Quote:Not sure if i'm remembering correctly, but the draft with Ronnie Brown and Macalister (cannot recall his name) were highly drafted prospects. If I recall correctly, we drafted MJD the same year as Brown and we know how that turned out. I think it was a little after that time frame that RB's started to become devaued, also not a coincedence the QB's started to blow up the league and the RB wasn't the workhorse he once was.
Ronnie Brown was 2005. MJD was 2006.
MJD was in the same draft as Reggie Bush though. Deangelo Williams was also a first round pick that year.
Quote:Ronnie Brown was 2005. MJD was 2006.
MJD was in the same draft as Reggie Bush though. Deangelo Williams was also a first round pick that year.
Yep, thanks. It was cadilac williams I was trying to remember too. He went early that year as well.
Looks like fournette skipped agility drills at his pro day. Quite concerning
Quote:Most scouting reports mention that he struggled out of shotgun and has issues with scheme fit, lateral agility, vision, blocking, and receiving. What I don't get how people admit to all of that and still think it's a slam dunk he dominates at the NFL level.
Struggled being a relative term... instead of 6.5 YPC overall, he's closer to 5. Part of this could also be attributed to nobody giving 2 craps about LSUs passing game. When LSU goes into the shotgun, it isn't like Danny Etling is going to beat you with his arm or any of those garbage wideouts are going to do anything to you, so you stack the box, you cheat because you know what is coming. LSU wasn't fooling anyone last year, the entire offense was Fournette and he still averaged .4 YPC higher than Dalvin Cook.
Imagine it... Thumbtacks @ Jags, 4th quarter, Jags down 3 with 4 min to go, Fournette with 25 carries for 150 yards, Titans defense is gassed from trying to stop Fournette. They start cheating downhill, Cyprien comes up to the line of scrimmage. Logan Ryan 5'11" 195 is matched up alone on AR15 (6'3" 220). Bortles lofts a duck up the sideline as the Titans bite hard on the playaction, AR15 highpoints it, lands, and flings logan ryan to the sideline and scampers in for 6. ahhhh victory.
Quote:Struggled being a relative term... instead of 6.5 YPC overall, he's closer to 5. Part of this could also be attributed to nobody giving 2 craps about LSUs passing game. When LSU goes into the shotgun, it isn't like Danny Etling is going to beat you with his arm or any of those garbage wideouts are going to do anything to you, so you stack the box, you cheat because you know what is coming. LSU wasn't fooling anyone last year, the entire offense was Fournette and he still averaged .4 YPC higher than Dalvin Cook.
In 2015-16, Fournette ran out of shotgun on 22.1% of his attempts and averaged an abysmal 3.50 Yards Created/Attempt on such carries. Over the past two years, no running back (other than Fournette) has averaged fewer than 4.0 Yards Created/Attempt out of shotgun. To me, this is the ultimate dilemma with Fournette.
Yards created? Is this a made up stat?
Quote:In 2015-16, Fournette ran out of shotgun on 22.1% of his attempts and averaged an abysmal 3.50 Yards Created/Attempt on such carries. Over the past two years, no running back (other than Fournette) has averaged fewer than 4.0 Yards Created/Attempt out of shotgun. To me, this is the ultimate dilemma with Fournette.
hmm i think we might be working apples/oranges here. Is that 3.5 created per attempt different than YPC cause the YPC I got was 4.9 out of shotgun. ^^ none of this addresses that nobody respected LSUs passing game so everyone knew exactly what was coming. I do think that if you take a RB at 4, you should probably play to his strengths, at least at first. Even if we do run out of shotgun, that doesn't mean we can't have a fullback or an extra tight end in there. It's just a different personnel set. You can twist up the numbers any way you like really, I mean crap, Dalvin Cook's 3 cone was in the bottom 10%, nobody with a 3 cone so poor has ever gone in the first round.
Quote:hmm i think we might be working apples/oranges here. Is that 3.5 created per attempt different than YPC cause the YPC I got was 4.9 out of shotgun. ^^ none of this addresses that nobody respected LSUs passing game so everyone knew exactly what was coming. I do think that if you take a RB at 4, you should probably play to his strengths, at least at first. Even if we do run out of shotgun, that doesn't mean we can't have a fullback or an extra tight end in there. It's just a different personnel set. You can twist up the numbers any way you like really, I mean crap, Dalvin Cook's 3 cone was in the bottom 10%, nobody with a 3 cone so poor has ever gone in the first round.
