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(04-20-2023, 12:09 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-20-2023, 11:54 AM)WingerDinger Wrote: [ -> ]This years draft feels so different since we're not in dire need.. I mean, we are in a way of pieces here and there, but normally we're all spittin and spattin over a future playmaker that could help pull us out of obscurity..

I think just based on everything that's been said this offseason along with this class overall. You would have to think they're building towards the future and with that in mind. They need to walk away from this class with more than likely:

1. Two pass rushers, one for rotational purposes and one for replacing Josh Allen going into 2024.

2. Nickel/Slot CB - This can be had probably as early as RD1 with Branch, whom I am not 100% sold on, or, as late as RD3/RD4.

3. Swing tackle with starting guard potential or vice versa.  

4. Two tight ends, one for blocking and sealing the edge in particular and one with pass catching skills in the event Engram is gone.

They invested a lot of money and resources last year in getting the LB core shored up and some of the front four groups shored up. They invested in a little bit on offense with Engram, Scherff and Ridley. The problem is that age and contract situations are going to make this a slippery slope going into 2024. 

They'll have to navigate a very tight rope, balancing act next week to prepare for this. Robinson and Little may or may not be the answers at LT and RT. Engram may not want to come back as our TE1. Ridley could be boom or bust and you have contracts tied up with Kirk and Jones there in the WR room already. LG is weak. RG is concerning if Scherff takes an injury. 

Defensively you have Josh Allen and Rayshawn Jenkins potentially out of here after 2023. Then you get into unique situations contract wise potentially with Campbell, Cisco, Fatukasi & Williams. The value is deep in this class at CB, TE and EDGE. I don't think they have to drop the 24th overall pick on any of those positions but the odds of a top flight LT/RT or G being there is probably slim to none.

This is the one draft where I would love to see a trade back scenario unfold just so we can get better value overall and add more quality depth to make up for these holes we'll see in 2024/2025 but it's anyone's guess.
1.  I think the two pass rushers is a good idea.  Aside from never having too many of them. you could argue we are actually in a deficit because we don't have a true dominator at edge.  Furthermore, as much as I'd like to keep Josh Allen, re-signing Trevor could make keeping Allen an impossibility.  We will have top be prepared to move on if re-signing Trevor means allowing Allen to wak.

2.  Instead of drafting two TE, I think I'd rather draft two DBs-one at starting CB and one a NB/S.

3.   I am with you completely on #3.
(04-20-2023, 01:44 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-20-2023, 12:09 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]I think just based on everything that's been said this offseason along with this class overall. You would have to think they're building towards the future and with that in mind. They need to walk away from this class with more than likely:

1. Two pass rushers, one for rotational purposes and one for replacing Josh Allen going into 2024.

2. Nickel/Slot CB - This can be had probably as early as RD1 with Branch, whom I am not 100% sold on, or, as late as RD3/RD4.

3. Swing tackle with starting guard potential or vice versa.  

4. Two tight ends, one for blocking and sealing the edge in particular and one with pass catching skills in the event Engram is gone.

They invested a lot of money and resources last year in getting the LB core shored up and some of the front four groups shored up. They invested in a little bit on offense with Engram, Scherff and Ridley. The problem is that age and contract situations are going to make this a slippery slope going into 2024. 

They'll have to navigate a very tight rope, balancing act next week to prepare for this. Robinson and Little may or may not be the answers at LT and RT. Engram may not want to come back as our TE1. Ridley could be boom or bust and you have contracts tied up with Kirk and Jones there in the WR room already. LG is weak. RG is concerning if Scherff takes an injury. 

Defensively you have Josh Allen and Rayshawn Jenkins potentially out of here after 2023. Then you get into unique situations contract wise potentially with Campbell, Cisco, Fatukasi & Williams. The value is deep in this class at CB, TE and EDGE. I don't think they have to drop the 24th overall pick on any of those positions but the odds of a top flight LT/RT or G being there is probably slim to none.

This is the one draft where I would love to see a trade back scenario unfold just so we can get better value overall and add more quality depth to make up for these holes we'll see in 2024/2025 but it's anyone's guess.
1.  I think the two pass rushers is a good idea.  Aside from never having too many of them. you could argue we are actually in a deficit because we don't have a true dominator at edge.  Furthermore, as much as I'd like to keep Josh Allen, re-signing Trevor could make keeping Allen an impossibility.  We will have top be prepared to move on if re-signing Trevor means allowing Allen to wak.

2.  Instead of drafting two TE, I think I'd rather draft two DBs-one at starting CB and one a NB/S.

3.   I am with you completely on #3.

Value depends heavily on the CB and TE pairing for me. I would like Garrett Williams and Riley Moss in this draft class and I had a chance to take them both in RD4 but I just couldn't pass up on Anthony Bradford out of LSU. I really like his upside. Especially now after what Baalke said about Bartch this afternoon in that press conference. Plus, Scherff, he's not going to be here for much longer. 

Mekhi Blackmon out of LSU would be another guy at CB to keep an eye out for. Big guy wise I like Julius Brents and Carrington Valentine though. Probably 2nd (Brents, mostly) or 6th RD options there.
(04-19-2023, 10:44 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]It's been a while since I've posted, so I figured I've spared you guys from my thoughts for long enough.  So with about a week to go until draft day, here are some pre draft musings...

