Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Fournette is a decent back. Run him when needed next year and forget about it after next year

(01-04-2020, 10:11 AM)Rico Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-04-2020, 10:08 AM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ]Probably would make more sense to account for how often defenders get penetration rather than how many times they're hit.

Why that way, you ask? Because you're suggesting rewarding Fournette for failing to ever make anyone miss while those running backs that make his miss don't get credit for that.

Statistical analysis models can be complex if you want to arrive at any kind of useful result. Really, though, for a guy like Fournette, just the standard deviation of his average run is probably enough to tell us a lot about how inconsistent he is.

Do you even watch the games?  There have been numerous carries where Houdini couldn't make people miss.  I'm totally baffled at how people think he can magically make somebody miss when the opposing DL is pretty much in his face when he touches the ball.  And I would go as far as saying they far outnumber the long runs.  Guess people are going to see what they want to see whey they don't like a player.

Overdrafted, yes.  Bust, no.  Could have a better RB.  Yes.  But some people just love to blow things out of proportion with this guy.

You wrote a lot there to contribute nothing to a discussion about statistical analysis.

(01-04-2020, 10:56 AM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-04-2020, 10:11 AM)Rico Wrote: [ -> ]Do you even watch the games?  There have been numerous carries where Houdini couldn't make people miss.  I'm totally baffled at how people think he can magically make somebody miss when the opposing DL is pretty much in his face when he touches the ball.  And I would go as far as saying they far outnumber the long runs.  Guess people are going to see what they want to see whey they don't like a player.

Overdrafted, yes.  Bust, no.  Could have a better RB.  Yes.  But some people just love to blow things out of proportion with this guy.

You wrote a lot there to contribute nothing to a discussion about statistical analysis.

Eye test. You don't have to be Tony Khan with an analysis team to see that Fournette is physically gifted.

He was over drafted for sure. But he's not a bust by any means. Trent Richardson was a bust.

You can see the difference there without going down a rabbit hole of data and Zapruder Film's of runningback's on tape.

Fournette was heavily loaded this year. We had virtually no rotation for him. And the play calling at times was not only brutally predictable but also setback with weak play along the offensive line.

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Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

(01-04-2020, 11:02 AM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-04-2020, 10:56 AM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ]You wrote a lot there to contribute nothing to a discussion about statistical analysis.

Eye test. You don't have to be Tony Khan with an analysis team to see that Fournette is physically gifted.

He was over drafted for sure. But he's not a bust by any means. Trent Richardson was a bust.

You can see the difference there without going down a rabbit hole of data and Zapruder Film's of runningback's on tape.

Fournette was heavily loaded this year. We had virtually no rotation for him. And the play calling at times was not only brutally predictable but also setback with weak play along the offensive line.

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It's funny, when I watch him play I see the exact opposite. A guy with slow feet and bad contact balance. He's a massive bust at #4 overall. If your excuse for a top draft pick is the rest of the team needs to play better in order for him to be successful then you just drafted a bust.

(01-04-2020, 10:56 AM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-04-2020, 10:11 AM)Rico Wrote: [ -> ]Do you even watch the games?  There have been numerous carries where Houdini couldn't make people miss.  I'm totally baffled at how people think he can magically make somebody miss when the opposing DL is pretty much in his face when he touches the ball.  And I would go as far as saying they far outnumber the long runs.  Guess people are going to see what they want to see whey they don't like a player.

Overdrafted, yes.  Bust, no.  Could have a better RB.  Yes.  But some people just love to blow things out of proportion with this guy.

You wrote a lot there to contribute nothing to a discussion about statistical analysis.

Translation:

I don't agree with you so you contributed nothing to the discussion.

1,674 all purpose yards and 4.9 yards per touch in 2019.

He was productive any way you slice (contort) it.

He's under contract one more year and I would love to see him become a third down back plus split early down carries.
If Flip or a new OC can get wise and pair him with a scatback in some 2 back sets, things could get interesting.
The best usage we've seen of LF was in Hackett's 2-back sets with Grant. No clue why no one at TIAA bank field hasn't seen that tape and realized the value in that approach.

