(02-01-2018, 11:48 PM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ] (02-01-2018, 11:40 PM)Eric1 Wrote: [ -> ]Still have ARob to worry about. His contract isn't going to be any less than what Davante Adams just got. That's going to be his floor.
Only loss might be someone like Fowler? We haven't had pass rushers in forever, but now we can afford to just dump em? Hopefully they can strike gold on another Ngakoue in the 3rd round then.
I have never said we couldn't afford Cousins right now. We absolutely could, but I'd prefer to try and keep up a long term success, rather than throwing all the eggs into the basket for 2 years.
We can easily sign Arob too.
Yeah they might decide to trade him instead of paying him the big money he would command. Depends how he develops.
Think about it this way. If we're sticking with Bortles we'll be playing him 25+ million in 2019 regardless.
It'd nice be great if we had a great rookie QB on a shiny rookie contract for the next 4/5 but I don't seem that happening either.
I simply don't understand how people can go from saying Bortles is one of the worst QBs in the league, who simply got carried by a great Defense. Then completely flip it and say he wont get anything less than $25m a year.. What? Don't give me that [BLEEP] that, that's the going rate of a starting QB when so many of you have said that Bortles is god awful.
Well [BLEEP], then lets just sign everybody since we have more money than we know what to do with.
Pay Cousins the most money in NFL history. Make Ramsey the highest paid CB in the NFL. Ngakoue one of the highest paid Pass Rushers. Give Myles Jack at least $60million over 4 years (Telvin got $50 over 4). ARob at least another $60m+ over 4.
We'll also be able to keep Campbell, Malik and Dareus because you know, money, we got it. Then you add the draft picks, yeah they wont take up a huge amount, but it's still some more $$. On top of everything else. etc etc
Because he is already making 19 million this year. Could he take a pay cut next year? Sure. But why would he?
He would have all the leverage with there being no worthwhile free agent QBs on the market next year. It might not be 25, but if he has a similar year to what he had this year, I could easily see if being around 22-23.
The fear around dismantling the roster for Cousins is comical. Calais is no spring chicken and has a pretty big contract right now that we can opt out of after the 2018 season with minimal dead cap money at that point. I can't imagine we're paying him what he's currently scheduled to make in 2019 and 2020 when he'll be 32 and 33 respectively in those seasons and likely in decline. I'm not saying we're going to outright cut him after this season, but that deal will be reworked no matter who is QB.
The Jags are no where near cap hell even if they pay a QB $25+ million per year. This defense will largely be together, barring significant injury, until 2020 if not longer. Most of the key pieces are already locked up either through 2020 or 2021. We will eventually have to replace Campbell, but that won't be because of finances it will be because of age. We might even exercise our out of Gipson's contract (or rework it) this offseason because his salary is scheduled to go up $2 million next year and I don't know if he's worth an average of $8 million per year over the next 2 years especially considering how much money we already have tied up on the defensive side of the ball. Wouldn't be shocked if Safety is a priorty in the draft if they are considering opting out of Gipson's deal.
Hurns' contract might be opted out of prior to the league year starting as well considering there's no cap hit in doing so and he's not worth what he's scheduled to make IMO. Even if they keep him on the current deal, they can cut him or trade him any time prior to the season and won't be on the hook for anything cap wise. Anyway, my point is money that looks like its locked up right now won't necessarily be locked up when it comes time to sign the younger guys and we're not even up against a wall anyway. These contracts have been very smartly done by the Jags.
(02-02-2018, 12:19 AM)TheSchmidt Wrote: [ -> ]Because he is already making 19 million this year. Could he take a pay cut next year? Sure. But why would he?
He would have all the leverage with there being no worthwhile free agent QBs on the market next year. It might not be 25, but if he has a similar year to what he had this year, I could easily see if being around 22-23.
Which is why I've said from the start that I'd sign him now to a 3-4 year contract worth 17-20m. He isn't taking a pay cut and he isn't strapping this salary cap in any way.
Even if there's no worthwhile free agents next season, Bortles is garbage remember? LOL. Nobody is going to be going after him because he's one of the worst QBs in the entire league, right?
And Regardless, $22m per year is better than $30m per year for Cousins.
