Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Quote:Every time someone says "You can get a RB in the 5th round" i think to myself really? For every Jordan Howard there's 10 bums that will be out of the league in 2 years if not more.


I'm not pounding my fist on the table for an RB at 4 but it's not as easy to find RBs outside of the 1st round as everyone here seems to think it is.

 

There's no hard and fast pattern, but there have been so many first round busts at RB in years when rounds 2-4 yielded quality backs, that many are hesitant to jump on a RB in the top ten. 

 

2014:

Bishop Sankey in the 1st round (edit: Sankey was pick #54 overall - no backs taken in the first that year)

 

* DeVonta Freeman and James White in the 4th Round.

 

2013 :

No first round back.

2nd round: Giovanni Bernard, LeVeon Bell, Eddie Lacy

6th round:Andre Ellington , Spencer Ware

 

2012: 

Trent Richardson in the first round. Doug Martin at pick #31.

 

3rd round: Bernard Pierce

4th Round:  Lamar Miller , Robert Turbin

6th round: Alfred Morris

 

--------------------------------------------------------------

 

The point is that good backs are indeed there for the taking in mid rounds  -- so you better be damn sure about a guy being a superstar to take him top five when you could likely get a good one in the next three rounds. 

 

It's not automatic that you'll land a mid-round gem of course, but it's clearly do-able. 

Fournette weighed 228 at pro day, but won't be running the 40 again.  He'll keep his time of 4.51 at 240lbs.  Probably a smart move.

Quote:There's no hard and fast pattern, but there have been so many first round busts at RB in years when rounds 2-4 yielded quality backs, that many are hesitant to jump on a RB in the top ten.

2014:

Bishop Sankey in the 1st round


* DeVonta Freeman and James White in the 4th Round.

2013 :

No first round back.

2nd round: Giovanni Bernard, LeVeon Bell, Eddie Lacy

6th round:Andre Ellington , Spencer Ware

2012:

Trent Richardson in the first round. Doug Martin at pick #31.


3rd round: Bernard Pierce

4th Round: Lamar Miller , Robert Turbin

6th round: Alfred Morris


--------------------------------------------------------------


The point is that good backs are indeed there for the taking in mid rounds -- so you better be damn sure about a guy being a superstar to take him top five when you could likely get a good one in the next three rounds.


It's not automatic that you'll land a mid-round gem of course, but it's clearly do-able.

These charts cover it all pretty well.

We went the route of finding a later RB with Yeldon, and it didn't work out.  Examples of success/failure can be found for every circumstance.

 

That being said, there's always value in drafting for value.  As deep as this draft is, I'd be happy with trading out and getting more picks in what is a deep draft in many positions.  Many QB teams have made moves prior to the draft because the QBs aren't strong, so being/not being able to trade down is an entirely different discussion - but would benefit if we could.

 

There's talk that there's a wide gap between Fournette and the field, and that Fournette's rated second only to Ezekiel Elliot in recent times.  If that's true and he's available, I find it hard to pass unless they have a DL ranked higher on their board.

Quote:There's no hard and fast pattern, but there have been so many first round busts at RB in years when rounds 2-4 yielded quality backs, that many are hesitant to jump on a RB in the top ten. 

 

2014:

Bishop Sankey in the 1st round

 

* DeVonta Freeman and James White in the 4th Round.

 

2013 :

No first round back.

2nd round: Giovanni Bernard, LeVeon Bell, Eddie Lacy

6th round:Andre Ellington , Spencer Ware

 

2012: 

Trent Richardson in the first round. Doug Martin at pick #31.

 

3rd round: Bernard Pierce

4th Round:  Lamar Miller , Robert Turbin

6th round: Alfred Morris

 

--------------------------------------------------------------

 

The point is that good backs are indeed there for the taking in mid rounds  -- so you better be damn sure about a guy being a superstar to take him top five when you could likely get a good one in the next three rounds. 

 

It's not automatic that you'll land a mid-round gem of course, but it's clearly do-able. 

Bishop Sankey was drafted in the 2nd round in 2014, not the first.

 

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2014

Quote:These charts cover it all pretty well.

