Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Tacks are competing for the first pick. Argument over.

Just another professional media site that thinks Bortles is the beneficiary of inflated TD numbers. Advanced metrics really don't like him and they have done some really good breakdowns. I doubt anyone will read them with an open mind, but here you go:

 

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/12/18/1...ats-rating

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/20...-vs-stats/

 

What happens when the TD numbers come back down to Earth? His league worst completion rating and low YPA are worrisome for his long term trajectory.

What ever makes you feel better. Enjoy your top 2 pick again.

Quote:What ever makes you feel better. Enjoy your top 2 pick again.

 

And enjoy your middle of the road pick that won't do much to improve the already talent deficient roster? I think having a top 5 pick is much better than outside the top 10 considering neither team is competing for anything. The Jags have been beating up on the worst teams in the league at times those teams have been decimated by injuries, sorry no one outside this board is impressed.

Quote:And enjoy your middle of the road pick that won't do much to improve the already talent deficient roster? I think having a top 5 pick is much better than outside the top 10 considering neither team is competing for anything. The Jags have been beating up on the worst teams in the league at times those teams have been decimated by injuries, sorry no one outside this board is impressed.

You see, that's the beauty. Currently we are sitting at 10 and still have a shot at the playoffs. It's a win/win.

Quote:Just another professional media site that thinks Bortles is the beneficiary of inflated TD numbers. Advanced metrics really don't like him and they have done some really good breakdowns. I doubt anyone will read them with an open mind, but here you go:

<a class="bbc_url" href='http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/12/18/10288136/blake-bortles-jacksonville-jaguars-analytics-grades-stats-rating'>http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/12/18/10288136/blake-bortles-jacksonville-jaguars-analytics-grades-stats-rating</a>

<a class="bbc_url" href='https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/12/16/pro-blake-bortles-grade-vs-stats/'>https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/12/16/pro-blake-bortles-grade-vs-stats/</a>


What happens when the TD numbers come back down to Earth? His league worst completion rating and low YPA are worrisome for his long term trajectory.

Tried my best to be objective


My impression: advance metrics will punish QBs with balls.

Quote:Tried my best to be objective


My impression: advance metrics will punish QBs with balls.

 

Nah, just those who make bad decisions. Whether or not they get away with it on a particular play. It makes sense considering you cannot expect long term success playing that way. Coupled with his horrible inefficiency, its not surprising he is graded out so low.

Quote:Nah, just those who make bad decisions. Whether or not they get away with it on a particular play. It makes sense considering you cannot expect long term success playing that way. Coupled with his horrible inefficiency, its not surprising he is graded out so low.

Fortune favors the bold. His numbers this season are showing that.


Being overly risk averse is not a trait you want in a QB.

Quote:Fortune favors the bold. His numbers this season are showing that.


Being overly risk averse is not a trait you want in a QB.

Yep. Then you are left with MM, David Garrard types.

Quote:Fortune favors the bold. His numbers this season are showing that.


Being overly risk averse is not a trait you want in a QB.

Of course not. But on the same token, you don't want a consistently poor decision maker who is horribly inaccurate and inefficient.

Quote:Of course not. But on the same token, you don't want a consistently poor decision maker who is horribly inaccurate and inefficient.

I suppose I'd ask what is a poor decision? If it yeilds good results, was it a good decision?

Quote:Advanced metrics really don't like him and they have done some really good breakdowns.

 

Eh... no.  They have not.

Quote:And enjoy your middle of the road pick that won't do much to improve the already talent deficient roster? I think having a top 5 pick is much better than outside the top 10 considering neither team is competing for anything. The Jags have been beating up on the worst teams in the league at times those teams have been decimated by injuries, sorry no one outside this board is impressed.

Talent deficient roster? Kid, we have one of the most talented offensive rosters in the league and rising stars on defense. Fowler comes back, we draft defense for 7 rounds, and then get key players in FA right after. Good luck getting five wins next season.

Quote:I suppose I'd ask what is a poor decision? If it yeilds good results, was it a good decision?

 

No, for example, Mariota's deflected pass that resulted in a 61 yard TD. 

 

Quote:Eh... no.  They have not.

 

That's you're opinion, but check out the link I posted from pff. What do you disagree with there?

 

Quote:Talent deficient roster? Kid, we have one of the most talented offensive rosters in the league and rising stars on defense. Fowler comes back, we draft defense for 7 rounds, and then get key players in FA right after. Good luck getting five wins next season.