1.  I think the speculations regarding the Jaguars supposed interest in Budda Baker are interesting on a few levels.  While he's a little older than I'd like, he still seems to have about 2-3 good years left.  With the lack of offense characteristic of the rest of the teams in our division, he would seem to be able to thrive here, assuming we can scheme him to give a reasonable reproduction of Pakers era LeRoy Butler or Troy Polamalu. We've never had that element in our defense before.  The closest we came was 1999 with a past his prime Carnell Lake, who came from the Steelers' scheme.  But making such a move is not wihout the potential risks.  Will he need another contract?  If so, how much?  WHat would the Cardinals want in draft choice compensation for him?  Are we talking above or below a 3rd round pick?  That is my cutoff point for such a move.  Anything higher than a 3rd and I pass.
....Budda Baker is a 3 time all-pro and 5 time pro-bowler, and would be likely the best safety in the Jag's history.  He's only 27, with a number of years in front of him.  My issue with Baker is he wants a trade largely because the Cards have refused his demand to tear up his $14.75m salary and make him the highest paid safety in the NFL at over $19m per year.  My stingy side is not in support of finding that kind of cap for a safety, when there are a few higher priorities of need, in my opinion, on the defensive side of the ball.  If the Cards let him go in trade, I think a 1st or 2nd round pick would be required, which I also do not support.  FYI, he has 2 years remaining on his current deal with the Cards.   

2.  If a Budda Baker deal does not come to pass, it would seem if we were hell bent on having such a player for our defense, a younger, equally alliterative version would be found in Alabama's rookie DB Brian Branch.  Cheaper?  Definitely.  But would he be as talented?  Do we have a coordinator creative enough to scheme him effectively?  On top of these concerns, I'm being troubled by the abundance of mock drafters on line who are projecting him to us-without a moments' thought.  Mock drafters not giving the Jaguars a moments thought js no big shock.  But rarely are so many on one accord when it comes to that player, rarer still is the player in accord with me.  It's to the point I'm tempted to revisisit my evaluation of the player.
...Branch would be significantly less expensive, as last year's 24th pick signed with a $3.4m average per year contract.  Branch is versatile, with the ability to play both safety and nickel, hits like a Mack truck, and has admirable cover skills.  I do think he'll be an impact safety, but not sure if nickel is going to be his best position, where many in Jagland have penciled him next year.  I think an effective nickel or safety can by found in the draft without the use of the 1st round selection.  If they take him at 1-24, I wouldn't be upset, but it would not have been my preference.   

3.  That said, even before this post, I was not married to the idea of Brian Branch for us at 24.  Besides the fact I think the team is more likely than in years' past to deal down, I think there are still likely to be a lot of viable options for us at 24 (assuming we stay) on either side of rhte ball.  On offense, There will likely be one of the TE prospects on the board.  Pederson had a lot of 2 TE sets in Philly.  Adding either Kincaid or Meyer or the kid from Georgia would restore the depth at the position for us, give us more personnel and formation versatility, and add another arrow in the quiver for TL and Pederson.  I would have to think if the right OL are remaining on the board, they could opt to replace Jawaan Taylor and maintain the three quality Ts on the roster, or even to upgrade Brian Bartch at G if Cyrus Torrence is still on the board at 24.
...if you give the mock drafts any merit, there does appear that there will be many solid options this year at pick 24.  There will likely be good Edge, OL, TE, and CB prospects.  With that 1st pick, I am still undecided on which side of the ball to use it on, assist the 3rd down defense or Trevor.  In the words of Deion Sanders, "both".        

4.  I know it's still very early, but the Jaguars have to be the favorites to with the AFCS and the 49er have to be favorites to win the NFCW.  Buffahole could finish as low as 3rd in the AFC E, depending on what happens with the Jets and Aaron Rodgers.  I still think Tacks coach Mike Vrabel is an outstanding coach, but i am eager to see DeMeco Ryans for the Texans.  My gut tells me before long, this will be an excellent division in terms of coaching.

5.   I will go on the record now:  if the Georgia DT  is somehow still on the board whwn the Jaguaras when the Jaguars (Proofreading is still fundamentl) are on the clock, I take the chance and pull the trigger and draft him.
(04-20-2023, 12:09 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-20-2023, 11:54 AM)WingerDinger Wrote: [ -> ]This years draft feels so different since we're not in dire need.. I mean, we are in a way of pieces here and there, but normally we're all spittin and spattin over a future playmaker that could help pull us out of obscurity..

I think just based on everything that's been said this offseason along with this class overall. You would have to think they're building towards the future and with that in mind. They need to walk away from this class with more than likely:

1. Two pass rushers, one for rotational purposes and one for replacing Josh Allen going into 2024.

2. Nickel/Slot CB - This can be had probably as early as RD1 with Branch, whom I am not 100% sold on, or, as late as RD3/RD4.

3. Swing tackle with starting guard potential or vice versa.  

4. Two tight ends, one for blocking and sealing the edge in particular and one with pass catching skills in the event Engram is gone.

They invested a lot of money and resources last year in getting the LB core shored up and some of the front four groups shored up. They invested in a little bit on offense with Engram, Scherff and Ridley. The problem is that age and contract situations are going to make this a slippery slope going into 2024. 

They'll have to navigate a very tight rope, balancing act next week to prepare for this. Robinson and Little may or may not be the answers at LT and RT. Engram may not want to come back as our TE1. Ridley could be boom or bust and you have contracts tied up with Kirk and Jones there in the WR room already. LG is weak. RG is concerning if Scherff takes an injury. 