(02-02-2018, 12:04 AM)Eric1 Wrote: [ -> ] (02-01-2018, 11:48 PM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]We can easily sign Arob too.
Yeah they might decide to trade him instead of paying him the big money he would command. Depends how he develops.
Think about it this way. If we're sticking with Bortles we'll be playing him 25+ million in 2019 regardless.
It'd nice be great if we had a great rookie QB on a shiny rookie contract for the next 4/5 but I don't seem that happening either.
I simply don't understand how people can go from saying Bortles is one of the worst QBs in the league, who simply got carried by a great Defense. Then completely flip it and say he wont get anything less than $25m a year.. What? Don't give me that [BLEEP] that, that's the going rate of a starting QB when so many of you have said that Bortles is god awful.
Well [BLEEP], then lets just sign everybody since we have more money than we know what to do with.
Pay Cousins the most money in NFL history. Make Ramsey the highest paid CB in the NFL. Ngakoue one of the highest paid Pass Rushers. Give Myles Jack at least $60million over 4 years (Telvin got $50 over 4). ARob at least another $60m+ over 4.
We'll also be able to keep Campbell, Malik and Dareus because you know, money, we got it. Then you add the draft picks, yeah they wont take up a huge amount, but it's still some more $$. On top of everything else. etc etc
Deep breath now Eric. You are getting mad online about football.
If Bortles is the guy we are sticking with in the future (no idea if he is or not) then he's going to cost a minimum of that in 2019. A) If he does really well that's what he will cost and B) If he does meh but we decide to franchise him another year he will cost 25 million for that year.
If he stinks next year he won't be back (or at least he shouldn't). It's pretty simple.
Funnily enough we can do all of that bar keeping Dareus (and Jack hasn't shown he's worth that much yet, you don't wanna pay two off ball LBs that much ideally).
(02-02-2018, 12:21 AM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ]The fear around dismantling the roster for Cousins is comical. Calais is no spring chicken and has a pretty big contract right now that we can opt out of after the 2018 season with minimal dead cap money at that point. I can't imagine we're paying him what he's currently scheduled to make in 2019 and 2020 when he'll be 32 and 33 respectively in those seasons and likely in decline. I'm not saying we're going to outright cut him after this season, but that deal will be reworked no matter who is QB.
The Jags are no where near cap hell even if they pay a QB $25+ million per year. This defense will largely be together, barring significant injury, until 2020 if not longer. Most of the key pieces are already locked up either through 2020 or 2021. We will eventually have to replace Campbell, but that won't be because of finances it will be because of age. We might even exercise our out of Gipson's contract (or rework it) this offseason because his salary is scheduled to go up $2 million next year and I don't know if he's worth an average of $8 million per year over the next 2 years especially considering how much money we already have tied up on the defensive side of the ball. Wouldn't be shocked if Safety is a priorty in the draft if they are considering opting out of Gipson's deal.
Hurns' contract might be opted out of prior to the league year starting as well considering there's no cap hit in doing so and he's not worth what he's scheduled to make IMO. Even if they keep him on the current deal, they can cut him or trade him any time prior to the season and won't be on the hook for anything cap wise. Anyway, my point is money that looks like its locked up right now won't necessarily be locked up when it comes time to sign the younger guys and we're not even up against a wall anyway. These contracts have been very smartly done by the Jags.
All of the money that Campbell would have made past the 2018 season if we cut him, will be going towards paying Ramsey and Ngakoue. If we cut him, it's because of these two players, not because we should be overpaying for Cousins. With that said though, Campbell isn't no string chicken agreed, but he just had a career year. I don't see how he completely falls into nothingness next season.
If we cut Hurns, we better give ARob a monster contract to make sure he stays for the long run, because if we go into the season with Cole and Westbrook as our #1 and #2 WR, that's going to be bad news.
I just don't see the reason to get rid of a sure thing, that this team showed they were this season, in the hopes that Cousins can carry a team like he's Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, or Drew Brees.
If they want to throw the farm at Cousins, then that's fine. It'll simply be Super Bowl, or bust from then on out. 12+ wins min per season and nothing less than a Super Bowl every year.
