Im sorry to inform some folks around here, but the Jaguars are legitimately as talented as they have been in 10 years. There are no true weaknesses on this roster. The Jaguars have playmakers at every level offensively to pair with and elite talent on defense. The pass rush will break through this year as Jackson and Campbell will free up the young rushers to have consistent 1 v 1 opportunities. Blake finally has a roster he can work with, I truly believe that he will be a brand new QB in the Marrone/TC system, a lot less will fall on his shoulders and we will be able to cut his passing attempts by about 100-125 which will increase our chances exponentially. Looking at that schedule I see at least 10 wins, 4 in the division. I'm looking forward to it and to serving crow on the naysayers
I can easily see that many wins happening, because the division is so mediocre at best overall. I won't predict that many because really we'd need to see special teams hold their own and the running game improve dramatically for it to happen in addition to Bortles becoming more efficient than he's ever been. Still, I think that 10 wins is quite achievable by cleaning up a lot of areas that Gus seemed to completely fail at.
If Fournette is the real deal and has a 1200+ yard 10+ TD season and Bortles can change his TD/INT ratio to be 5/2 or 3/1 instead of the 2/1 or worse that it has been over the last two seasons, then the Jaguars will win a lot of games.
I'll believe it when I see it..
It's very possible, probable even, that we as fans over rate our own players as we've apparently been doing for the past 9 seasons. I've heard this 10+ win projection every off season. I've even participated in it some in years past. We're still dealing with a lot of unknowns at this point in time and this projection is likely going to rely on some heavy contributions by rookies which historically you can't count on. I do think a healthy Fournette gets 1200+ rushing yards and I do think we win more games because of it, but 12 wins could have us vying for a playoff bye and that just seems a little lofty to me at this point given where we were just last December.
Let's get through mini-camp, training camp and pre-season unscathed first. This rush to proclaim 10, 11, 12 wins in May hasn't worked out so well for those who've done it in the past.
Quote:It's very possible, probable even, that we as fans over rate our own players as we've apparently been doing for the past 9 seasons. I've heard this 10+ win projection every off season. I've even participated in it some in years past. We're still dealing with a lot of unknowns at this point in time and this projection is likely going to rely on some heavy contributions by rookies which historically you can't count on. I do think a healthy Fournette gets 1200+ rushing yards and I do think we win more games because of it, but 12 wins could have us vying for a playoff bye and that just seems a little lofty to me at this point given where we were just last December.
Let's get through mini-camp, training camp and pre-season unscathed first. This rush to proclaim 10, 11, 12 wins in May hasn't worked out so well for those who've done it in the past.
In years past, I would have agreed with you, but there is more than false hope behind my proclimations. One Gus is gone, which was a large part of the problem. 2nd, we have 5-6 elite level deference makers on this football team; Campbell, Jackson, Ramsey, Bouye, Smith, A-Rob then you have a guy like Fournette who should instantly be one of the best at his position from day 1. 12 wins may be a stretch, but double digits is definitely attainable. I'm telling folks, this will look like a whole new team, TC did an unbelievable job of improving this roster this offseason.
Albert > Beachum
Robinson > Cann
Fournette > Ivory/Yeldon
Westbrook > Greene
Williams > Alualu(FB)
Bouye > Prince
Church > Cyp
Campbell > Odrick
I still see 8 wins as the ceiling unless Bortles surprises us all and takes a big leap in accuracy and turnover ratio.
But of course - it's very early to make such a prediction.
nope. Unless blake gets his head on straight we are lucky to win 6 games. I did a analysis on reasons why on the what does borltes need to do thread.
Quote:I still see 8 wins as the ceiling unless Bortles surprises us all and takes a big leap in accuracy and turnover ratio.
But of course - it's very early to make such a prediction.
He's not going to turn the ball over at nearly the same rate because he will have significantly less passing attempts and many more opportunities for 1 v 1's as we will be playing against a loaded box.
Quote:nope. Unless blake gets his head on straight we are lucky to win 6 games. I did a analysis on reasons why on the what does borltes need to do thread.
Your analysis is flawed is that you are neglecting to consider the statistical significance in his drop off in attempts. If he cuts down his passing attempts by 100+ we are in the playoffs. Many games were lost last year due to our inability to run the ball and close out games.