Defensively you have Josh Allen and Rayshawn Jenkins potentially out of here after 2023. Then you get into unique situations contract wise potentially with Campbell, Cisco, Fatukasi & Williams. The value is deep in this class at CB, TE and EDGE. I don't think they have to drop the 24th overall pick on any of those positions but the odds of a top flight LT/RT or G being there is probably slim to none.

This is the one draft where I would love to see a trade back scenario unfold just so we can get better value overall and add more quality depth to make up for these holes we'll see in 2024/2025 but it's anyone's guess.
I can't disagree with your goals for this draft. Trading back would be great since I can't see anybody making it to pick 24 who doesn't have some concerns, whether it is injury history, lack of size, limited college resume, etc. Getting at least one extra pick on day 2 would be worth parting with pick 24.

After doing several simulation mock drafts, I have learned that going BAP (other than q.b., running back or wide receiver) is the best strategy to use on days 1 and 2. For example, while tight end is not among my top 3 needs, I'd likely take Dalton Kincaid, Luke Musgrave or Darnell Washington if any are available in round 2. I'd likely prefer waiting for a nickel until rounds 2-4 since the value would be best there (Phillips/Brents in rd. 2, Williams/Martin in rd. 3 or Moss/Blackmon in rd. 4), but if Joey Porter falls to 24 I'd have to take him. 

I could definitely see the Jaguars taking 2 players at corner/nickel if the value is there. This is a critical position where quality depth is essential. The same can be said of offensive line and pass rusher. Unfortunately, it's not likely that things will go perfectly and we are all likely to be disappointed that they failed to address ALL these areas adequately. Regardless, they must not make the mistake of "reaching" for a player due to need. While running back and wide receiver are not big needs for the Jaguars, they should not hesitate to take one on day 3 if the value is too great.
Today's presser. So close to the draft unknown how "informative" this can be.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzyfd2zQLug
(04-20-2023, 12:37 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/samkouvaris/status/1...58784?s=20

Facts,  as he said right before that.  You don't want to push players up the board just because you have a need at that position.
(04-20-2023, 01:17 PM)WingerDinger Wrote: [ -> ]In all honestly, just hoping for at least 1 decent pass rusher and some big uglies.. I don't have a preference.

I’m right there with ya on that. Just give me a guy that can put the QB in the dirt. We’ve never seen a 15+sack player around these parts.
(04-20-2023, 08:30 AM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-19-2023, 10:44 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]It's been a while since I've posted, so I figured I've spared you guys from my thoughts for long enough.  So with about a week to go until draft day, here are some pre draft musings...

1.  I think the speculations regarding the Jaguars supposed interest in Budda Baker are interesting on a few levels.  While he's a little older than I'd like, he still seems to have about 2-3 good years left.  With the lack of offense characteristic of the rest of the teams in our division, he would seem to be able to thrive here, assuming we can scheme him to give a reasonable reproduction of Pakers era LeRoy Butler or Troy Polamalu. We've never had that element in our defense before.  The closest we came was 1999 with a past his prime Carnell Lake, who came from the Steelers' scheme.  But making such a move is not wihout the potential risks.  Will he need another contract?  If so, how much?  WHat would the Cardinals want in draft choice compensation for him?  Are we talking above or below a 3rd round pick?  That is my cutoff point for such a move.  Anything higher than a 3rd and I pass.

2.  If a Budda Baker deal does not come to pass, it would seem if we were hell bent on having such a player for our defense, a younger, equally alliterative version would be found in Alabama's rookie DB Brian Branch.  Cheaper?  Definitely.  But would he be as talented?  Do we have a coordinator creative enough to scheme him effectively?  On top of these concerns, I'm being troubled by the abundance of mock drafters on line who are projecting him to us-without a moments' thought.  Mock drafters not giving the Jaguars a moments thought js no big shock.  But rarely are so many on one accord when it comes to that player, rarer still is the player in accord with me.  It's to the point I'm tempted to revisisit my evaluation of the player.

3.  That said, even before this post, I was not married to the idea of Brian Branch for us at 24.  Besides the fact I think the team is more likely than in years' past to deal down, I think there are still likely to be a lot of viable options for us at 24 (assuming we stay) on either side of rhte ball.  On offense, There will likely be one of the TE prospects on the board.  Pederson had a lot of 2 TE sets in Philly.  Adding either Kincaid or Meyer or the kid from Georgia would restore the depth at the position for us, give us more personnel and formation versatility, and add another arrow in the quiver for TL and Pederson.  I would have to think if the right OL are remaining on the board, they could opt to replace Jawaan Taylor and maintain the three quality Ts on the roster, or even to upgrade Brian Bartch at G if Cyrus Torrence is still on the board at 24.

4.  I know it's still very early, but the Jaguars have to be the favorites to with the AFCS and the 49er have to be favorites to win the NFCW.  Buffahole could finish as low as 3rd in the AFC E, depending on what happens with the Jets and Aaron Rodgers.  I still think Tacks coach Mike Vrabel is an outstanding coach, but i am eager to see DeMeco Ryans for the Texans.  My gut tells me before long, this will be an excellent division in terms of coaching.

5.   I will go on the record now:  if the Georgia DT  is somehow still on the board whwn the Jaguaras are on the clock, I take the chance and pull the trigger and draft him.

