is a WR long enough to actually see his talent.  2.  Pinning hopes on 2 WRs that have not even played a game in the NFL is not... wise.

 

Let's hope for the best.  Caldwell and Bradley are correct in assuming Blackmon's value as a "luxury".  That's all he is.  And most often, in business and in life, luxuries eventually become liabilities...  Once a luxury becomes a liability hard decisions are made.  

 

We're not at hard decisions--yet.  

 

But our franchise is not in a position to hold on to luxuries for very long. 

Quote:I'll be honest, I'm tempering any expectation of Blackmon based on the fact that I doubt he can fix his issues.  I've read a poster mention that those being pessimistic are rationalizing.  Well, to be too optimistic is also a rationalization that allows for optimism.  That's how the whole thing works, psychologically speaking. Our minds create a premise to validate our world view.

 

With that said, I don't think anyone wants to just cut bait on this guy.  It's a really sad situation--Someone with huge talent and huge potential that is apparently throwing it away because of an addiction.  But in life, things like this happen and we are seeing it from an outside perspective.  The only reason we care and are discussing it is because he's a Jaguar.  On a personal level I hope he turns it around.  But I'm old enough to know that even if he's reinstated and stays on the straight and narrow, he'll eventually have a relapse.  The odds are stacked against him.  If he's unlucky enough to have a relapse during a drug test, well he'll more than likely be cut. 

 

I guess my question would be what happens if he gets another dirty test result after he's reinstated?  Is it a lifetime ban?  That to me seems pretty harsh if it's just alcohol and/or THC.  But I'm not sure how strict the substance abuse policy is anymore.  

 

But let's face it, addicts almost always relapse at least once during recovery... Anywhere from 60-90% of addicts relapse in the 1st year...  It's not a good sign for Blackmon, if he's not taking this thing seriously.  

 

I will say that based on his inability to stay on the field and the fact that the probability of him being caught again with a dirty test, I do think that some folks are over-hyping Blackmon's abilities.  We're talking about a football player and the person that he is.  This is not a fantasy football or Madden situation where we just look at measurables and compare them with YAC, Drop%, #ofTargets, ETC...

 

We're talking about a real person that has real demons.  His talent on the football field is dwarfed by the constraints of the drug policy of the NFL and his apparent drug and alcohol abuse problem.  Therefore, to just say how elite his potential is seems to be ignoring the fact that he cannot stay on the field due to his addictions for a sustained amount of time.

 

That is my rationalization.  Maybe Blackmon can be the exception and turn it around without any relapse.  The odds are against that.  If he does relapse I believe he's gone.  Therefore, I'm not pinning any hopes on this guy.

 

For someone to say that "with Blackmon we'll have the greatest WR corps of all time" (paraphrase) is just so ridiculous. 1.  There's no guarantee Blackmon is a WR long enough to actually see his talent.  2.  Pinning hopes on 2 WRs that have not even played a game in the NFL is not... wise.

 

Let's hope for the best.  Caldwell and Bradley are correct in assuming Blackmon's value as a "luxury".  That's all he is.  And most often, in business and in life, luxuries eventually become liabilities...  Once a luxury becomes a liability hard decisions are made.  

 

We're not at hard decisions--yet.  

 

But our franchise is not in a position to hold on to luxuries for very long. 

 

I think we are in a good position to hold him as long as his contract allows.

Quote:I think we are in a good position to hold him as long as his contract allows.

 

Yep, theres absolutely no detriment to the team for holding on to Blackmon's rights for as long as it takes. 

Meanwhile, Florio chimes in...


http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/201...einstated/

Quote:Yep, theres absolutely no detriment to the team for holding on to Blackmon's rights for as long as it takes. 

 

Obviously, look at the 2nd and 3rd pick of this years draft...  The writing is on the wall that this luxury is being considered a future liability.  

 

A potential hole at WR needed to be addressed.  The Front Office did that in a big way this draft.  It's not even a matter of opinion or conjecture, it's a fact.  They would like Blackmon on the field, but there's not guarantee he ever will be. 

 

To create a premise that he's gonna become the keystone of the GOAT WR Corp seems way too optimistic if you live in reality.

Quote:Meanwhile, Florio chimes in...

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/201...einstated/

 

Wow. Usually I hate reading Florio, but he absolutely hit the nail on the head with this right here! Funny how I was ridiculed for taking a similar stance a few weeks back. It looks like others, especially in the main stream media are beginning to come around!

Quote:Wow. Usually I hate reading Florio, but he absolutely hit the nail on the head with this right here! Funny how I was ridiculed for taking a similar stance a few weeks back. It looks like others, especially in the main stream media are beginning to come around!

I do think the league is more concerned about protecting their image rather than the players.

Florio does make good points. I'm sure that by the time a new collective bargaining agreement is done, at the latest, we'll see many changes as to how the league deals with these sorts of issues.

 

I'm also pleased how many posters seem to show genuine concern over Blackmon's well being and some understanding of how hard it can be to deal with addiction(s). Of course, if he were a sixth round draft pick I wonder how much sympathy we'd see being expressed.

Quote:Florio does make good points. I'm sure that by the time a new collective bargaining agreement is done, at the latest, we'll see many changes as to how the league deals with these sorts of issues.


I'm also pleased how many posters seem to show genuine concern over Blackmon's well being and some understanding of how hard it can be to deal with addiction(s). Of course, if he were a sixth round draft pick I wonder how much sympathy we'd see being expressed.

it's a disease and it's probably comorbid with depression and anxiety. that furthermore complicates things for someone. I do think Blackmon has to grow up but he also needs to get him before he can do so and i hope he does. He seems like a good kid.

Quote: 

 

I'm also pleased how many posters seem to show genuine concern over Blackmon's well being and some understanding of how hard it can be to deal with addiction(s). Of course, if he were a sixth round draft pick I wonder how much sympathy we'd see being expressed.

 

Now this is funny, coming from Brian. 

Quote:Meanwhile, Florio chimes in...

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/201...einstated/

 

Someone has to be punking us because there's no way Florio wrote that article.

 

Seriously, this article is spot on.  The policy is garbage.  When a player needs help the most, the league severs all contact and leaves them on their own.  It's a stupid policy.