(03-07-2018, 08:31 PM)Etdavis2006 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-07-2018, 08:09 PM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]All reasonable takes which really comes down to whether you think Arob can be a pro bowl caliber receiver again I guess. I do. Others like yourself may not.
Yeah I'd rather sign Arob and let Lee+Colvin go.
For year 1? I agree the first year would likely be incentive based from the teams side but more like 10 baseline with 12-15 with incentives.
Big thing to consider as well is we always have easy outs in all our contracts and that paired with an incentive based year 1 may put him off regardless of the paper money.
I do beleive he has the ability to get there the issue for me is I only saw it one time and then he torn his ACL. I just want the team to be smart about what he has done not what they project him to do. I remember Laurant Robinson catching 10 tds in a season and could never do it again.
I don't believe that because Laurant and Allen caught 10 TD's they should be placed in the same group. I don't recall Laurant's 10, but i know Allen's came with 1400 yards and multiple contested balls some in which i watched him come down with a ball after having 3 DBS jump with him.
(03-07-2018, 08:18 PM)JagsorDie Wrote: [ -> ] (03-07-2018, 07:59 PM)Etdavis2006 Wrote: [ -> ]The issue is that he didn’t contribute to the success of the team last year. I don’t want to over pay for a player who is coming off a major injury, didn’t contribute to the teams success and we don’t even know if he can produce at a high level consistently. Yes he made the pro bowl (after Calvin Johnson retired) but we only saw that one time and that was two years ago. And the was pre injury (I’m starting to say the same things again).
I don’t want us over paying for that and jeopardize signing the guys who actually contributed to the teams success.
A decent number to be would be some where in the 7-9 million area. 12 if he meets incentives. Im also basing this on the fact he missed 6 games in 2015 and torn his ACL in 2017. But I’m not a cap guy so this me just looking at other contracts and comparing them.
But why would he take a incentive deal when a team like the jets or bears would be willing make him one of the highest paid? We saw the giants pay Vernon and he never broke 10 sacks a season.
We are sort of on the same page. My only issue is that i don't see the ACL issue as being some damning injury, at least not in today's day and age with injury recovery. Then i look at your first point. No, he did not contribute to last years success, but to me that is sort an unfair judgement. I have to ask myself do i think he is better than Cole or Jayden? and all bs aside if you are evaluating talent for talent, Yes i have to say he is certainly better at this point.
This time last year there isn't a person on this board that wouldn't be on board with paying the guy. Yes there has been an injury, but i dont see that as being the end of the guys career or something we have to really guard ourselves against. pay him and if injuries become reoccurring, cut him and don't structure the contract to have tons of back loaded guaranteed money and it wouldn't hurt that much at all. Maybe it is just me but i don't see the benefit in just letting him walk over that.
That is just thoughts.
Who was the last guy to come back for an ACL and produce at a high level? I only remember AP recently and that was 6-7 years ago. I’m not saying it is this career ending injury. That is definitely not the case but to automatically beleive that he will be his previous selfie a bit naive. On top of that his previous self is 883 yards and 6 tds. He has actually produce do at a high level for two years. Before that he had a solid rookie season then broke his leg and missed the last six games.
With his entire body of work I would not be inclined to pay him big bucks. Sorry. I really like the guy but he gambled and lost last year. He should have taken the deal when it was offered. Now his only leverage is to go into the market and hope someone will throw money at him because he certain hasn’t earned it based on his numbers and injury history.
That is what’s powering my thinking. I really like him and would like for him to stay but it sounds like he wants all the money he can get. I don’t blame him. Who wouldn’t I just know we got Ramsey, Yannick, Jack and potentially Fowler to pay and they have actually produced a winning season and are contributing the success around here.
Maybe he would maybe he wouldn’t. Who knows but I support the team having a limit they won’t go over. They have to be smart to secure present and well as future success
(03-07-2018, 08:41 PM)Etdavis2006 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-07-2018, 08:18 PM)JagsorDie Wrote: [ -> ]We are sort of on the same page. My only issue is that i don't see the ACL issue as being some damning injury, at least not in today's day and age with injury recovery. Then i look at your first point. No, he did not contribute to last years success, but to me that is sort an unfair judgement. I have to ask myself do i think he is better than Cole or Jayden? and all bs aside if you are evaluating talent for talent, Yes i have to say he is certainly better at this point.