 

There were some really good first round backs taken during that period that were very productive and the numbers reflect that.

 

There was also 2008 included there which produced CJ, Mendenhall, Felix jones, Jonathan Stewart and Darren McFadden all in the first round. 

 

I think we can agree that there has been a clear shift in philosophy regarding drafting RBs in the first round (and their salaries) since that time. 

We may technically be in the same NFL "era" but it's clear that teams don't value the RB the same way they did 10 years ago. 

 

I see those charts as much broader stroke of the brush than the point I'm making - which is more specific and current. 

 

I think there are three, maybe four first round backs in this draft. Which is crazy.  But I don't like any of them in the top ten. 

Quote:Most experts seem to agree that he is a generational talent at the position. But you'll get nothing but venom spewed here from the wannabe message board scouts. I think there will be a lot of good choices at 4. But I would not be upset in the slightest if Leonard was wearing teal next year.

I'd be upset if he wasn't the pick.  We need help on offense.  Taking an O-lineman at #4 would be a reach, but it's not out of the realm of possibilities.  If we go defense with that pick, we better hope he is a perennial All-Pro for the next 10 years to justify the pick.  Otherwise, improve your offense immediately with Fournette then 2 OL in Rds 2-5.  I would even suggest taking 3 OL overall (draft a C and move Linder to RG).

Quote:There were some really good first round backs taken during that period that were very productive and the numbers reflect that.

 

There was also 2008 included there which produced CJ, Mendenhall, Felix jones, Jonathan Stewart and Darren McFadden all in the first round. 

 

I think we can agree that there has been a clear shift in philosophy regarding drafting RBs in the first round (and their salaries) since that time. 

We may technically been in the same NFL "era" but it's clear that teams don't value the RB the same way they did 10 years ago. 

 

I see those charts as much broader stroke of the brush than the point I'm making - which is more specific and current. 

 

I think there are three, maybe four first round backs in this draft. Which is crazy.  But I don't like any of them in the top ten. 

 

Quote:There were some really good first round backs taken during that period that were very productive and the numbers reflect that.

 

There was also 2008 included there which produced CJ, Mendenhall, Felix jones, Jonathan Stewart and Darren McFadden all in the first round. 

 

I think we can agree that there has been a clear shift in philosophy regarding drafting RBs in the first round (and their salaries) since that time. 

We may technically been in the same NFL "era" but it's clear that teams don't value the RB the same way they did 10 years ago. 

 

I see those charts as much broader stroke of the brush than the point I'm making - which is more specific and current. 

 

I think there are three, maybe four first round backs in this draft. Which is crazy.  But I don't like any of them in the top ten. 

I think it reinforces the point that there isn't much difference between a 1st round running back and a 3rd round running back. So in a deep running back class it begs the question, is a running back picked in the top 5 really going to give that much more production than a running back in the 2nd or 3rd to be worth a pick of that value. I would think not, but can see why others could see Fournette as being a guy whos production would far exceed any of the later round backs.  

 

Also interesting how bad the 4th round backs seemed to be

Quote:I think it reinforces the point that there isn't much difference between a 1st round running back and a 3rd round running back. So in a deep running back class it begs the question, is a running back picked in the top 5 really going to give that much more production than a running back in the 2nd or 3rd to be worth a pick of that value. I would think not, but can see why others could see Fournette as being a guy whos production would far exceed any of the later round backs.  

 

Also interesting how bad the 4th round backs seemed to be

 

You're seeing what you choose to see.  Are you likely to get guys like Ezekiel Elliot or Fred Taylor high in the first, or in the third round?

 

It's also why teams go after safeties so high like Eric Berry.

 

If he's rated and expected to be a special player, you take him.  Fournette is earning this kind of talk.  Let's not pretend he hasn't just because he isn't our preferred pick or that it's our opinion we should go after a RB later.

Quote:You're seeing what you choose to see.  Are you likely to get guys like Ezekiel Elliot or Fred Taylor high in the first, or in the third round?

 

It's also why teams go after safeties so high like Eric Berry.

