(07-19-2023, 10:30 PM)JagFanatic24 Wrote: [ -> ]Jamal Agnew has played in 27 total games with the Jaguars, including the playoffs. He has racked up 2,270 all purpose yards and 7 TDs during that span, for a total of 44 points on the scoreboard. And he’s only touched the football in a Jaguars uniform a total of 160 times. That’s an average of 15.5 yards per touch.
Agnew has scored in the following ways:
Rushing TD - 1
Receiving TD - 4
Kickoff return TD - 1
Missed FG return TD - 1
2 point conversion - 1
Oh by the way, he’s only started 2 games at WR during that 25 game span. That is an average of 1.3 points per game. Let me repeat that…he averages 1.3 points per game and he’s only started 2 games at WR for the Jaguars. He scored 4 TDs in 2021 and scored 3 TDs in 2022.
He’s the only return specialist in team history to be voted to the Pro Bowl. Agnew also holds the team AND NFL record for longest return of all-time which is 109 yards on the missed FG vs Arizona.
In the 2022 playoffs Agnew had 14 touches…for 306 yards! 297 of those yards came on 10 returns. 7 of those returns came on kickoff return for 265 yards which is an average of 37.9 yards.
Agnew had two returns of 50 yards or more in 2022. He also had a 63 yard return against the Chiefs in the playoffs.
In week 17 against the Titans in a game that put us in the playoffs with a win, Agnew had a total of 166 yards on 7 touches. That is an average of 23.7 yards per touch.
He scored a TD in that season changing Baltimore game as well. And he also has scored a 2 point conversion for the Jaguars over those 27 games.
This dude is crazy good.
I like Agnew. I think he will likely make the team. However, I don't think he's a lock. I think many of your stats are misleading or at least need some context. There are also some counter stats that present a different story.
To start, you're including 2+ seasons (2 seasons plus playoffs). Stats always sound more impressive when you include multiple seasons as sports fans naturally think in terms of single season stats. For example, 7 touchdowns sounds like something that would be hard to turn away. However, that's over 2+ seasons. I think it's more relevant and meaningful to just look at last year. In 2022, Agnew had 3 touchdowns. It's better than none, but it's also not super impressive and no more than a player such as Jamycal Hasty for example. Heck, James Robinson had 4 touchdowns in a partial season last year. Despite a very low salary, JRob was traded for a late round pick and is now on his fourth team in less than a year. Three touchdowns over the course of a season doesn't necessarily give you job security in the NFL.
The "all purpose yards" stat also sounds impressive on the surface, but most of that is return yardage. Agnew only had 273 receiving/rushing yards in the regular season last year. That actually places him
ninth on the Jaguars in that statistic last year. If they were being honest, I'm guessing many Agnew supporters would be surprised to learn that he ranked so low. Is that offensive contribution worthy of being a top 10 paid player on the team? Is it worth the $4.7 million of cap space that we could save by cutting him? I think those are legitimate question that Baalke will need to answer.
As for special teams, yes, he's good, but again, how much is it worth? Return specialists are not highly valued and are typically drafted on day 3 of the draft. You have to remember that on kickoffs that go into the end zone, you can fair catch it and get it at the 25 yard line. If Agnew catches the ball in the end zone and runs it out to the 20 yard line, sure, he gets credited with "20 all purpose yards", but the reality is that play COSTED us 5 yards. Even if he makes it to the 25 yard line, it's still no benefit. If he makes it to the 30, which is a nice return, it still only really netted us an additional 5 yards of field position and not super significant in the big picture.
I know not all kickoffs go into the end zone and sometimes a return is required. However, the point is that it is easy to gain yards on kickoff returns. It takes time for the other team to run down the field. Many returners obtain nice yardage. Jamal Agnew averaged 26.0 yards per kickoff return last year. For comparison purposes, Jamycal Hasty, who filled in for Agnew during his injury, averaged 24.3 yards per return. That's a difference of only 1.7 yards per return. The Jaguars also signed D'Ernest Johnson this offseason who has return experience. He has averaged 24.8 yards per return in his career which is a difference of only 1.2 yards per return. Assuming he maintained that average and got Agnew's kick returns last year, we're talking about 521 yards compared to 547 yards. Are those 26 yards worth $4.7 million of cap space? Again, I think it's a legitimate question that Baalke will need to decide.
Lastly, you also have to factor in the new kickoff rule. This year, any kickoff can be fair catched and you get the ball at the 25 yard line. I can see many teams de-emphasizing the kick returner role and just taking the ball at the 25. To be fair, I'm guessing that the Jaguars aren't one of those teams as I think Pederson's tendency is to be aggressive and a gambler, but I also can't rule it out as a possibility. The rule does place less emphasis on kick returns. That could make a difference on cut day.
Again, just for the record, I do think Agnew makes the team. I think if they were going to cut him, they already would have done it. However, I don't see him as a lock to make the team. I think he is likely but not a lock. I wouldn't be completely shocked if he was a "surprise cut" this year. (Also, for the record, I find term "surprise cut" to be an oxymoron since I'm stating it as a possibility and therefore not overly surprising, but I digress. Call it a "high profile cut" if you want.)