A lot of this disagreement is based on a lot of people assuming that Cousins is only slightly above average, as I have seen stated many times on the last few pages. If people could be convinced that there was a clear and significant upgrade the money would become a non issue.
Here are Cousins 3 starting years of + stats (Y/A+ NY/A+ AY/A+ ANY/A+ Cmp%+ TD%+ Int%+ Sack%+ Rate+ tallied so that 100 is league average).
111 114 112 114 128 111 107 112 118
122 126 115 119 117 97 107 120 112
111 104 108 104 106 109 99 92 108
That's a whole lot of above average to way above average, and most importantly remarkable consistent above average. The exact type of consistent that would do wonders for an offense with a dominant defense. Worth the money.
(02-02-2018, 12:37 AM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ] (02-02-2018, 12:04 AM)Eric1 Wrote: [ -> ]I simply don't understand how people can go from saying Bortles is one of the worst QBs in the league, who simply got carried by a great Defense. Then completely flip it and say he wont get anything less than $25m a year.. What? Don't give me that [BLEEP] that, that's the going rate of a starting QB when so many of you have said that Bortles is god awful.
Well [BLEEP], then lets just sign everybody since we have more money than we know what to do with.
Pay Cousins the most money in NFL history. Make Ramsey the highest paid CB in the NFL. Ngakoue one of the highest paid Pass Rushers. Give Myles Jack at least $60million over 4 years (Telvin got $50 over 4). ARob at least another $60m+ over 4.
We'll also be able to keep Campbell, Malik and Dareus because you know, money, we got it. Then you add the draft picks, yeah they wont take up a huge amount, but it's still some more $$. On top of everything else. etc etc
Deep breath now Eric. You are getting mad online about football.
If Bortles is the guy we are sticking with in the future (no idea if he is or not) then he's going to cost a minimum of that in 2019. A) If he does really well that's what he will cost and B) If he does meh but we decide to franchise him another year he will cost 25 million for that year.
If he stinks next year he won't be back (or at least he shouldn't). It's pretty simple.
Funnily enough we can do all of that bar keeping Dareus (and Jack hasn't shown he's worth that much yet, you don't wanna pay two off ball LBs that much ideally).
Lol I'm far from mad bud.
I just can't comprehend some of the logic that gets thrown around on this forum. Everybody that down talked Bortles all season long, saying he was the worst starting QB in the league blah blah blah. Are now flipping their tone saying he's going to demand a contract similar to the one Cousins' about to get.
Literally went from saying he's terrible and will soon be out of the league before this season. To saying that he hit his peak and hes average at best after the AFC Championship game. To now saying he'll command top dollar next off season, simply because they want Cousins and are trying to justify paying him that.
(02-02-2018, 12:43 AM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ]A lot of this disagreement is based on a lot of people assuming that Cousins is only slightly above average, as I have seen stated many times on the last few pages. If people could be convinced that there was a clear and significant upgrade the money would become a non issue.
Here are Cousins 3 starting years of + stats (Y/A+ NY/A+ AY/A+ ANY/A+ Cmp%+ TD%+ Int%+ Sack%+ Rate+ tallied so that 100 is league average).
111 114 112 114 128 111 107 112 118
122 126 115 119 117 97 107 120 112
111 104 108 104 106 109 99 92 108
That's a whole lot of above average to way above average, and most importantly remarkable consistent above average. The exact type of consistent that would do wonders for an offense with a dominant defense. Worth the money.
Why hasn't he won more games and carried his team then? 26-30-1 and a 0-1 record is not good my man.
(02-02-2018, 12:41 AM)Eric1 Wrote: [ -> ] (02-02-2018, 12:21 AM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ]The fear around dismantling the roster for Cousins is comical. Calais is no spring chicken and has a pretty big contract right now that we can opt out of after the 2018 season with minimal dead cap money at that point. I can't imagine we're paying him what he's currently scheduled to make in 2019 and 2020 when he'll be 32 and 33 respectively in those seasons and likely in decline. I'm not saying we're going to outright cut him after this season, but that deal will be reworked no matter who is QB.
