Kessler may have the weakest arm in the NFL. Simple ~10 yard throws are noticeably slow when he lets them go.
The very first time he came in a few weeks ago it was a GLARING difference.
But at least they are somewhat accurate.
(12-09-2018, 10:57 AM)JagJohn Wrote: [ -> ] (12-09-2018, 10:46 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]Agreed. It's not like he has a huge body of work in which to build upon, either. He started 8 games for another bad team and then rode the pine for a year. He needs time to develop. As others have stated, he'll make a good bridge QB until a solid starter can be found.
Yeah I like him to be our bridge QB next year ahead of a rookie. At beyond-our-wildest-dreams best we could have a Brees-Rivers situation, at worst we get an adequate and, importantly, cheap placeholder to play until the rookie is ready.
I would also like to see him as our bridge quarterback next season. He may not have the strongest arm, but I believe he can be effective if the offensive line is healthy and they get back Seferian-Jenkins, Lee, Chark and an additional receiver. This would give the rookie quarterback time to develop rather than rush him into being the starter when not yet ready.
Personally - I don't think Kessler really needs any major caveats in his evaluation. He's got some experience. He may not be fully developed, but he ought to be darn close to it by now.
I also wouldn't say he has a weak arm necessarily, but his velocity is certainly nothing spectacular. He seems to be able to make up for the velocity issue with decent accuracy and anticipation though. You're not going to see him throwing it 40 yards on a rope like a Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen type, but he's got a manageable toolbox to work with.
Tom Brady has a weak arm in my opinion. Hes still the GOAT. Not everyone is going to zip it like Favre. What matters is his ability to accurately throw the ball, which I'm not sure if it's because I'm so used to watching Bortles, but he has demonstrated beautifully. I also think his lack of "risk taking" has more to do with the fact that the coaches are putting way too much emphasis on not turning the ball over. I agree that you should play it safe if you have a two possession lead, but this coaching staff is worried about turnovers when were in major deficits. Its infuriating at times, the best offenses take a lot of risks. Mahomes threw two picks against us, but didn't seem to slow them down much. Of course that'd be a different game with different redzone plays called on the Jags part.
I honestly think the biggest knock on Kessler is his size. He seems to be holding up so far, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get injured behind this line. Especially because he seems to struggle getting away from pressure.
As far as his future with the team, I think he's probably backup quality, but could develope into one of the better ones. Looks like the way the NFL is evolving, a QB that can extend a play with his legs AND accurately deliver the ball is what we should be looking for. A trait Kessler hasn't demonstrated very sell.
(12-09-2018, 10:47 AM)JagJohn Wrote: [ -> ] (12-09-2018, 10:40 AM)SignMeUpAtQB Wrote: [ -> ]I think he doesnt trust it then, or his inability to read routes and move in the pocket prevents him from using it. Im not saying he is terrible, but I dont think he has a very strong arm.
Bottom line is he is a game manager with low risk/low reward. If he can gain confidence and take more risks im all for it, but he has never been that type of QB. Idk if that is for lack of skill/strength or just how he understands the game. Wasnt there a chart posted on the board comparing Kessler to Bortles that showed almost no deep throws from Kessler?
This is pretty much what I'm talking about. "Bottom line" and "never been that type of QB" are not fair things to say about a 25 year old QB with 10 career starts. He is clearly still developing as a player, we shouldn't rush to judge him as a finished product.
I wrote that he has never been that type of QB in regards to his college years. His thing was always to move the ball efficiently and not to turn it over, so pretty much what he is known for right now (conservative). That is also why I said that if he gains more confidence or somehow starts taking more risks, id be happy, but even with his small sample size in the NFL it is fairly obvious that he is a QB that values the safer throw over what might be a bigger play at this point in his career. Idk how much a 25 yo can really develop, surely there is a routine and experience that can help with certain improvements, but idk how much the understanding and philosophy can be drastically changed. What is important to consider is our coaching team's gameplan, i doubt that we would see Kessler become a more aggressive QB under Marrone and this whole "run first" offense. I hope that TC recognizes that we need a more pass heavy scheme and Marrone needs to start changing his ways quick if he wants to be the guy.
(12-09-2018, 04:51 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]Personally - I don't think Kessler really needs any major caveats in his evaluation. He's got some experience. He may not be fully developed, but he ought to be darn close to it by now.
I also wouldn't say he has a weak arm necessarily, but his velocity is certainly nothing spectacular. He seems to be able to make up for the velocity issue with decent accuracy and anticipation though. You're not going to see him throwing it 40 yards on a rope like a Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen type, but he's got a manageable toolbox to work with.
I disagree to be honest, I think there definitely should be somewhat of a caveat in this case. He is playing the position with the biggest mental element in the whole sport, by far. He has yet to experience a stable and steady offseason in the NFL preparing as a starter. You can't underestimate how important game experience is at the position, and once again, he has only started 10 games... It's fair enough if you think his ceiling is capped for some reason, but to suggest he doesn't have the potential to improve is disingenuous in my opinion. Bortles, for example, is unfortunately a book that has almost been fully written at this stage, we've seen more than enough to know what he is and to know what he never will be. Kessler, on the other hand, is still writing the first chapter.
(12-10-2018, 06:52 AM)SignMeUpAtQB Wrote: [ -> ] (12-09-2018, 10:47 AM)JagJohn Wrote: [ -> ]This is pretty much what I'm talking about. "Bottom line" and "never been that type of QB" are not fair things to say about a 25 year old QB with 10 career starts. He is clearly still developing as a player, we shouldn't rush to judge him as a finished product.
