Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Unless Bortles flips a switch in the second half he is good as gone.

(10-31-2018, 01:06 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]Drafting a QB is a complete crapshoot.

How many GMs or coaches do you actually trust? Everyone has had their fair share of misses at QB.

Andy Reid looks like a genius for Mahomes right now....but he had some busts along the way, including at the QB position like Kevin Kolb.

Same can be said for O'brien and every other team in the league, including the Pats.  Every QB whisperer has a name or two he'd like to bury as well.

(10-31-2018, 09:11 PM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah that's what I mean by taking it in a vaccum. If it was a 1 year endeavour, they did great. Unfortunately that's not how they should be judged.

And to be fair, this last month has probably been about as far into the trough as our wave outcome could possibly land too.

(10-31-2018, 10:01 PM)nate Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-31-2018, 01:06 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]Drafting a QB is a complete crapshoot.

How many GMs or coaches do you actually trust? Everyone has had their fair share of misses at QB.

Andy Reid looks like a genius for Mahomes right now....but he had some busts along the way, including at the QB position like Kevin Kolb.

Same can be said for O'brien and every other team in the league, including the Pats.  Every QB whisperer has a name or two he'd like to bury as well.

Completely agree. QB's are judging so ruthlessly, one bad year and they are in trouble. Take Bortles second season or last year, he looked good played Well, made some mistakes yes but didn't look a bust. Same with Derek Carr, when he took Oakland to the playoffs, he was the new prototype, now he may be on his way out. Prescott at Dallas went 13-3 and Dallas looked to have bagged a franchise QB in the 4th but now he is getting blamed for Dallas. 

Here's just a quick survey, here's every starting QB in the league, how many do you guys rate as a elite QB.

Flacco, Dalton, Roethlisberger, Mayfield
Brady, Josh Allen, Darnold, Tannehill
Luck, Watson, Bortles, Mariotta
Rivers, Carr, Mahomes, Keenum
Rodgers, Stafford, Trubisky, Cousins
Wentz, Prescott, Smith, Manning
Newton, Brees, Ryan, Winston
Wilson, Goff, Jimmy G, Rosen

Regarding 1st round QB's -- I think I get 18 successful picks from 2000 to 2016 out of 45 for all teams........and that is being pretty fair to give it that much, throwing in the likes of Mariota and Cutler as successses.

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(10-31-2018, 10:36 PM)JagFan81 Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-31-2018, 10:01 PM)nate Wrote: [ -> ]Andy Reid looks like a genius for Mahomes right now....but he had some busts along the way, including at the QB position like Kevin Kolb.

Same can be said for O'brien and every other team in the league, including the Pats.  Every QB whisperer has a name or two he'd like to bury as well.

Completely agree. QB's are judging so ruthlessly, one bad year and they are in trouble. Take Bortles second season or last year, he looked good played Well, made some mistakes yes but didn't look a bust. Same with Derek Carr, when he took Oakland to the playoffs, he was the new prototype, now he may be on his way out. Prescott at Dallas went 13-3 and Dallas looked to have bagged a franchise QB in the 4th but now he is getting blamed for Dallas. 

Here's just a quick survey, here's every starting QB in the league, how many do you guys rate as a elite QB.

Roethlisberger,
Brady, 
Luck,
Rivers, Mahomes, 
Rodgers
Wentz,
Newton, Brees
Goff,

I think I'm being pretty liberal in use of the term elite in this eval.....

(10-31-2018, 10:36 PM)nate Wrote: [ -> ]Regarding 1st round QB's -- I think I get 18 successful picks from 2000 to 2016 out of 45 for all teams........and that is being pretty fair to give it that much, throwing in the likes of Mariota and Cutler as successses.

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(10-31-2018, 10:36 PM)JagFan81 Wrote: [ -> ]Completely agree. QB's are judging so ruthlessly, one bad year and they are in trouble. Take Bortles second season or last year, he looked good played Well, made some mistakes yes but didn't look a bust. Same with Derek Carr, when he took Oakland to the playoffs, he was the new prototype, now he may be on his way out. Prescott at Dallas went 13-3 and Dallas looked to have bagged a franchise QB in the 4th but now he is getting blamed for Dallas. 

Here's just a quick survey, here's every starting QB in the league, how many do you guys rate as a elite QB.

Roethlisberger,
Brady, 
Luck,
Rivers, Mahomes, 
Rodgers
Wentz,
Newton, Brees
Goff,

I think I'm being pretty liberal in use of the term elite in this eval.....

And yet leaving Wilson, Cousins, and Ryan off feels harsh as well. It seems like it's much more of a league of haves and have nots than normal.

