(03-08-2020, 08:42 PM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ]Bloodbath incoming.
Thanks Trump
Yes, the guy who got called a racist for wanting to close the border is responsible for a virus coming across the border and markets being impacted.
Stock market movements are due to Trump was the premise you wanted.
I'm just following your rules.
(03-08-2020, 08:53 PM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ]Stock market movements are due to Trump was the premise you wanted.
I'm just following your rules.
Trumps policies and deregulation brought the market to nearly 30k. It will get back there soon.
The question is will Trump take the market lower than Obama?
There is no escaping the fact that if people decide to stay home, and not even go out to dinner, much less on an airplane or a cruise, it is going to cause a massive shock to the economy. This is what the stock market seems to be finally grasping. When cruise lines and airlines and hotels go bankrupt, they don't pay the people they owe money to, and those people don't pay the people they owe money to, and the dominoes start to fall. Then people get scared, as the probably should be, and they put off any purchase that is optional, and the economy spirals downward.
I don't know why it has taken the stock market so long to grasp this. When Venice, Italy, and Milan, Italy, are on lockdown, things are getting very serious.
So Trump is kind of stuck here. Downplaying the seriousness of this in order to save the economy might actually do more harm to the economy than good, because if the virus spreads because we didn't take it seriously enough, the economy will be hurt even worse.
The only thing downplaying the seriousness of this are the statistics and facts.
As Bill Mahar said, a recession would be worth it.
(03-08-2020, 08:53 PM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ]Stock market movements are due to Trump was the premise you wanted.
I'm just following your rules.
Dude didn't you know?
Stock market good= Trump is the best!
Stock market bad = Blame it on someone or something else!
(03-09-2020, 07:41 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]The only thing downplaying the seriousness of this are the statistics and facts.
As Bill Mahar said, a recession would be worth it.
The facts are, somewhere between 9 and 40 million people get the flu each year in the United States, in spite of all the vaccinations. Approximately 10,000, give or take a few thousand, die of it each year. The Covid-19 death rate is currently measured somewhere around 2%. But even if the death rate is only 1%, if 10 million people get it, 100,000 people will die of it. This is why people are alarmed. It appears to be extremely contagious, and more deadly than the flu. And we don't yet have a vaccine for it like we have for the flu.
The race to contain it is going to hammer the economy.
(03-09-2020, 08:57 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-09-2020, 08:51 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]The facts are, somewhere between 9 and 40 million people get the flu each year in the United States, in spite of all the vaccinations. Approximately 10,000, give or take a few thousand, die of it each year. The Covid-19 death rate is currently measured somewhere around 2%. But even if the death rate is only 1%, if 10 million people get it, 100,000 people will die of it. This is why people are alarmed. It appears to be extremely contagious, and more deadly than the flu. And we don't yet have a vaccine for it like we have for the flu.
The race to contain it is going to hammer the economy.
How do we contain it?
Stay home. Don't go on cruise ships. Don't go to sporting events. Don't travel to Europe or Asia. Don't travel at all. Stay home.
Some countries will take extreme measures, such as Italy and China have done, and lock down entire cities. Some countries are cancelling school. Some universities are switching classes to online instruction.
Stuff like that.
And people who are on the fence about eating out, or buying a new car, or going on vacation, will decide to just wait until things clear up.
These types of steps will hammer a world economy that was already burdened by excessive debt levels, and central banks that had already pushed interest rates down to the point where they can't push them much lower without going to negative interest rates.
No, we are not all going to die, and eventually, we will overcome this, but a lot of stock investors are deciding they'd rather not own stocks now, and so the market goes down.
(03-09-2020, 09:13 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ] (03-09-2020, 08:57 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]How do we contain it?
Stay home. Don't go on cruise ships. Don't go to sporting events. Don't travel to Europe or Asia. Don't travel at all. Stay home.
Some countries will take extreme measures, such as Italy and China have done, and lock down entire cities. Some countries are cancelling school. Some universities are switching classes to online instruction.
Stuff like that.
And people who are on the fence about eating out, or buying a new car, or going on vacation, will decide to just wait until things clear up.
These types of steps will hammer a world economy that was already burdened by excessive debt levels, and central banks that had already pushed interest rates down to the point where they can't push them much lower without going to negative interest rates.