I wrote that he has never been that type of QB in regards to his college years. His thing was always to move the ball efficiently and not to turn it over, so pretty much what he is known for right now (conservative). That is also why I said that if he gains more confidence or somehow starts taking more risks, id be happy, but even with his small sample size in the NFL it is fairly obvious that he is a QB that values the safer throw over what might be a bigger play at this point in his career. Idk how much a 25 yo can really develop, surely there is a routine and experience that can help with certain improvements, but idk how much the understanding and philosophy can be drastically changed. What is important to consider is our coaching team's gameplan, i doubt that we would see Kessler become a more aggressive QB under Marrone and this whole "run first" offense. I hope that TC recognizes that we need a more pass heavy scheme and Marrone needs to start changing his ways quick if he wants to be the guy.
TC is all about balance and more balance. He doesn't mind throwing it downfield but an ideal day would be 30 runs and 30 passes regardless of score.
Arm strength just boils down to a guy that can throw 80 yards vs. a guy that can throw 60-65. The game isn't won like that. It can help get a ball in to a tight window a fraction of a second faster but that's about it. I'd rather look at a guy that knows where his receivers are going and can anticipate throws. Ball placement and awareness wins out in the NFL.
(12-10-2018, 08:27 AM)JagJohn Wrote: [ -> ] (12-09-2018, 04:51 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]Personally - I don't think Kessler really needs any major caveats in his evaluation. He's got some experience. He may not be fully developed, but he ought to be darn close to it by now.
I also wouldn't say he has a weak arm necessarily, but his velocity is certainly nothing spectacular. He seems to be able to make up for the velocity issue with decent accuracy and anticipation though. You're not going to see him throwing it 40 yards on a rope like a Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen type, but he's got a manageable toolbox to work with.
I disagree to be honest, I think there definitely should be somewhat of a caveat in this case. He is playing the position with the biggest mental element in the whole sport, by far. He has yet to experience a stable and steady offseason in the NFL preparing as a starter. You can't underestimate how important game experience is at the position, and once again, he has only started 10 games... It's fair enough if you think his ceiling is capped for some reason, but to suggest he doesn't have the potential to improve is disingenuous in my opinion. Bortles, for example, is unfortunately a book that has almost been fully written at this stage, we've seen more than enough to know what he is and to know what he never will be. Kessler, on the other hand, is still writing the first chapter.
I definitely don't think he has zero potential to improve. I think that we shouldn't be looking for improvement anywhere near that improvement expected from a rookie moving into his second year, but rather that of a young vet learning a system.
I think the two degrees of improvement there ^ are pretty disparate.
He's had three offseasons under Hue Jackson (albeit with three different QB coaches), he's played significant time in ten NFL contests - plenty more preseason games and logged plenty of time in the film room, with the scout team , and holding clipboards on the sideline. All that stuff adds up to being far more comfortable and prepared than a rookie.
I think where he is in development does not at all equate to "essentially his rookie season." Not by quite a long shot.
He can get better - sure - but I'd not look at him as a rookie with vast potential.
Let's begin the correct evaluation now..................(30 seconds of viewing his tape later)..........................Okay, evaluation is complete. He sucks.
I don't think he has huge arm strength but he's definitely got arm placement. He can put the ball right where he needs to. Look at Jeff George. He had a bazooka and washed out after a few years. Give me a guy that will protect the ball, not turn it over, move the chains and keep the D off the field. I think he can do that while we groom the "kid".
if throwing ropes is a weak arm, i'll take it
Good arm and accuracy though it seems like he will just throw to guys who aren't open a little too much. No mobility and is not strong with the football when tackled.
(12-09-2018, 04:31 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote: [ -> ]weak arm?
http://www.nfl.com/videos/jacksonville-j...r-35-yards
If the best example of his arm strength is a ball that doesnt travel 40 yards in which he puts a ton of air under it then that isnt a great sign
I do think arm strength can be overrated. But it sure can make up for a lot of other weaknesses! Just like all the other attributes of a QB: ability to read defenses, accuracy, pocket awareness, mobility, height, etc.... the more the better. But the weaker you are in any area, the stronger you have to be somewhere else to make up for it. A guy with a pop gun arm better have phenomenal accuracy, ability to read defenses, etc... It's not a surprise Kessler has good accuracy. Because with his arm strength, if he wasn't accurate, he wouldn't sniff the league.
Kessler evaluation..better draft a QB in the first round in a division with Watson, Luck and Mariota.
(12-10-2018, 09:56 PM)rfc17 Wrote: [ -> ] (12-09-2018, 04:31 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote: [ -> ]weak arm?
http://www.nfl.com/videos/jacksonville-j...r-35-yards
If the best example of his arm strength is a ball that doesnt travel 40 yards in which he puts a ton of air under it then that isnt a great sign
I do think arm strength can be overrated. But it sure can make up for a lot of other weaknesses! Just like all the other attributes of a QB: ability to read defenses, accuracy, pocket awareness, mobility, height, etc.... the more the better. But the weaker you are in any area, the stronger you have to be somewhere else to make up for it. A guy with a pop gun arm better have phenomenal accuracy, ability to read defenses, etc... It's not a surprise Kessler has good accuracy. Because with his arm strength, if he wasn't accurate, he wouldn't sniff the league.
He had to drop the ball into the receiver like that because of the defensive back. If he had tried to force it, that would have been an INT. That's probably one of the biggest difference between Kessler and Bortles, recognizing the coverage and putting the ball where it needs to be.
You're right. But that isn't an illustration of arm strength.
(12-11-2018, 07:03 AM)rfc17 Wrote: [ -> ]You're right. But that isn't an illustration of arm strength.
Who cares about arm strength?
I’ve never seen Blake just launch a ball 60 yards down field.
Why in the world are we evaluating Kessler? He never has been, or never will be, 'the answer' for any team at QB. The guy is a career backup and will continue to be so.
The only thing they might be evaluating him for, is being a placeholder for whomever we draft next year.