This time last year there isn't a person on this board that wouldn't be on board with paying the guy. Yes there has been an injury, but i dont see that as being the end of the guys career or something we have to really guard ourselves against. pay him and if injuries become reoccurring, cut him and don't structure the contract to have tons of back loaded guaranteed money and it wouldn't hurt that much at all. Maybe it is just me but i don't see the benefit in just letting him walk over that.
That is just thoughts.
Who was the last guy to come back for an ACL and produce at a high level? I only remember AP recently and that was 6-7 years ago. I’m not saying it is this career ending injury. That is definitely not the case but to automatically beleive that he will be his previous selfie a bit naive. On top of that his previous self is 883 yards and 6 tds. He has actually produce do at a high level for two years. Before that he had a solid rookie season then broke his leg and missed the last six games.
With his entire body of work I would not be inclined to pay him big bucks. Sorry. I really like the guy but he gambled and lost last year. He should have taken the deal when it was offered. Now his only leverage is to go into the market and hope someone will throw money at him because he certain hasn’t earned it based on his numbers and injury history.
That is what’s powering my thinking. I really like him and would like for him to stay but it sounds like he wants all the money he can get. I don’t blame him. Who wouldn’t I just know we got Ramsey, Yannick, Jack and potentially Fowler to pay and they have actually produced a winning season and are contributing the success around here.
Maybe he would maybe he wouldn’t. Who knows but I support the team having a limit they won’t go over. They have to be smart to secure present and well as future success
There have been a number of guys. Keenan Allen this past year
(03-07-2018, 08:39 PM)JagsorDie Wrote: [ -> ] (03-07-2018, 08:31 PM)Etdavis2006 Wrote: [ -> ]I do beleive he has the ability to get there the issue for me is I only saw it one time and then he torn his ACL. I just want the team to be smart about what he has done not what they project him to do. I remember Laurant Robinson catching 10 tds in a season and could never do it again.
I don't believe that because Laurant and Allen caught 10 TD's they should be placed in the same group. I don't recall Laurant's 10, but i know Allen's came with 1400 yards and multiple contested balls some in which i watched him come down with a ball after having 3 DBS jump with him.
Allen 1400 yard 14 tds also came in a 5-11 year and mostly came when the game was out of hand. I distinctly remember the saints game where we were down 21 before he caught the 90 yard bomb. It is what it is. It’s so many ways to view it. I just know he tried to play hardball and lost. He literally has zero leverage. All he can do is go into the market and see who is desperate enough to overpay him.
People need to remember if we sign over pay him to a big contract we also lose out on a 3rd round pick.
(03-07-2018, 08:46 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ] (03-07-2018, 08:41 PM)Etdavis2006 Wrote: [ -> ]Who was the last guy to come back for an ACL and produce at a high level? I only remember AP recently and that was 6-7 years ago. I’m not saying it is this career ending injury. That is definitely not the case but to automatically beleive that he will be his previous selfie a bit naive. On top of that his previous self is 883 yards and 6 tds. He has actually produce do at a high level for two years. Before that he had a solid rookie season then broke his leg and missed the last six games.
With his entire body of work I would not be inclined to pay him big bucks. Sorry. I really like the guy but he gambled and lost last year. He should have taken the deal when it was offered. Now his only leverage is to go into the market and hope someone will throw money at him because he certain hasn’t earned it based on his numbers and injury history.
That is what’s powering my thinking. I really like him and would like for him to stay but it sounds like he wants all the money he can get. I don’t blame him. Who wouldn’t I just know we got Ramsey, Yannick, Jack and potentially Fowler to pay and they have actually produced a winning season and are contributing the success around here.
Maybe he would maybe he wouldn’t. Who knows but I support the team having a limit they won’t go over. They have to be smart to secure present and well as future success
There have been a number of guys. Keenan Allen this past year
Well that’s two people in that last 6-7 years lol anyone else?
I guess the point I’m making is it’s not that common. Of course guys can still play but it takes something from a lot of these guys. I would like to see if he can even play before we give him the brinks truck.
(03-07-2018, 07:57 PM)haveaseat Wrote: [ -> ]Doug Marrone drafted Sammy Watkins with the Bills. Wouldn't surprise me if he wants him here with even less of ARob's money.
