Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

When we get Ham back we will have the Duval Wall

(10-26-2023, 10:05 AM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-25-2023, 05:10 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: [ -> ]I would only trade for Hunter, Young or Sweat if they could afford to sign them to a long-term deal. Could they afford to pay Lawrence, Allen, Hunter/Young/Sweat, and Campbell to long term deals and remain under the salary cap? I don't see this being feasible when they'll also need to pay Walker Little in the not to distant future. A decision will also need to be made on whether to sign Ridley to a long-term deal.

Dethroning the Chiefs as AFC champs this season is highly unlikely unless the pass rush improves significantly. This is not to demean the Jaguars defense which has performed admirably this season. My confidence level in Walker ever becoming a very good pass rusher from the Edge is low. Smoot is a very solid player, but he will never be a guy other teams have to plan for. Hamilton will certainly help get pressure from the inside, but will this strike fear in Mahomes come playoff time? Brady (7 Super Bowl rings) could only be beaten by teams with great pass rushers like the Giants of 2008.

If a deal with one of these elite pass rushers can't be worked out, the Jaguars can still sign one of the veteran free agents to a short term deal. Would Melvin Ingram, Frank Clark or Carlos Dunlap make enough difference  in the pass rush to justify this move? One has to believe they'd already be signed by some team if the answer is "yes." Baalke needs to decide if he wants to "roll the dice" and take one of these players. The cost of such a move would be minimal so my guess is that this is what will happen. Hopefully the Jaguars can then draft a pass rusher in April to play alongside Allen with Walker moving to the defensive line.

Name an "elite" pass rusher that actually sacked Mahomes...

Mahomes is no doubt very difficult to sack; that is one of his many superior traits as a quarterback. He has been sacked 7 times this season, including one by Danielle Hunter, whom I would consider elite. My belief is that the only way to beat Mahomes in a big game is to have a great pass rush. He and Brady are on different levels than other quarterbacks in their ability to win big games and the current Jaguars pass rushers are very unlikely to put enough pressure on him to be successful. Adding another dynamic Edge would change things, but it will be very difficult to afford one for the reasons I have already stated. I'm not willing to give up a high draft pick for a one year rental so it would have to be a long term deal meaning several key players would need to be released fir the 2024 season.

(10-26-2023, 10:37 AM)jaglou53 Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-26-2023, 10:05 AM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]Name an "elite" pass rusher that actually sacked Mahomes...

Mahomes is no doubt very difficult to sack; that is one of his many superior traits as a quarterback. He has been sacked 7 times this season, including one by Danielle Hunter, whom I would consider elite. My belief is that the only way to beat Mahomes in a big game is to have a great pass rush. He and Brady are on different levels than other quarterbacks in their ability to win big games and the current Jaguars pass rushers are very unlikely to put enough pressure on him to be successful. Adding another dynamic Edge would change things, but it will be very difficult to afford one for the reasons I have already stated. I'm not willing to give up a high draft pick for a one year rental so it would have to be a long term deal meaning several key players would need to be released fir the 2024 season.

The cap will raise next year and as of now - Ridley is out. No way you resign a guy with his production and lose a 2nd. You can also restructure some guys and move money around. We could easily bag TL and resign Allen/Campbell/Hunter and rely on Zay/Kirk/Engram/ETN to be the weapons on offense. We'd be up against the cap but that's fine, as the years go on guys move on and become cut or trade bait to free up space.

(10-26-2023, 10:46 AM)JagsFanSince95 Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-26-2023, 10:37 AM)jaglou53 Wrote: [ -> ]Mahomes is no doubt very difficult to sack; that is one of his many superior traits as a quarterback. He has been sacked 7 times this season, including one by Danielle Hunter, whom I would consider elite. My belief is that the only way to beat Mahomes in a big game is to have a great pass rush. He and Brady are on different levels than other quarterbacks in their ability to win big games and the current Jaguars pass rushers are very unlikely to put enough pressure on him to be successful. Adding another dynamic Edge would change things, but it will be very difficult to afford one for the reasons I have already stated. I'm not willing to give up a high draft pick for a one year rental so it would have to be a long term deal meaning several key players would need to be released fir the 2024 season.

The cap will raise next year and as of now - Ridley is out. No way you resign a guy with his production and lose a 2nd. You can also restructure some guys and move money around. We could easily bag TL and resign Allen/Campbell/Hunter and rely on Zay/Kirk/Engram/ETN to be the weapons on offense. We'd be up against the cap but that's fine, as the years go on guys move on and become cut or trade bait to free up space.

Ridley will be an easy decision to make when the season is over based on his production and the degree to which he opens up the other targets. There will very likely be a fair offer made. What the rest of the market does is out of our control. 