Didn't even cite where he pulled that snippet from. Not sure if he is just hiding it because he's embarrassed or just a fan of plagiarism.
Quote:hmm i think we might be working apples/oranges here. Is that 3.5 created per attempt different than YPC cause the YPC I got was 4.9 out of shotgun.
Yards created adjusts for their oline ranks, defense faced ranks, and number in the box so it's got the nice nuance I always look for when possible.
Quote:Didn't even cite where he pulled that snippet from. Not sure if he is just hiding it because he's embarrassed or just a fan of plagiarism.
Found the article, if you read it, you can probably guess why he only posted a small portion without linking the rest...
<a class="bbc_url" href='https://www.fantasyguru.com/articles/yards-created-fournettes-2015-and-2016'>https://www.fantasyguru.com/articles/yards-created-fournettes-2015-and-2016</a>
Quote:Yards created adjusts for their oline ranks, defense faced ranks, and number in the box so it's got the nice nuance I always look for when possible.
So it adds a whole bunch of subjective analysis in order to arrive at a conclusion that isn't actually measurable or reliable?
Quote:So it adds a whole bunch of subjective analysis in order to arrive at a conclusion that isn't actually measurable or reliable?
It's not perfect but it's better far better than flatly saying he sucked because of bad QB play or because he always faced 8 men in the box, talk about subjective analysis. You can use your stats that don't even try to account for that if you want, I'll use the ones that do.
Look I fully realize that a stone age NFL message board (or any message board) is not the place to go if you're wanting acceptance of anything new or analytical so I don't really care if you believe it or not. If you want to put your faith in stats that don't even try to account for variables like types of run, types of formations, types of defenses faced, quality of defenses faced, quality of oline that's completely your prerogative, I'll stick to my adjusted and net stats.
I'm reminded of some phrase about leading horses to water or something...
Quote:It's not perfect but it's better far better than flatly saying he sucked because of bad QB play or because he always faced 8 men in the box, talk about subjective analysis. You can use your stats that don't even try to account for that if you want, I'll use the ones that do.
First of all, I prefer to deal with stats that are actually measured, like yards per carry. This yards created stuff is garbage. He created all the of the yards he got. It's silly to attribute his production to anything other than himself.
Secondly, I'm not even an advocate for Fournette necessarily, but he doesn't and didn't suck. It's ridiculous to suggest he did. Your bias is showing.
Quote:In 2015-16, Fournette ran out of shotgun on 22.1% of his attempts and averaged an abysmal 3.50 Yards Created/Attempt on such carries. Over the past two years, no running back (other than Fournette) has averaged fewer than 4.0 Yards Created/Attempt out of shotgun. To me, this is the ultimate dilemma with Fournette.
And in collage Terrelle Pryor was a QB and Antonio Gates was a basketball player whats your point. Just because he didn`t a lot catch passes or play out of the shotgun much doesn`t mean he A. Can`t do it or B. Can`t learn to do it.
Like others have said our running game was garbage last year and we were behind in most games which inflates our shotgun percentage and makes it look like our offense is built to play out of shotgun when its not because we had no choice but to pass which is easier to do in shotgun.
There`s nothing wrong with using analytics the problem with you using it, is you grab on to one stat and run with it to prove every argument and run away and hide every time someone points out how wrong you are about it.
Quote:First of all, I prefer to deal with stats that are actually measured, like yards per carry. This yards created stuff is garbage. He created all the of the yards he got. It's silly to attribute his production to anything other than himself.
Secondly, I'm not even an advocate for Fournette necessarily, but he doesn't and didn't suck. It's ridiculous to suggest he did. Your bias is showing.
The funniest thing about discussion is how not having a hive mindset means you are biased. Like it's impossible that someone could watch them play for 3 years, then watch a ton of cutups, and look at numbers on top of all of that and come up with a different opinion without having a raging bias.
Quote:There`s nothing wrong with using analytics the problem with you using it, is you grab on to one stat and run with it to prove every argument and run away and hide every time someone points out how wrong you are about it.
Dude I've used tons of different stats over the course of the offseason. This is why it's impossible to have an honest debate. Everyone immediately jumps straight to the logical fallacies.
This is the same asinine badgering that happened to folks who dared question TwitterScout<sup>TM</sup>s spin doctoring of Bridgewater. Similar nonsense is being spewed here against Fournette.
Citing the word "analytics" doesn't mean you understand analytics or use them properly. You're simply hiding behind a word without having the first clue about what you're trying to talk about, with less understanding of the concept than those you're arguing with.