(12-17-2019, 01:12 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]Unemployment is moving in the wrong direction in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Population is barely growing in all of them, yet housing prices are going up more than 5% annually in these places. Trump won all four of those states, and he (or Pence) probably needs to hold on to two of them to have any chance in 2020.
What in the hell does anything you just said have to do with the stock market under Trump?
(01-17-2018, 05:14 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]Instead of creating a new thread every time the market gains another 1000 points, figure we can just track it here.
Market just eclipsed 26,000 today. The economy is absolutely booming, and they are predicting it will eclipse 27K soon.
Original post ..... 1/17/2018
as info, the NASDAQ was at 7,225 -- now up 30%
I just peeked in on my asset performance...18.94% for the past 12 months.
Stupid Drumpf is gonna crush us all to death under the weight of all this money!
(01-10-2020, 01:25 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]I just peeked in on my asset performance...18.94% for the past 12 months.
Stupid Drumpf is gonna crush us all to death under the weight of all this money!
I'm not certain why people don't monitor performance and adjust accordingly. I'm still kicking myself for not moving my 401k to a bond fund back in 2009. Most recently, I moved a significant portion of my funds to Dodge and Cox which has been in fire over the past 6 months (primarily high tech NASDAQ companies). I won't hesitate to move to a very conservative fund upon any doom and gloom scenarios.
(01-10-2020, 03:29 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ] (01-10-2020, 01:25 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]I just peeked in on my asset performance...18.94% for the past 12 months.
Stupid Drumpf is gonna crush us all to death under the weight of all this money!
I'm not certain why people don't monitor performance and adjust accordingly. I'm still kicking myself for not moving my 401k to a bond fund back in 2009. Most recently, I moved a significant portion of my funds to Dodge and Cox which has been in fire over the past 6 months (primarily high tech NASDAQ companies). I won't hesitate to move to a very conservative fund upon any doom and gloom scenarios.
It all depends on a person's goal(s). I personally stay away from mutual funds and instead prefer ETF's. Speaking for myself, timing the market is foolish and it's better to be in for the long term as well as being diversified. I got out of 401k's when the company that holds my contract stopped any kind of matching. Instead I have both a Roth IRA and a Traditional IRA that I contribute to (along with a brokerage account) that I manage on my own. I don't buy or sell very often and when I do it's usually (I feel) for good reason. I didn't do quite as well as flsprtsgod this past year, but I did beat the DOW as well as the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. Boeing dragged me down a bit this year.
The stock market is being propped up by low interest rates. Stocks and bonds compete for investment dollars, and as long as you can buy stock and get more in dividends than you can get in interest from a bond, plus the chance at appreciation, stocks will do well.
Right now the PE ratio of the S&P500 is very high by historical standards, but as long as events go smoothly in the world, and interest rates stay low, the market will stay up.
One thing I worry about is a debt crisis. Worldwide debt is very very high right now, and that usually results in a debt crisis of some sort. An economic downturn leads to a few companies unable to pay their debts, and that leads to others unable to pay their debts, and it spirals downward into a recession or worse.
The other worry is inflation. If interest rates go up with the US sitting on 23 trillion dollars in federal debt, the amount of interest the federal government pays will go up, which will lead to more borrowing, and more debt, and more interest on that debt, and so on. At that point, the federal reserve will step in and start buying up some of the debt, in effect "printing money," and that will lead to inflation.
There is no risk free investment. Stocks carry short term risk- the ups and downs of the market, but bonds carry long term risk- value being eroded by inflation.
If you have a long time horizon, say 20 or 30 years, the best thing you can do is put all your money into a stock index fund and leave it there. Do not touch it no matter what. Most individual investors buy high and sell low. How many people panicked during the 2008 debt crisis, when the Dow went all the way down to about 6,600, pulled their money out. Now the Dow is close to 29,000. And how many people get all enthused and go back into the market when it's already gone up? People tend to buy high and sell low. The only way to avoid that is to steel yourself, put all the money you can spare for the next couple of decades into the market, and leave it there no matter what.
(01-11-2020, 07:11 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]The stock market is being propped up by low interest rates. Stocks and bonds compete for investment dollars, and as long as you can buy stock and get more in dividends than you can get in interest from a bond, plus the chance at appreciation, stocks will do well.
Right now the PE ratio of the S&P500 is very high by historical standards, but as long as events go smoothly in the world, and interest rates stay low, the market will stay up.
One thing I worry about is a debt crisis. Worldwide debt is very very high right now, and that usually results in a debt crisis of some sort. An economic downturn leads to a few companies unable to pay their debts, and that leads to others unable to pay their debts, and it spirals downward into a recession or worse.
The other worry is inflation. If interest rates go up with the US sitting on 23 trillion dollars in federal debt, the amount of interest the federal government pays will go up, which will lead to more borrowing, and more debt, and more interest on that debt, and so on. At that point, the federal reserve will step in and start buying up some of the debt, in effect "printing money," and that will lead to inflation.
There is no risk free investment. Stocks carry short term risk- the ups and downs of the market, but bonds carry long term risk- value being eroded by inflation.
If you have a long time horizon, say 20 or 30 years, the best thing you can do is put all your money into a stock index fund and leave it there. Do not touch it no matter what. Most individual investors buy high and sell low. How many people panicked during the 2008 debt crisis, when the Dow went all the way down to about 6,600, pulled their money out. Now the Dow is close to 29,000. And how many people get all enthused and go back into the market when it's already gone up? People tend to buy high and sell low. The only way to avoid that is to steel yourself, put all the money you can spare for the next couple of decades into the market, and leave it there no matter what.
One of the lessons of the Obama years is that printing money does *not* lead to inflation on its own. Inflation is caused by shortages. Whether that shortage is caused by bad harvests, factories breaking down, unforeseen increases in demand for real goods, or Arabs refusing to sell oil, a shortage is a sufficient ingredient for inflation. The other thing that causes inflation is currency displacement, for instance when Argentinians decide that they want to deal in dollars even though their government deals in pesos. That causes the value of the peso to go down, in other words, inflation in Argentina.
Didn't Trump say the stock market was in a huge bubble in his election campaign?
(01-16-2020, 06:52 PM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ]Didn't Trump say the stock market was in a huge bubble in his election campaign?
Did he? Maybe you should source your claim.
Check the Fed's "repo" window to see what is powering stocks.
(01-21-2020, 08:57 AM)Gabe Wrote: [ -> ] (01-17-2020, 06:28 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]Cool.
To be fair, Trump said LOTS of things during his campaign(s).
Don't they all.
I wonder how the American people would react to a non-sycophantic politician who just honestly told people like it was. No platitudes, no niceties... just the reality.
America is only number 1 in the world at 2 things... childhood obesity and military spending. We have more aircraft carriers than the entire world put together.
(01-21-2020, 10:09 AM)TrivialPursuit Wrote: [ -> ] (01-21-2020, 08:57 AM)Gabe Wrote: [ -> ]To be fair, Trump said LOTS of things during his campaign(s).
Don't they all.
I wonder how the American people would react to a non-sycophantic politician who just honestly told people like it was. No platitudes, no niceties... just the reality.
America is only number 1 in the world at 2 things... childhood obesity and military spending. We have more aircraft carriers than the entire world put together.
I think we might be number 1 in the world in economic opportunity. When you combine the relative ease of opening a new business with the rule of law and the huge market, that's the reason so many immigrants want to come here and start businesses. Maybe someone can think of a better place for that; I can't.
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