08-08-2016, 10:50 AM
Note in Obama's speech about Trump's "ridiculous" claim the election would be rigged, Obama said, "if he's leading in the polls by 10% - 15% on Election Day, and then loses, he might have a case."
IMO Obama said that because he knows the polls are also rigged. When Reuters changed their polling methodology during the Dem convention to give Hillary an 8-point "bump", they also went back and revised all previous polls to add the same 8 points to Hillary's side.
Now we see the Dems are freaking out because Hillary is getting crushed in nearly every demographic. This is from an insider at Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com:
<p class="">Following the conventions, a pattern has emerged from the polling: Donald Trump has taken a commanding lead in all demographics. From the well to poorly educated and even out-performing Romney among women and Hispanics. According polling aggregates the only demographic Hillary is winning is African American single women and White College Males with advanced degrees in Social Sciences.
<p class="">
<p class="">We spoke to a source who works at Nate Silver's political advocacy group fivethirtyeight.com.
<p class="">
<p class="">RealTrueNews: "Is it fair to say that Silver is worried?"
<p class="">
<p class=""><b>538 Source: </b>"In a panic. Our business model is predicated on making liberals feel better about the election. Right now? It's a disaster."
<p class="">
<p class="">RTN: "So what are you doing?"
<p class="">
<p class="">538: "Well, we're changing the model for starters. There were a few hours when the server was showing the real projections and while traffic was pretty high, let me tell you, it was a melt-down politically."
<p class="">
<p class="">RTN: "What do you mean?"
<p class="">
<p class="">538: "Well, Nate's a liberal. No secret there. When he saw what was happening he flipped out. Had us look for bugs--something gone wrong--looking at the feeds. Of course nothing was wrong. Nothing had changed. Then he got on the phone with his people embedded with Q-Pac and Survey Monkey and PPP and all those guys--"
<p class="">
<p class="">RTN: "Wait--embedded?"
<p class="">
<p class="">538: "Huh? Oh, yeah--it's a big social club. The pollsters all work together. We have a Slack-room that's sharing all kinds of results and skews and all that. That's how we keep it all orderly."
<p class="">
<p class="">RTN: "Orderly?"
<p class="">
<p class="">538: "Sure--what? You think it's . . . random? Come on. Who do you think pays for the polls? People who want results. You're buying media. It's like ads or . . . I don't know. Like newspaper stories? You pay 30k for a poll of Florida, it says what you want."
<p class="">
<p class="">RTN: "But what about on election day?"
<p class="">
<p class="">538: "Oh--we drive it. You set the expectations ahead of time. It's called pre-loading. You'd be surprised how we can fine-tune things. Mass belief is powerful. The problem here is (a) not everyone plays nice. Fox is rogue. Rasumssen was . . . bad. They were doing real polling. Also, there's like a game of chicken. At the start of the cycle we do real polling so that everyone knows how they better buy in. This time . . . Trump just caught us by surprise. The impact was so big--it came on so fast--Hillary just collapsed."
<p class="">
<p class="">RTN: "What--what happens next?"
<p class="">
<p class="">538: "I don't know, man. There are a bunch of smaller groups out there doing real polls. I don't know if anyone can keep this under wraps. They had to talk Silver off the edge of the building yesterday. It was bad."
<p class="">
<p class="">RTN: "He was literally going to throw himself out a window?"
<p class="">
<p class="">538: "Yeah--he was--well, but we're on the second floor. He was just really [BAD WORD REMOVED]. I mean, he got a call from the White House telling him to fix it and [BAD WORD REMOVED]."
<p class="">
<p class="">RTN: "Wow."
<p class="">
<p class="">538: "Wow is right."
IMO Obama said that because he knows the polls are also rigged. When Reuters changed their polling methodology during the Dem convention to give Hillary an 8-point "bump", they also went back and revised all previous polls to add the same 8 points to Hillary's side.
Now we see the Dems are freaking out because Hillary is getting crushed in nearly every demographic. This is from an insider at Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com:
<p class="">Following the conventions, a pattern has emerged from the polling: Donald Trump has taken a commanding lead in all demographics. From the well to poorly educated and even out-performing Romney among women and Hispanics. According polling aggregates the only demographic Hillary is winning is African American single women and White College Males with advanced degrees in Social Sciences.
<p class="">
<p class="">We spoke to a source who works at Nate Silver's political advocacy group fivethirtyeight.com.
<p class="">
<p class="">RealTrueNews: "Is it fair to say that Silver is worried?"
<p class="">
<p class=""><b>538 Source: </b>"In a panic. Our business model is predicated on making liberals feel better about the election. Right now? It's a disaster."
<p class="">
<p class="">RTN: "So what are you doing?"
<p class="">
<p class="">538: "Well, we're changing the model for starters. There were a few hours when the server was showing the real projections and while traffic was pretty high, let me tell you, it was a melt-down politically."
<p class="">
<p class="">RTN: "What do you mean?"
<p class="">
<p class="">538: "Well, Nate's a liberal. No secret there. When he saw what was happening he flipped out. Had us look for bugs--something gone wrong--looking at the feeds. Of course nothing was wrong. Nothing had changed. Then he got on the phone with his people embedded with Q-Pac and Survey Monkey and PPP and all those guys--"
<p class="">
<p class="">RTN: "Wait--embedded?"
<p class="">
<p class="">538: "Huh? Oh, yeah--it's a big social club. The pollsters all work together. We have a Slack-room that's sharing all kinds of results and skews and all that. That's how we keep it all orderly."
<p class="">
<p class="">RTN: "Orderly?"
<p class="">
<p class="">538: "Sure--what? You think it's . . . random? Come on. Who do you think pays for the polls? People who want results. You're buying media. It's like ads or . . . I don't know. Like newspaper stories? You pay 30k for a poll of Florida, it says what you want."
<p class="">
<p class="">RTN: "But what about on election day?"
<p class="">
<p class="">538: "Oh--we drive it. You set the expectations ahead of time. It's called pre-loading. You'd be surprised how we can fine-tune things. Mass belief is powerful. The problem here is (a) not everyone plays nice. Fox is rogue. Rasumssen was . . . bad. They were doing real polling. Also, there's like a game of chicken. At the start of the cycle we do real polling so that everyone knows how they better buy in. This time . . . Trump just caught us by surprise. The impact was so big--it came on so fast--Hillary just collapsed."
<p class="">
<p class="">RTN: "What--what happens next?"
<p class="">
<p class="">538: "I don't know, man. There are a bunch of smaller groups out there doing real polls. I don't know if anyone can keep this under wraps. They had to talk Silver off the edge of the building yesterday. It was bad."
<p class="">
<p class="">RTN: "He was literally going to throw himself out a window?"
<p class="">
<p class="">538: "Yeah--he was--well, but we're on the second floor. He was just really [BAD WORD REMOVED]. I mean, he got a call from the White House telling him to fix it and [BAD WORD REMOVED]."
<p class="">
<p class="">RTN: "Wow."
<p class="">
<p class="">538: "Wow is right."