Watkins is a mess. Doug resigned.
(03-07-2018, 08:52 PM)Etdavis2006 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-07-2018, 08:46 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]There have been a number of guys. Keenan Allen this past year
Well that’s two people in that last 6-7 years lol anyone else?
I guess the point I’m making is it’s not that common. Of course guys can still play but it takes something from a lot of these guys. I would like to see if he can even play before we give him the brinks truck.
It's pretty common for players to come back to full performance post ACL these days.
What many say is the first year can be hard to adjust but after that completely back to normal. (Which is partly why I suspect they thought 16 m was too rich for the tag, even if misguided.)
Not trying to be that guy but:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguar...es-careers
“In the NFL, like other sports, a lasting return to play is also influenced by the player’s pre-injury position – 20% of running backs and wide receivers never return to the NFL and for those that do return, performance drops by a third. However, because their performance is less tied to lower body speed and explosiveness, 12 out of the 13 of NFL quarterbacks studied after ACL surgeries were able to resume playing at pre-injury levels.”
(03-07-2018, 08:52 PM)Etdavis2006 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-07-2018, 08:46 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]There have been a number of guys. Keenan Allen this past year
Well that’s two people in that last 6-7 years lol anyone else?
I guess the point I’m making is it’s not that common. Of course guys can still play but it takes something from a lot of these guys. I would like to see if he can even play before we give him the brinks truck.
Fowler, Watson from his first tear, Hines Ward literally never had his ACL repaired and played his entire career. Honestly I think there are actually fewer who had it be the death sentence for them(could be wrong).
Like i said before i agree with you to an extent. I'm not saying throw the bank at him. But i think over looking him for more unproven DP's is a little less beneficial.
(03-07-2018, 08:58 PM)Etdavis2006 Wrote: [ -> ]Not trying to be that guy but:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguar...es-careers
“In the NFL, like other sports, a lasting return to play is also influenced by the player’s pre-injury position – 20% of running backs and wide receivers never return to the NFL and for those that do return, performance drops by a third. However, because their performance is less tied to lower body speed and explosiveness, 12 out of the 13 of NFL quarterbacks studied after ACL surgeries were able to resume playing at pre-injury levels.”
Well that sort of sinks everything i said before... lol... You win...unfortunately.
(03-07-2018, 08:52 PM)Etdavis2006 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-07-2018, 08:46 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]There have been a number of guys. Keenan Allen this past year
Well that’s two people in that last 6-7 years lol anyone else?
I guess the point I’m making is it’s not that common. Of course guys can still play but it takes something from a lot of these guys. I would like to see if he can even play before we give him the brinks truck.
Jason Kelce and Chris Harris Jr.
(03-07-2018, 08:52 PM)Etdavis2006 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-07-2018, 08:46 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]There have been a number of guys. Keenan Allen this past year
Well that’s two people in that last 6-7 years lol anyone else?
I guess the point I’m making is it’s not that common. Of course guys can still play but it takes something from a lot of these guys. I would like to see if he can even play before we give him the brinks truck.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/hot...on-surgery
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/hot...on-surgery
(03-07-2018, 08:33 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ] (03-07-2018, 08:30 PM)knarnn Wrote: [ -> ]If you tag him you now have 13 million in cap space (3 million in cap and 10 million in rollover) to try to fill in the remaining offseason needs (potentially OL, SLB, TE) and still look at extending your other guys that are due. Kind of puts you in a bind doesn’t it?
I’m sure the team offered him a fair contract. Hell they were negotiating in camp last year and Robinson decided to bet on him himself. It backfired. Why are you mad at the team?
http://www.firstcoastnews.com/mobile/art...-526338260
Betting on himself or either not want to be in Jax. He might not even want to be here
Agreed. Him actually wanting to play in Jax is something that has to be considered as well.
(03-07-2018, 08:58 PM)Etdavis2006 Wrote: [ -> ]Not trying to be that guy but:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguar...es-careers
“In the NFL, like other sports, a lasting return to play is also influenced by the player’s pre-injury position – 20% of running backs and wide receivers never return to the NFL and for those that do return, performance drops by a third. However, because their performance is less tied to lower body speed and explosiveness, 12 out of the 13 of NFL quarterbacks studied after ACL surgeries were able to resume playing at pre-injury levels.”