No, we are not all going to die, and eventually, we will overcome this, but a lot of stock investors are deciding they'd rather not own stocks now, and so the market goes down.
We can agree to disagree that people should "stay home" until a vaccine is available in 17 months.
(03-09-2020, 08:57 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-09-2020, 08:51 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]The facts are, somewhere between 9 and 40 million people get the flu each year in the United States, in spite of all the vaccinations. Approximately 10,000, give or take a few thousand, die of it each year. The Covid-19 death rate is currently measured somewhere around 2%. But even if the death rate is only 1%, if 10 million people get it, 100,000 people will die of it. This is why people are alarmed. It appears to be extremely contagious, and more deadly than the flu. And we don't yet have a vaccine for it like we have for the flu.
The race to contain it is going to hammer the economy.
How do we contain it?
I thought it was contained.
The true black swan event is the imploding economy; the virus was just the trigger event that exposed a rickety foundation that can't handle the strain.
(03-09-2020, 02:38 PM)Byron LeftTown Wrote: [ -> ]The true black swan event is the imploding economy; the virus was just the trigger event that exposed a rickety foundation that can't handle the strain.
Now is your time to shine, BLT. I only ask that you dispatch of me quickly as I claw in emaciated desperation at your bunker entrance.
(03-09-2020, 02:38 PM)Byron LeftTown Wrote: [ -> ]The true black swan event is the imploding economy; the virus was just the trigger event that exposed a rickety foundation that can't handle the strain.
I’m out of gold and into Oil. Keep it coming preppers, the market shenanigans were too much sale to pass up today.
(03-09-2020, 03:54 PM)HandsomeRob86 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-09-2020, 02:38 PM)Byron LeftTown Wrote: [ -> ]The true black swan event is the imploding economy; the virus was just the trigger event that exposed a rickety foundation that can't handle the strain.
I’m out of gold and into Oil. Keep it coming preppers, the market shenanigans were too much sale to pass up today.
It depends on what oil companies you bought. Some of them are going to go bankrupt.
I wouldn't exactly jump on oil or cruise lines right now. IF I was going to buy individual stocks right now (something I very rarely do) I would be looking at the long term rather than the short term. Things in the tech sector are looking pretty good right now.
The market is a mess between "the virus", oil plunging and an election coming up. Add to that the meeting with The Fed and what they might do along with possible "stimulus" for certain sectors. The world economy is basically coming to a screeching halt.
What is really disturbing is the yield on the 10 year treasury note right now. Less than 1%. Great news if you're looking to borrow money (mortgage rates should drop some more) bad news if you have money in the bank (less interest earned).
None of this really has to do with President Trump or his policies. It's more about the MSM and social media fueling the fear of something that we shouldn't be afraid of.
Right now I am staying put with a vast majority of my money in cash. When the market does find it's bottom (which I think is close) then I'll start "stepping in" cautiously. I expect more volatility this week with the market perhaps making up the losses from today throughout the week.
Alcohol stocks usually prosper in times of recession.
(03-09-2020, 05:56 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ] (03-09-2020, 03:54 PM)HandsomeRob86 Wrote: [ -> ]I’m out of gold and into Oil. Keep it coming preppers, the market shenanigans were too much sale to pass up today.
It depends on what oil companies you bought. Some of them are going to go bankrupt.
Every companies goes bankrupt eventually, but I doubt any of the big 4 are going any time this decade.
(03-09-2020, 07:28 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ]Alcohol stocks usually prosper in times of recession.
And McDonald’s. But it wasn’t a good enough deal for me to get on. AAPL was okay for retail. But it’s hard to pass up some of the big oil companies at less than 15 p/e and over 7% dividend yields.
(03-09-2020, 03:15 PM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ] (03-09-2020, 02:38 PM)Byron LeftTown Wrote: [ -> ]The true black swan event is the imploding economy; the virus was just the trigger event that exposed a rickety foundation that can't handle the strain.
Now is your time to shine, BLT. I only ask that you dispatch of me quickly as I claw in emaciated desperation at your bunker entrance.
Naw, I didn't forget my friends. I got a bucket of hard red winter wheat set aside just for you, homey. Just watch out for my wife as you make the approach. She sometimes "forgets the passcodes"; I think she just likes winging people.