If they want to keep him they can. 

It mostly just boils down to how they spread out Trevor's money. 

Lawrence has stated he wants to be in Jax his entire career, and we've seen QB deals exceeding 5 years around the league lately. Very easy to spread it out when you sign a long term deal like that. That's exactly what they should do.

Several other Jags players have also already shown willingness to be flexible with contract structure to keep the team intact.

I see some work to be done by the number crunchers, but nothing insurmountable. I see our roster management very positively moving forward. Guys are bought in and they know the winning window is open. They all want to be part of it. I expect very few painful departures coming this offseason.

Figuring in a big money free agent edge rusher is unlikely IMO and we'd better off using the draft to supplement what we have.
If they choose an edge over keeping Ridley - I get it - but I don't think that's where this front office is aiming.
I think they want to build an offensive juggernaut more than they want to spend on a pass rush.

(10-26-2023, 10:05 AM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-25-2023, 05:10 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: [ -> ]I would only trade for Hunter, Young or Sweat if they could afford to sign them to a long-term deal. Could they afford to pay Lawrence, Allen, Hunter/Young/Sweat, and Campbell to long term deals and remain under the salary cap? I don't see this being feasible when they'll also need to pay Walker Little in the not to distant future. A decision will also need to be made on whether to sign Ridley to a long-term deal.

Dethroning the Chiefs as AFC champs this season is highly unlikely unless the pass rush improves significantly. This is not to demean the Jaguars defense which has performed admirably this season. My confidence level in Walker ever becoming a very good pass rusher from the Edge is low. Smoot is a very solid player, but he will never be a guy other teams have to plan for. Hamilton will certainly help get pressure from the inside, but will this strike fear in Mahomes come playoff time? Brady (7 Super Bowl rings) could only be beaten by teams with great pass rushers like the Giants of 2008.

If a deal with one of these elite pass rushers can't be worked out, the Jaguars can still sign one of the veteran free agents to a short term deal. Would Melvin Ingram, Frank Clark or Carlos Dunlap make enough difference  in the pass rush to justify this move? One has to believe they'd already be signed by some team if the answer is "yes." Baalke needs to decide if he wants to "roll the dice" and take one of these players. The cost of such a move would be minimal so my guess is that this is what will happen. Hopefully the Jaguars can then draft a pass rusher in April to play alongside Allen with Walker moving to the defensive line.

Name an "elite" pass rusher that actually sacked Mahomes...

Maxx Crosby.....

I agree they’ll make an offer to Ridley much like they did Jawaan, and also like Jawaan he’ll take a lot more else where.

I don’t think the cap will be an issue if we were to trade for an elite rusher. Cam and Scherff are gone most likely and that’s your two biggest hits. Rayshan could be added to that list if needed and Oluokon is frankly needs to be extended spreading out his cap hit.

(10-26-2023, 11:49 AM)NoShoes Wrote: [ -> ]I agree  they’ll make an offer to Ridley much like they did Jawaan, and also like Jawaan he’ll take a lot more else where.

I don’t think the cap will be an issue if we were to trade for an elite rusher. Cam and Scherff are gone most likely and that’s your two biggest hits. Rayshan could be added to that list if needed and Oluokon is frankly needs to be extended spreading out his cap hit.

I kind of have similar lines of thinking here. Already peaking ahead into April for next year's draft. Through the first four rounds I have us looking at a LG - DE - S - RG in that order. 

I could see Ridley bailing if the price is too good to pass up on. I think our priority will shift towards tagging and/or extending Allen on defense more than anything. 

Defensively I think you have to get extensions done with Campbell, Cisco and Allen. Oluokon I think we have some more time with. I would look to backfill our interior line with upgrades and a fallback option to pair with Allen if Walker continues to stall out development wise.

(10-26-2023, 11:17 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-26-2023, 10:05 AM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]Name an "elite" pass rusher that actually sacked Mahomes...

Maxx Crosby.....

Not this year....

Point is pressures is what matters with Mahomes as it was with Brady.  The problem is with Mahomes it has to be controlled pressure or he will burn you. The majority of these pass rush specialist sacks are against less mobile QB's

(10-26-2023, 12:07 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-26-2023, 11:49 AM)NoShoes Wrote: [ -> ]I agree  they’ll make an offer to Ridley much like they did Jawaan, and also like Jawaan he’ll take a lot more else where.

I don’t think the cap will be an issue if we were to trade for an elite rusher. Cam and Scherff are gone most likely and that’s your two biggest hits. Rayshan could be added to that list if needed and Oluokon is frankly needs to be extended spreading out his cap hit.

I kind of have similar lines of thinking here. Already peaking ahead into April for next year's draft. Through the first four rounds I have us looking at a LG - DE - S - RG in that order. 