Interesting article but would be a lot more useful if he actually gave specifics on what he used to determine performance and also provided some examples of it.
Its pretty vague.
In the second study of defensive players they use solo tackle numbers as evidence of performance. When in reality tackle numbers have very little correlation with performance and can vary a lot from year to year. For instance cornerbacks would be included in this study and tackle numbers have no relevance to performance for them at all.
Jamaal Charles did it.
Plus Robinson is only 24 years old. At that age, he is better equipped to recover than if he was some over the hill type of guy.
(03-07-2018, 07:27 PM)Etdavis2006 Wrote: [ -> ]Lol y’all crack me up. We literally went to the AFC Championship game without him last year. We do not need him lol. What they hell are y’all talking about.
Would it be nice to keep him, absolutely. I don’t think anyone thinks the guy sucks but let’s get real for a minute. He’s coming off an ACL and proly can’t even pass a physical right now. That is huge. On top of that his previous year he put up less than 900 yards and 6 tds lol. If you think that’s worth 16 million a year so be it I’m just happy you aren’t running the franchise.
Like stated you have to have limits. Hes not ODB, JJ, AJ or AB. He doesn’t get whatever he wants because he has not shown the ability to produce at a high level consistently to warrant that or have we been so starved for talent we are willing to pay a one legged wr top 5 money because of something he did 2 years ago pre-injury?
Geez lol
(03-07-2018, 07:08 PM)Protozoa Wrote: [ -> ]Just people trying to convince themselves that we don't need him when they know better.
Aayone who thinks losing him won't hurt us is out of there mind.
What are you talking about? We lost him last year and saw the result lol.
This is getting comical
I guess last year didn’t happen. No ACL no AFCG
Let’s just live in 2015
And let's keep acting like he wouldn't have made our offense way better last year if not injured. The argument could easily be made that we would have made it to the super bowl with him.
We finally got our number 1 WR and every one wants to go back to the days of Matt Jones and Reggie Willams because we made it to the AFC game with out our number 1 WR. If your goal is to only make it back to the AFC Championship game then yeah were better off without him.
(03-07-2018, 09:49 PM)SuperJville Wrote: [ -> ]Jamaal Charles did it.
Plus Robinson is only 24 years old. At that age, he is better equipped to recover than if he was some over the hill type of guy.
That is my hope as well. Honestly, I liked this dude quite a bit and no matter what happens i hope the best for the guy. i enjoyed watching him ball when our team was garbage and there wasn't much to look forward to with this team so i have mad respect for the guy and ill follow his progress where ever he ends up. i also woln't hold any animosity towards him.
But i realize the business side of things and i understand in the next few years we are going to have to make some really tough decisions with our young players that are going to require us to get use to losing some guy we watched develop.
It's like watching our little youngins grow up and move out lmbo
Serious question... Hypothetically, if there was rich guy with no affiliation other than being a fan that loved his home team, what if he offered someone who plays for his team money as a gift to stay around, and being that he is not affiliated with the nfl, it wouldn't hit the cap or salary status?
Like say some random neighbor of robinson just happned to gift him 10 mil for his birthday every year if he played for the jags. I wonder how the commish/dictators up top would approach it if there was no legal writing or tender to prove it was to play football lol
being we are the jags, that guy probably doesn't exist and we would get the death penalty or something but just seeing what you guys thought.
Long car ride had my mind wandering today lol
(03-07-2018, 09:56 PM)Protozoa Wrote: [ -> ]And let's keep acting like he wouldn't have made our offense way better last year if not injured. The argument could easily be made that we would have made it to the super bowl with him.
We finally got our number 1 WR and every one wants to go back to the days of Matt Jones and Reggie Willams because we made it to the AFC game with out our number 1 WR. If your goal is to only make it back to the AFC Championship game then yeah were better off without him.
^^^^we are on the same page. I can't help but thinking this way.
(03-07-2018, 09:56 PM)Protozoa Wrote: [ -> ] (03-07-2018, 07:27 PM)Etdavis2006 Wrote: [ -> ]Lol y’all crack me up. We literally went to the AFC Championship game without him last year. We do not need him lol. What they hell are y’all talking about.