Didn't want to draft him - don't want to pay him big to stay - called out his balance and agility issues pre-darft - etc, etc.
But I still see he can produce and be effective when used well - and I'd like to get the best out of him in 2020.

(01-04-2020, 11:36 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]1,674 all purpose yards and 4.9 yards per touch in 2019.

He was productive any way you slice (contort) it.

He's under contract one more year and I would love to see him become a third down back plus split early down carries.
If Flip or a new OC can get wise and pair him with a scatback in some 2 back sets, things could get interesting.
The best usage we've seen of LF was in Hackett's 2-back sets with Grant. No clue why no one at TIAA bank field hasn't seen that tape and realized the value in that approach.

Didn't want to draft him - don't want to pay him big to stay - called out his balance and agility issues pre-darft - etc, etc.
But I still see he can produce and be effective when used well - and I'd like to get the best out of him in 2020.

He'll end up platooning with Sony Michel in a year.

We need to bring another RB.

I don't see Fournette staying here, like Ngakoue he thinks he is better than he really is and he is gonna ask for a lot of money.

I expect him to be average in his next contract.

(01-04-2020, 01:09 PM)iHaunting Raven Wrote: [ -> ]We need to bring another RB.

I don't see Fournette staying here, like Ngakoue he thinks he is better than he really is and he is gonna ask for a lot of money.

I expect him to be average in his next contract.

Not quite sure where you're getting this from.  I've seen zero evidence of this.

(01-04-2020, 09:02 AM)p_rushing Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-04-2020, 04:24 AM)Eric1 Wrote: [ -> ]What a terrible way to look at it...

I'm not really a fan of Fournette at all, but you could look at every RB in the league and take away their longest carry of each game and all of their numbers are going to drop...

Yes others will fall, but LF loses more than 1 ypc. You could do further analysis on the data, but would need each run for every RB. A starting RB should be consistent, not relying on long runs to get any yards. I'm sure the mean, median, and mode is skewed but without having all the detailed data, it's a way to quickly show value of LF running the ball. If you can't move the chains because you are under 3 ypc for most carriers, then you can't get a 1st down.

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Saquan Barkley doesn't run consistently but he's still good. His rookie year was one of the biggest boom bust seasons ever recorded. 

Fournettes style is boom bust too but with more consistency involved. That doesn't make them bad players, more so they have more bigger play ability than most RBs.

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https://twitter.com/MichaelKistNFL/statu...61152?s=19

As you can see Fournettes negative run % is in line with guys like Kamara, Mixon, Barkley, Gurley, Gordon , while also having a higher % of 10+ yard runs.

He has the 7th highest % of 1O+ yard runs on this chart

As I've said, not great, but definitely no bust. Some people on this board just don't like him so they'll find any reason to be hyper-critical.

(01-04-2020, 01:28 AM)p_rushing Wrote: [ -> ]You need to look at the stats. It's too complicated to do it on mobile to post each game, but take away his longest carry of each game and his stats look terrible.

He would be at 726 yards for 2.9 ypc. That is a bust. I would rather have a back who picks up yards on every carry, not one who picks up most of his yards on 1 or 2 carries.

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(01-04-2020, 08:13 AM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-04-2020, 04:24 AM)Eric1 Wrote: [ -> ]What a terrible way to look at it...

I'm not really a fan of Fournette at all, but you could look at every RB in the league and take away their longest carry of each game and all of their numbers are going to drop...

It's not terrible, he's just clearly not a statistician able to explain what he's talking about. If you want to get an idea of his consistency you can do things like removing outlier runs and calculating a few things. Ideally you'd want your running back to be consistent in getting good yardage on each run, something like 4, 5, 4, 5, 3, 5, 6 for a 4.5 yard average. Not something like 12, -3, 1, 6, 15, -4 for 4.5 average. The first one helps you get to field goal range, the second one gets you a couple of punts.