I think Branch is an interesting prospect to fill this unique role of moving up into the slot/nickel position or playing deep centerfield when/if needed. My biggest concern with him though is his overall speed. It's not that I don't think he can handle it. My concern is when a team feels they have an advantage and can line-up a speed demon on him. His 4.5 speed is a concern. 

The other concern is can he stick and move with TE's like Kelce? Kittle?, etc? Those are the types of guys you often see in play-off contests or big games down the stretch with play-off implications on the line. I am not nearly as convinced as everybody else seems to be in the mock community. 

Regarding the TE and OG situation. I don't like the value there at 24. Not in this class. Even with Engram's situation lingering above the team. The fact of the matter is that he's at least here for another year. The TE class is too deep to bypass an adequate pass rusher or a solid CB2 with CB1 potential IMHO. Ideally, I would like to see a trade down if it comes down to having to select a TE there or Torrence. I was high on Torrence. I am not so high on him now. He's one dimensional and he has poor footwork from what I am hearing and he might not be a good fit here scheme wise. 

I would rather see Cam Smith at 24 or a top pass rusher that somehow slips like Murphy. I can tell you that I don't want anything to do with Bresee. He's the biggest boom/bust player there is in this year's draft. I am in agreement with Jalen Carter being the pick if he slips there. I still have concerns with his conditioning and decision making though as the recent turn of events have raised some serious questions regarding his longevity in the league. 

Coaching certainly looks better on paper across the division but the biggest question marks our three competitors have are at QB and until that's resolved I am really not all that concerned with any of them as long as Lawrence and Pederson are evolving together. I really feel like we have a Payton/Brees & Reid/Mahomes type combination on our hands. 

Back to the draft. For me, I pretty much laid out in the college forum what I was hoping for on the draft night. Which involves a trade down. However, if none of that happens? This would be my ideal draft with no trades below. 

24th - Lukas Van Ness - DT/EDGE - Iowa - Versatile scheme fit with 478 credited snaps split up with 242 times outside the tackles and 155 in the B-gap. Gives us breathing room because we all know we're more than likely losing Josh Allen in 2024's market and we need a compliment to Travon Walker. 

56th - Dawand Jones - OT - Ohio State - We need insurance as you cited above. Dawand is a MASSIVE insurance policy at 6'8, 374 pounds. I think he'll slip to us here because there was some concerns with his conditioning at his pro day but coming in for a year to work behind Robinson and Little and to get into NFL shape should bode well for 2024 and beyond. 

88th - Karl Brooks - DT/EDGE - Bowling Green - Another versatile scheme fit. Has the ability to play inside as a 3-Tech and outside. At 6'4, 300 pounds. He adds another healthy body to the rotation. Again, with this team having more than half of it's visiting choices dedicated to pass rushers? They're double dipping in this draft without a doubt. 

121st - Garrett Williams - CB - Syracuse - Here's that nickel CB everybody wants. Excited to see we actually visited with him. Big fan of what Syracuse's secondary did in general last year. Was another guy I brought up super early into the draft process. Fits a need. Offers great run support. 

127th - Anthony Bradford - OG - LSU - Another versatile lineman that can play OG/OT but projects better as an OG. For his size, 6'4, 332 pounds. He's a freak athlete. Scoring a 9.81 out of 10 on the RAS. Big guys with quick feet are coveted. This is an easy pick for me here. 

185th - Will Mallory - TE - Miami (FL) - Local prospect. Well rounded, coach's son for the position. Adds immediate depth and a solid run blocker to seal the edge with the ability to sneak out in the passing game inside the redzone. Love this selection here. Sneaky good pick here. 

202nd - Josh Whyle - TE - Cincinatti - Double dipping here at TE. Need the depth. Josh compares to basically Dan Arnold. Who we lost to free agency I believe. We still need competition here with Farrel backing up Engram and we need the bigger body types that can block and release to catch. Him and Mallory fit the mold for this in our system. 

208th - Andrei Iosivas - WR - Princeton - Good speed and size ratio. Solid production. Good camp body here with ST's capabilities and at least somebody you can slowly bring along the PS for development. 

226th - Trevor Reid - OT - Louisville - Another freak athlete that can play OT. Worthy of the pick here to develop. At this point late in the draft you're looking for athletes with high upside. Guys that can develop and hopefully backfill the bottom half of your roster in 2023 or early 2024. Iosivas and Reid fit the mold.
I am not sold on Van Ness just yet.  Haven't studied him much.  But to be honest, I am less jaded against him than I am the Clemson DE.,  Too many Clemson DEs have been abject failures in the NFL for me to take a chance on this guy.

As for Dawand Jones in Rd 2, I pass.  I firmly believe a player can be too big to succeed-even at T.  Jones was very big at the combine, and while he has shown better feet than other too big guys like Mike Williams, Aaron Gibson, et al, I still think he's too big to be a true success at RT.  I'd rather have the Tennessee RT first then come back and get a guy like Will McDonald in the 2nd.
Pass on Myles Murphy. I'd take Branch or Torrence over Murphy
(04-20-2023, 08:32 AM)Mikey Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-19-2023, 10:44 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]It's been a while since I've posted, so I figured I've spared you guys from my thoughts for long enough.  So with about a week to go until draft day, here are some pre draft musings...

