(02-14-2023, 03:35 PM)rpr52121 Wrote: [ -> ] (02-14-2023, 10:40 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]I'd just let him show me what he's worth instead of extending him prematurely.
If you were over a barrel and had to pay him on an extension now for some mysterious reason, which we do not have, the numbers he's put up thus far say he's worth about 14 million per year.
That's 5.7 million less per year than the current franchise tag at the position if anyone needs reference/comparison.
At this moment, $16 million/year would make him the 10/11th highest paid edge player. While there aren't many great Edge guys slated for FA this year in 2023, next year in 2024 has a whole slew of guys.
By the beginning of the 2024 season, $16 million/year will easily be equal to the ~20-24th highest paid edge player. On top of that, if you wait until next year 24 off season, all those guys hitting FA/new deals are going to pump up that franchise tag and and the market price for Allen even more.
True, Allen has not gotten enough sacks, but I think we all recognize that he is an above average starting Edge in the league. Given most of the improvements to the defense in the next 2 years will be via the draft and cost controlled, I think extending him is reasonable right now.
Using the cap space on him rather than say some other FA DT/DE/CB/S in FA seems to be a bit safer, and you can always just make sure there is minimal dead cap after 2 years.
23rd in the league at edge is where his current pressure, sack and win percentage numbers combined place him.
That's why I went with the 14 mil number.
Which would currently be the 23rd highest paid edge.
Any more than that would be incentive based if I were drawing up the offer.
(02-14-2023, 04:07 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (02-14-2023, 03:35 PM)rpr52121 Wrote: [ -> ]At this moment, $16 million/year would make him the 10/11th highest paid edge player. While there aren't many great Edge guys slated for FA this year in 2023, next year in 2024 has a whole slew of guys.
By the beginning of the 2024 season, $16 million/year will easily be equal to the ~20-24th highest paid edge player. On top of that, if you wait until next year 24 off season, all those guys hitting FA/new deals are going to pump up that franchise tag and and the market price for Allen even more.
True, Allen has not gotten enough sacks, but I think we all recognize that he is an above average starting Edge in the league. Given most of the improvements to the defense in the next 2 years will be via the draft and cost controlled, I think extending him is reasonable right now.
Using the cap space on him rather than say some other FA DT/DE/CB/S in FA seems to be a bit safer, and you can always just make sure there is minimal dead cap after 2 years.
23rd in the league at edge is where his current pressure, sack and win percentage numbers combined place him.
That's why I went with the 14 mil number.
Which would currently be the 23rd highest paid edge.
Any more than that would be incentive based if I were drawing up the offer.
Sure, ideally that is what you want as team, but no agent would ever agree to that this year. By "future proofing' 1 year, Jags increase the chances of getting signing him and probably locking him up cheaper than it would cost to wait 1 more season.
Plus, I think most of us expect him to be at least maintain if not improve his pressure/sack rate in the next few years.
Unless the Jags are looking at drafting someone and paying up to get someone else from the 23/24 FA class.
The interior line is where we need the improvement. We are very mediocre there for the most part. We need an impact player in the interior which we haven't had that since Calais left.
We need interior guys who get better push up the middle and collapse the pocket more effectively.
It's difficult for an edge rusher to get a sack after creating pressure when there is a pocket for the QB to step up into.
More push up the middle and the pressures become sacks.
(02-14-2023, 06:56 PM)Predator Wrote: [ -> ]The interior line is where we need the improvement. We are very mediocre there for the most part. We need an impact player in the interior which we haven't had that since Calais left.
We need interior guys who get better push up the middle and collapse the pocket more effectively.
It's difficult for an edge rusher to get a sack after creating pressure when there is a pocket for the QB to step up into.
More push up the middle and the pressures become sacks.
Agree 100%
Easier said than done, but I'm crossing my fingers for it.
(02-13-2023, 07:40 PM)Mandeezee Wrote: [ -> ]I'm looking at the numbers, other players, and team needs and it seems to me that Allen is gone. Though there are two things in his favor.
The injury to Smoot and this coming season isn't his free agent season. I'm thinking that if not for Smoot injury (and I forgot if it's serious) the team would be fine rolling with Smoot, Key, and Walker. And possibly finding a cheaper but effective free agent.
So do yall think last season was Allen's last or they'll give him one more?
He is under contract and his 2023 salary is guaranteed. Unless he commits a felony, there's virtually no chance that he's cut. They could theoretically trade him, but it makes little sense to me. We need his pass rush skills as much, if not more, than other teams.
I also think Josh Allen is under-rated. He was 7th in the NFL in pressures last season. It would have been nice to see more sacks, but I think that has more to do with his surrounding cast. It's hard to get a sack if receivers are running wide open. His lack of sacks overwhelmingly occurred in the games after Griffin was injured but before Williams moved outside. Look at the 5 games when Griffin started outside, the 5 regular season games with Williams outside and the 2 playoff games again with Williams outside. Josh Allen had 8 sacks in those 12 games which translates to over 11 sacks over a full season. Get a good nickel back and that number goes up. Get more defensive pressure up the middle and that number goes up. Play more games with leads and that number goes up. I haven't even mentioned that he's considered a good locker room presence and team captain. He's not going anywhere this season. I think that they should extend him this offseason. If we wait until after the 2023 season, his price is going to go up.
