(04-14-2023, 12:21 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ] (04-14-2023, 11:44 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]I've smashed pretty much every single one I've had with you. As have most others
If by smashed you mean you end up in a drunken stupor babbling to yourself in South Podunk then sure, smashed it is.
Haha, it's like taking candy from a baby. Quickwork
Obviously the draft isn't an exact science and teams sometimes do get lucky with steals in late rounds. However, it is a myth that it is super easy to find a top running back in later rounds. Go pull up a listing of the top 8 running backs last year in terms of total yards. Guess where those eight players were drafted. Four in the first round and four in the second round. To be fair, the 9th and 10th ranked rushers were Day 3 picks, but you could probably find that at many positions. Even quarterback, the most premium of premium positions, had 2 players originally selected on Day 3 (Cousins in the 4th and Brady in the 6th round) in the top 10 in passing yards last year. It doesn't mean you should way until Day 3 to draft your starting quarterback.
If it's a need and you really like the player, I'm fine with a running back in the late 1st round.
(04-14-2023, 12:29 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ] (04-14-2023, 12:21 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]If by smashed you mean you end up in a drunken stupor babbling to yourself in South Podunk then sure, smashed it is.
Haha, it's like taking candy from a baby. Quickwork
Should of tried something else skipper.
(04-14-2023, 12:32 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ]Obviously the draft isn't an exact science and teams sometimes do get lucky with steals in late rounds. However, it is a myth that it is super easy to find a top running back in later rounds. Go pull up a listing of the top 8 running backs last year in terms of total yards. Guess where those eight players were drafted. Four in the first round and four in the second round. To be fair, the 9th and 10th ranked rushers were Day 3 picks, but you could probably find that at many positions. Even quarterback, the most premium of premium positions, had 2 players originally selected on Day 3 (Cousins in the 4th and Brady in the 6th round) in the top 10 in passing yards last year. It doesn't mean you should way until Day 3 to draft your starting quarterback.
If it's a need and you really like the player, I'm fine with a running back in the late 1st round.
When has this been asserted?
It's not "super easy." No one has said that.
It's just that around half of the early round RBs are either busts or just "solid" players.
The odds of finding a good one later aren't much worse than that, but cost you less capital to gamble.
It's a trade off many GMs are willing to make and lots of folks consider that wiser - unless your team is in luxury pick mode and can afford a devalued position in the first round.
(04-14-2023, 12:32 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ]Obviously the draft isn't an exact science and teams sometimes do get lucky with steals in late rounds. However, it is a myth that it is super easy to find a top running back in later rounds. Go pull up a listing of the top 8 running backs last year in terms of total yards. Guess where those eight players were drafted. Four in the first round and four in the second round. To be fair, the 9th and 10th ranked rushers were Day 3 picks, but you could probably find that at many positions. Even quarterback, the most premium of premium positions, had 2 players originally selected on Day 3 (Cousins in the 4th and Brady in the 6th round) in the top 10 in passing yards last year. It doesn't mean you should way until Day 3 to draft your starting quarterback.
If it's a need and you really like the player, I'm fine with a running back in the late 1st round.
I think if you compare the need for an RB to the need for a QB, OT, or a DE, DT, or a WR, TE, or CB and you don't need any of those other positions then you take the RB in Round 1. By the standard of the top 10 in total yards, how did their teams fare? My impression is that round 1 RBs don't contribute significantly to improving the W/L records of their teams.
(04-14-2023, 12:36 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (04-14-2023, 12:32 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ]Obviously the draft isn't an exact science and teams sometimes do get lucky with steals in late rounds. However, it is a myth that it is super easy to find a top running back in later rounds. Go pull up a listing of the top 8 running backs last year in terms of total yards. Guess where those eight players were drafted. Four in the first round and four in the second round. To be fair, the 9th and 10th ranked rushers were Day 3 picks, but you could probably find that at many positions. Even quarterback, the most premium of premium positions, had 2 players originally selected on Day 3 (Cousins in the 4th and Brady in the 6th round) in the top 10 in passing yards last year. It doesn't mean you should way until Day 3 to draft your starting quarterback.
If it's a need and you really like the player, I'm fine with a running back in the late 1st round.
When has this been asserted?
It's not "super easy." No one has said that.
It's just that around half of the early round RBs are either busts or just "solid" players.
The odds of finding a good one later aren't much worse than that, but cost you less capital to gamble.
It's a trade off many GMs are willing to make and lots of folks consider that wiser - unless your team is in luxury pick mode and can afford a devalued position in the first round.
That's my whole point, the great teams aren't great because they have great running backs and great running backs don't make bad teams great. Considering those points the value and risk in picking one in the 1st round doesn't justify the pick IMO.
(04-14-2023, 12:32 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ]Obviously the draft isn't an exact science and teams sometimes do get lucky with steals in late rounds. However, it is a myth that it is super easy to find a top running back in later rounds. Go pull up a listing of the top 8 running backs last year in terms of total yards. Guess where those eight players were drafted. Four in the first round and four in the second round. To be fair, the 9th and 10th ranked rushers were Day 3 picks, but you could probably find that at many positions. Even quarterback, the most premium of premium positions, had 2 players originally selected on Day 3 (Cousins in the 4th and Brady in the 6th round) in the top 10 in passing yards last year. It doesn't mean you should way until Day 3 to draft your starting quarterback.
If it's a need and you really like the player, I'm fine with a running back in the late 1st round.
You can't just look at one year though as a baseline.
In 2021, the top 10 rushers had 2 1st rounders, 5 2nd rounders, 2 3rd rounders and a 6th rounder.
in 2020, the top 10 rushers had 3 1st rounders (1 being Lamar lol). 4 2nd rounders, 1 3rd rounder, 1 5th and 1 UDFA (James Robinson).