The Jags are no where near cap hell even if they pay a QB $25+ million per year. This defense will largely be together, barring significant injury, until 2020 if not longer. Most of the key pieces are already locked up either through 2020 or 2021. We will eventually have to replace Campbell, but that won't be because of finances it will be because of age. We might even exercise our out of Gipson's contract (or rework it) this offseason because his salary is scheduled to go up $2 million next year and I don't know if he's worth an average of $8 million per year over the next 2 years especially considering how much money we already have tied up on the defensive side of the ball. Wouldn't be shocked if Safety is a priorty in the draft if they are considering opting out of Gipson's deal.
Hurns' contract might be opted out of prior to the league year starting as well considering there's no cap hit in doing so and he's not worth what he's scheduled to make IMO. Even if they keep him on the current deal, they can cut him or trade him any time prior to the season and won't be on the hook for anything cap wise. Anyway, my point is money that looks like its locked up right now won't necessarily be locked up when it comes time to sign the younger guys and we're not even up against a wall anyway. These contracts have been very smartly done by the Jags.
All of the money that Campbell would have made past the 2018 season if we cut him, will be going towards paying Ramsey and Ngakoue. If we cut him, it's because of these two players, not because we should be overpaying for Cousins. With that said though, Campbell isn't no string chicken agreed, but he just had a career year. I don't see how he completely falls into nothingness next season.
If we cut Hurns, we better give ARob a monster contract to make sure he stays for the long run, because if we go into the season with Cole and Westbrook as our #1 and #2 WR, that's going to be bad news.
I just don't see the reason to get rid of a sure thing, that this team showed they were this season, in the hopes that Cousins can carry a team like he's Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, or Drew Brees.
If they want to throw the farm at Cousins, then that's fine. It'll simply be Super Bowl, or bust from then on out. 12+ wins min per season and nothing less than a Super Bowl every year.
My good man I'm with you on this Kirk Cousins situation because my God Jaguar fans make him seem like he's Aaron Rodgers when in all reality he's no better than Derek Carr and even that's a stretch. Is like some other members on this message board thinks that what we did this year was a fluke and can't be repeated with Blake Bortles at qb is flabbergasted to me. Some of these fans are the same people that thought we were going 6-10 with Blake Bortles this year but now want to move to Bar because this team has overachieved and exceeded everyone's expectations. This defense supposed to be so great but three out of last five games they got smoked by opposing offenses. I get it I am preaching to the Blake Bortles sucks crowd but the man can't get better and he's only 25 years old.
(02-02-2018, 12:49 AM)Eric1 Wrote: [ -> ]I just can't comprehend some of the logic that gets thrown around on this forum. Everybody that down talked Bortles all season long, saying he was the worst starting QB in the league blah blah blah. Are now flipping their tone saying he's going to demand a contract similar to the one Cousins' about to get.
Literally went from saying he's terrible and will soon be out of the league before this season. To saying that he hit his peak and hes average at best after the AFC Championship game. To now saying he'll command top dollar next off season, simply because they want Cousins and are trying to justify paying him that.
We're saying Blake is average right now and that IF he takes the step forward that the people who want him to stay are expecting him to make THEN he will demand a contract like that. Here are the 3 options:
1. We sign Cousins and have a safe but expensive franchise QB for the foreseeable future.
2. Bortles succeeds and we save a little money in 2018 only. Then we pay him and have an expensive franchise QB for the forseeable future.
3. Bortles fails and we waste a year of prime championship caliber window AND we don't have a franchise QB.
There is no real option where keeping Bortles now instead of paying Cousins give us upside. It's even or worse, much worse.
(02-02-2018, 12:49 AM)Eric1 Wrote: [ -> ] (02-02-2018, 12:37 AM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]Deep breath now Eric. You are getting mad online about football.
If Bortles is the guy we are sticking with in the future (no idea if he is or not) then he's going to cost a minimum of that in 2019. A) If he does really well that's what he will cost and B) If he does meh but we decide to franchise him another year he will cost 25 million for that year.
If he stinks next year he won't be back (or at least he shouldn't). It's pretty simple.
Funnily enough we can do all of that bar keeping Dareus (and Jack hasn't shown he's worth that much yet, you don't wanna pay two off ball LBs that much ideally).