1.  I think the speculations regarding the Jaguars supposed interest in Budda Baker are interesting on a few levels.  While he's a little older than I'd like, he still seems to have about 2-3 good years left.  With the lack of offense characteristic of the rest of the teams in our division, he would seem to be able to thrive here, assuming we can scheme him to give a reasonable reproduction of Pakers era LeRoy Butler or Troy Polamalu. We've never had that element in our defense before.  The closest we came was 1999 with a past his prime Carnell Lake, who came from the Steelers' scheme.  But making such a move is not wihout the potential risks.  Will he need another contract?  If so, how much?  WHat would the Cardinals want in draft choice compensation for him?  Are we talking above or below a 3rd round pick?  That is my cutoff point for such a move.  Anything higher than a 3rd and I pass.

2.  If a Budda Baker deal does not come to pass, it would seem if we were hell bent on having such a player for our defense, a younger, equally alliterative version would be found in Alabama's rookie DB Brian Branch.  Cheaper?  Definitely.  But would he be as talented?  Do we have a coordinator creative enough to scheme him effectively?  On top of these concerns, I'm being troubled by the abundance of mock drafters on line who are projecting him to us-without a moments' thought.  Mock drafters not giving the Jaguars a moments thought js no big shock.  But rarely are so many on one accord when it comes to that player, rarer still is the player in accord with me.  It's to the point I'm tempted to revisisit my evaluation of the player.

3.  That said, even before this post, I was not married to the idea of Brian Branch for us at 24.  Besides the fact I think the team is more likely than in years' past to deal down, I think there are still likely to be a lot of viable options for us at 24 (assuming we stay) on either side of rhte ball.  On offense, There will likely be one of the TE prospects on the board.  Pederson had a lot of 2 TE sets in Philly.  Adding either Kincaid or Meyer or the kid from Georgia would restore the depth at the position for us, give us more personnel and formation versatility, and add another arrow in the quiver for TL and Pederson.  I would have to think if the right OL are remaining on the board, they could opt to replace Jawaan Taylor and maintain the three quality Ts on the roster, or even to upgrade Brian Bartch at G if Cyrus Torrence is still on the board at 24.

4.  I know it's still very early, but the Jaguars have to be the favorites to with the AFCS and the 49er have to be favorites to win the NFCW.  Buffahole could finish as low as 3rd in the AFC E, depending on what happens with the Jets and Aaron Rodgers.  I still think Tacks coach Mike Vrabel is an outstanding coach, but i am eager to see DeMeco Ryans for the Texans.  My gut tells me before long, this will be an excellent division in terms of coaching.

5.   I will go on the record now:  if the Georgia DT  is somehow still on the board whwn the Jaguaras are on the clock, I take the chance and pull the trigger and draft him.

1-3 brings up an interesting scenario.  Which do y'all prefer?

Jags take a TE in RD 1, trade for Baker, Engram plays out his tag year and moves on

OR

Jags take Branch in RD 1, pass on Baker, sign Engram to a multi-year deal

Easily the first scenario, for several reasons.

First, just at face value, we walk away with 3 players, the Rd 1 TE, Engram (if only for a year) and Baker.  In the second scenario, we miss out on Baker and end up with only two players.

Second, the 1st scenario enables the Jaguars to run effective two TE sets in addition to the other matchup and personnel groupinggs our personnel would allow us to enjoy.  Scenario two only allows us to run nickel defense.

Question:  Why are we restricted to only one year with Engram in scenario 1?
(04-20-2023, 08:48 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-19-2023, 10:44 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]It's been a while since I've posted, so I figured I've spared you guys from my thoughts for long enough.  So with about a week to go until draft day, here are some pre draft musings...

1.  I think the speculations regarding the Jaguars supposed interest in Budda Baker are interesting on a few levels.  While he's a little older than I'd like, he still seems to have about 2-3 good years left.  With the lack of offense characteristic of the rest of the teams in our division, he would seem to be able to thrive here, assuming we can scheme him to give a reasonable reproduction of Pakers era LeRoy Butler or Troy Polamalu. We've never had that element in our defense before.  The closest we came was 1999 with a past his prime Carnell Lake, who came from the Steelers' scheme.  But making such a move is not wihout the potential risks.  Will he need another contract?  If so, how much?  WHat would the Cardinals want in draft choice compensation for him?  Are we talking above or below a 3rd round pick?  That is my cutoff point for such a move.  Anything higher than a 3rd and I pass.

2.  If a Budda Baker deal does not come to pass, it would seem if we were hell bent on having such a player for our defense, a younger, equally alliterative version would be found in Alabama's rookie DB Brian Branch.  Cheaper?  Definitely.  But would he be as talented?  Do we have a coordinator creative enough to scheme him effectively?  On top of these concerns, I'm being troubled by the abundance of mock drafters on line who are projecting him to us-without a moments' thought.  Mock drafters not giving the Jaguars a moments thought js no big shock.  But rarely are so many on one accord when it comes to that player, rarer still is the player in accord with me.  It's to the point I'm tempted to revisisit my evaluation of the player.