(10-31-2018, 09:11 PM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-31-2018, 08:08 PM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ]It did work, but the team should have realized that was virtually the peak of the crest for their wave outcomes. Extremely lucky health, unsustainable number of sacks/turnovers/D TDs, Bortles 18:0 red zone TD:INT ratio... There was almost zero chance that doubling down on what worked last year was going to produce the same results.

Yeah that's what I mean by taking it in a vaccum. If it was a 1 year endeavour, they did great. Unfortunately that's not how they should be judged.

So if it's a bad 1 year then it's fine to judge it, but if it's a good one year then it's not.

Rodgers, Brady, Brees.

Those are the only elite QBs in the NFL.

(10-31-2018, 10:36 PM)JagFan81 Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-31-2018, 10:01 PM)nate Wrote: [ -> ]Andy Reid looks like a genius for Mahomes right now....but he had some busts along the way, including at the QB position like Kevin Kolb.

Same can be said for O'brien and every other team in the league, including the Pats.  Every QB whisperer has a name or two he'd like to bury as well.

Completely agree. QB's are judging so ruthlessly, one bad year and they are in trouble. Take Bortles second season or last year, he looked good played Well, made some mistakes yes but didn't look a bust. Same with Derek Carr, when he took Oakland to the playoffs, he was the new prototype, now he may be on his way out. Prescott at Dallas went 13-3 and Dallas looked to have bagged a franchise QB in the 4th but now he is getting blamed for Dallas. 

Here's just a quick survey, here's every starting QB in the league, how many do you guys rate as a elite QB.

Flacco, Dalton, Roethlisberger, Mayfield
Brady, Josh Allen, Darnold, Tannehill
Luck, Watson, Bortles, Mariotta
Rivers, Carr, Mahomes, Keenum
Rodgers, Stafford, Trubisky, Cousins
Wentz, Prescott, Smith, Manning
Newton, Brees, Ryan, Winston
Wilson, Goff, Jimmy G, Rosen

Elite
Brady
Rodgers
Brees
Roethlisberger

Showing potential to be possibly be elite in the future
Mahomes
Watson
Wentz
Goff

Very good, but not quite elite
Rivers
Stafford
Cousins
Ryan
Wilson
Luck


I'd take any QB in this range and these groups cover nearly half the NFL.

(10-31-2018, 07:56 PM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-31-2018, 01:06 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]Drafting a QB is a complete crapshoot.

How many GMs or coaches do you actually trust? Everyone has had their fair share of misses at QB.

While it is very true that QB is the hardest position to select correctly, how many GMs miss on their first try and are given a second attempt? Very, very few.

Though Dave Caldwell certainly has made his share of good to great draft selections,  the Blake Bortles selection and his overall track record in Round 1 stand out.  That much more with the Jaguars having several picks in the top 5 and not getting close to the desired results with the majority of these premium picks.  I have no idea how Shad Khan and Tom Coughlin are going to proceed.  But on the surface,  it feels like a situation Coughlin should hire someone in the current role that Caldwell is in.

(11-01-2018, 12:16 AM)D6 Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-31-2018, 07:56 PM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ]While it is very true that QB is the hardest position to select correctly, how many GMs miss on their first try and are given a second attempt? Very, very few.

Though Dave Caldwell certainly has made his share of good to great draft selections,  the Blake Bortles selection and his overall track record in Round 1 stand out.  That much more with the Jaguars having several picks in the top 5 and not getting close to the desired results with the majority of these premium picks.  I have no idea how Shad Khan and Tom Coughlin are going to proceed.  But on the surface,  it feels like a situation Coughlin should hire someone in the current role that Caldwell is in.

Replacing Caldwell would make a great deal of sense, especially if the story that Coughlin was ready to move on from Bortles but Caldwell talked him out of it is true. I don't think Caldwell's tenure will be ended this offseason, though. I think he, like everyone else, will be given a pass for this season because of an AFC Championship Game appearance last year.

Something else plays into it as well. Our GM does not have final say on roster decisions. Coughlin does, and he uses it. This means that if a guy we like is under contract with another team, we can't forcibly hire him like we could someone who would be given final say. That severely cuts into the pool of available candidates for us. Unless we plan on bringing in a guy like Jerry Reese who is currently unemployed, we would have a hard time landing a candidate we want. Given that limitation, it's entirely possible that Caldwell gets Bortled back into the job. It's not that he's particularly good at it; it's just that we can't get our hands on anyone better.