Lol I'm far from mad bud.
I just can't comprehend some of the logic that gets thrown around on this forum. Everybody that down talked Bortles all season long, saying he was the worst starting QB in the league blah blah blah. Are now flipping their tone saying he's going to demand a contract similar to the one Cousins' about to get.
Literally went from saying he's terrible and will soon be out of the league before this season. To saying that he hit his peak and hes average at best after the AFC Championship game. To now saying he'll command top dollar next off season, simply because they want Cousins and are trying to justify paying him that.
I see you disregarded what I wrote so I'll post it again.
"If Bortles is the guy we are sticking with in the future (no idea if he is or not) then he's going to cost a minimum of that in 2019. A) If he does really well that's what he will cost and B) If he does meh but we decide to franchise him another year he will cost 25 million for that year.
If he stinks next year he won't be back (or at least he shouldn't). It's pretty simple. "
That explains how/why he would cost 25 million if we were to keep him.
I wouldn't personally pay him 25 million. I would pay Cousins that and more. It's pretty simple.
Which part of the logic do you not understand?
(02-02-2018, 12:55 AM)Eric1 Wrote: [ -> ] (02-02-2018, 12:43 AM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ]A lot of this disagreement is based on a lot of people assuming that Cousins is only slightly above average, as I have seen stated many times on the last few pages. If people could be convinced that there was a clear and significant upgrade the money would become a non issue.
Here are Cousins 3 starting years of + stats (Y/A+ NY/A+ AY/A+ ANY/A+ Cmp%+ TD%+ Int%+ Sack%+ Rate+ tallied so that 100 is league average).
111 114 112 114 128 111 107 112 118
122 126 115 119 117 97 107 120 112
111 104 108 104 106 109 99 92 108
That's a whole lot of above average to way above average, and most importantly remarkable consistent above average. The exact type of consistent that would do wonders for an offense with a dominant defense. Worth the money.
Why hasn't he won more games and carried his team then? 26-30-1 and a 0-1 record is not good my man.
Don't count the first 2 seasons when he started 8 games playing out the string for losing teams. His record in the 3 seasons where he has started is 24-23-1 with a very poor supporting cast. For evidence, his team defenses have ranked 27th, 28th, and 28th in points allowed over those 3 seasons. He has basically carried them to .500 records with a comparable supporting cast to what Bortles had while carrying us to top 5 picks.
(02-02-2018, 01:06 AM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ] (02-02-2018, 12:55 AM)Eric1 Wrote: [ -> ]Why hasn't he won more games and carried his team then? 26-30-1 and a 0-1 record is not good my man.
Don't count the first 2 seasons when he started 8 games playing out the string for losing teams. His record in the 3 seasons where he has started is 24-23-1 with a very poor supporting cast. For evidence, his team defenses have ranked 27th, 28th, and 28th in points allowed over those 3 seasons. He has basically carried them to .500 records with a comparable supporting cast to what Bortles had while carrying us to top 5 picks.
Okay if you want to play that game then don't count Blake Bortles first three seasons of his career when he had to work would 9 rookies his rookie year, and had a bozo of a coach and offensive coordinators and Lord how did we forget about our horrible defenses we had the first 2 years of his career but it's okay for you to blame didn't know our shortcomings to him but 4 Kirk Cousins let's disregard that to make our stance on him more desirable to everyone.
(02-02-2018, 01:20 AM)leopold332002 Wrote: [ -> ] (02-02-2018, 01:06 AM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ]Don't count the first 2 seasons when he started 8 games playing out the string for losing teams. His record in the 3 seasons where he has started is 24-23-1 with a very poor supporting cast. For evidence, his team defenses have ranked 27th, 28th, and 28th in points allowed over those 3 seasons. He has basically carried them to .500 records with a comparable supporting cast to what Bortles had while carrying us to top 5 picks.
Okay if you want to play that game then don't count Blake Bortles first three seasons of his career when he had to work would 9 rookies his rookie year, and had a bozo of a coach and offensive coordinators and Lord how did we forget about our horrible defenses we had the first 2 years of his career but it's okay for you to blame didn't know our shortcomings to him but 4 Kirk Cousins let's disregard that to make our stance on him more desirable to everyone.