I could see Ridley bailing if the price is too good to pass up on. I think our priority will shift towards tagging and/or extending Allen on defense more than anything. 

Defensively I think you have to get extensions done with Campbell, Cisco and Allen. Oluokon I think we have some more time with. I would look to backfill our interior line with upgrades and a fallback option to pair with Allen if Walker continues to stall out development wise.

Allen is priority one (besides getting Trevor done). Any pass rusher additions need to be just that, an addition. I don’t want to be in the same boat next year if Allen walks.

Oluokon will be the last year of his deal like the others you mentioned. The real push to extend him would be to spread out his cap hit to resign the others with.

(10-26-2023, 12:30 PM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-26-2023, 11:17 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]Maxx Crosby.....

Not this year....

Point is pressures is what matters with Mahomes as it was with Brady.  The problem is with Mahomes it has to be controlled pressure or he will burn you.

You're damned if you do and damned if you don't with him. If you spy him with a backer, he'll just find Kelce somewhere over the middle or his safety valve on the play. If you try and send more than your base defense at him he'll just locate the pressure pre snap and find the open man.

Oddly enough, going back to even 2017 or 2018 I think. Defensively this team has played relatively well against Mahomes. They've baited him into making a lot of mistakes in most of our games. It's the fact that our offensive line simply cannot [BLEEP] get it done against their defense and especially Chris Jones. 

That's been the biggest eye sore for this team in their last three losses to them. Not so much Mahomes. Moreso Jones getting after Lawrence and then our own mistakes offensively. Whether it was a missed throw, a dropped catch or a fumble. This team has to mentally get over the hump with the Chiefs.

(10-26-2023, 12:35 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-26-2023, 12:30 PM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]Not this year....

Point is pressures is what matters with Mahomes as it was with Brady.  The problem is with Mahomes it has to be controlled pressure or he will burn you.

You're damned if you do and damned if you don't with him. If you spy him with a backer, he'll just find Kelce somewhere over the middle or his safety valve on the play. If you try and send more than your base defense at him he'll just locate the pressure pre snap and find the open man.

Oddly enough, going back to even 2017 or 2018 I think. Defensively this team has played relatively well against Mahomes. They've baited him into making a lot of mistakes in most of our games. It's the fact that our offensive line simply cannot [BLEEP] get it done against their defense and especially Chris Jones. 

That's been the biggest eye sore for this team in their last three losses to them. Not so much Mahomes. Moreso Jones getting after Lawrence and then our own mistakes offensively. Whether it was a missed throw, a dropped catch or a fumble. This team has to mentally get over the hump with the Chiefs.

Agreed with this.  My point is the majority of the sack by the elite pass rushers are against less mobile QB's. First off most mobile QB's are faster than these guys. Getting one will not help much against the Chiefs. Now getting better O-line play may.

(10-26-2023, 09:42 AM)imtheblkranger Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-26-2023, 08:23 AM)Mikey Wrote: [ -> ]Key has a thread in the AFCS section, because of course he would. I broke down his stats there.

Spoiler: not really

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one is sunk cost, other is additional cost while you still munch on sunk cost.

choose wisely.

I mean, he built that section of the board.

a golf clap to you, sir.

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(10-26-2023, 10:05 AM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-25-2023, 05:10 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: [ -> ]I would only trade for Hunter, Young or Sweat if they could afford to sign them to a long-term deal. Could they afford to pay Lawrence, Allen, Hunter/Young/Sweat, and Campbell to long term deals and remain under the salary cap? I don't see this being feasible when they'll also need to pay Walker Little in the not to distant future. A decision will also need to be made on whether to sign Ridley to a long-term deal.

Dethroning the Chiefs as AFC champs this season is highly unlikely unless the pass rush improves significantly. This is not to demean the Jaguars defense which has performed admirably this season. My confidence level in Walker ever becoming a very good pass rusher from the Edge is low. Smoot is a very solid player, but he will never be a guy other teams have to plan for. Hamilton will certainly help get pressure from the inside, but will this strike fear in Mahomes come playoff time? Brady (7 Super Bowl rings) could only be beaten by teams with great pass rushers like the Giants of 2008.

If a deal with one of these elite pass rushers can't be worked out, the Jaguars can still sign one of the veteran free agents to a short term deal. Would Melvin Ingram, Frank Clark or Carlos Dunlap make enough difference  in the pass rush to justify this move? One has to believe they'd already be signed by some team if the answer is "yes." Baalke needs to decide if he wants to "roll the dice" and take one of these players. The cost of such a move would be minimal so my guess is that this is what will happen. Hopefully the Jaguars can then draft a pass rusher in April to play alongside Allen with Walker moving to the defensive line.

