Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

(02-28-2020, 03:46 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-28-2020, 12:33 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]

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Are you trading in a retirement account or something?  Why would they be warning you about excessive trading?

It's only 401k in Fidelity.  The message stated that excessive trades go against the integrity and purpose of the funds (or something like that).  In other words, they don't want people running to the bond fund for a few days to shelter their $$ from market hits then pop their money back into Large Cap funds (Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft) during upswings.

I would leave a 401k alone, especially since they are typically mutual funds.  If you want to actively trade I would suggest opening up an IRA with a brokerage.  I wouldn't do so if your company matches 401k contributions.  I would just contribute the max and leave it alone.  Depending on your age I would look at either a "target retirement date" mutual fund or keep a classic 60% to 40% equity/bond ratio.

I personally use Fidelity as my brokerage, though there are others.  I rolled over several 401k accounts into both traditional and ROTH IRA's since the current contractor that I work for doesn't do matching to 401k's.  I didn't like any of the offerings in the company 401k so I chose to manage my retirement account on my own.  This was back in 2011 and I have been doing so since.  I also manage my wife's retirement account pretty much the same way.  Her multiple 401k accounts were rolled into an IRA.

I also have a separate brokerage account that I manage on my own and fund from my salary.  I opened this way back in the early 2000's and put money into it as I could.  When we paid our house off in early 2010 I began to fund this with what used to be our house payment.  With the money that I have saved/made off of this account I managed to buy some property, a couple of tractors and other equipment as well as some livestock.

Trading on the market is not for an "average" investor.  I spent a lot of time researching and learning.  You can make a lot of money in the market and at the same time lose a lot of money if you don't know what you are doing.  I am by no means an expert, but I have managed to do pretty well AFTER doing the research and educating myself.  One of the biggest lessons I had to learn early is about Capital Gains Taxes.  When you sell shares, you don't get what they were worth after Uncle Sam takes his share.

(02-28-2020, 03:50 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-28-2020, 11:41 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]So... down another 1,000 points this morning.   I remember at the depths of the financial crisis, when the Dow hit around 8,000, and things were really scary, Warren Buffett said "now is the time to buy..." It went down to 6,600 as I recall, and that was the bottom.   So anyone who heeded his advice would have made a lot of money.

No one can call the bottom except by sheer luck, and no one can predict what the market will do in the short run, meaning less than at least a year or two.  Long run, the market always beats everything.  Because business beats everything, and there is nothing as powerful as human greed and ambition and ingenuity.

The market is kind of acting like it's searching for the bottom.  It can go either way at this point.  The last hour of trading should be interesting.  As I type this (2:38 PM Eastern) the DOW is "only" down around 660 points.  There have been a lot of wild and crazy swings all day, but we never got positive.  The last hour of trading can cause a major swing one way or the other.  I'm still hoping and predicting that it swings more positive and ends up closer to being flat.  If it goes the other way (a very good possibility) we may not see much in the way of a recovery until well into next week.

I am still in on a few things that I have been long on and am still not going to touch those.  Depending on how things go I may consider getting back in sometime in the next week or so.  In the meantime I'll sit on the sideline with cash making very little.

In the last 5 minutes or so it was crazy.  The DOW went from -800 or so points to -357 or so points.  It is a swing towards the positive which is what I wanted and was expecting.  We'll see how the weekend plays out and what the headlines are.  I am hoping though not predicting that there will be an upswing in the market Monday depending on the news over the weekend.

(02-28-2020, 06:03 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-28-2020, 03:50 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]The market is kind of acting like it's searching for the bottom.  It can go either way at this point.  The last hour of trading should be interesting.  As I type this (2:38 PM Eastern) the DOW is "only" down around 660 points.  There have been a lot of wild and crazy swings all day, but we never got positive.  The last hour of trading can cause a major swing one way or the other.  I'm still hoping and predicting that it swings more positive and ends up closer to being flat.  If it goes the other way (a very good possibility) we may not see much in the way of a recovery until well into next week.

I am still in on a few things that I have been long on and am still not going to touch those.  Depending on how things go I may consider getting back in sometime in the next week or so.  In the meantime I'll sit on the sideline with cash making very little.

In the last 5 minutes or so it was crazy.  The DOW went from -800 or so points to -357 or so points.  It is a swing towards the positive which is what I wanted and was expecting.  We'll see how the weekend plays out and what the headlines are.  I am hoping though not predicting that there will be an upswing in the market Monday depending on the news over the weekend.

+1

JIB, if you are deciding when to buy back in, this ZeroHedge article gives historical references of every day the S&P tanked by 5% or more, and what happened in the ensuing 3 months.

Basically if there is a day the S&P drops 5%, buy the close and you will make money 90% of the time, with an average return of 8.46% in 3 months.