Is this a repost from last year? Remember how that turned out?
We got rid bobblehead Gus, but that's only half the equation. With Bortles still at QB, the ceiling for wins is 5, and that's even with a top 10 defense.
It's hard to win games when you have to overcome pick 6s and quarter-long stretches where the offense is stuck in the mud.
Quote:Im sorry to inform some folks around here, but the Jaguars are legitimately as talented as they have been in 10 years. There are no true weaknesses on this roster. The Jaguars have playmakers at every level offensively to pair with and elite talent on defense. The pass rush will break through this year as Jackson and Campbell will free up the young rushers to have consistent 1 v 1 opportunities. Blake finally has a roster he can work with, I truly believe that he will be a brand new QB in the Marrone/TC system, a lot less will fall on his shoulders and we will be able to cut his passing attempts by about 100-125 which will increase our chances exponentially. Looking at that schedule I see at least 10 wins, 4 in the division. I'm looking forward to it and to serving crow on the naysayers
Shhh....
We all know this much but we know better than to let the cat out of the bag just yet. How are we going to sneak up on teams out of the gate if you let it out just how good the Jaguars are right now?
BTW, if you think your prediction is bold, the day Coughlin was hired, my wife predicted the Jaguars would win the SB.
But don't tell anyone.
Shhh....
Quote:Is this a repost from last year? Remember how that turned out?
We got rid bobblehead Gus, but that's only half the equation. With Bortles still at QB, the ceiling for wins is 5, and that's even with a top 10 defense.
It's hard to win games when you have to overcome pick 6s and quarter-long stretches where the offense is stuck in the mud.
With a true top ten defense, AKA top ten scoring defense, the team probably could have won 6 games just last season with everything that went wrong. The defense was bottom 10 in scoring, which means more than yardage.
When the Jaguars needed to stop teams in 2016 they couldn't do it. Start actually stopping teams at critical times and suddenly you start winning games.
Quote:Is this a repost from last year? Remember how that turned out?
We got rid bobblehead Gus, but that's only half the equation. With Bortles still at QB, the ceiling for wins is 5, and that's even with a top 10 defense.
It's hard to win games when you have to overcome pick 6s and quarter-long stretches where the offense is stuck in the mud.
No, I haven't hyped the team up in many, many years. I've been around here since 09 and a Jags fan long prior to that. I have to commend the master roster building that has taken place this off season, Caldwell brought in pieces but was never able to articulate his vision of the teams true "identity" which has set back the rebuild. TC has come in and helped him build to this rosters strengths and develop that missing identity. Physical, ball control football, won at the point of attack. There's no point in even comparing the two offenses because not only is the personnel different, but the identity will be the exact opposite of what it has been in the past. No more 650+ passes, no motion, base formation, no FB garbage.
Quote:Shhh....
We all know this much but we know better than to let the cat out of the bag just yet. How are we going to sneak up on teams out of the gate if you let it out just how good the Jaguars are right now?
BTW, if you think your prediction is bold, the day Coughlin was hired, my wife predicted the Jaguars would win the SB.
But don't tell anyone.
Shhh....
The cat is out of the bag, he media is onto us and the rest of the division has made "monkey see" moves to keep up with offseason acquisitions.
Pa-leeeeze! Cut that number in half.
I love the Fournette pick. But if we're down 2 or 3 scores then we have to pass the ball. Which means Bottles has the put the team on his back. Leopold will say I'm crying. But Bortles will need to fix that motion before 10 wins happens.
To expand on my point about a true top ten defense, the Jaguars defense allowed 400 points in 2016, the tenth best scoring defense (Pittsburgh) allowed 327 points. If the Jaguars were a borderline top ten defense, say allowing about 320 points, they'd have allowed 5 less points per game, in a season in which the Jaguars were 2-8 in one score games. If the defense allowed 5 less points per game how many more games does the team win?
If the defense had allowed 5 less points in every game the Jaguars would have been 8-7 with one overtime game against KC, which maybe they win, maybe they lose.
Teams that beat the Jaguars by less than 5 points:
Green Bay
Baltimore
texans twice
cotls in week 17.