 

If he's rated and expected to be a special player, you take him.  Fournette is earning this kind of talk.  Let's not pretend he hasn't just because he isn't our preferred pick or that it's our opinion we should go after a RB later.

Read the posts pirkster " I would think not, but can see why others could see Fournette as being a guy whos production would far exceed any of the later round backs." . I'd love to see Fournette play here, simply a case of personal preference that I prefer other options later instead of taking him in the first. I can easily see why he is highly regarded and will be a top 15 pick.

Quote: I'd love to see Fournette play here, simply a case of personal preference that I prefer other options later instead of taking him in the first. I can easily see why he is highly regarded and will be a top 15 pick.

 

I feel the same. 

 

I'm scared of him that early because I'm convinced that he will require an above average run-blocking line to produce numbers that are remotely worthy of a top 5 selection. 

Clearly - the Jaguars don't have that line as things stand. 

 

If they pick Fournette at #4 - I really hope and pray we see a guard picked in round 2 and at least one more lineman w/ upside subsequently. 

(I hope they do that stuff regardless, but it seems a dire necessity should they draft a back in the 1st round given our current O-Line)

Quote:Every time someone says "You can get a RB in the 5th round" i think to myself really? For every Jordan Howard there's 10 bums that will be out of the league in 2 years if not more.


I'm not pounding my fist on the table for an RB at 4 but it's not as easy to find RBs outside of the 1st round as everyone here seems to think it is.

I hate that too, you can get a great player at any position in any round if you hit on them, the NFL is full of good players at every position from all rounds and undrafted. But people still want throw out RB like its the only position.

 

LF is a transcendent talent you dont find often.

If he's the top player on your board that's who you get

Quote:I feel the same.


I'm scared of him that early because I'm convinced that he will require an above average run-blocking line to produce numbers that are remotely worthy of a top 5 selection.

Clearly - the Jaguars don't have that line as things stand.


If they pick Fournette at #4 - I really hope and pray we see a guard picked in round 2 and at least one more lineman w/ upside subsequently.

(I hope they do that stuff regardless, but it seems a dire necessity should they draft a back in the 1st round given our current O-Line)

The line is kind of the elephant in the room. I mean great we have the defense looking slick and ready to rumble but this team ain't winning 8 games this year if the line is bad.


I hope Marrone doesn't have blind confidence in Cann/Omameh/Parnell from working close with them as the Oline guy.

This thread has the feels of when posters were turning their nose up at the idea of drafting JJ Watt because he was "too big" and didn't fit our "needs" because he wasn't an RDE.

 

Stop manufacturing half baked reasons for not wanting him if the club feels he's the best pick.

Quote:This thread has the feels of when posters were turning their nose up at the idea of drafting JJ Watt because he was "too big" and didn't fit our "needs" because he wasn't an RDE.


Stop manufacturing half baked reasons for not wanting him if the club feels he's the best pick.

People also said he has a high floor but a low ceiling. No one knows.

Between the Fournette and Allen constant badgering, it's getting quite tiresome.

 

You certainly do not hear this type of bellyaching and downplaying Fournette anywhere else like you do here.

He's a better prospect than Ezekiel Elliott was last year? I'm way out of the draft loop this year and have only been mildly interested, but if this is the case......I'd be all for it.

Quote:Between the Fournette and Allen constant badgering, it's getting quite tiresome.


You certainly do not hear this type of bellyaching and downplaying Fournette anywhere else like you do here.

Oh you mean Jon Allen? The trifecta of bad? Bad athlete/injury concerns/undersized but still somehow Top 5 propsect on almost every single analysts rankings?


Weird how that's the extreme minority anywhere else but you hear the same stuff about Allen and Fournette that a certain someone fills every single thread with repeatedly until he gets a few other posters to buy into his crap.

Quote:He's a better prospect than Ezekiel Elliott was last year? I'm way out of the draft loop this year and have only been mildly interested, but if this is the case......I'd be all for it.

 

If you're going by NFL.coms grades. He's slightly below, but comparable.

 

Elliot 7.09

Fournette 6.8

 

I don't think he's quite the prospect Elliot was. Elliot has better vision, quickness, and patience IMO.