Would it be nice to keep him, absolutely. I don’t think anyone thinks the guy sucks but let’s get real for a minute. He’s coming off an ACL and proly can’t even pass a physical right now. That is huge. On top of that his previous year he put up less than 900 yards and 6 tds lol. If you think that’s worth 16 million a year so be it I’m just happy you aren’t running the franchise.
Like stated you have to have limits. Hes not ODB, JJ, AJ or AB. He doesn’t get whatever he wants because he has not shown the ability to produce at a high level consistently to warrant that or have we been so starved for talent we are willing to pay a one legged wr top 5 money because of something he did 2 years ago pre-injury?
Geez lol
What are you talking about? We lost him last year and saw the result lol.
This is getting comical
I guess last year didn’t happen. No ACL no AFCG
Let’s just live in 2015
And let's keep acting like he wouldn't have made our offense way better last year if not injured. The argument could easily be made that we would have made it to the super bowl with him.
We finally got our number 1 WR and every one wants to go back to the days of Matt Jones and Reggie Willams because we made it to the AFC game with out our number 1 WR. If your goal is to only make it back to the AFC Championship game then yeah were better off without him.
This. We went without a 1000 yard WR for 10 years; Jimmy Smith in 2005 was our last one. Then we get a game changer like Robinson
(03-07-2018, 09:56 PM)Protozoa Wrote: [ -> ] (03-07-2018, 07:27 PM)Etdavis2006 Wrote: [ -> ]Lol y’all crack me up. We literally went to the AFC Championship game without him last year. We do not need him lol. What they hell are y’all talking about.
Would it be nice to keep him, absolutely. I don’t think anyone thinks the guy sucks but let’s get real for a minute. He’s coming off an ACL and proly can’t even pass a physical right now. That is huge. On top of that his previous year he put up less than 900 yards and 6 tds lol. If you think that’s worth 16 million a year so be it I’m just happy you aren’t running the franchise.
Like stated you have to have limits. Hes not ODB, JJ, AJ or AB. He doesn’t get whatever he wants because he has not shown the ability to produce at a high level consistently to warrant that or have we been so starved for talent we are willing to pay a one legged wr top 5 money because of something he did 2 years ago pre-injury?
Geez lol
What are you talking about? We lost him last year and saw the result lol.
This is getting comical
I guess last year didn’t happen. No ACL no AFCG
Let’s just live in 2015
And let's keep acting like he wouldn't have made our offense way better last year if not injured. The argument could easily be made that we would have made it to the super bowl with him.
We finally got our number 1 WR and every one wants to go back to the days of Matt Jones and Reggie Willams because we made it to the AFC game with out our number 1 WR. If your goal is to only make it back to the AFC Championship game then yeah were better off without him.
No one is saying ARob wouldn’t make the team better. I’ve already conceded that point. The question is how much does ARob make the team better? Taking everything in consideration (past performance and injury) Is it a 16 million dollar improvement?
There’s a huge difference between value and worth and I believe that’s where the disconnect is.
For a comparisons sake, Calais is getting paid 15-16 million per year. Will Arob’s impact on the team this year be the same as Calais was this past year?
(03-07-2018, 10:57 PM)knarnn Wrote: [ -> ] (03-07-2018, 09:56 PM)Protozoa Wrote: [ -> ]And let's keep acting like he wouldn't have made our offense way better last year if not injured. The argument could easily be made that we would have made it to the super bowl with him.
We finally got our number 1 WR and every one wants to go back to the days of Matt Jones and Reggie Willams because we made it to the AFC game with out our number 1 WR. If your goal is to only make it back to the AFC Championship game then yeah were better off without him.
No one is saying ARob wouldn’t make the team better. I’ve already conceded that point. The question is how much does ARob make the team better? Taking everything in consideration (past performance and injury) Is it a 16 million dollar improvement? There’s a huge difference between value and worth and I believe that’s where the disconnect is.
For a comparisons sake, Calais is getting paid 15-16 million per year. Will Arob’s impact on the team this year be the same as Calais was this past year?
I feel he would make that big of an impact for us. Him being on the field makes the running game better and Westbrook and Cole better. Yes he wasnt fantastc in 16 but in his 2 games with Marrone as coach he was back to his old self because they used him right.
At the end of the day I think he worth it and will most likely get paid 13 to 14 mil a year and hes well worth that.