 

Right, because scraping out 5 wins on the easiest schedule in the NFL is impressive. 

Quote:Right, because scraping out 5 wins on the easiest schedule in the NFL is impressive. 

I said nothing about our record being impressive. You thinking we need high draft picks to help our "talent deficient" roster makes you look like a fool. Our defense (and kicker) has been the reason why we've lost so many games this year, and it will be addressed in the off-season like I've already said. 

Quote:Just another professional media site that thinks Bortles is the beneficiary of inflated TD numbers. Advanced metrics really don't like him and they have done some really good breakdowns. I doubt anyone will read them with an open mind, but here you go:

<a class="bbc_url" href='http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/12/18/10288136/blake-bortles-jacksonville-jaguars-analytics-grades-stats-rating'>http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/12/18/10288136/blake-bortles-jacksonville-jaguars-analytics-grades-stats-rating</a>

<a class="bbc_url" href='https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/12/16/pro-blake-bortles-grade-vs-stats/'>https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/12/16/pro-blake-bortles-grade-vs-stats/</a>


What happens when the TD numbers come back down to Earth? His league worst completion rating and low YPA are worrisome for his long term trajectory.

Isn't his ypa like 10-12?

Quote:No, for example, Mariota's deflected pass that resulted in a 61 yard TD.

It isn't just deflected passes though.


An example they site as a negative play is Blake's throw on the run to Hurns in double coverage. A gunslinger move by Blake which put this offense back into rhythm after a jerky start.


They don't credit that as a TD for Blake, which is bull considering he is giving Hurns the ball with one man to beat and plenty of sideline.


They even consider this a negative play because the DB should have picked the pass if it weren't thrown perfectly. This is [BLEEP].


It doesn't matter to me anymore what these metrics spit out,if it is not formulaic then it will have the researchers biases about players built in.

Quote:Isn't his ypa like 10-12?

No his yards per attempt is 7.0 or something in Blake's case a low YPA shows he needs to work on his accuracy and complete more of his passes.


His yards per completion is 12.2 and is actually slightly better than some very good passers which is a good sign that he is trying to push the ball downfield.


Brady 12.0

Rivers 11.0

Brees 11.3


Palmer at 13.7 wow


Some young guys also doing well in this category.


Carr 11.7

Winston 12.8

Mariota 12.3 (much better than than I was expecting Bacon)

Quote:Just another professional media site that thinks Bortles is the beneficiary of inflated TD numbers. Advanced metrics really don't like him and they have done some really good breakdowns. I doubt anyone will read them with an open mind, but here you go:

 

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/12/18/1...ats-rating

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/20...-vs-stats/

 

What happens when the TD numbers come back down to Earth? His league worst completion rating and low YPA are worrisome for his long term trajectory.

 

Could you post those advanced metrics? Because those two articles don't have any metrics in them. The first one is just referencing the second, which in turn, is a defense of a grading system the site uses, which isn't a metric to begin with by virtue of its failing to measure anything at all. To call it advanced metrics shows you have no idea of what metrics actually are.

 

This is an example of an article that cites advanced metrics: http://espn.go.com/blog/tennessee-titans...sweet-spot

 

It's an advanced metric because it's breaking down the measurements of what is actually happening on the field without interjecting anyone's opinion or biases and simply showing what occurred in specific instances, in this case what happens when mariota is made to throw it outside of the numbers or deep down the field, he does terribly.

 

PFF's grading is nice as a simple number for laymen to try to compare performances, but it should be clear to anyone that pays attention even to how their grades fluctuate that they're only barely based in any reality of measurable play. Bortles' "grade" for the game in question went from a -5.4 to a -2.9, which is multiple standard deviations of difference, showing that either the guy doing the first grade is absolutely incompetent at what he does, or has an inborn bias reflected in his work. Even the article they posted in defense of their grade only includes one legitimately questionable throw, the one that ended up as a 17 yard completion to Clay Harbor after being popped up by a colt diving for an INT attempt. Sure maybe an elite corner makes that INT, but if the standard for a bad play is that a top 5% player at a position makes that play then I'm not sure what PFF's point even is, because shouldn't that just be called a great defensive play instead of crapping on the QB for trying to fit a difficult throw in to a guy 17 yards downfield.

A 1 read QB that reminds me of David Garrard at best and Vince Young at worst versus a QB that makes all the throws and had accuracy issues his first 2 years...

 

That's a tough call... :teehee: