(11-21-2018, 11:12 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ] (11-21-2018, 09:55 PM)JagNGeorgia Wrote: [ -> ]I think this has more to do with the Feds raising interest rates. I do believe there is so skepticism with how the Democrats will handle the market with tax breaks, regulations, etc., but I think it's mostly about the interest rates. Three interest rate bumps in 2018 is enough to cause a correction in a market like this one.
The housing market and builders are about to take a huge hit. You can always count on the feds to cool down the housing market.
There's a trend in larger markets of the number of homes for sale continuing to stay steady or climb while the number of homes sold falls off. That's more a sign of an artificial bubble getting ready to burst, though not nearly as dramatically as 10-15 years ago. When interest rates climb, as they need to, it's going to result in mortgage lenders taking several markets into phase three of a bubble: writing loans for anyone and everyone whether they can afford them or not in the name of clearing inventory. That's natural market progression, and I'd argue the feds didn't raise interest rates soon enough to keep another large bubble from forming.
(11-22-2018, 12:42 PM)TJBender Wrote: [ -> ] (11-21-2018, 11:12 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]The housing market and builders are about to take a huge hit. You can always count on the feds to cool down the housing market.
There's a trend in larger markets of the number of homes for sale continuing to stay steady or climb while the number of homes sold falls off. That's more a sign of an artificial bubble getting ready to burst, though not nearly as dramatically as 10-15 years ago. When interest rates climb, as they need to, it's going to result in mortgage lenders taking several markets into phase three of a bubble: writing loans for anyone and everyone whether they can afford them or not in the name of clearing inventory. That's natural market progression, and I'd argue the feds didn't raise interest rates soon enough to keep another large bubble from forming.
Housing is out of control again. It needs to burst soon to put some equilibrium back in place.
(11-22-2018, 12:45 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ] (11-22-2018, 12:42 PM)TJBender Wrote: [ -> ]There's a trend in larger markets of the number of homes for sale continuing to stay steady or climb while the number of homes sold falls off. That's more a sign of an artificial bubble getting ready to burst, though not nearly as dramatically as 10-15 years ago. When interest rates climb, as they need to, it's going to result in mortgage lenders taking several markets into phase three of a bubble: writing loans for anyone and everyone whether they can afford them or not in the name of clearing inventory. That's natural market progression, and I'd argue the feds didn't raise interest rates soon enough to keep another large bubble from forming.
Housing is out of control again. It needs to burst soon to put some equilibrium back in place.
Keep an eye on the mortgage to income ratio figure. Once that creeps up near 50% (it has in several large markets), everyone who bought with an ARM 5 years ago and everyone who's still buying houses today in that market are soon to be screwed.
(11-23-2018, 05:57 PM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ] (01-17-2018, 05:14 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]Instead of creating a new thread every time the market gains another 1000 points, figure we can just track it here.
Market just eclipsed 26,000 today. The economy is absolutely booming, and they are predicting it will eclipse 27K soon.
Any updates?
Sadly, that was actually pretty funny.
(11-22-2018, 01:10 PM)TJBender Wrote: [ -> ] (11-22-2018, 12:45 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]Housing is out of control again. It needs to burst soon to put some equilibrium back in place.
Keep an eye on the mortgage to income ratio figure. Once that creeps up near 50% (it has in several large markets), everyone who bought with an ARM 5 years ago and everyone who's still buying houses today in that market are soon to be screwed.
I don't think people are buying ARM's like they did 12-15 years ago. The only good thing out the recession is that people seem to be a little more aware of this kind of thing now.
(11-26-2018, 09:36 PM)HandsomeRob86 Wrote: [ -> ] (11-22-2018, 01:10 PM)TJBender Wrote: [ -> ]Keep an eye on the mortgage to income ratio figure. Once that creeps up near 50% (it has in several large markets), everyone who bought with an ARM 5 years ago and everyone who's still buying houses today in that market are soon to be screwed.
I don't think people are buying ARM's like they did 12-15 years ago. The only good thing out the recession is that people seem to be a little more aware of this kind of thing now.
ARM Loans should be eliminated, unless one pays 25% down and has an excellent credit score of 800+. The population as a whole is not savy enough to really mentally absord the financial impact they face once those discounted periods end.
(11-27-2018, 05:08 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ] (11-26-2018, 09:36 PM)HandsomeRob86 Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think people are buying ARM's like they did 12-15 years ago. The only good thing out the recession is that people seem to be a little more aware of this kind of thing now.
ARM Loans should be eliminated, unless one pays 25% down and has an excellent credit score of 800+. The population as a whole is not savy enough to really mentally absord the financial impact they face once those discounted periods end.
ARM loans do have a purpose. If you know going in that you're only going to be living somewhere for 3-4 years and you'd rather stay in one place the whole time than move around when rents change and landlords cancel leases, a 5-year ARM makes a lot of sense. The problem with ARMs is that there are still people out there who take them out on a house they intend to live in long-term. Yes, on day one, it keeps their payments way down and they can afford more house than they should have moved into. Once you hit the fifth year, the interest rate jumps and so do your payments, and suddenly that house you could afford is now out of your price range with you in it.
(11-27-2018, 05:08 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ] (11-26-2018, 09:36 PM)HandsomeRob86 Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think people are buying ARM's like they did 12-15 years ago. The only good thing out the recession is that people seem to be a little more aware of this kind of thing now.
ARM Loans should be eliminated, unless one pays 25% down and has an excellent credit score of 800+. The population as a whole is not savy enough to really mentally absord the financial impact they face once those discounted periods end.