3.  That said, even before this post, I was not married to the idea of Brian Branch for us at 24.  Besides the fact I think the team is more likely than in years' past to deal down, I think there are still likely to be a lot of viable options for us at 24 (assuming we stay) on either side of rhte ball.  On offense, There will likely be one of the TE prospects on the board.  Pederson had a lot of 2 TE sets in Philly.  Adding either Kincaid or Meyer or the kid from Georgia would restore the depth at the position for us, give us more personnel and formation versatility, and add another arrow in the quiver for TL and Pederson.  I would have to think if the right OL are remaining on the board, they could opt to replace Jawaan Taylor and maintain the three quality Ts on the roster, or even to upgrade Brian Bartch at G if Cyrus Torrence is still on the board at 24.

4.  I know it's still very early, but the Jaguars have to be the favorites to with the AFCS and the 49er have to be favorites to win the NFCW.  Buffahole could finish as low as 3rd in the AFC E, depending on what happens with the Jets and Aaron Rodgers.  I still think Tacks coach Mike Vrabel is an outstanding coach, but i am eager to see DeMeco Ryans for the Texans.  My gut tells me before long, this will be an excellent division in terms of coaching.

5.   I will go on the record now:  if the Georgia DT  is somehow still on the board whwn the Jaguaras are on the clock, I take the chance and pull the trigger and draft him.
First, welcome back! You da GOAT.

Second, I think trading down in this years draft will be exceptionally difficult because it's a fairly weak draft in terms of talent. The Bills said they have very few first round grades in this class. If it were busting with talent, I think a trade down would be really simple but I just don't see a player teams would be dying to trade up for at 24.
Dunno about the GOAT, but thanks for the welcome back.  Glad to read you guys.

The former Vikings' GM- Spielman-said he has about 16-17 guys with true first round grades.  That said, trading back is always easier said than done.  The odds od us trading back would all depend on individual team likes/needs.
(04-20-2023, 01:29 PM)TheDogCatcher Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-20-2023, 01:24 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]I think they were different types of players, based upon how they were utilized in their schemes.  Despite his size and tackling/hitting acumen, I don't think DD was utilized as much in the box as Lake was in Pittsburgh or his one year in Jacksonville.  I think D was used as much as a traditional S down the field (think Kyle Brady and Robert Ferguson hits) as opposed to more of an in the box S like LeRoy Butler was in Green Bay.  Lake, because of the scheme, was used more like Butler in Green Bay, with a lot of blitzes and in the box.  I think DD was a physical punisher/enforcer in the run game and in the deep secondary.  Butler and Lake were more catalysts=less enforcers/intimidators than DD.  They'd get more hits on QBs, etc.  All of them were outstanding players, but utilized differently.  For the sake of public safety, it's a good thing DD wasn't utilized like Butler.  Could you imagine him coming clean on a blitz and getting a hit on a QB?!?

I remember vividly one game I attended. DD stopped LaDanian Tomlinson cold early in the game on a screen or bubble pass, and LT was not a factor afterward. On offense, Leftwich had a rare good performance; Chargers DE Marcelius Wiley later commented that what Leftwich did to the Chargers defense was "uncivilized." A roided out looking David Boston was the Chargers lone bright spot. He caught several passes.

I remember that game.  After that hit on Tomlinson, Tomlinson was not a factor for the rest of the game.

I tell you, for all of JDR's faults, he made dam sure the run defense was up to snuff.  It sure was in that game.
(04-20-2023, 08:48 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-19-2023, 10:44 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]It's been a while since I've posted, so I figured I've spared you guys from my thoughts for long enough.  So with about a week to go until draft day, here are some pre draft musings...

1.  I think the speculations regarding the Jaguars supposed interest in Budda Baker are interesting on a few levels.  While he's a little older than I'd like, he still seems to have about 2-3 good years left.  With the lack of offense characteristic of the rest of the teams in our division, he would seem to be able to thrive here, assuming we can scheme him to give a reasonable reproduction of Pakers era LeRoy Butler or Troy Polamalu. We've never had that element in our defense before.  The closest we came was 1999 with a past his prime Carnell Lake, who came from the Steelers' scheme.  But making such a move is not wihout the potential risks.  Will he need another contract?  If so, how much?  WHat would the Cardinals want in draft choice compensation for him?  Are we talking above or below a 3rd round pick?  That is my cutoff point for such a move.  Anything higher than a 3rd and I pass.

2.  If a Budda Baker deal does not come to pass, it would seem if we were hell bent on having such a player for our defense, a younger, equally alliterative version would be found in Alabama's rookie DB Brian Branch.  Cheaper?  Definitely.  But would he be as talented?  Do we have a coordinator creative enough to scheme him effectively?  On top of these concerns, I'm being troubled by the abundance of mock drafters on line who are projecting him to us-without a moments' thought.  Mock drafters not giving the Jaguars a moments thought js no big shock.  But rarely are so many on one accord when it comes to that player, rarer still is the player in accord with me.  It's to the point I'm tempted to revisisit my evaluation of the player.

3.  That said, even before this post, I was not married to the idea of Brian Branch for us at 24.  Besides the fact I think the team is more likely than in years' past to deal down, I think there are still likely to be a lot of viable options for us at 24 (assuming we stay) on either side of rhte ball.  On offense, There will likely be one of the TE prospects on the board.  Pederson had a lot of 2 TE sets in Philly.  Adding either Kincaid or Meyer or the kid from Georgia would restore the depth at the position for us, give us more personnel and formation versatility, and add another arrow in the quiver for TL and Pederson.  I would have to think if the right OL are remaining on the board, they could opt to replace Jawaan Taylor and maintain the three quality Ts on the roster, or even to upgrade Brian Bartch at G if Cyrus Torrence is still on the board at 24.