The Lions have said they would like to add some defensive talent to the roster, either through free agency, the draft, or both. A local sports article there speculated they could envision a trade for Josh Allen (and the Lion's 18th pick in round 1) to pair with Hutchinson. Although it is just speculative, not based on anything from either organization, I do think it is interesting to ponder.
For fun, if such a trade happened, who would you take at 1-18? Does such a trade scenario make sense from a Jag's perspective?
(02-15-2023, 10:59 AM)ATLjag Wrote: [ -> ]The Lions have said they would like to add some defensive talent to the roster, either through free agency, the draft, or both. A local sports article there speculated they could envision a trade for Josh Allen (and the Lion's 18th pick in round 1) to pair with Hutchinson. Although it is just speculative, not based on anything from either organization, I do think it is interesting to ponder.
For fun, if such a trade happened, who would you take at 1-18? Does such a trade scenario make sense from a Jag's perspective?
Would the lions be taking on his full cap hit and guaranteed money?
Either way. I wouldn't do it for 1/18. I'd consider it for one of their interior o-line starters plus a lower pick.
I don’t think so.
By the way for all of you that think contracts matter, they don’t. You can sign a guy for 10 years for 379 million and cut him after 3 days if you want.
(02-15-2023, 12:59 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ] (02-15-2023, 10:59 AM)ATLjag Wrote: [ -> ]The Lions have said they would like to add some defensive talent to the roster, either through free agency, the draft, or both. A local sports article there speculated they could envision a trade for Josh Allen (and the Lion's 18th pick in round 1) to pair with Hutchinson. Although it is just speculative, not based on anything from either organization, I do think it is interesting to ponder.
For fun, if such a trade happened, who would you take at 1-18? Does such a trade scenario make sense from a Jag's perspective?
Would the lions be taking on his full cap hit and guaranteed money?
Either way. I wouldn't do it for 1/18. I'd consider it for one of their interior o-line starters plus a lower pick.
On the 5th year option for Josh Allen, his cap of $10.9m is made up of all guaranteed base salary (no remaining signing bonus being amortized). Thus, in a trade scenario, the acquiring team would be taking on all of the $10.9m base salary and cap hit. The Jags would have no dead money hit.
(02-15-2023, 01:11 PM)JagFanatic24 Wrote: [ -> ]I don’t think so.
By the way for all of you that think contracts matter, they don’t. You can sign a guy for 10 years for 379 million and cut him after 3 days if you want.
They matter when the money is guaranteed or amortized. That's why the Jags had dead money cap hits this year for LaViska, Jay Tufele, and Gregory Junior. If you don't care about dead money you can say that contracts don't matter, but paying guys who haven't been on your team in a few years isn't helpful.
(02-15-2023, 05:30 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ] (02-15-2023, 01:11 PM)JagFanatic24 Wrote: [ -> ]I don’t think so.
By the way for all of you that think contracts matter, they don’t. You can sign a guy for 10 years for 379 million and cut him after 3 days if you want.
They matter when the money is guaranteed or amortized. That's why the Jags had dead money cap hits this year for LaViska, Jay Tufele, and Gregory Junior. If you don't care about dead money you can say that contracts don't matter, but paying guys who haven't been on your team in a few years isn't helpful.
Paying Nick Foles 10's of millions for only 100 snaps or so while we were still eating dead cap on Blake freakin Bortles just "didn't matter." Didn't matter at all.
Sign whoever you want any ol time.
It'll be fine.
At the same time, you can extend him now and disperse the cap hit out among the next 4-5 years. Seeing as we need to free up $32m for next year, it might make sense to sign him to an extension now
(02-16-2023, 10:32 AM)imtheblkranger Wrote: [ -> ]At the same time, you can extend him now and disperse the cap hit out among the next 4-5 years. Seeing as we need to free up $32m for next year, it might make sense to sign him to an extension now
Once the 5th year option is picked up by a team....
When a team and player agree to convert the 5th year option into a contract extension, the minimum guarantees in year 1 must be equal to or greater than the 5th year option cost. Translated, the Jags can not avoid a $10.9m or greater cap hit for 2023, with the only exception being a trade.
(02-16-2023, 10:56 AM)ATLjag Wrote: [ -> ] (02-16-2023, 10:32 AM)imtheblkranger Wrote: [ -> ]At the same time, you can extend him now and disperse the cap hit out among the next 4-5 years. Seeing as we need to free up $32m for next year, it might make sense to sign him to an extension now
Once the 5th year option is picked up by a team....
When a team and player agree to convert the 5th year option into a contract extension, the minimum guarantees in year 1 must be equal to or greater than the 5th year option cost. Translated, the Jags can not avoid a $10.9m or greater cap hit for 2023, with the only exception being a trade.
Interesting, I didn't realize that. I thought they could still guarantee that money as a signing bonus or whatnot and spread the hit out.