Ignoring 8 starts spread out over the end of 2 seasons is not even close to the same as ignoring 3 full seasons. If you're wanting to have a discussion about this let's try to keep it somewhat honest please.
Also, I said Bortles supporting cast was bad I wasn't throwing it out. Statistically they were just as bad as Cousins. They were both forced to carry an inordinate amount. Even playing fields. The difference is Cousins dragged his awful supporting cast to a slightly above .500 record. Bortles carried his awful supporting cast to 3 top 5 picks.
(02-02-2018, 01:20 AM)leopold332002 Wrote: [ -> ] (02-02-2018, 01:06 AM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ]Don't count the first 2 seasons when he started 8 games playing out the string for losing teams. His record in the 3 seasons where he has started is 24-23-1 with a very poor supporting cast. For evidence, his team defenses have ranked 27th, 28th, and 28th in points allowed over those 3 seasons. He has basically carried them to .500 records with a comparable supporting cast to what Bortles had while carrying us to top 5 picks.
Okay if you want to play that game then don't count Blake Bortles first three seasons of his career when he had to work would 9 rookies his rookie year, and had a bozo of a coach and offensive coordinators and Lord how did we forget about our horrible defenses we had the first 2 years of his career but it's okay for you to blame didn't know our shortcomings to him but 4 Kirk Cousins let's disregard that to make our stance on him more desirable to everyone.
It's honestly pointless man. We're better off trying to pound sand. Their tones change by the day, week by week. I'm done wasting my time on this Bortles merry-go-round.
If we throw a god awful amount of money at Cousins, that's fine. But it's at min 12+ wins and Super Bowl, or bust for every single season that he's here. Plain and simple. No excuses, nothing.
(02-02-2018, 01:26 AM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ] (02-02-2018, 01:20 AM)leopold332002 Wrote: [ -> ]Okay if you want to play that game then don't count Blake Bortles first three seasons of his career when he had to work would 9 rookies his rookie year, and had a bozo of a coach and offensive coordinators and Lord how did we forget about our horrible defenses we had the first 2 years of his career but it's okay for you to blame didn't know our shortcomings to him but 4 Kirk Cousins let's disregard that to make our stance on him more desirable to everyone.
Ignoring 8 starts spread out over the end of 2 seasons is not even close to the same as ignoring 3 full seasons. If you're wanting to have a discussion about this let's try to keep it somewhat honest please.
Also, I said Bortles supporting cast was bad I wasn't throwing it out. Statistically they were just as bad as Cousins. They were both forced to carry an inordinate amount. Even playing fields. The difference is Cousins dragged his awful supporting cast to a slightly above .500 record. Bortles carried his awful supporting cast to 3 top 5 picks.
This roster was expansion level bad when Bortles took over are you joking? Jesus Christ. Even playing fields... LOL.
(02-02-2018, 01:26 AM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ] (02-02-2018, 01:20 AM)leopold332002 Wrote: [ -> ]Okay if you want to play that game then don't count Blake Bortles first three seasons of his career when he had to work would 9 rookies his rookie year, and had a bozo of a coach and offensive coordinators and Lord how did we forget about our horrible defenses we had the first 2 years of his career but it's okay for you to blame didn't know our shortcomings to him but 4 Kirk Cousins let's disregard that to make our stance on him more desirable to everyone.
Ignoring 8 starts spread out over the end of 2 seasons is not even close to the same as ignoring 3 full seasons. If you're wanting to have a discussion about this let's try to keep it somewhat honest please.
Also, I said Bortles supporting cast was bad I wasn't throwing it out. Statistically they were just as bad as Cousins. They were both forced to carry an inordinate amount. Even playing fields. The difference is Cousins dragged his awful supporting cast to a slightly above .500 record. Bortles carried his awful supporting cast to 3 top 5 picks.