4.  I know it's still very early, but the Jaguars have to be the favorites to with the AFCS and the 49er have to be favorites to win the NFCW.  Buffahole could finish as low as 3rd in the AFC E, depending on what happens with the Jets and Aaron Rodgers.  I still think Tacks coach Mike Vrabel is an outstanding coach, but i am eager to see DeMeco Ryans for the Texans.  My gut tells me before long, this will be an excellent division in terms of coaching.

5.   I will go on the record now:  if the Georgia DT  is somehow still on the board whwn the Jaguaras are on the clock, I take the chance and pull the trigger and draft him.
First, welcome back! You da GOAT.

Second, I think trading down in this years draft will be exceptionally difficult because it's a fairly weak draft in terms of talent. The Bills said they have very few first round grades in this class. If it were busting with talent, I think a trade down would be really simple but I just don't see a player teams would be dying to trade up for at 24.

Scarcity and need could work to our advantage.  If there's a team in desperate need of a tackle the guy on the board doesn't have to be Walter Jones, they just have to be the last one with a starter grade in this year's class.  24s a good spot for that.  We might not get another first, but if we pick up a third that could be a nickel back.
I think I'd rather draft Branch than trade/pay for Budda. Obviously Budda is the far better player right now, but you'd have to give up what, at least a 2nd round pick? Hes got two years left on his contract. A $16.8m cap hit this year and a $17.9m cap hit next year. It's also rumored that he wants a new deal? I'd just rather save the money and the draft pick, or two and go in a different direction. Build it through the draft.

How long they wait to take a TE will be interesting to see. They have to come away from this draft with at least 1 of them. I wouldn't be against taking one in the 1st round, but then the question becomes about how much will he be on the field. Ridley, Kirk, Engram, Zay are pretty much a lock in 4 wide. ETN can bounce out as a receiver at any time as well.

Engram played 77% of the Offensive snaps and Manhertz played 38% Off snaps. Farrell 9% and Arnold 15%. Who do you trust more to step up into the Manhertz role? Farrell or a rookie? I don't know if there will be enough two+ TE sets to justify taking a TE in the 1st. Unless of course they plan for it to be an Engram replacement after the season.

If Carter is still on the board at 24, I'd take him. I don't think he will be, but I could deal with the possible bust risk with a pick that low. Definitely has some pretty good sized red flags, but you can't deny the talent.
(04-20-2023, 10:23 PM)Eric1 Wrote: [ -> ]I think I'd rather draft Branch than trade/pay for Budda. Obviously Budda is the far better player right now, but you'd have to give up what, at least a 2nd round pick? Hes got two years left on his contract. A $16.8m cap hit this year and a $17.9m cap hit next year. It's also rumored that he wants a new deal? I'd just rather save the money and the draft pick, or two and go in a different direction. Build it through the draft.

How long they wait to take a TE will be interesting to see. They have to come away from this draft with at least 1 of them. I wouldn't be against taking one in the 1st round, but then the question becomes about how much will he be on the field. Ridley, Kirk, Engram, Zay are pretty much a lock in 4 wide. ETN can bounce out as a receiver at any time as well.

Engram played 77% of the Offensive snaps and Manhertz played 38% Off snaps. Farrell 9% and Arnold 15%. Who do you trust more to step up into the Manhertz role? Farrell or a rookie? I don't know if there will be enough two+ TE sets to justify taking a TE in the 1st. Unless of course they plan for it to be an Engram replacement after the season.

If Carter is still on the board at 24, I'd take him. I don't think he will be, but I could deal with the possible bust risk with a pick that low. Definitely has some pretty good sized red flags, but you can't deny the talent.
I'm not sure I want either guy.  Yes, they are good players.  But I've seen no evidence we'd utilize them similarly to the way the Packers utilized LeRoy Buler, the Steelers used Lake and Polamalu to get the most out of either player.  If you went back to the Jauron era of our defense in the team's formative years, you'd see ample evidence of what wasted/non/under utilized talent looks like.  I don't want our defense to go back to those days.
(04-20-2023, 07:18 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-20-2023, 08:30 AM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]I think Branch is an interesting prospect to fill this unique role of moving up into the slot/nickel position or playing deep centerfield when/if needed. My biggest concern with him though is his overall speed. It's not that I don't think he can handle it. My concern is when a team feels they have an advantage and can line-up a speed demon on him. His 4.5 speed is a concern. 

The other concern is can he stick and move with TE's like Kelce? Kittle?, etc? Those are the types of guys you often see in play-off contests or big games down the stretch with play-off implications on the line. I am not nearly as convinced as everybody else seems to be in the mock community. 

Regarding the TE and OG situation. I don't like the value there at 24. Not in this class. Even with Engram's situation lingering above the team. The fact of the matter is that he's at least here for another year. The TE class is too deep to bypass an adequate pass rusher or a solid CB2 with CB1 potential IMHO. Ideally, I would like to see a trade down if it comes down to having to select a TE there or Torrence. I was high on Torrence. I am not so high on him now. He's one dimensional and he has poor footwork from what I am hearing and he might not be a good fit here scheme wise. 

I would rather see Cam Smith at 24 or a top pass rusher that somehow slips like Murphy. I can tell you that I don't want anything to do with Bresee. He's the biggest boom/bust player there is in this year's draft. I am in agreement with Jalen Carter being the pick if he slips there. I still have concerns with his conditioning and decision making though as the recent turn of events have raised some serious questions regarding his longevity in the league. 