I can somewhat agree with this. I actually qualify under your scenario and did just that (put 25% down and have an excellent credit score). I am coming up on 1 year of my ARM loan on property that I bought. It made sense for me to borrow the money rather than using capital to purchase the property (35 acres). The cash that I would have used had I outright purchased the land is making me money, even during this market correction. My gains are actually more than what I'm paying in interest so I'm still ahead.
The current correction in the market was anticipated and (in my opinion) a little bit late. I pity the people that bought into the crypto-currency hype. If they are still in they have lost a bunch of money unless they shorted it.
I don't see the market testing the 52 week highs until after the first of the year.
The bottom line is, the market is the market regardless of who is in The White House. The best thing to do is educate, watch and determine what to do.
(11-27-2018, 06:00 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]The current correction in the market was anticipated and (in my opinion) a little bit late. I pity the people that bought into the crypto-currency hype. If they are still in they have lost a bunch of money unless they shorted it.
GTX 1070: $400
Electricity: $450
Turning nothing into $2,500 worth of cryptocurrency and selling it all days before the bottom fell out: priceless.
As a bonus, I'm still using the GTX 1070 for gaming.
TODAY WAS A GREAT DAY IN THE STOCK MARKET !!!
TIME TO GO DRINK A LOT OF SAKI AND THEN GO SEE BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY !!!
(11-23-2018, 05:57 PM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ] (01-17-2018, 05:14 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]Instead of creating a new thread every time the market gains another 1000 points, figure we can just track it here.
Market just eclipsed 26,000 today. The economy is absolutely booming, and they are predicting it will eclipse 27K soon.
Any updates?
Yep. DJIA went up 617 points today.
(11-28-2018, 05:31 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ]TODAY WAS A GREAT DAY IN THE STOCK MARKET !!!
TIME TO GO DRINK A LOT OF SAKI AND THEN GO SEE BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY !!!
Did you see a little silhouetto of a man?
(11-28-2018, 06:57 PM)TJBender Wrote: [ -> ] (11-28-2018, 05:31 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ]TODAY WAS A GREAT DAY IN THE STOCK MARKET !!!
TIME TO GO DRINK A LOT OF SAKI AND THEN GO SEE BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY !!!
Did you see a little silhouetto of a man?
No, but I was one of two on the shade.
(11-27-2018, 11:32 PM)TJBender Wrote: [ -> ] (11-27-2018, 06:00 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]The current correction in the market was anticipated and (in my opinion) a little bit late. I pity the people that bought into the crypto-currency hype. If they are still in they have lost a bunch of money unless they shorted it.
GTX 1070: $400
Electricity: $450
Turning nothing into $2,500 worth of cryptocurrency and selling it all days before the bottom fell out: priceless.
As a bonus, I'm still using the GTX 1070 for gaming.
I wasn't talking about mining, I was talking about the stocks/ETF options available for investment. Pretty much every crypto-currency stock is way down. There is no value there and it's pretty much a HUGE gamble to invest in them (unless you are a day trader).
"Investing" over $800 in equipment and getting a return that small really isn't much. Put that $800 into the right ETF and not only do you gain as it goes up, you also get the dividends. Even with the correction in the market that we saw I'm still over 12% return on my investments and still making gains.
I won't post my financial details, but I will say this. I started one investment with $8000 and it's now worth north of $20,000 after a little more than 2 years.
As it relates to this thread, I purchased several shares of an ETF (ITA) back when President Trump was elected for around $130 per share (November 2016). Today it's trading in the $191 per share range and was as high as ~$216 per share. During that time I also collected the dividends that it paid out. On that investment alone I made a good amount of money and am in the "green range" in that my original investment is worth more today than it was when I committed the money.
The bottom line is that the daily or even weekly swings in the market are not really important, it's the long term trend that counts. The person in the White House does have influence on the markets, just not in the way that people think.
(11-29-2018, 05:22 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ] (11-27-2018, 11:32 PM)TJBender Wrote: [ -> ]GTX 1070: $400
Electricity: $450
Turning nothing into $2,500 worth of cryptocurrency and selling it all days before the bottom fell out: priceless.
As a bonus, I'm still using the GTX 1070 for gaming.
I wasn't talking about mining, I was talking about the stocks/ETF options available for investment. Pretty much every crypto-currency stock is way down. There is no value there and it's pretty much a HUGE gamble to invest in them (unless you are a day trader).
"Investing" over $800 in equipment and getting a return that small really isn't much. Put that $800 into the right ETF and not only do you gain as it goes up, you also get the dividends. Even with the correction in the market that we saw I'm still over 12% return on my investments and still making gains.
I won't post my financial details, but I will say this. I started one investment with $8000 and it's now worth north of $20,000 after a little more than 2 years.
As it relates to this thread, I purchased several shares of an ETF (ITA) back when President Trump was elected for around $130 per share (November 2016). Today it's trading in the $191 per share range and was as high as ~$216 per share. During that time I also collected the dividends that it paid out. On that investment alone I made a good amount of money and am in the "green range" in that my original investment is worth more today than it was when I committed the money.
The bottom line is that the daily or even weekly swings in the market are not really important, it's the long term trend that counts. The person in the White House does have influence on the markets, just not in the way that people think.
Very true words, the fundamentals of the market are a much stronger force than what a president can directly influence, eventually earnings and balance sheets are what really matters.
Trump with another cup of losing?
This is all on Trump though remember...
In the long run, a diversified investment in the stock market will very probably give a greater return than any other normal investment. History proves that this is true.
The problem is, no one can predict how long "the long run" will be.
In the meantime, you have to have a lot of discipline to ride the roller coaster up and down. A lot of people say they can withstand the pain of a protracted decline, until it happens. Then you see who really has nerve and discipline.