(11-01-2018, 12:33 AM)TJBender Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-01-2018, 12:16 AM)D6 Wrote: [ -> ]Though Dave Caldwell certainly has made his share of good to great draft selections,  the Blake Bortles selection and his overall track record in Round 1 stand out.  That much more with the Jaguars having several picks in the top 5 and not getting close to the desired results with the majority of these premium picks.  I have no idea how Shad Khan and Tom Coughlin are going to proceed.  But on the surface,  it feels like a situation Coughlin should hire someone in the current role that Caldwell is in.

Replacing Caldwell would make a great deal of sense, especially if the story that Coughlin was ready to move on from Bortles but Caldwell talked him out of it is true. I don't think Caldwell's tenure will be ended this offseason, though. I think he, like everyone else, will be given a pass for this season because of an AFC Championship Game appearance last year.

Something else plays into it as well. Our GM does not have final say on roster decisions. Coughlin does, and he uses it. This means that if a guy we like is under contract with another team, we can't forcibly hire him like we could someone who would be given final say. That severely cuts into the pool of available candidates for us. Unless we plan on bringing in a guy like Jerry Reese who is currently unemployed, we would have a hard time landing a candidate we want. Given that limitation, it's entirely possible that Caldwell gets Bortled back into the job. It's not that he's particularly good at it; it's just that we can't get our hands on anyone better.

One thought in particular that comes to mind is their might be someone in the Jaguars Current Front Office who has demonstrated that he's highly skilled at player talent evaluation and has a number of the other skills to be a successful NFL GM.  If the Jaguars have an in-house option along these lines,   at the very least Shad Khan and Tom Coughlin should discuss whether its best to promote him to Caldwell's position.

(10-31-2018, 11:27 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-31-2018, 10:36 PM)JagFan81 Wrote: [ -> ]Completely agree. QB's are judging so ruthlessly, one bad year and they are in trouble. Take Bortles second season or last year, he looked good played Well, made some mistakes yes but didn't look a bust. Same with Derek Carr, when he took Oakland to the playoffs, he was the new prototype, now he may be on his way out. Prescott at Dallas went 13-3 and Dallas looked to have bagged a franchise QB in the 4th but now he is getting blamed for Dallas. 

Here's just a quick survey, here's every starting QB in the league, how many do you guys rate as a elite QB.

Flacco, Dalton, Roethlisberger, Mayfield
Brady, Josh Allen, Darnold, Tannehill
Luck, Watson, Bortles, Mariotta
Rivers, Carr, Mahomes, Keenum
Rodgers, Stafford, Trubisky, Cousins
Wentz, Prescott, Smith, Manning
Newton, Brees, Ryan, Winston
Wilson, Goff, Jimmy G, Rosen

Elite
Brady
Rodgers
Brees
Roethlisberger

Showing potential to be possibly be elite in the future
Mahomes
Watson
Wentz
Goff

Very good, but not quite elite
Rivers
Stafford
Cousins
Ryan
Wilson
Luck
Newton

I'd take any QB in this range and these groups cover nearly half the NFL.

I’d take Newton over Cousins or Stafford, so I think he belongs on the third list.

(10-31-2018, 11:27 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-31-2018, 10:36 PM)JagFan81 Wrote: [ -> ]Completely agree. QB's are judging so ruthlessly, one bad year and they are in trouble. Take Bortles second season or last year, he looked good played Well, made some mistakes yes but didn't look a bust. Same with Derek Carr, when he took Oakland to the playoffs, he was the new prototype, now he may be on his way out. Prescott at Dallas went 13-3 and Dallas looked to have bagged a franchise QB in the 4th but now he is getting blamed for Dallas. 

Here's just a quick survey, here's every starting QB in the league, how many do you guys rate as a elite QB.

Flacco, Dalton, Roethlisberger, Mayfield
Brady, Josh Allen, Darnold, Tannehill
Luck, Watson, Bortles, Mariotta
Rivers, Carr, Mahomes, Keenum
Rodgers, Stafford, Trubisky, Cousins
Wentz, Prescott, Smith, Manning
Newton, Brees, Ryan, Winston
Wilson, Goff, Jimmy G, Rosen

Elite
Brady
Rodgers
Brees
Roethlisberger

Showing potential to be possibly be elite in the future
Mahomes
Watson
Wentz
Goff

Very good, but not quite elite
Rivers
Stafford
Cousins
Ryan
Wilson
Luck


I'd take any QB in this range and these groups cover nearly half the NFL.

Yeah I would too any of them is better then what we got.