The below article touches on the unimportance of a strong running game in the modern NFL, and essentially what a stupid draft selection Fournette was.
https://thepowerrank.com/2014/01/10/whic...-playoffs/

Your method would label Barry Sanders a bust. More than 1/3 of his carries were for a loss. I hated the Fournette pick because I wanted McCaffrey, but he’s not a bust.

I worry less about his talent, because he's proven he's a decent if not outstanding starter, but because I worry that, over time, injuries will shorten his career. This was an anomaly, year wise for him, because he DIDN'T miss a ton of games, despite how much he got played. I was actually impressed with that.

It's unfortunate because his mental change and determination to improve his character has been terrific to see this year. But this league is not a league in which you shell out tons of cash for running backs unless they are blue chip, can't-fail ever-down, every-week, every-season kind of players. I think he could grind out a couple more decent seasons in the coming years but I an concerned about his health in the long run - as I would be with ANY running back on this team.

I rarely use the word bust, I like calling them misses. Not useless, but also not near the best player that could have been taken with that pick. Guys like Fowler, Bortles, and Fournette fall in that group.

I'm just very scared that this FO is going to give Fournette a big money new deal to try to justify themselves, as they have done so often already.

I think like a lot of folks, it’s not that LF sucks, it’s so much missed potential. He runs away from holes when they are there and shuffles his feet instead of getting up to speed. He makes a lot of errors in judgement that leave fans questioning [BLEEP] he’s thinking.

With that said, I loved watching his effort the game he was miced up. He’s a great blocker and has become quite a good target for the Shew. He just lacks some football IQ.

Also, regarding the apparent "lack of a need for a strong running game in the modern NFL"......keep your eyes on this year's playoffs. Most of the teams in the playoffs are very good running teams with some of the most diverse run concepts in the NFL.

A better argument is that you probably shouldn't build your entire offense based on running the ball but you do NEED to have that ability to be a top tier team for the most part. As Belichick says, being able to run effectively out of a variety of formations gives you a big advantage schematically over opponents, even if you choose to pass instead

(01-04-2020, 03:19 PM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]Also, regarding the apparent "lack of a need for a strong running game in the modern NFL"......keep your eyes on this year's playoffs. Most of the teams in the playoffs are very good running teams with some of the most diverse run concepts in the NFL.  

A better argument is that you probably shouldn't build your entire offense based on running the ball but you do NEED to have that ability to be a top tier team for the most part. As Belichick says, being able to run effectively out of a variety of formations gives you a big advantage schematically over opponents, even if you choose to pass instead

100% accurate   ^

(01-04-2020, 02:25 PM)JagNGeorgia Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-04-2020, 01:28 AM)p_rushing Wrote: [ -> ]You need to look at the stats. It's too complicated to do it on mobile to post each game, but take away his longest carry of each game and his stats look terrible.

He would be at 726 yards for 2.9 ypc. That is a bust. I would rather have a back who picks up yards on every carry, not one who picks up most of his yards on 1 or 2 carries.

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(01-04-2020, 08:13 AM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ]It's not terrible, he's just clearly not a statistician able to explain what he's talking about. If you want to get an idea of his consistency you can do things like removing outlier runs and calculating a few things. Ideally you'd want your running back to be consistent in getting good yardage on each run, something like 4, 5, 4, 5, 3, 5, 6 for a 4.5 yard average. Not something like 12, -3, 1, 6, 15, -4 for 4.5 average. The first one helps you get to field goal range, the second one gets you a couple of punts.

The below article touches on the unimportance of a strong running game in the modern NFL, and essentially what a stupid draft selection Fournette was.
https://thepowerrank.com/2014/01/10/whic...-playoffs/

Your method would label Barry Sanders a bust. More than 1/3 of his carries were for a loss. I hated the Fournette pick because I wanted McCaffrey, but he’s not a bust.

I'll tell you what, if Fournette runs for 15,000+ yards in his career I'll take it back.