There is one caveat, that if you believe corona-virus will cause a series of -5% crashes, buy in small on the first crash and add to your position with each subsequent crash.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/story-...et-crashes

As of right now (1:51 PM EST) the DOW is back up over 700 points.  I expected a rebound, but not one quite this strong.  Don't be surprised to see a move down before the end of trading today.  I'm going to wait and see how the next few days play out and see what the volatility is like.  I would like to see things steady out for a few days.  The FED decision regarding a possible rate cut might make a difference.

20 minutes until the close and the DOW is up over 900.  I wouldn't call it a "rally" or "recovery" just yet, but getting back in is probably a good move right now.  I wouldn't jump "all in", but perhaps "leg in" a bit with some cash sitting on the sideline.  Look for sectors or stocks that could do well in spite of the media frenzy over the corona virus.

I did something that I normally wouldn't do... bought back in during the last hour of trading.  I managed to improve my positions on a few ETF's that I'm long in and get them close to being out of "the red".  I'm going to wait and see what the market does over the next few days before I consider putting any more money back in.

I expected a move to the positive today, but didn't expect a record single day gain.  The DOW posted it's highest single day gain ever.  Expect perhaps a few days of "modest gains" and perhaps a downside move here and there.  I want to see some stability before I go back to "all in".  If there are more wild swings one way or the other I would caution against buying in.  A few days where the market indices are pretty much stable are what we need.

Got my toes in the water today but I want to look at market activity tomorrow before a faith leap for "recovery" gains.

Welp, that didn't suck.

Needed this after dropping $____ over the past 2 weeks.   Not too bad considering Jeff Bezos was down $14.1 billion.

(03-02-2020, 05:14 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]I did something that I normally wouldn't do... bought back in during the last hour of trading.  I managed to improve my positions on a few ETF's that I'm long in and get them close to being out of "the red".  I'm going to wait and see what the market does over the next few days before I consider putting any more money back in.

I expected a move to the positive today, but didn't expect a record single day gain.  The DOW posted it's highest single day gain ever.  Expect perhaps a few days of "modest gains" and perhaps a downside move here and there.  I want to see some stability before I go back to "all in".  If there are more wild swings one way or the other I would caution against buying in.  A few days where the market indices are pretty much stable are what we need.

Do you have a financial advisor?   This stuff
Is way over my head.  We have many resident pros here.   I’m not sure where you’re at.  But if you have a reputable advisor, he/she should be able to move whatever and whenever you please or as they deem necessary.  

Something tells me you’re more than aware of all that.  

Hope it all works out.

I am not the type that trades in and out and tries to figure out where the market is going today, tomorrow, next week.  That is a fool's game.  

BUT- if I were to try to prognosticate, I would say there will be bounces like the one Monday, the market will gyrate, and then eventually, in the next month or so, it will slowly start grinding down as the real economic effects of the virus assert themselves.  

The market bounced on Monday because it thinks the fed will pump up the balloon again.  

Here's an interesting article:   https://seekingalpha.com/article/4328977...black-swan
The author's prediction for the following Monday was not correct, but if the reason for the bounce Monday was the expectation that the fed would bail us all out again, that explains it.

I'm sure the Democrats are ready to blame Trump, and Trump is ready to blame the fed, the media, and the democrats, and everyone else on the planet, but in reality, no one is to blame.  This is the infamous black swan.

(03-03-2020, 08:46 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]I am not the type that trades in and out and tries to figure out where the market is going today, tomorrow, next week.  That is a fool's game.  

BUT- if I were to try to prognosticate, I would say there will be bounces like the one Monday, the market will gyrate, and then eventually, in the next month or so, it will slowly start grinding down as the real economic effects of the virus assert themselves.  

The market bounced on Monday because it thinks the fed will pump up the balloon again.  

Here's an interesting article:   https://seekingalpha.com/article/4328977...black-swan
The author's prediction for the following Monday was not correct, but if the reason for the bounce Monday was the expectation that the fed would bail us all out again, that explains it.

I'm sure the Democrats are ready to blame Trump, and Trump is ready to blame the fed, the media, and the democrats, and everyone else on the planet, but in reality, no one is to blame.  This is the infamous black swan.

That does it. I’m investing my dollar bills in lap dances.

(03-03-2020, 08:58 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-03-2020, 08:46 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]I am not the type that trades in and out and tries to figure out where the market is going today, tomorrow, next week.  That is a fool's game.  

BUT- if I were to try to prognosticate, I would say there will be bounces like the one Monday, the market will gyrate, and then eventually, in the next month or so, it will slowly start grinding down as the real economic effects of the virus assert themselves.  

The market bounced on Monday because it thinks the fed will pump up the balloon again.  