(10-31-2018, 11:27 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-31-2018, 10:36 PM)JagFan81 Wrote: [ -> ]Completely agree. QB's are judging so ruthlessly, one bad year and they are in trouble. Take Bortles second season or last year, he looked good played Well, made some mistakes yes but didn't look a bust. Same with Derek Carr, when he took Oakland to the playoffs, he was the new prototype, now he may be on his way out. Prescott at Dallas went 13-3 and Dallas looked to have bagged a franchise QB in the 4th but now he is getting blamed for Dallas. 

Here's just a quick survey, here's every starting QB in the league, how many do you guys rate as a elite QB.

Flacco, Dalton, Roethlisberger, Mayfield
Brady, Josh Allen, Darnold, Tannehill
Luck, Watson, Bortles, Mariotta
Rivers, Carr, Mahomes, Keenum
Rodgers, Stafford, Trubisky, Cousins
Wentz, Prescott, Smith, Manning
Newton, Brees, Ryan, Winston
Wilson, Goff, Jimmy G, Rosen

Elite
Brady
Rodgers
Brees
Roethlisberger

Showing potential to be possibly be elite in the future
Mahomes
Watson
Wentz
Goff

Very good, but not quite elite
Rivers
Stafford
Cousins
Ryan
Wilson
Luck


I'd take any QB in this range and these groups cover nearly half the NFL.

Am I the only one here who kinda likes Dalton? I don't think he will ever be elite but the guy is pretty darn steady.

(11-01-2018, 09:46 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-31-2018, 11:27 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]Elite
Brady
Rodgers
Brees
Roethlisberger

Showing potential to be possibly be elite in the future
Mahomes
Watson
Wentz
Goff

Very good, but not quite elite
Rivers
Stafford
Cousins
Ryan
Wilson
Luck


I'd take any QB in this range and these groups cover nearly half the NFL.

Am I the only one here who kinda likes Dalton? I don't think he will ever be elite but the guy is pretty darn steady.

I wanted Kerrigan in the first and Dalton in the second in that draft.

(11-01-2018, 09:46 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-31-2018, 11:27 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]Elite
Brady
Rodgers
Brees
Roethlisberger

Showing potential to be possibly be elite in the future
Mahomes
Watson
Wentz
Goff

Very good, but not quite elite
Rivers
Stafford
Cousins
Ryan
Wilson
Luck


I'd take any QB in this range and these groups cover nearly half the NFL.

Am I the only one here who kinda likes Dalton? I don't think he will ever be elite but the guy is pretty darn steady.

Nah I like Dalton. He definitely has some short comings but every QB has weaknesses or stuff he doesn't do so well, or that "monkey on his back".

Also not sure how OLine can say Big Ben is elite but Rivers is not...
but everyones got their own list...

our o line sucks. no qb would be good here. blake has good feet and awareness but he’s going back to his old ways of not trusting his linemen.

(10-31-2018, 11:27 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-31-2018, 10:36 PM)JagFan81 Wrote: [ -> ]Completely agree. QB's are judging so ruthlessly, one bad year and they are in trouble. Take Bortles second season or last year, he looked good played Well, made some mistakes yes but didn't look a bust. Same with Derek Carr, when he took Oakland to the playoffs, he was the new prototype, now he may be on his way out. Prescott at Dallas went 13-3 and Dallas looked to have bagged a franchise QB in the 4th but now he is getting blamed for Dallas. 

Here's just a quick survey, here's every starting QB in the league, how many do you guys rate as a elite QB.

Flacco, Dalton, Roethlisberger, Mayfield
Brady, Josh Allen, Darnold, Tannehill
Luck, Watson, Bortles, Mariotta
Rivers, Carr, Mahomes, Keenum
Rodgers, Stafford, Trubisky, Cousins
Wentz, Prescott, Smith, Manning
Newton, Brees, Ryan, Winston
Wilson, Goff, Jimmy G, Rosen

Elite
Brady
Rodgers
Brees
Roethlisberger

Showing potential to be possibly be elite in the future
Mahomes
Watson
Wentz
Goff

Very good, but not quite elite
Rivers
Stafford
Cousins
Ryan
Wilson
Luck


I'd take any QB in this range and these groups cover nearly half the NFL

Thanks guys

I think this is pretty accurate, I'd put Newton in the very good list. He's got a lot better the last few seasons. I also like Dalton, got my fingers burned a few times backing the Red Rocket but he's got talent, just the zero playoff wins.

Then there are guys like Carr and Prescott who are up and down but not quite at the level of the others.

Dalton has started off very well like this several times before. For some reason, I suspect his arm is simply not quite strong enough, once winter comes and the AFC North turns bitter cold and windy he always falls off.