Coaching certainly looks better on paper across the division but the biggest question marks our three competitors have are at QB and until that's resolved I am really not all that concerned with any of them as long as Lawrence and Pederson are evolving together. I really feel like we have a Payton/Brees & Reid/Mahomes type combination on our hands. 

Back to the draft. For me, I pretty much laid out in the college forum what I was hoping for on the draft night. Which involves a trade down. However, if none of that happens? This would be my ideal draft with no trades below. 

24th - Lukas Van Ness - DT/EDGE - Iowa - Versatile scheme fit with 478 credited snaps split up with 242 times outside the tackles and 155 in the B-gap. Gives us breathing room because we all know we're more than likely losing Josh Allen in 2024's market and we need a compliment to Travon Walker. 

56th - Dawand Jones - OT - Ohio State - We need insurance as you cited above. Dawand is a MASSIVE insurance policy at 6'8, 374 pounds. I think he'll slip to us here because there was some concerns with his conditioning at his pro day but coming in for a year to work behind Robinson and Little and to get into NFL shape should bode well for 2024 and beyond. 

88th - Karl Brooks - DT/EDGE - Bowling Green - Another versatile scheme fit. Has the ability to play inside as a 3-Tech and outside. At 6'4, 300 pounds. He adds another healthy body to the rotation. Again, with this team having more than half of it's visiting choices dedicated to pass rushers? They're double dipping in this draft without a doubt. 

121st - Garrett Williams - CB - Syracuse - Here's that nickel CB everybody wants. Excited to see we actually visited with him. Big fan of what Syracuse's secondary did in general last year. Was another guy I brought up super early into the draft process. Fits a need. Offers great run support. 

127th - Anthony Bradford - OG - LSU - Another versatile lineman that can play OG/OT but projects better as an OG. For his size, 6'4, 332 pounds. He's a freak athlete. Scoring a 9.81 out of 10 on the RAS. Big guys with quick feet are coveted. This is an easy pick for me here. 

185th - Will Mallory - TE - Miami (FL) - Local prospect. Well rounded, coach's son for the position. Adds immediate depth and a solid run blocker to seal the edge with the ability to sneak out in the passing game inside the redzone. Love this selection here. Sneaky good pick here. 

202nd - Josh Whyle - TE - Cincinatti - Double dipping here at TE. Need the depth. Josh compares to basically Dan Arnold. Who we lost to free agency I believe. We still need competition here with Farrel backing up Engram and we need the bigger body types that can block and release to catch. Him and Mallory fit the mold for this in our system. 

208th - Andrei Iosivas - WR - Princeton - Good speed and size ratio. Solid production. Good camp body here with ST's capabilities and at least somebody you can slowly bring along the PS for development. 

226th - Trevor Reid - OT - Louisville - Another freak athlete that can play OT. Worthy of the pick here to develop. At this point late in the draft you're looking for athletes with high upside. Guys that can develop and hopefully backfill the bottom half of your roster in 2023 or early 2024. Iosivas and Reid fit the mold.
I am not sold on Van Ness just yet.  Haven't studied him much.  But to be honest, I am less jaded against him than I am the Clemson DE.,  Too many Clemson DEs have been abject failures in the NFL for me to take a chance on this guy.

As for Dawand Jones in Rd 2, I pass.  I firmly believe a player can be too big to succeed-even at T.  Jones was very big at the combine, and while he has shown better feet than other too big guys like Mike Williams, Aaron Gibson, et al, I still think he's too big to be a true success at RT.  I'd rather have the Tennessee RT first then come back and get a guy like Will McDonald in the 2nd.

Van Ness is strong as hell. Manhandled Ohio St's Paris Johnson Jr. in a few contests and he's supposed to be one of the top OT's to come off the board next Thursday. I like the fact that he's lined up all over the line and has shown flashes and consistency attacking the OT and interior. 

Would be an excellent compliment to Walker and we have to prepare for life without Josh Allen more than likely post 2023. Dawand I think can be whipped into shape. He just has certain traits you can't teach nor coach. Which is his obvious size and his quick feet. 

As a 1B alternative in RD1 and RD2. These would also be my favorite fallback options if we can't land Van Ness nor Jones in RD1 and RD2 respectively. 

I would take Isaiah Foskey out of Notre Dame with the 24th overall selection and not lose much sleep over it if we truly desire and seek a pass rusher early next Thursday. Foskey has been a very damn good consistent presence over the last two years for the golden domers. Would be hard pressed to find another prospect as consistently as good as he's been. 

With the 56th selection. I would opt for a guard there instead of a tackle if Jones is off the board. I truly covet Cody Mauch there. I just don't see him being there for us unfortunately. With that said. I would take Joe Tippmann or Luke Wypler and plug them in at LG as rookies. Tippmann especially. Both of these guys played Center in college and they played it relatively well. We have Fortner already in this role but adding a strong, versatile guy right next to him with the eyes of a Center seems like a damn good idea there. 

24th - Isaiah Foskey
56th - Joe Tippmann
I think I said this a couple months ago but this draft is going to be wild from start to finish.

I think we see lots of perceived reaches, players falling and tons of questionable picks. The top end talent is weak but there are a lot of players with round 2/3 grades.
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