If anything, it's quite clear that the sweet spot for RBs seems to be the 2nd round.
(04-14-2023, 02:49 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/PFF_Brad/status/1646...59973?s=20
1000% would do a 3rd rounder for Budda or possibly 2nd rounder.
Would absolutely love it. Everyone wants to draft a nickel back in the 3rd so why not take one of the best and most versatile in the league, having said all that I don’t see it happening
(04-14-2023, 02:53 PM)Craigukjag Wrote: [ -> ] (04-14-2023, 02:49 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/PFF_Brad/status/1646...59973?s=20
1000% would do a 3rd rounder for Budda or possibly 2nd rounder.
Would absolutely love it. Everyone wants to draft a nickel back in the 3rd so why not take one of the best and most versatile in the league, having said all that I don’t see it happening
Apparently the Jags are talking about it internally (if you believe some of people who have connections in the building.)
I would fork over a 4th and 6th. I don't want to give up a 3rd RD pick for him. Not in this class where we need to grab at least another TE and OT.
(04-14-2023, 03:09 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]I would fork over a 4th and 6th. I don't want to give up a 3rd RD pick for him. Not in this class where we need to grab at least another TE and OT.
You said in the nickel thread you’d use a 3rd on Riley moss, curious why you’d use one on a rookie and not one of the most versatile backs in the league and still only 27
(04-14-2023, 03:27 PM)Craigukjag Wrote: [ -> ] (04-14-2023, 03:09 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]I would fork over a 4th and 6th. I don't want to give up a 3rd RD pick for him. Not in this class where we need to grab at least another TE and OT.
You said in the nickel thread you’d use a 3rd on Riley moss, curious why you’d use one on a rookie and not one of the most versatile backs in the league and still only 27
I said the following:
"
This is my same exact stance and why I voted for the 3rd RD option at the minimum. I could see Baalke coming back up in this draft with the amount of 4th and 6th RD selections he has. I think Sydney Brown, Garrett Williams, Riley Moss and Mekhi Blackmon should be considered as candidates."
I would be willing to TRADE up into RD3 to get a CB using a 4th and 6th RD selection. If I can land Baker with a 4th and 6th without sacrificing a 3rd RD pick? I am going that route. We still have severe depth concerns at TE and along the offensive line. We still need depth at the DE positions to make up for the loss of overall snaps between Smoot and Key.
Oh if he can be got for a 4th n 6th we’d all take that deal, but if it was to take a 3rd I’d be good with it. It allows us to go heavy on the lines. Knowing we’ve got a star at arguably our weakest spot going into next season
(04-14-2023, 03:27 PM)Craigukjag Wrote: [ -> ] (04-14-2023, 03:09 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]I would fork over a 4th and 6th. I don't want to give up a 3rd RD pick for him. Not in this class where we need to grab at least another TE and OT.
You said in the nickel thread you’d use a 3rd on Riley moss, curious why you’d use one on a rookie and not one of the most versatile backs in the league and still only 27
Very expensive. No cheap rookie deal with that alternative. Would need a serious contract restructure and could risk putting us up against the cap in future years. If Baker is an All-Pro level talent, it might be worth it. Get just one All-Pro at all three levels of the defense, and you have the core of one of the best defenses in the league and could start pushing talk towards one of the all time great level D's - that's what a lot of those great, great defenses often had in common anyways.
Still best if your All-Pros are home-grown though.
(04-14-2023, 04:00 PM)Craigukjag Wrote: [ -> ]Oh if he can be got for a 4th n 6th we’d all take that deal, but if it was to take a 3rd I’d be good with it. It allows us to go heavy on the lines. Knowing we’ve got a star at arguably our weakest spot going into next season
A 4th and a 6th I think is relatively fair. Especially for an Arizona team that's clearly looking to sell and rebuild. I just hate the idea of forking over the 88th pick in this class. Where I know it's deep enough to where we can easily get a starting caliber TE and OT/OG to help the offense out.
I would offer pick's 121 & 185. Still leaves me picks 127, 202 & 208 to potentially package back up to get inside the top 100 - 150 again if there's a guy that slipped within my reach to add another starter.
Landing Baker, and four starters in this draft would be not only massive but needed for all of the contracts up for expiration in 2024/2025. Give me a solid edge rusher, a promising tackle/guard, a promising tight end and another receiver or edge rusher + Baker and it's a good draft class.
(04-14-2023, 05:00 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ] (04-14-2023, 04:00 PM)Craigukjag Wrote: [ -> ]Oh if he can be got for a 4th n 6th we’d all take that deal, but if it was to take a 3rd I’d be good with it. It allows us to go heavy on the lines. Knowing we’ve got a star at arguably our weakest spot going into next season
A 4th and a 6th I think is relatively fair. Especially for an Arizona team that's clearly looking to sell and rebuild. I just hate the idea of forking over the 88th pick in this class. Where I know it's deep enough to where we can easily get a starting caliber TE and OT/OG to help the offense out.
I would offer pick's 121 & 185. Still leaves me picks 127, 202 & 208 to potentially package back up to get inside the top 100 - 150 again if there's a guy that slipped within my reach to add another starter.
Landing Baker, and four starters in this draft would be not only massive but needed for all of the contracts up for expiration in 2024/2025. Give me a solid edge rusher, a promising tackle/guard, a promising tight end and another receiver or edge rusher + Baker and it's a good draft class.
Agreed, pull the trigger!
Baker is a game changer on defense.
He’s also young and they could push his money into future years with a new contract. Seeing multiple people say Jags are a good fit (Tony Jefferson among them).
Budda Baker and Devin White want out of their current situation. I don't think we have a need for White, but we do need secondary help. Would love a Baker/Cisco safety tandem.