So that's 5 games the Jaguars win if the defense allows 5 less points, and one they might win.
8-8 should be the lower end of expectations for the team if the defense actually turns into a real top ten unit. If the run game is dominant that 8-8 should be foregone. If Bortles becomes more consistently good the team should easily win the division and possibly be looking at a bye in the playoffs.
A lot of ifs, but like I said, but the big one is the defense being an actual top ten unit, not just a top ten "yardage" unit.
Quote:Pa-leeeeze! Cut that number in half.
I love the Fournette pick. But if we're down 2 or 3 scores then we have to pass the ball. Which means Bottles has the put the team on his back. Leopold will say I'm crying. But Bortles will need to fix that motion before 10 wins happens.
The motion is already reset, he's worked with House and the boys already this season and in the workout footage that's been released, the mechanics look sharp. The problem with Blake has always been, as the season wears on and he starts to get fatigue on his arm and absorbs those hits, his mechanics deteriorate. The makeup of this team will allow him to stay upright more and attempt significantly less passes next year and into the future. This is why you needed a guy like TC to come in and finish putting the pieces together.
Quote:To expand on my point about a true top ten defense, the Jaguars defense allowed 400 points in 2016, the tenth best scoring defense (Pittsburgh) allowed 327 points. If the Jaguars were a borderline top ten defense, say allowing about 320 points, they'd have allowed 5 less points per game, in a season in which the Jaguars were 2-8 in one score games. If the defense allowed 5 less points per game how many more games does the team win?
If the defense had allowed 5 less points in every game the Jaguars would have been 8-7 with one overtime game against KC, which maybe they win, maybe they lose.
Teams that beat the Jaguars by less than 5 points:
Green Bay
Baltimore
texans twice
cotls in week 17.
So that's 5 games the Jaguars win if the defense allows 5 less points, and one they might win.
8-8 should be the lower end of expectations for the team if the defense actually turns into a real top ten unit. If the run game is dominant that 8-8 should be foregone. If Bortles becomes more consistently good the team should easily win the division and possibly be looking at a bye in the playoffs.
A lot of ifs, but like I said, but the big one is the defense being an actual top ten unit, not just a top ten "yardage" unit.
The turnovers and poor special teams play led to us being a poor scoring defense. They were defending a short field the whole season. Give me a break, they were a solid unit, they just need the pass rush to come to life.
Quote:He's not going to turn the ball over at nearly the same rate because he will have significantly less passing attempts and many more opportunities for 1 v 1's as we will be playing against a loaded box.
.
I think assuming there will be a frequent loaded box is unwise.
I think they plan to discourage that by putting Lee and Westbrook out there enough to force defenses to play more honest.
More one on one matchups mean nothing if his accuracy is as poor as it was last year.
I'm not comfortable with all this assumption of improvement from the QB. I was encouraged by Hackett and Marrone using him more wisely - but he has to hold up his end too. And that could still go either way.
Quote:The turnovers and poor special teams play led to us being a poor scoring defense. They were defending a short field the whole season. Give me a break, they were a solid unit, they just need the pass rush to come to life.
The Jaguars didn't do themselves any favors with turnovers, but this meme of absolving the defense because of turnovers is moronic. A big part of the problem is that the defense never caused any turnovers back to the offense.
Remember that #10 overall scoring defense in 2016, Pittsburgh? Pittsburgh comitted 15 INTs on the season, so one less than the Jaguars committed.
You know what the difference was? No excuses and good coaching. The Jaguars have been coddled in every position group for years. No more whining about what the offense did, time for the defense to be a true strength of the team, and top 10 isn't elite. The patriots allowed 250 points on the season. You know how many games the Jagaurs would have won if the defense held teams to 9 less points per game? 8 more games with one more tie which could go either way, so possibly 9 more wins, with the offensive output staying the same.
It's excuse makers being put in charge that allow teams to be as bad as the Jaguars have been for as long as they've been.
Yeah, me either. I'll need more than just a video. Preseason is where I'll be judging. If they are fixed then I'm behind Bortles.
But if comes out and plays like Bottles, then I hope it's 2007 all over again and he's cut like Del Rio did Lefty.