Quote:Exactly. It's not a reach to think he could crack 4k and push for a franchise record for passing touchdowns in year 2. He'll have a better line in front of him, more experience at the skill positions, and additional weapons to work with. If he gets Blackmon back, and Justin is able to get back to anything close to what he was prior to the suspension, the numbers could be crazy good in year 2.
I think it would be a reach for him to hit 4k yards. With a new offensive coaching staff in place, I think they'll rely on the run heavily and not put Bortles in positions where he is slinging the ball excessively.
For Bortles to hit 4,000 yards, he'd need 572 attempts @ 7 YPA or 500 attempts @ 8 YPA. To reach the mentioned attempts mark, Bortles would have to average 36 and 31 attempts per game.
I would tend to think if he 'breaks out' this year, he'll be closer to 30 attempts a game with a 7 YPA which would roughly be 3400 yards.
For Bortles to rack up 4k yards, he'll need about four monster (350+ yard) games against lesser defenses, which is possible but at this moment a reach. 'Crazy good' numbers in year 2 is not realistic, especially since every year 3 to 5 QBs put up crazy numbers in the modern NFL.
I do agree with you he should push for a new passing touchdown franchise record this year.
Quote:I think it would be a reach for him to hit 4k yards. With a new offensive coaching staff in place, I think they'll rely on the run heavily and not put Bortles in positions where he is slinging the ball excessively.
For Bortles to hit 4,000 yards, he'd need 572 attempts @ 7 YPA or 500 attempts @ 8 YPA. To reach the mentioned attempts mark, Bortles would have to average 36 and 31 attempts per game.
I would tend to think if he 'breaks out' this year, he'll be closer to 30 attempts a game with a 7 YPA which would roughly be 3400 yards.
For Bortles to rack up 4k yards, he'll need about four monster (350+ yard) games against lesser defenses, which is possible but at this moment a reach. 'Crazy good' numbers in year 2 is not realistic, especially since every year 3 to 5 QBs put up crazy numbers in the modern NFL.
I do agree with you he should push for a new passing touchdown franchise record this year.
I don't think so if you look at what he achieved in less than a complete rookie season behind a bad line with no running game and inexperienced receivers. 4k is actually very realistic. You can't extrapolate his YPA average from last year for anything other than historical benefit. The expectation this year is that these numbers will improve with a beefed up line, better weapons in the passing game, and hopefully a better rushing attack.
Quote:Ben JUST turned 33....not 36.
Obviously was exaggerating to make a point, I didn't think some guy would come fact check me. My point still remains -- Roethlisberger is old and has had a lot of surgery so of course he's slower and chunkier now.
Quote:Obviously was exaggerating to make a point, I didn't think some guy would come fact check me. My point still remains -- Roethlisberger is old and has had a lot of surgery so of course he's slower and chunkier now.
Roethlisberger weighs almost exactly the same thing he did when he entered the NFL, and 33 isn't old. Also, he hasn't had a lot of surgery, and the football related surgeries he has had during his career have been pretty minor. He suffered more significant injuries when he wrecked his motorcycle in 2006.
Quote:Roethlisberger weighs almost exactly the same thing he did when he entered the NFL, and 33 isn't old. Also, he hasn't had a lot of surgery, and the football related surgeries he has had during his career have been pretty minor. He suffered more significant injuries when he wrecked his motorcycle in 2006.
I remember when big ben had a spin move and could outrun the occasional LB for the first. He'd get crushed trying some of the stuff he did as a young buck.
Quote:I remember when big ben had a spin move and could outrun the occasional LB for the first. He'd get crushed trying some of the stuff he did as a young buck.
idk man. when blake dropped that spin move, i felt my own ankles break. it was ridiculous opposite direction.
Quote:I don't think so if you look at what he achieved in less than a complete rookie season behind a bad line with no running game and inexperienced receivers. 4k is actually very realistic. You can't extrapolate his YPA average from last year for anything other than historical benefit. The expectation this year is that these numbers will improve with a beefed up line, better weapons in the passing game, and hopefully a better rushing attack.
Anything north of 7 Ypa indicates that the QB or the system is elite. I don't think 2015 will be that year for the offense.
The jags have had a barely NFL level offense the last several years. Any upgrade will be huge but shades away from elite.
Quote:Anything north of 7 Ypa indicates that the QB or the system is elite. I don't think 2015 will be that year for the offense.
The jags have had a barely NFL level offense the last several years. Any upgrade will be huge but shades away from elite.
Who is expecting elite?
If the defense continues to improve, the offense just has to get better. Middle of the pack would be a huge improvement that would net this team a lot more wins.
Quote:Who is expecting elite?
If the defense continues to improve, they just have to get better. Middle of the pack would be a huge improvement that would net this team a lot more wins.
A middle of the pack offense last year would have put us around 8 wins at least. Let alone how things should be this year now that most of our personnel is sorted out and we won't throw away the first 3 games to Henne
Agreed. A few more sustained drives that end in points would have made last season a very different story. Hopefully that's what we see this season.
Quote:A middle of the pack offense last year would have put us around 8 wins at least. Let alone how things should be this year now that most of our personnel is sorted out and we won't throw away the first 3 games to Henne
I too agree. Last year was contributed to growing pains for the offense to say the least. QB, WR, RB, and OL were within the infacy mode/stage. Throw in the inept offensive coaching and we had a formula for underachieving. This season we'll have better play at all of the for mentioned positions...
NH3...
I honestly see improvement from both sides of the ball prior to the upcoming draft. We can only imagine the upgrades surpassed the draft...
Is it here yet?
NH3...
Quote:Agreed. A few more sustained drives that end in points would have made last season a very different story. Hopefully that's what we see this season.
It kind of works out for the best as long as we see improvement this year. Get us another top 5 pick to finish off most of the building and really compete.
Don't get me wrong, would have loved to win more last year, but probably works out better long term this way if Dave has another good draft
I honestly see this year either going really bad or really good for some reason. Like 3-4 wins bad or 7+ wins good because simply, If everything works, They should start putting up 24 points a game atleast. If it doesnt, Expect more of the last 2 seasons.
Also to keep in mind, The jags took a loss in most of their games by a touchdown or less last year. Does Bortles' development, Lukes training, FA additions, and our WR development give us that extra touchdown? If you believe it does, Then statistics-wise, The Jags should be a playoff contender.
Edit: Also new coaches! They could be the biggest factor.