(02-16-2023, 10:32 AM)imtheblkranger Wrote: [ -> ]At the same time, you can extend him now and disperse the cap hit out among the next 4-5 years. Seeing as we need to free up $32m for next year, it might make sense to sign him to an extension now
Gotta do whatever it takes now before TLaw gets his 200+ million guaranteed contract.
(02-15-2023, 10:59 AM)ATLjag Wrote: [ -> ]The Lions have said they would like to add some defensive talent to the roster, either through free agency, the draft, or both. A local sports article there speculated they could envision a trade for Josh Allen (and the Lion's 18th pick in round 1) to pair with Hutchinson. Although it is just speculative, not based on anything from either organization, I do think it is interesting to ponder.
For fun, if such a trade happened, who would you take at 1-18? Does such a trade scenario make sense from a Jag's perspective?
I'd take the deal immediately given Allen's middling production. Maybe then bundle both first rounders to move up and grab Tim Anderson, Myles Murphy, or Tyree Wilson. They'd all be cheaper and likely provide better production in time. Tyree Wilson and Travon Walker would be a very versatile, athletic duo. One thing I wouldn't do is use 1/18 to force draft Allen's replacement ala Caldwell's Chaisson debacle.
(02-16-2023, 04:17 PM)TheDogCatcher Wrote: [ -> ] (02-15-2023, 10:59 AM)ATLjag Wrote: [ -> ]The Lions have said they would like to add some defensive talent to the roster, either through free agency, the draft, or both. A local sports article there speculated they could envision a trade for Josh Allen (and the Lion's 18th pick in round 1) to pair with Hutchinson. Although it is just speculative, not based on anything from either organization, I do think it is interesting to ponder.
For fun, if such a trade happened, who would you take at 1-18? Does such a trade scenario make sense from a Jag's perspective?
I'd take the deal immediately given Allen's middling production. Maybe then bundle both first rounders to move up and grab Tim Anderson, Myles Murphy, or Tyree Wilson. They'd all be cheaper and likely provide better production in time. Tyree Wilson and Travon Walker would be a very versatile, athletic duo. One thing I wouldn't do is use 1/18 to force draft Allen's replacement ala Caldwell's Chaisson debacle.
????? The shortstop for the Chicago White Sox? What position would he play in the NFL and did he declare for the NFL draft? LOL
(02-16-2023, 05:25 PM)IKhan't Wrote: [ -> ] (02-16-2023, 04:17 PM)TheDogCatcher Wrote: [ -> ]I'd take the deal immediately given Allen's middling production. Maybe then bundle both first rounders to move up and grab Tim Anderson, Myles Murphy, or Tyree Wilson. They'd all be cheaper and likely provide better production in time. Tyree Wilson and Travon Walker would be a very versatile, athletic duo. One thing I wouldn't do is use 1/18 to force draft Allen's replacement ala Caldwell's Chaisson debacle.
????? The shortstop for the Chicago White Sox? What position would he play in the NFL and did he declare for the NFL draft? LOL
I'm guessing he meant Will Anderson but we would have to move to the top 3 for that lol.
(02-16-2023, 04:17 PM)TheDogCatcher Wrote: [ -> ] (02-15-2023, 10:59 AM)ATLjag Wrote: [ -> ]The Lions have said they would like to add some defensive talent to the roster, either through free agency, the draft, or both. A local sports article there speculated they could envision a trade for Josh Allen (and the Lion's 18th pick in round 1) to pair with Hutchinson. Although it is just speculative, not based on anything from either organization, I do think it is interesting to ponder.
For fun, if such a trade happened, who would you take at 1-18? Does such a trade scenario make sense from a Jag's perspective?
I'd take the deal immediately given Allen's middling production. Maybe then bundle both first rounders to move up and grab Tim Anderson, Myles Murphy, or Tyree Wilson. They'd all be cheaper and likely provide better production in time. Tyree Wilson and Travon Walker would be a very versatile, athletic duo. One thing I wouldn't do is use 1/18 to force draft Allen's replacement ala Caldwell's Chaisson debacle.
I’d take that deal as well and switch to a 4-3 base. Most teams play a version of a 4-2-5 most of the time anyway.
Trade both 1st rounders down slightly and draft a tackle like Harrison or one of the Jones’ and Avila. RT and LG need to be addressed this year and next year RG will need to be. Now is as good a time as any to build a line for Trevor.
You’re right however, not gonna happen I wouldn’t think.
(02-16-2023, 05:25 PM)IKhan't Wrote: [ -> ] (02-16-2023, 04:17 PM)TheDogCatcher Wrote: [ -> ]I'd take the deal immediately given Allen's middling production. Maybe then bundle both first rounders to move up and grab Tim Anderson, Myles Murphy, or Tyree Wilson. They'd all be cheaper and likely provide better production in time. Tyree Wilson and Travon Walker would be a very versatile, athletic duo. One thing I wouldn't do is use 1/18 to force draft Allen's replacement ala Caldwell's Chaisson debacle.
????? The shortstop for the Chicago White Sox? What position would he play in the NFL and did he declare for the NFL draft? LOL
Haha ? my bad. Will