Name an "elite" pass rusher that actually sacked Mahomes...

@K'Lavon Chaisson@

It sounds like the jags almost had a deal for hunter, and it fell through. It would be nice if they pull something before the trade dead line.

(10-26-2023, 08:47 AM)Mikey Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-25-2023, 11:41 PM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: [ -> ]Funny, a Steelers fan was trying to tell me earlier that the Steelers got us flat beat when it comes to Watt vs Allen. So i looked up both of them, their stats are almost identical.

Maybe, but Allen's stats come in spurts while Watt appears to get his numbers consistently:

JA: 3 0 0 3 0 1 0 (sacks by game; 7 total in 7 gms)

TJ: 3 1 2 0 2 0 (8 in 6)

Note that 4 of Allen's sacks are against the clots, the other 3 on Ridder. None against Mahomes, Allen, or Carr. TJ's 3-sack performance came against SF in a blowout where Purdy only threw 29 times. Consider that Allen only got one against Minshew the week he threw 55 passes.

I'd give the upper hand to TJ as well.

It's worth noting both Allen and Watt are only 1 off on QB hits, nearly the same in pressures and TFL.

Would also point out, steelers have played no one this year outside of the Ravens in terms of QB. Unless Purdy is a top guy to you.

(10-26-2023, 07:37 PM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-26-2023, 08:47 AM)Mikey Wrote: [ -> ]Maybe, but Allen's stats come in spurts while Watt appears to get his numbers consistently:

JA: 3 0 0 3 0 1 0 (sacks by game; 7 total in 7 gms)

TJ: 3 1 2 0 2 0 (8 in 6)

Note that 4 of Allen's sacks are against the clots, the other 3 on Ridder. None against Mahomes, Allen, or Carr. TJ's 3-sack performance came against SF in a blowout where Purdy only threw 29 times. Consider that Allen only got one against Minshew the week he threw 55 passes.

I'd give the upper hand to TJ as well.

It's worth noting both Allen and Watt are only 1 off on QB hits, nearly the same in pressures and TFL.

Would also point out, steelers have played no one this year outside of the Ravens in terms of QB. Unless Purdy is a top guy to you.

I saw that Allen has like double the pressures of Watt on the year. I’ll have to dig up where I saw that when I get a second

(10-26-2023, 07:37 PM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-26-2023, 08:47 AM)Mikey Wrote: [ -> ]Maybe, but Allen's stats come in spurts while Watt appears to get his numbers consistently:

JA: 3 0 0 3 0 1 0 (sacks by game; 7 total in 7 gms)

TJ: 3 1 2 0 2 0 (8 in 6)

Note that 4 of Allen's sacks are against the clots, the other 3 on Ridder. None against Mahomes, Allen, or Carr. TJ's 3-sack performance came against SF in a blowout where Purdy only threw 29 times. Consider that Allen only got one against Minshew the week he threw 55 passes.

I'd give the upper hand to TJ as well.

It's worth noting both Allen and Watt are only 1 off on QB hits, nearly the same in pressures and TFL.

Would also point out, steelers have played no one this year outside of the Ravens in terms of QB. Unless Purdy is a top guy to you.

again, in one fewer game.
I may not consider Purdy among the upper echelon of pigskin tossers, but SFO's line is probably a step up from ATL's.

They are comparable, but far from the same.

If I was a betting man, I would bet the Jags stand pat and do not trade for anyone. We are going to have a hard enough time getting everyone under contract and under the cap next year, and spending 6 or 7 million on a rental player probably isn't wise. That would be 6 or 7 million we could not carry over to next year, when we are going to need every dollar we can dredge up.

I think they will bank on improvement from getting Devon Hamilton back, and Smoot rounding into form.

Personally, while I think our "window" will remain open as long as we have Trevor Lawrence, I don't think we're so close to the top that we can blow money on a half-year rental player.

This is the biggest game of the year so far. If we can pull off this win it will be our best start since 99. Harrison vs Watt is the biggest matchup of this game imo. We have to give Harrison help at times but if he can have a good game against Watt we get the win imo

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(10-27-2023, 06:37 AM)imtheblkranger Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-26-2023, 07:37 PM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: [ -> ]It's worth noting both Allen and Watt are only 1 off on QB hits, nearly the same in pressures and TFL.

Would also point out, steelers have played no one this year outside of the Ravens in terms of QB. Unless Purdy is a top guy to you.

I saw that Allen has like double the pressures of Watt on the year. I’ll have to dig up where I saw that when I get a second

I seen that as well.  I was shocked.  This is Allen's best year by far

(10-27-2023, 09:21 AM)imtheblkranger Wrote: [ -> ]

I'd rather have those 22 extra pressures than that 1 extra sack.