(12-22-2023, 11:26 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]The receivers have had solid separation in lots of games - but have been locked up pretty effectively by the better secondaries they've faced.
Thus far the avg separation for our guys listed at next gen stats is:
Ridley 2.3 yards
Zay Jones 2.4 yards
(before you stick your foot in your mouth bashing these numbers - let me tell you other receivers at 2.3/2.4 - Metcalf, Higgins, Pitts, Pickens, Hopkins, A Cooper, Mike Evans)
Moving on:
Christian Kirk - 3.1 yards
Evan Engram - 3.5 yards
These are the only 4 with enough action to be listed among the NFL leaders on that site.
Separation is not a glaring issue on the whole for our corps, but they have been locked up on occasion this year.
The part about other guys having similar separation numbers is worth considering, but when you look at the guys on that list they're almost all physically overpowering defenders at the point of catch and making catches even when well covered. With a few exceptions Ridley doesn't do much of that. Really he doesn't do much of anything special right now. He's good good speed, not great speed, he's got okay size, not great size, he's got good hands, not great hands, etc. And he tends to run the wrong route sometimes, which means he's either not paying enough attention in practice, or in the games, neither is good.
He's a good receiver, not a great receiver. If he could be signed for a very team friendly deal that's all about incentives he'd be worth signing if the draft pick we'd give up isn't a consideration.
However, the draft pick is there, and it's a problem. Is he worth a pick that could be turned into a good offensive lineman plus a big contract? Probably not, especially since he's probably not looking for a 4 year $50 million dollar deal with 15 of it guaranteed, which is the kind of deal he's played up to.
(12-24-2023, 11:30 AM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ] (12-22-2023, 11:26 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]The receivers have had solid separation in lots of games - but have been locked up pretty effectively by the better secondaries they've faced.
Thus far the avg separation for our guys listed at next gen stats is:
Ridley 2.3 yards
Zay Jones 2.4 yards
(before you stick your foot in your mouth bashing these numbers - let me tell you other receivers at 2.3/2.4 - Metcalf, Higgins, Pitts, Pickens, Hopkins, A Cooper, Mike Evans)
Moving on:
Christian Kirk - 3.1 yards
Evan Engram - 3.5 yards
These are the only 4 with enough action to be listed among the NFL leaders on that site.
Separation is not a glaring issue on the whole for our corps, but they have been locked up on occasion this year.
The part about other guys having similar separation numbers is worth considering, but when you look at the guys on that list they're almost all physically overpowering defenders at the point of catch and making catches even when well covered. With a few exceptions Ridley doesn't do much of that. Really he doesn't do much of anything special right now. He's good good speed, not great speed, he's got okay size, not great size, he's got good hands, not great hands, etc. And he tends to run the wrong route sometimes, which means he's either not paying enough attention in practice, or in the games, neither is good.
He's a good receiver, not a great receiver. If he could be signed for a very team friendly deal that's all about incentives he'd be worth signing if the draft pick we'd give up isn't a consideration.
However, the draft pick is there, and it's a problem. Is he worth a pick that could be turned into a good offensive lineman plus a big contract? Probably not, especially since he's probably not looking for a 4 year $50 million dollar deal with 15 of it guaranteed, which is the kind of deal he's played up to.
Your overstatement of the case against Ridley is good but not great.
I'm disappointed in the drops. And he is undersized to be an X receiver. I would offer him a team friendly deal as well based on everything going on. And that's about all I agree on.
The "wrong routes" thing is way overblown. People latched on to that play when TL was frustrated that he wasn't looking for the ball on an early/off-schedule throw due to pressure and have blathered "wrong routes, wrong routes" incessantly since.
Nah.
In that stretch of losses - it wouldn't shock me if he actually
never ran the wrong route. Not looking for the ball or not knowing he's a read instead of a decoy certainly happened 2 or 3 times. I doubt there have been any real instances of "wrong routes" since the early weeks of the season.
He has clearly shown that he's a great receiver in the past but we only got flashes of that this year.
So you do what you want with the "good vs great" generalizations. That's pretty meaningless to me. Production is what matters. He's on pace for 948 yds and 7 TDs plus ~250 yards of DPI calls. Pick your generalization for that I guess, but I do know it is rarely "easy" to replace that with much certainty in an offseason.
My only real gripes are that he's having a bit of a tough time dealing with the frustration of not being more productive and the drops - which haven't been prolific, but too many nonetheless.
I think with a better line and a few tweaks in next year's playbook he could have a good year or two in him putting up big numbers. An incentive laden deal with modest guaranteed money and a team out after 2 years might get it done. Who knows? I'd try that approach if it were me.
(12-24-2023, 12:09 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (12-24-2023, 11:30 AM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ]The part about other guys having similar separation numbers is worth considering, but when you look at the guys on that list they're almost all physically overpowering defenders at the point of catch and making catches even when well covered. With a few exceptions Ridley doesn't do much of that. Really he doesn't do much of anything special right now. He's good good speed, not great speed, he's got okay size, not great size, he's got good hands, not great hands, etc. And he tends to run the wrong route sometimes, which means he's either not paying enough attention in practice, or in the games, neither is good.