Here's an interesting article:   https://seekingalpha.com/article/4328977...black-swan
The author's prediction for the following Monday was not correct, but if the reason for the bounce Monday was the expectation that the fed would bail us all out again, that explains it.

I'm sure the Democrats are ready to blame Trump, and Trump is ready to blame the fed, the media, and the democrats, and everyone else on the planet, but in reality, no one is to blame.  This is the infamous black swan.

That does it. I’m investing my dollar bills in lap dances.

Man, the girls on Emerson are really lowering their prices these days huh...

(03-03-2020, 09:08 AM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-03-2020, 08:58 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]That does it. I’m investing my dollar bills in lap dances.

Man, the girls on Emerson are really lowering their prices these days huh...

Funny you should mention it, when I stopped for gas this morning Jojo said the price of meth was down over the weekend so she is giving a 2 for 1 special this week. You should hit her up there HB. Mobil station on Philips between Emerson and Atlantic.

In my opinion The FED made a huge mistake today.  It's not the fact that they cut rates which was expected.  It's the when, how and the why.  It gives the appearance of a "knee jerk" panic reaction.  I expect the market to have some crazy swings this week much like we saw today.  In my opinion it's still a good buying opportunity as I think we are very close to the bottom of this sell-off.  I personally am going to wait to see some stability before I jump back to "all in".

(03-02-2020, 08:08 PM)Jags Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-02-2020, 05:14 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]I did something that I normally wouldn't do... bought back in during the last hour of trading.  I managed to improve my positions on a few ETF's that I'm long in and get them close to being out of "the red".  I'm going to wait and see what the market does over the next few days before I consider putting any more money back in.

I expected a move to the positive today, but didn't expect a record single day gain.  The DOW posted it's highest single day gain ever.  Expect perhaps a few days of "modest gains" and perhaps a downside move here and there.  I want to see some stability before I go back to "all in".  If there are more wild swings one way or the other I would caution against buying in.  A few days where the market indices are pretty much stable are what we need.

Do you have a financial advisor?   This stuff
Is way over my head.  We have many resident pros here.   I’m not sure where you’re at.  But if you have a reputable advisor, he/she should be able to move whatever and whenever you please or as they deem necessary.  

Something tells me you’re more than aware of all that.  

Hope it all works out.

I don't have a financial adviser, though I would recommend getting one to anyone not experienced in trading/investing.  I do a lot of reading and researching and have been actively investing in the market since around the late 90's/early 2000's.  During that time up until around 2010 or so I also contributed to my company's 401k offering(s) which included company matching.  Since then I have consolidated all of my 401k accounts into 2 IRA accounts (one traditional and one ROTH).

My situation is a bit different than most people.  I work for government contractors so while my job has been the same over time, the companies that I worked for always changed depending on who gets the latest contract.  That's why I had so many different 401ks.  The latest company to get our contract doesn't match and had crappy options so I decided to consolidate and manage my retirement accounts on my own.  I managed to do alright, but I imagine that I probably would have done better with a professional money manager.  Either way I have always "beat" the market averages and have a nice "nest egg" for retirement saved up and have supplemented my income with my own investments.

I am also fortunate enough that I have a job where I can keep financial news on (mostly FOX Business) and keep up with what is happening throughout the day while I am at work (for the most part).

The best advice that I would give anyone is to either hire a professional or just contribute to your 401k regularly.  If you are under 50 years old just keep adding to your position and don't try to "manage" your allocations based on day-to-day or even month-to-month moves in the market.  Over time you will end up making more money because even in a down swing like we saw over the last few weeks you are still buying stocks at "bargain" prices and when the market recovers they will be more valuable.  Also, if you are not an active trader/investor don't pay too much attention to the daily or weekly swings in the market.  I would stay away from "trading" and just invest.

Another piece of advice that I would give is to stay away from individual stocks and concentrate on groups of stocks.  I will rarely buy individual stocks, though I have done so and did well (for the most part) with those investments.  Have they all be "winners"?  Certainly not.  I personally stay away from mutual funds and invest mainly in ETF's and concentrate on sectors more than anything.

(03-02-2020, 05:14 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]I did something that I normally wouldn't do... bought back in during the last hour of trading.  I managed to improve my positions on a few ETF's that I'm long in and get them close to being out of "the red".  I'm going to wait and see what the market does over the next few days before I consider putting any more money back in.

I expected a move to the positive today, but didn't expect a record single day gain.  The DOW posted it's highest single day gain ever.  Expect perhaps a few days of "modest gains" and perhaps a downside move here and there.  I want to see some stability before I go back to "all in".  If there are more wild swings one way or the other I would caution against buying in.  A few days where the market indices are pretty much stable are what we need.

Yep, the roller coaster continues

Market opened up around 700 points.  I believe part of this is due to Bernie Sanders not doing so well yesterday.  Let's see how the day goes.