No my good man the difference is a project QB who's supposed to sit his first year if not two years of his career was put in a unwinnable situation and yet people want to hold that against him as if he was drafted as a finished product. What makes the situation worse is unlike Kirk Cousins who had a genius of coaches such as Mike Shanahan, Kyle Shanahan, Jay Gruden and Sean McVay to help him develop in the quarterback position Blake Bortles have Gus Bradley, Jedd fisch, and Greg Olsen as people who supposed to help him develop as a QB in the NFL and yet you wonder why he played poorly during the first three years of his career? I understand your concern of this team regression to the mean based on staying status quo but let the situation play out because the man can still develop under the proper coaching in his life.
(02-02-2018, 01:31 AM)Eric1 Wrote: [ -> ]This roster was expansion level bad when Bortles took over are you joking? Jesus Christ. Even playing fields... LOL.
2014 - Jags 4.5 YPC, 26th in yards allowed, and 26th in points allowed. Skins 4.2 YPC, 20th in yards allowed, and 29th in points allowed.
2015 - Jags 4.2 YPC, 24th in yards allowed, and 29th in points allowed. Skins 3.7 YPC, 29th in yards allowed, and 27th in points allowed.
2016 - Jags 4.2 YPC, 6th (!) in yards allowed, and 25th in points allowed. Skins 4.5 YPC, 28th in yards allowed, and 19th in points allowed.
Obviously comparing stats like that is rough and dirty with plenty of flaws, but it shows fairly enough that Bortles was not dealing with a significantly worse supporting cast. If anything Bortles might have had a better supporting cast on average. He definitely had the help of better run games. It would be easier to just say they were both bad and leave it at that.
(02-02-2018, 01:34 AM)leopold332002 Wrote: [ -> ]I understand your concern of this team regression to the mean based on staying status quo but let the situation play out because the man can still develop under the proper coaching in his life.
The problem is we have hundreds and hundreds of samples and it's rare that QBs continue progressing past ~50 starts. There are a couple outliers like the perpetually pointed out Alex Smith and Eli Manning (maybe one or two others that haven't been chronicled), but in the far more common case the QB is what he is at this point.
So the real question is what is the reward if we risk it by sticking with Blake and hoping he becomes an outlier instead of going for Cousins? I'll copy/paste again since it got ignored.
1. We sign Cousins and have a safe but expensive franchise QB for the foreseeable future.
2. Bortles succeeds and we save a little money in 2018 only. Then we pay him and have an expensive franchise QB for the forseeable future.
3. Bortles fails and we waste a year of prime championship caliber window AND we don't have a franchise QB.
Best case scenario Bortles takes another step and then becomes very expensive himself after one year and we're in the exact same situation we would be in with Cousins. Best is not actually any better. Any other scenario is worse. There isn't a scenario that's better than just signing Cousins now. (Ok fine there is one, we draft a QB who 28 teams pass on at least once who in year two immediately becomes a franchise QB capable of cheaply leading a team to a super bowl...obviously very very unlikely).
(02-02-2018, 02:15 AM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ] (02-02-2018, 01:34 AM)leopold332002 Wrote: [ -> ]I understand your concern of this team regression to the mean based on staying status quo but let the situation play out because the man can still develop under the proper coaching in his life.
The problem is we have hundreds and hundreds of samples and it's rare that QBs continue progressing past ~50 starts. There are a couple outliers like the perpetually pointed out Alex Smith and Eli Manning (maybe one or two others that haven't been chronicled), but in the far more common case the QB is what he is at this point.
So the real question is what is the reward if we risk it by sticking with Blake and hoping he becomes an outlier instead of going for Cousins? I'll copy/paste again since it got ignored.
1. We sign Cousins and have a safe but expensive franchise QB for the foreseeable future.
2. Bortles succeeds and we save a little money in 2018 only. Then we pay him and have an expensive franchise QB for the forseeable future.
3. Bortles fails and we waste a year of prime championship caliber window AND we don't have a franchise QB.
Best case scenario Bortles takes another step and then becomes very expensive himself after one year and we're in the exact same situation we would be in with Cousins. Best is not actually any better. Any other scenario is worse. There isn't a scenario that's better than just signing Cousins now. (Ok fine there is one, we draft a QB who 28 teams pass on at least once who in year two immediately becomes a franchise QB capable of cheaply leading a team to a super bowl...obviously very very unlikely).
What do your spider charts tell you?