He's a good receiver, not a great receiver. If he could be signed for a very team friendly deal that's all about incentives he'd be worth signing if the draft pick we'd give up isn't a consideration.
However, the draft pick is there, and it's a problem. Is he worth a pick that could be turned into a good offensive lineman plus a big contract? Probably not, especially since he's probably not looking for a 4 year $50 million dollar deal with 15 of it guaranteed, which is the kind of deal he's played up to.
Your overstatement of the case against Ridley is good but not great.
I'm disappointed in the drops. And he is undersized to be an X receiver. I would offer him a team friendly deal as well based on everything going on. And that's about all I agree on.
The "wrong routes" thing is way overblown. People latched on to that play when TL was frustrated that he wasn't looking for the ball on an early/off-schedule throw due to pressure and have blathered "wrong routes, wrong routes" incessantly since.
Nah.
In that stretch of losses - it wouldn't shock me if he actually never ran the wrong route. Not looking for the ball or not knowing he's a read instead of a decoy certainly happened 2 or 3 times. I doubt there have been any real instances of "wrong routes" since the early weeks of the season.
He has clearly shown that he's a great receiver in the past but we only got flashes of that this year.
So you do what you want with the "good vs great" generalizations. That's pretty meaningless to me. Production is what matters. He's on pace for 948 yds and 7 TDs plus ~250 yards of DPI calls. Pick your generalization for that I guess, but I do know it is rarely "easy" to replace that with much certainty in an offseason.
My only real gripes are that he's having a bit of a tough time dealing with the frustration of not being more productive and the drops - which haven't been prolific, but too many nonetheless.
I think with a better line and a few tweaks in next year's playbook he could have a good year or two in him putting up big numbers. An incentive laden deal with modest guaranteed money and a team out after 2 years might get it done. Who knows? I'd try that approach if it were me.
His stats aren't terrible or anything, but you have to consider it's on 109 targets and he's not even first in yards on the team at receiver, and if you count Engram he's in third place for catches with Christian Kirk essentially having missed three games at this point.
Ridley is a good receiver, he's just not a number one type receiver, but most teams don't have a true number one guy, either, so I don't hold it against him. There just aren't enough of them for every team to have one. I just don't think the Jaguars can afford to sign him, it'll need to be some other team giving him the guaranteed money and seeing if he can get good for them.
I can honestly say unless Ridley ends the last three games with something like 300 yards and 3 TDs its highly unlikely we make a move to resign him
(12-24-2023, 01:33 PM)SuperJville Wrote: [ -> ]I can honestly say unless Ridley ends the last three games with something like 300 yards and 3 TDs its highly unlikely we make a move to resign him
You can "honestly" say you've made a wild guess about the team's offseason intentions at WR.
Great
Need a big game from Ridley today
(12-24-2023, 04:07 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (12-24-2023, 01:33 PM)SuperJville Wrote: [ -> ]I can honestly say unless Ridley ends the last three games with something like 300 yards and 3 TDs its highly unlikely we make a move to resign him
You can "honestly" say you've made a wild guess about the team's offseason intentions at WR.
Great
Oh F off
It’s a message board.
Ridley has zero receptions in what arguably is the most crucial game we needed him to go off in
Can we just title this a "Ridley is finally in Smash thread" and move the thread to throw off the algorithm?
Yeah, Ridley isn't the same player
Would rather have a 2nd rounder.
Even if it will be a prospect with a torn ACL that Baalke will fall in love with.
How much does he need to be signed for so the Jags get draft compensation for him?
(12-24-2023, 06:27 PM)SamusAranX Wrote: [ -> ]Ridley has zero receptions in what arguably is the most crucial game we needed him to go off in
Just give me Kirk and Jones
At this point I would let Ridley walk. He's not worth the 2nd round pick that he would cost and it's pretty frustrating saying that. I was sure that he was going to be a 1400 yard receiver for us.
Say what we want but Ridley has been consistently healthy, dude can bend and stretch in whatever direction.
I’m still not sure what we do with him with Zjones and Agnew likely gone In the off-season
(01-01-2024, 03:00 PM)MojoKing Wrote: [ -> ]Say what we want but Ridley has been consistently healthy, dude can bend and stretch in whatever direction.
I’m still not sure what we do with him with Zjones and Agnew likely gone In the off-season
Zay has a year left if they want him.
I would not be surprised a bit if Zay and Rid are both back next season.
Just comes down to money - who gets big deals and who gets tagged elsewhere on the roster.
If we didn’t have to give up a second rounder to keep him and he was willing to take a cheap prove it deal, I’d be open to the idea of bringing him back.
But I just can’t see how he’s possibly worth a second round pick + money. Now granted, he’s more useful than our most recent second round pick so I’m sure we’ll pick some more garbage with that pick, but you really just can’t justify it.
He might be good on a team with a real alpha #1, but we don’t have that. Kirk is a stud but he’s a slot guy. We really need a big bodied outside guy who can actually win a contested catch. Higgins, Evans, a guy like that. Ridley is just a watered down Kirk without the savviness who is clumsy at the point of the catch.